My /Your best Guess for Pattaya's re-opening

[Senechal]

I'm going to be the doom guy on this thread, I'm afraid. 

 

My guess is "never" -- or at least not within the foreseeable future. I don't think this "pandemic" has an end. Looking at the international data from California to Australia to the UK, I don't see much reason to suspect there is a stable plateau of zero infection on the horizon.  (Not that "zero infection" was the original goal -- but it certainly appears to be now).

 

The mutation rate appears to be a matter of weeks, and the efficacy of vaccines looks like it's a matter of 3 to 4 months at best. Infection rates are disturbingly high among the already-vaccinated. 

 

The spike in cases in the UK, Israel, Malta and other high-majority vaccinated countries suggests that this virus is simply not going to be defeated in any long-term, sustainable sense by vaccines. Needless to say, Big Pharma will sell us (or our governments, at least) on the idea that the reason the vaccines aren't working is simply that we need more of them, more frequently. And we're going to need digital restrictions to make sure we comply.

 

Vaccine passports are coming -- which is another way of saying that a permanent state of travel-restrictions is coming.  Yes, travel will be possible. No, I don't think travel will not be impulse driven, hassle-free or enjoyable -- or affordable for nearly as many people as it was before.

 

The new normal is greatly reduced travel, and a return to national, in-country travel for most people around the world.

 

One possible upside though: I think the era of massive group-tours might be drawing to a close. 1000 Chinese people crammed into a sightseeing coach seems like a recipe for Covid outbreaks and might make life difficult for tour operators. 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Senechal

[kingstonkid]

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

I disagree.

 

I think Pattaya will return to being a party town, but, in my opinion, it's going to take years, well after the borders open again.  

It may return as a Party place but it is ot going to be the same party.  I think after the baby boomers stop coming or start to decrease that Pattaya and Phuket are going to have to change to a younger more hip place to go.

 

The Old tourist coming to Pattaya for a good time and bar girl is slowly fadding into the sunset.  Just look at the way it was before Covid  Bars were complaining of a lack of paying customers.

[Bohemianfish]

On 7/9/2021 at 7:27 PM, TimBKK said:

The many thousands of Thais who depend upon it for their livelihoods - you know, things like food and keeping a roof over their head.  Happy now?

My error for lack of clarification: The USA has been pumping money into the economy. 

[gk10012001]

There will be martial law before Thailand opens.

[balo]

In March 2020 the experts said the pandemic could last for 2 years, So far they could still be right, the spring of 2022 we could be in a much better place. 

[GrandPapillon]

December 2022, if things go well ????

 

it's only 18 months away, plenty of time to prepare for a grand opening

[DLock]

On 7/10/2021 at 10:27 AM, Ralf001 said:

With the added restrictions to Bangkok I can only see more and more of them coming here..... and bringing their restrictions with them.

 

In my little village there would be 20 houses that have been empty for months and months... Over the past week the for rent/sales signs have been coming down with a BKK plated car parked in the driveway.

 

All 20 houses...or just 1 that he bought at fire sale prices?

[Ralf001]

15 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

All 20 houses...or just 1 that he bought at fire sale prices?

Don't know that they were rented or sold.

 

My guess is the owners (whom drive BKK plated vehicles) have come to stay in their empty houses to get away from BKK.

[rott]

On 7/10/2021 at 2:58 PM, Joinaman said:

You mean those who are now out of work, begging for handouts, the ones who have returned to their villages ?

The ones who, like the world over, will have to adapt and move on, find other works

But that does not change it from a dump, or make people who never want to visit it, care 

You come across as reasonable and rational as a diabetic who has woken up with his sugar off the charts one way or the other. 

 

But please tell about the "real" Thailand also how well you know this "dump" and how much time you have spent here. 

[Sametboy2019]

On 7/19/2021 at 1:28 PM, Senechal said:

I'm going to be the doom guy on this thread, I'm afraid. 

