1 hour ago, Poet said:

I do not understand this thinking.

Say we accept the premise that, as the vaccination schemes continue in most Western countries, they are heading towards what Israel has already achieved: 10 new infections per million per day, which meets the "zero-covid" standard set by countries such as Singapore and South Korea.

We also know that the vaccines also reduce transmissability by 66%, so, a planeful of tourists flying in from a zero-covid country poses almost no biological risk to the Thai population, certainly far less than the uncontrolled flow of migrants over land borders from neighbouring countries.

We also know that most countries will be rolling out their "digital covid certification" and online verification portals during June.

Given that an exotic vacation is one of the first things that fully-innoculated citizens of those Western countries will want, and given that they have spent a year saving and paying off their credit card debt, and given that the airlines are eagerly waiting to take their expensive planes out of storage and start flying again ...

... given all that, why, exactly, would millions of tourists not want to start flying into Thailand again, and why would Thailand not want these perfectly safe visitors come and save all these hotels on the verge of bankruptcy.

I am not saying that they will get back up to their peak numbers this year but this coming high season could easily be busier than 2019.

 

The problem with your numbers is  that you are extremely optimistic

 

 

No any country in the world has  yet reached the famous ''herd imunity''

Even Israel, one of the country with the most vaccinated population 

is at 60% and have now problems (for various reasons) to go over this number

 

How many years before Thailand reaches this number of 60% ?

In 1 year they have vaccinated around 1 million, and they are 70 millions

 

You write 10 infections per day per million is considered like ''zero covid''

it will be 70 infections\day in Thailand (Population=70M) and i doubt

this number will be considered in Thailand like 0 covid

they are totally paranoid with this virus and obsessed with the illusion of a goal of 0 cases

 

You write the vaccines reduce transmibility by 66%

What vaccines? Certainly not Sinovac, so far the most used in Thailand

and what about the new variants of the virus, like the india one?

 

Also how many time the protection given by the vaccine is effective?

If it's 6 months or 1 year, it means you have to re-vaccine everyone with a boost even before to having vaccinated all of your population

 

So far there is no precise answer to all of these important questions.

 

The international digital covid certification and online verification portal  effective in june? I don't hold my breath, maybe in june 2025 for Thailand where so far they are still using paper and photocopies in most of the administratives process

 

There is also the problem of the families tourists not being able to flight

iirc the children under the age of 10 can not be vaccinated, but they

can catch the virus, so the only tourists allowed in Thailand will be the adults?

 

And what sort of Thailand the tourists are going to discover when they return?

It has been already 1 year without any international tourism, and half of the infrastructure has already definitively closed. 1 more year and near nothing will stay to welcome them

not enough hotels, not enough restaurants, not enough entertainment, not enough transport...

 

If it's only to stay on a beach and having a sun bath, the european tourist will prefer Greece (Already open for tourists) or Spain, closer and cheaper without all the hassles of a long haul and the visas concern

The tourists of america will probably prefer the caribean, closer and cheaper without all the hassles of the long haul and the  visas problems.

 

Then the only ''tourists'' coming should be the chinese tours and few die hard western punters

it's better than nothing but i don't see Thailand making a lot of money on both

 

Honestly the prediction of a return of few of the tourists in 2023 sounds more realistic imo

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by kingofthemountain

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Marisa Sukosolnunphakdee said

I thought only Welsh had names like that.......glad I don't have to write her any letters.....

1 hour ago, ozfarang said:

This is what Agoda says regarding occupancy next week. You just have to induce the punters to be quick or prices will go up.

BS

 

Which hotel was that?

Dirty Harry on soi 6?

 

Asking for Bill, a friend of mine.

You need a little serendipity story amongst all of this.....

 

In Chiang Mai, two older, getting seedy hotels -- the Pornping and the Mae Ping -- decided pre Covid to close down for several years and renovate into five-star positions (their geographic locations were already prime). So, they did. Thus, all that pre-planned negative cash flow just nicely matched all the potential negative un-planned cash flow from Covid. Serendipity, indeed.

