2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Common sense tells us that if a positivity rate is derived from testing of a limited area, then the rate only tells us about that area. Right now, mass testing is confined to clusters in Bangkok. And yes, some of the clusters are bad. But that’s just the clusters, not all of Bangkok.

 

as a sanity test, we will see how the numbers of the general population evolve over the next days. I foresee a random walk, up and down movement along a narrow range.

 

i won’t ask you about your prediction, since you will refer me to a post you made last Wednesday. But since you always disagree with my predictions, if I am right, then by default you are wrong. Of course, you will evoke the prison numbers, if the general population figures continue to flatline.

BKK Brian 348 - Village Idiot 0

3,382 new #COVID19 infections and 17 more deaths recorded in #Thailand today.

#ThaiPBSWorld #ThailandNews #ThailandUpdate

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1396273381599694850

 

4 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

BKK Brian 348 - Village Idiot 0

You should remember that I have been predicting a random walk, with the numbers staying within a limited range, whereas Brian has constantly predicted some vague catastrophe, and therefore has been the opposite of correct.

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

 And yes, some of the clusters are bad. But that’s just the clusters, not all of Bangkok.

 

Who ever said the whole of Bangkok was bad, it does not have to be bad in every single soi, community and district? 

 

London as a comparison when it was at its worst, there were plenty of districts that showing 1% positivity while others showing 10 - 20%. Yet it was ravaged.

 

Bangkok is in a very serious position right now.

 

You've repeatably stated that the situation has peaked and have been continuing that stance for over 3 weeks.

 

Yet its proved time and time again just how wrong you are, how many community infections today?

 

Oh new peak by any chance? "2,992"

14 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/330672188551112

 

The number of prison infections falling but the other number is rising, the flatline seems to be inclining slightly.

Edited May 23, 20215 yr by FarFlungFalang

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

You should remember that I have been predicting a random walk, with the numbers staying within a limited range, whereas Brian has constantly predicted some vague catastrophe, and therefore has been the opposite of correct.

I have predicted a vague catastrophe? Quote me to prove your assertions.

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I have predicted a vague catastrophe? Quote me to prove your assertions.

sorry, you are never explicit in your predictions, just general doom and gloom.

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You should remember that I have been predicting a random walk, with the numbers staying within a limited range, whereas Brian has constantly predicted some vague catastrophe, and therefore has been the opposite of correct.

Marvin Hagler 1 - Village Idiot 0

4 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The number of prison infections falling but the other number is rising, the flatline seems to be inclining slightly.

For me, the key metric is hospital walk-ins. We’ll see that number later today.

 

Prison numbers don’t have a trend, it depends on which prisons they test on a given day.

 

Same with mass testing in clusters, it depends on if they test a hot cluster or not.

 

The threat is that the number of clusters exceeds their ability to test and treat, which is identified via hospital walk-ins. I suspect that 3,000 walk-ins in a single day would tell us that the wave is out of control and that hospitals will be over run.

Just now, Marvin Hagler said:

Marvin Hagler 1 - Village Idiot 0

Your insightful analysis is much appreciated.

21 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

i won’t ask you about your prediction, since you will refer me to a post you made last Wednesday. But since you always disagree with my predictions, if I am right, then by default you are wrong. Of course, you will evoke the prison numbers, if the general population figures continue to flatline.

That's some weird logic right there.

 

So you go ahead and make your predictions, if your right then I'm wrong despite me not making a prediction. ????

 

This is not a predictions game for under 4 year olds, its a risk assessment for a serious covid 19 situation.

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

That's some weird logic right there.

 

So you go ahead and make your predictions, if your right then I'm wrong despite me not making a prediction. ????

 

This is not a predictions game for under 4 year olds, its a risk assessment for a serious covid 19 situation.

So, what is your risk assessment?

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Your insightful analysis is much appreciated.

Circular Reasoning - it is flawed, petulant and proves nothing. A complete waste of everyone’s time.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

So, what is your risk assessment?

Same as this one posted earlier:

 

BMA and military told prepare facilities to handle surge in COVID-19 infections

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/bma-and-military-told-prepare-facilities-to-handle-surge-in-covid-19-infections/

 

In other words prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Exactly what all governments and scientists around the world do.

Here’s an overview of the latest #COVID19 situation in #Thailand as of 17th-23rd May 2021. #ThaiPBSWorld #ThailandNews #ThailandUpdate

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1396276887798771712

 

Here’s an overview of the latest #COVID19 situation in #Thailand as of 17th-23rd May 2021. #ThaiPBSWorld #ThailandNews #ThailandUpdate

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1396276833310494724

 

33 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Circular Reasoning - it is flawed, petulant and proves nothing. A complete waste of everyone’s time.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"A complete waste of everyone’s time."

 

 

I disagree.  I'm enjoying this.

Edited May 23, 20215 yr by riparian

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

So, what is your risk assessment?

There's a lot of Covid in Thailand. On basis of experience in UK, USA etc, vaccines should make a huge difference to numbers of people getting very sick and dying. General levels of Covid testing in Thailand are still too low to be effective in determining true extent of spread.  

 

So - my risk assessment? Take reasonable precautions if you're over 50 but otherwise don't obsess about the daily stats "yesterday was 2200, today it's 2345, it's up! Panic!". Individual risk of getting seriously ill or dying is low.

 

Amen. Or สาธุ since we're in Thailand.

16 hours ago, Donga said:

One of the very best performers in the world. And recognised as such by WHO and John Hopkins University. I could list all the reasons why they've done well, but frankly getting tired of it. Here's a few - relatively tight border control, face masks from onset, effective contact tracing and one million health volunteers

"Relatively tight border control"???

 

Tight as a duck's proverbial for air arrivals, pathetically inadequate as far as the natural borders are concerned. To be fair to the Thai authorities, it's a huge challenge to police those borders, but it isn't helped by corruption to facilitate entry of illegal migrant workers for seafood processing, agribusiness and construction. 

 

15 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

"I would be worried if the number of hospital walk-in cases were increasing."  They are, are you worried now?

 

Nope. May 22 numbers were higher due to increased cases in the clusters, not hospital walk-ins.

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nope. May 22 numbers were higher due to increased cases in the clusters, not hospital walk-ins.

Official hospital walk in cases:

 

28 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Official hospital walk in cases:

 

I meant today’s walk in numbers are lower, sorry.

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I meant today’s walk in numbers are lower, sorry.

Well this is yesterdays thread

Just talked to my ex-wife and she told me Buriram is vaccinating foreigners as well as Thais.  She has helped a few foreigners enroll and today they received the first shot.  Not all doom and gloom.