 

My guess is "never" -- or at least not within the foreseeable future. I don't think this "pandemic" has an end. Looking at the international data from California to Australia to the UK, I don't see much reason to suspect there is a stable plateau of zero infection on the horizon.  (Not that "zero infection" was the original goal -- but it certainly appears to be now).

 

The mutation rate appears to be a matter of weeks, and the efficacy of vaccines looks like it's a matter of 3 to 4 months at best. Infection rates are disturbingly high among the already-vaccinated. 

 

The spike in cases in the UK, Israel, Malta and other high-majority vaccinated countries suggests that this virus is simply not going to be defeated in any long-term, sustainable sense by vaccines. Needless to say, Big Pharma will sell us (or our governments, at least) on the idea that the reason the vaccines aren't working is simply that we need more of them, more frequently. And we're going to need digital restrictions to make sure we comply.

 

Vaccine passports are coming -- which is another way of saying that a permanent state of travel-restrictions is coming.  Yes, travel will be possible. No, I don't think travel will not be impulse driven, hassle-free or enjoyable -- or affordable for nearly as many people as it was before.

 

The new normal is greatly reduced travel, and a return to national, in-country travel for most people around the world.

 

One possible upside though: I think the era of massive group-tours might be drawing to a close. 1000 Chinese people crammed into a sightseeing coach seems like a recipe for Covid outbreaks and might make life difficult for tour operators. 

 

 

Completely agree. 

[Leaver]

On 7/19/2021 at 2:11 PM, kingstonkid said:

It may return as a Party place but it is ot going to be the same party. 

 

Well put.  Great way of describing it.  I agree. 

 

On 7/19/2021 at 2:11 PM, kingstonkid said:

I think after the baby boomers stop coming or start to decrease that Pattaya and Phuket are going to have to change to a younger more hip place to go.

Pattaya doesn't have the nice beach to attract that crowd, and Phuket is expensive, and firmly controlled by the Thai mafia, particularly for land transport.  

 

Also, and most importantly, the younger crowd are even more tech savvy than the generation before them, so you will not be selling them lady drinks and bar fines for someone they know they can can dial up on an app and to meet in a bar. 

 

So, for "lady bars" I can only see higher drink prices, as tourists "bring their own" to the bar.  Nightclubs may need to raise prices a little as freelance numbers will be down.  

 

Who knows, bars might have to have a cover charge for bringing your own Thai lady into the bar, like a corkage fee for bringing your own wine to a restaurant.  ????

 

On 7/19/2021 at 2:11 PM, kingstonkid said:

The Old tourist coming to Pattaya for a good time and bar girl is slowly fadding into the sunset.  Just look at the way it was before Covid  Bars were complaining of a lack of paying customers.

Even bars not peddling bar girls were struggling, along with restaurants and small guest houses / hotels.  

 

In my opinion, Pattaya will still be the sex capital of the world for tourist, but the product (sex / companionship) will be presented and purchased in a different manner, which will main be online.   It was going that way before covid.   

 

[Senechal]

On 7/23/2021 at 3:29 PM, Leaver said:

 

Well put.  Great way of describing it.  I agree. 

 

Pattaya doesn't have the nice beach to attract that crowd, and Phuket is expensive, and firmly controlled by the Thai mafia, particularly for land transport.  

 

Also, and most importantly, the younger crowd are even more tech savvy than the generation before them, so you will not be selling them lady drinks and bar fines for someone they know they can can dial up on an app and to meet in a bar. 

 

So, for "lady bars" I can only see higher drink prices, as tourists "bring their own" to the bar.  Nightclubs may need to raise prices a little as freelance numbers will be down.  

 

Who knows, bars might have to have a cover charge for bringing your own Thai lady into the bar, like a corkage fee for bringing your own wine to a restaurant.  ????

 

Even bars not peddling bar girls were struggling, along with restaurants and small guest houses / hotels.  

 

In my opinion, Pattaya will still be the sex capital of the world for tourist, but the product (sex / companionship) will be presented and purchased in a different manner, which will main be online.   It was going that way before covid.   

 

If it's just going to be online, then Pattaya will be no better than any other city in the world. Nobody is going to travel here for the outcall options. 