 

Anyway, hope Mae Ping takes the form they're advertising -- InterContinental is now onboard with its planning. Always my favorite, since I stayed there 30 years ago.

2 minutes ago, JimGant said:

You need a little serendipity story amongst all of this.....

 

In Chiang Mai, two older, getting seedy hotels -- the Pornping and the Mae Ping -- decided pre Covid to close down for several years and renovate into five-star positions (their geographic locations were already prime). So, they did. Thus, all that pre-planned negative cash flow just nicely matched all the potential negative un-planned cash flow from Covid. Serendipity, indeed.

 

Anyway, hope Mae Ping takes the form they're advertising -- InterContinental is now onboard with its planning. Always my favorite, since I stayed there 30 years ago.

Pornping sounds great.

Have to google them.

Probably most TV members do the same and soon Agoda will say: "Hurry up, very popular on your requested dates". Occupancy rate at 125%.

1 minute ago, AlfHuy said:

Pornping sounds great.

Have to google them.

Probably most TV members do the same and soon Agoda will say: "Hurry up, very popular on your requested dates". Occupancy rate at 125%.

????????????

1 hour ago, Andy from Kent said:

 

 

I've hear others extoll the virtues of speaking Thai but I never heard it's helpful in  avoiding COVID-19.  ????

Maybe, but what language does Covid speak?

Total occupancy in the organisation's hotels was at 5%.

 

Does that mean 5 % of rooms in all the organisation's hotels or 5% rooms in just the hotels that remain open ?  I think the latter

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Israel is an outlier rather than a reference.

 

It is very unlikely that the vast majority of countries will repeat Israel's performance.

Israel is, absolutely, a reference for what happens when you get a sufficient number of your population vaccinated with a good vaccine (as opposed the Chinese vaccine they are using in Chile).

The current 10 infections per million that Israel is now getting is precisely what other countries will get when they vaccinate a sufficient portion of their populations to place a natural brake on the spread of the virus.
 

 

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

On top of that, remember that, according to the vaccine manufacturers themselves, the vaccines are efficient for only 6 months, meaning that the whole vaccination campaign will have to be repeated indefinitely.

The best guess is that the immunity will last two years but, so far, we have only confirmed nine months because we only have nine months of data.

Whether or not the vaccination campaign is irrelevant to the question of whether tourists will be able to come to Thailand.

 

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Then, there are other issues beside the Covid pandemic, such as fighting climate change and the implementation of the infamous Great Reset, both of which are not in favour of mass tourism.

Oh, I see. Okay. If Covid is a massive conspiracy, fair enough, that would certainly prevent the resumption of mass tourism. Of course, to believe that, you would also have to have fallen fairly far down the rabbithole ????

 

45 minutes ago, sanuk711 said:

I thought only Welsh had names like that.......glad I don't have to write her any letters.....

Like Jones & Evans you mean?

5 minutes ago, Poet said:

Whether or not the vaccination campaign is irrelevant to the question of whether tourists will be able to come to Thailand.

I think of the contrary, the 2 problems are closely related

1 hour ago, lkv said:

The majority of Europeans have no clue where Thailand is on the map, they travel to Spain and Greece.

Thailand is actually has extraordinarily high mindshare among people all over the world. They are one of the world's strongest tourism brands.
 

1 hour ago, lkv said:

The only reason some of them went to Thailand before, is because airfares got ridiculously cheap, i.e 300-400 pounds/euro return, and hotels / food were also cheap. So they thought they could have a more exotic vacation at the same cost.

Well, for short-term (2 - 4 week) visitors, Thailand is still cheaper when you include the cost of hotels, food etc and delivers more value. Airfares are still pretty cheap and, with the rise of the Middle-Eastern "hub-and-spoke" airlines, there are now fast routes from far more European cities.

Yes, of course, it is more expensive than it was ten years ago, but everything is. Also, inflation is about to go crazy anyway. Coming out of Covid, most people are going to prioritize experiences and, on that score, Thailand still delivers far more value than Spain or Greece.

 

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by Poet

4 minutes ago, Poet said:

Thailand still delivers far more value than Spain or Greece.

I am not sure about that and i will be pleased if you can elaborate

i mean the food is better, the wine cheaper, the sea less polluted

in Spain or Greece than in Thailand, and the cultural attraction is not even close

if you take the girls out of the equation, what exactly Thailand has that the 2 others countries havent?

1 hour ago, kingofthemountain said:

So far there is no precise answer to all of these important questions.

I have been following the news very closely, because I am in a related industry, and solid answers have emerged for what I believe to be all the major questions.

As far as I understand it now, there is nothing to stop fully-innoculated tourists (with Western or Russian vaccines) from zero-covid countries flying into even poorly vaccinated countries, as soon as the verification schemes roll-out in June.

We just have to wait to see if, for example, the UK will have by the end of June, as I am predicting, vaccinated 80% of their adult population, reached "zero-covid" levels, and successfully rolled out their verification system. That will give Thailand time to drop quarantine for UK visitors and to gear up for a full high season.

The end of June is only 8 weeks away. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. We'll see.

 

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by Poet

40 minutes ago, BostonRob2 said:

Maybe, but what language does Covid speak?

Chinese.

9 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

If you take the girls out of the equation, what exactly Thailand has that the 2 others countries havent?

Why are you taking the girls out of the equation! Put them back, immediately!!!

 

10 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

i mean the food is better, the wine cheaper, the sea less polluted

in Spain or Greece than in Thailand, and the cultural attraction is not even close

I am a huge fan of Spain, and actually prefer the restaurants. I often think that I might prefer to live in Spain. Important factors are air quality, pollution generally, road safety, standard of medical care, free medical care as a European, lack of corruption relative to S.E. Asia, far better social outlets and activities.

For a post-covid vacation, however, Thailand is simply a more exotic experience. Spain might be more culturally-enriched, but Thailand is clearly a different universe. Your experiences, your memories, your photos over a two-week vacation will all be wilder than the same in same.

Yes, in the longer-term, all the typical Thai stuff gets old quickly, but for a post-Covid escape, it will probably be the best and most desired option for tens of millions of people.

2 hours ago, Poet said:

Given that an exotic vacation is one of the first things that fully-innoculated citizens of those Western countries will want, and given that they have spent a year saving and paying off their credit card debt, and given that the airlines are eagerly waiting to take their expensive planes out of storage and start flying again ...

... given all that, why, exactly, would millions of tourists not want to start flying into Thailand again, and why would Thailand not want these perfectly safe visitors come and save all these hotels on the verge of bankruptcy.

50-75% of the UK is out of money, combination of COVID, Brexit and Zero hour contracts.

It used to cost me $60 to fly to Spain, but it was $600 to fly to Thailand.

Not worthwhile as a tourist, but as a retired person only 3 flights in 12 years.

 

If it wasn't for hookers, I wouldn't have even thought of coming to Thailand.

As an old retired Brit now a bit too old for the girls, I'd probably choose to be living in France in a rundown farmhouse, eating bread and cheese, drinking $1 a bottle wine, and growing cannabis in my barn.

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by BritManToo

8 minutes ago, Poet said:

As far as I understand it now, there is nothing to stop fully-innoculated tourists (with Western or Russian vaccines) from zero-covid countries flying into even poorly vaccinated countries, as soon as the verification schemes roll-out in June.

IF ........... so far all the plans, from all the countries have come to nothing.

I'm fully expecting the UK and Europe to go into a new mad lockdown before then, as a new gene therapy resistant variant rears it's ugly head.

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by BritManToo

14 minutes ago, Poet said:

We just have to wait to see if, for example, the UK will have by the end of June, as I am predicting, vaccinated 80% of their adult population, reached "zero-covid" levels, and successfully rolled out their verification system. That will give Thailand time to drop quarantine for UK visitors and to gear up for a full high season.