[Guderian]

The latest news of the Phuket sandbox being given two weeks notice of closure if they can't get Covid infections under control doesn't bode well for Pattaya's reopening any time this year.

 

 

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, Guderian said:

The latest news of the Phuket sandbox being given two weeks notice of closure if they can't get Covid infections under control doesn't bode well for Pattaya's reopening any time this year.

 

 

Despite the surprising low new infections number today for Banglamung.... oh well, back to the drawing board. 

[Leaver]

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Senechal said:

If it's just going to be online, then Pattaya will be no better than any other city in the world. Nobody is going to travel here for the outcall options. 

 

You misunderstand the way it can, and does work. 

 

Yes, a guy can get a girl online and meet her in the lobby of his hotel, and they go upstairs for an hour, as you say, just like any other city, OR, they can arrange to meet in a bar, have a drink, or two, or 10, and then go back to his hotel, or go for dinner, or to a night club, or whatever.  

 

Same options that exist in bars, exist online, just minus paying for lady drinks and bar fines.  

 

The very attractive ones will just want as many short times as they can get, or perhaps a customer may pay an attractive girl good money for long time.  Either way, the girl still ends up making big money and is her own boss, and the customer hasn't paid any lady drinks or bar fine, so he's happy.   

 

I done short and long time with girls from apps.  No problem.   

[fredob43]

On 7/10/2021 at 10:02 AM, Pravda said:

September 2021

CCSA has said latter part of the this year. And they are never correct. 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

Pattaya could - and should - open tomorrow.

it will not mattar at all for the covid situation as the infections are spread

locally by the natives.

just open all borders for any tourist with vaccine and PCR test, and swallow the

national pride and "ai farang" attitude.

at least the economy will be spared.

[pookondee]

13 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

Pattaya could - and should - open tomorrow.

it will not mattar at all for the covid situation as the infections are spread

locally by the natives.

just open all borders for any tourist with vaccine and PCR test, and swallow the

national pride and "ai farang" attitude.

at least the economy will be spared.

Its not as nutty as it sounds.

 

Places like Myanmar will be heading for herd immunity the hard way.

Other places like U.K and U.S.A will simply go back to normal between the numbers vaccinated + the already infected.

Either way, they will probably end up with some form of herd immunity.

 

Other folks will eventually get absolutely jack of all this and take things into their own hands.

 

Florida, with one/third of the population of Thailand are again pulling in similar daily infections, at 15-20k.

Its clear they won't let this stop them from living.

 

When a larger portion of the worlds healthy people

(who probably number around 90%) get sick of having no life, and decide to actually live again, there will not be a lot the governments and politicians can do.

 

The scared will just have to stay indoors while everyone else lives life with Covid.

 

 

 

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

Pattaya could - and should - open tomorrow.

it will not mattar at all for the covid situation as the infections are spread

locally by the natives.

just open all borders for any tourist with vaccine and PCR test, and swallow the

national pride and "ai farang" attitude.

at least the economy will be spared.

Well it won't be so forget it.....

[morrobay]

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Senechal said:

If it's just going to be online, then Pattaya will be no better than any other city in the world. Nobody is going to travel here for the outcall options. 

Not so fast there Hoss. You make some good points in that previous post. But on "Pattaya will be no better than any other city in the world" You are overlooking that Pattaya unlike other cities in the world is staffed by Thai prostitute s.  Not necessary to make the comparisons, but many prefer Thai girls overall. One example: With Thai girls if one is inclined , a long term live in professional girlfriend relationship is negotiable. And by the way  I don't think there are many other cities in the world where you would even think about that with those working girls.

[BritManToo]

On 7/23/2021 at 3:29 PM, Leaver said:

Also, and most importantly, the younger crowd are even more tech savvy than the generation before them, so you will not be selling them lady drinks and bar fines for someone they know they can can dial up on an app and to meet in a bar. 

I prefer the teasing, touching and flirting of the bar scene, happy to pay for a couple of drinks and a tip. No need to take them home or pay bar fines.

 

It's all about romance!