As we have already seen, Thailand can indeed drop the quarantine from 14 days to 7, then all of a sudden up the same quarantine in less than few hours from 7 days to 14

 

considering this degree of uncertainty, and even if the quarantine for UK tourists was dropped in the end of june, how many of them do you think will be able to plan a holiday in Thailand for july and august?

 

I have few friends in France used to come in Thailand on a regular basis, for this summer they have ALL already booked their summer holidays to other destinations, in France or in european countries, it was much more easy and less risky, and at the end less costly than their usual trip in Thailand

As i said the only thing they are going to miss is the Thai girls

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by kingofthemountain

4 minutes ago, Poet said:

Yes, in the longer-term, all the typical Thai stuff gets old quickly, but for a post-Covid escape, it will probably be the best and most desired option for tens of millions of people.

Yes, for a post covid escape, when the pandemic is declared over, in 2023-2025.

 

Until then, people need more predictibility, and on June 26th, the EU is rolling out the digital green certificate, where you can travel with no headaches if you are vaccinated and less headaches (antigen/pcr test), if you are not.

 

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

50-75% of the UK is out of money, combination of COVID, Brexit and Zero hour contracts.

The category of people on zero-hour contracts are the not the same category who tend to take more exotic vacations.

Most categories of knowledge workers kept on working, kept on getting paid, didn't have much to spend it on, have now missed 3 or 4 vacations that they would usually take.

Many people got paid to not work at all.

Even the folks on hourly work had an unprecented amount of delivery jobs.

Seriously, the bill for all this will be massive, but people do actually have money at the moment. The problem comes when the benefits get reduced back to what they were, and the corporation start laying off all the staff they have now discovered the don't need.

 

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It used to cost me $60 to fly to Spain, but it was $600 to fly to Thailand.

Easily saved on the cheaper cost of the hotels and restaurants.
 

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

If it wasn't for hookers, I wouldn't have even thought of coming to Thailand.

Yeah, that is undoubtedly what it boils down to. My version of that is dating or having regular relationships, and the quality of woman I can have here is infinitely higher than it would be in Spain.

 

11 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

As an old retired Brit now a bit too old for the girls, I'd probably choose to be living in France in a rundown farmhouse, eating bread and cheese, drinking $1 a bottle wine, and growing cannabis in my barn.

Yes, I can see the attractive of that. I don't even care all that much about the alcohol anymore, but having fresh air, a reasonably temperate climate, high-quality food, and being left the Hell alone with my books, music, and pot appeals more than playing the role of falang for the next few decades.
 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

return to normal in 2023. 

 

Would add 5 years on to that, personally. 

 

Possibly 10. 

 

 

40 million tourists in 2019. 

 

When are 40 million tourists going to have the disposable money, the opportunity and desire to holiday here, even if the restrictions of travel are all but done away with. 

29 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

IF ........... so far all the plans, from all the countries have come to nothing.

You are behind on your news. EU voted through their proposal last Thursday and it is now going into beta, for EU-wide roll-out in June. They had already been in negotiations with there US counterparts for months, to ensure inoperability. No doubt the UK will launch a week earlier, just to rub it in. Israel has already had its version going for six weeks and several countries, including Ireland, are letting them skip quarantine.

Whatever might be said in public, all those in government have known that some secure way to verify innoculation status was the only way that international travel was going to happen.

 

29 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I'm fully expecting the UK and Europe to go into a new mad lockdown before then, as a new gene therapy resistant variant rears it's ugly head.

Well, are you suggesting that the whole thing is being staged and that the governments actually want some pretext to lockdown again?

So far, the Western vaccines are all effective against all the variants so far, including the Indian one which is currenty being used by the British government and media to stop citizens getting too relaxed now that the end appears to be in sight.

 

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by Poet

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The few hotels around us that closed last March (2020) are still shuttered.  One wonders how a large company like Marriot or Aetas can afford to have these buildings shuttered and still pay staff to come in and clean them as well as paying the security guards who attend to the building as well as the one or two engineers who are needed to ensure everything continues to work.  On the flip side the power usage and water usage is down tremendously.  The pools are still being serviced at those locations as well as I can see them from my Condos Balconies, and I wonder why they just do not drain them.  I would venture to guess that soon they will be out of liquidity and these buildings will be on the commercial real estate sales listings.

You shouldn't drain the pool long term. The heat and strong sun will crack the tiles.

Smaller hotels will suffer badly.

Bigger hotels who have associations with tour companies and travel agencies might see some growth Q4 2021 / Q1 2022, but by no means the levels pre-covid.

Hotels have been approached to be quarantine facilities. Closure of restaurants and ban on banquets + little compensation from govt vs paying staff salaries vs laying staff off, needs to be considered. 

The powers that be have far more interest in buying submarines and tanks instead of helping hotels and restaurants in catastrophic financial hardship.

Its every man for themselves in survival mode. By not announcing an official lockdown means they aren't liable to help.

May God have mercy on Thailand if the country doesn't open by Q4 this year!

21 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

considering this degree of uncertainty, and even if the quarantine for UK tourists was dropped in the end of june, how many of them do you think will be able to plan a holiday in Thailand for july and august?

I think Thailand will announce "July 1st / the second half of the year" and, yes, that will lead to a rush of people who have been waiting to get in without quarantine, but the main target will be the people who, in July, will see that things have normalized and will then book for October, November, December.

 

23 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

I have few friends in France used to come in Thailand on a regular basis, for this summer they have ALL already booked their summer holidays to other destinations, in France or in european countries, it was much more easy and less risky, and at the end less costly than their usual trip in Thailand

As i said the only thing they are going to miss is the Thai girls

They will take their summer vacation and, then, they will come visit some Thai girls in November too. This is a special time for everyone.

 

5 minutes ago, Poet said:

They will take their summer vacation and, then, they will come visit some Thai girls in November too. This is a special time for everyone.

 

Not if they impose silly restrictions such as COE's, insurances, quarantines, tests, green zones, and so on, which don't really help the tourist relax.

 

It's a bit too much just to get some p#@sy 10,000 kms away.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023. 

Given that reduced quarantine and the promise of Area Qurantine in Phuket have been knocked on the head, this is probably the most accurate statement I've seen so far.

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Israel is an outlier rather than a reference.

 

It is very unlikely that the vast majority of countries will repeat Israel's performance.

 

On top of that, remember that, according to the vaccine manufacturers themselves, the vaccines are efficient for only 6 months, meaning that the whole vaccination campaign will have to be repeated indefinitely.

 

Then, there are other issues beside the Covid pandemic, such as fighting climate change and the implementation of the infamous Great Reset, both of which are not in favour of mass tourism.

 

Instead of a return to the happy days of 2019, one should rather expect a lengthy march toward 1984 (not the year, if you see what I mean).

 

 

 

Some fake news in this post.

 

Vaccine manufacturers have said AT LEAST 6 months efficacy. The truth is that they don't know as they have  only been testing for 6-7 months. It could well be 1 year, it could well be more. Boosters to combat new variants will be given annually.

 

Sincerely

 

MORRIS

4 hours ago, webfact said:

80% of their hotels would be shut until October when it is hoped that the pandemic will show signs of abating and the vaccine rollout will be in full swing.

 

She indicated that only larger hotels were open and that hotels that catered to foreign tourists were all shut down for now. 

 

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023. 

Some truth at last.

18 minutes ago, KhunMorris said:

 

Some fake news in this post.

 

Vaccine manufacturers have said AT LEAST 6 months efficacy. The truth is that they don't know as they have  only been testing for 6-7 months. It could well be 1 year, it could well be more. Boosters to combat new variants will be given annually.

 

Sincerely

 

MORRIS

For you, "could well be" is hard news, while "valid 6 months" is fake news because? you know better than Pfizer's CEO who said a couple of weeks ago that a booster shot will probably be required after 6 months?

Edited May 4, 20215 yr by Brunolem