Edited August 1, 2021 by BritManToo

[Henryford]

On 7/30/2021 at 6:08 PM, Leaver said:

 

You misunderstand the way it can, and does work. 

 

Yes, a guy can get a girl online and meet her in the lobby of his hotel, and they go upstairs for an hour, as you say, just like any other city, OR, they can arrange to meet in a bar, have a drink, or two, or 10, and then go back to his hotel, or go for dinner, or to a night club, or whatever.  

 

Same options that exist in bars, exist online, just minus paying for lady drinks and bar fines.  

 

The very attractive ones will just want as many short times as they can get, or perhaps a customer may pay an attractive girl good money for long time.  Either way, the girl still ends up making big money and is her own boss, and the customer hasn't paid any lady drinks or bar fine, so he's happy.   

 

I done short and long time with girls from apps.  No problem.   

Not me, surprisingly i used to enjoy having a drink in the bar, even buying drinks. Not travelling 7000 miles for a quick wham bam thank you mam.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

On 7/19/2021 at 6:28 AM, Senechal said:

 

The spike in cases in the UK, Israel, Malta and other high-majority vaccinated countries suggests that this virus is simply not going to be defeated

you are talking crab.

the vaccines end this pandemic.

only problem is that there are not enough of them.

within a year there will be enough vaccines for the whole world and that will

be the end of the pandemic.

with vaccines there is no hard illness and this is the goal.

israel malta and u.k. are open now and news are good.

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I prefer the teasing, touching and flirting of the bar scene, happy to pay for a couple of drinks and a tip. No need to take them home or pay bar fines.

 

It's all about romance!

 

Pattaya is a very romantic city.  When it rains, it becomes the Venice of South East Asia.  ????  

[Leaver]

7 hours ago, Henryford said:

Not me, surprisingly i used to enjoy having a drink in the bar, even buying drinks. Not travelling 7000 miles for a quick wham bam thank you mam.

 

Are you speaking in general, or in relation to meeting hookers on apps?  If the latter, it works the same way as if you meet them in a bar. 

 

Short time, long time, girl friend experience etc are still options.  The girls on the apps are essentially bar girls who have decided to freelance off apps.  

[morrobay]

11 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Are you speaking in general, or in relation to meeting hookers on apps?  If the latter, it works the same way as if you meet them in a bar. 

 

 

 

 

Not quite. While you can make any offer online. It is from limited information compared to a face to face interaction. I.E. When an online girl shows up you could be in for some surprises you did not want.

But the good news is it's about the only option these days.

Edited August 1, 2021 by morrobay

[jomtienisgood]

4 hours ago, morrobay said:

Not quite. While you can make any offer online. It is from limited information compared to a face to face interaction. I.E. When an online girl shows up you could be in for some surprises you did not want.

But the good news is it's about the only option these days.

You could go 7/11 and find out. 55555

[Leaver]

On 8/2/2021 at 6:50 AM, morrobay said:

Not quite. While you can make any offer online. It is from limited information compared to a face to face interaction. I.E. When an online girl shows up you could be in for some surprises you did not want.

But the good news is it's about the only option these days.

 

From my experiences, even before lock down, I would send a message, which would start a chat session.  If I was happy, I would ask for a video call.  The girls have always obliged.  You get to see what arrives minutes later on the video call. 

 

I remember one girl sent me a video of her displaying her "skills."  She was great.  I believe others are directing potential customers to websites such as Only Fans, where they can see similar.  This is a great business move by the girls.  

 

All the girls I have picked up on apps I've had a drink in a bar with them first.  Some, I have changed my mind from short time to long time and gone out partying with them. 

 

I've not come across the occasion where I have felt misled by photos and chat.       

[Gottfrid]

On 7/10/2021 at 4:26 AM, NCC1701A said:

this time next year. 

 

 

I love a positive comment.

[Caldera]

As far as tourism in Thailand is concerned, I think this year is pretty much toast. So I'm going to say a meaningful reopening of Pattaya won't happen before next year. Hopefully early next year, but it's too early to predict that.