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Once Asia’s top performer, the Thai baht is now becoming the region’s worst-hit currency


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4 hours ago, Harsh Jones said:

Thailand has a healthy trade surplus that isn't going anywhere soon. This article is probably bottom ticking the Baht. All up from here.

True to an extent, but the rising domestic debt and poor prospects for recovery in the shot term. Get the vax'ed level up and tourism should recover. When and how fast is the unknown. For the Pound people, the Thai Baht is more related to the US$ so look more at the US$ vs UK Pound relationship.  

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15 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Tourists will have to pay inflated prices for everything as weakened baht will buy less on international markets. Just to transport coconuts to the resort the farmer will pay more for gasoline because Thailand imports oil. Tourists will need to pay for that, who else. Not to mention household private debts accumulated by Thais over the jobless period. So no, tourists won’t see their currency do better than 2 years ago.

I’m going to have a punt that economics is not your strong suit ! ???? 

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15 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Local prices may rise by 2 % , whilst foreign currency has risen by 20 %

Foreign currency (at least EUR) has fallen in the last years, from 45 THB per EUR in December 2013 down to 38 THB today. With a sharp hike in 2015 when the ECB started their Quantitative Easing program. 

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Apart from numerous retired expats like that the baht is declining in value, it actually also makes Thailand more interesting for tourists and export. Before the military took over, the exchange was up around 36 baht for the dollar, so the military did in way too well with the economy.

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13 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

waiting for it to hit 100 to the pound like 97 .it was a glorious time in the bars

Best I got while sitting in the Honey Hotel "coffee chop" was only 96 but one old guy with us changed 5K of TCs....thats ...travellers cheques.. @ 100 Bt ...Walked away with half a Million..Read somewhere that it "peaked" at 106....but....mai K J..????

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2 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Apart from numerous retired expats like that the baht is declining in value, it actually also makes Thailand more interesting for tourists and export. Before the military took over, the exchange was up around 36 baht for the dollar, so the military did in way too well with the economy.

You could be right if the hotels don't smarten up and price their rates in USD and no one has the sense to increase their prices in tandem. And export don't need to pay more for their import of their raw materials and not passed the increase costs to customers. 

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3 hours ago, Caldera said:

The weakening baht is about the only good news there is in Thailand these days. I wouldn't mind it getting even weaker still.

With 50000 infected per day you will certainly get what you wish for.

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44 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I was referring to the comment about the "possibility" of the mentioned  US rate hike in 2023. I agree with the previously posted claim that the Fed cannot hike its rates without causing a huge stock market crash.

 

The Fed has to keep interest rates low, so that they can at least attempt to pay off the interest on their record huge and spiraling debt. Rate rises makes borrowing more expensive for businesses and so slows expansion as well - bad for markets. The tiny rate rises in 2017 had to be quickly reversed after the markets sagged - these small rises show how sensitive businesses can be to them.

 

Inflation in the US is now rising due to continued money-printing on this new epic scale - much of the "developed" world is following suit. I don't see this as a "temporary" thing.

How many times have we heard that explanation and prediction before. No inflation is rising because of bottlenecks in supplies and, in the USA, at least, shortages of labor. . Computer chips are just one example. Those bottlenecks will work  themmselves out out over the course of a year. 

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21 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

You could be right if the hotels don't smarten up and price their rates in USD and no one has the sense to increase their prices in tandem. And export don't need to pay more for their import of their raw materials and not passed the increase costs to customers. 

Look at local costs, i.e. labor costs etc. - and tourists spending is more than just accommodation - where consumer price index is a good indicator. Around index 98 in 2014, moving up from about index 92 in 2012, now it's just about 100. It's 2 point up, or 2.04 percent up, whilst the baht decrease in value from 36 baht for an USD to 32, was more than 11 percent less baht in their hand for US visitors, for some Europeans the currency exchange rate decrease was more than 16 percent less baht for their European money...????

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50 minutes ago, Rinrada said:

Best I got while sitting in the Honey Hotel "coffee chop" was only 96 but one old guy with us changed 5K of TCs....thats ...travellers cheques.. @ 100 Bt ...Walked away with half a Million..Read somewhere that it "peaked" at 106....but....mai K J..????

Nah Mate, It " Peaked " at 92.....That Was Yer Lot.....

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how many of you will transfer a lot of money if it's going very low ?

I will transfer at least $100000 USD that I do not want to be stolen by my western government to pay for all the covid tests and treatments made for the idiots who were too stupid to protect themselves !

 

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16 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Tourists will have to pay inflated prices for everything as weakened baht will buy less on international markets. Just to transport coconuts to the resort the farmer will pay more for gasoline because Thailand imports oil. Tourists will need to pay for that, who else. Not to mention household private debts accumulated by Thais over the jobless period. So no, tourists won’t see their currency do better than 2 years ago.

2 years ago i was lucky to get 33 to the euro even went down to 31 now on TW im getting just under 39 ?????

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19 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Look at local costs, i.e. labor costs etc. - and tourists spending is more than just accommodation - where consumer price index is a good indicator. Around index 98 in 2014, moving up from about index 92 in 2012, now it's just about 100. It's 2 point up, or 2.04 percent up, whilst the baht decrease in value from 36 baht for an USD to 32, was more than 11 percent less baht in their hand for US visitors, for some Europeans the currency exchange rate decrease was more than 16 percent less baht for their European money...????

Consumer price index is a reflection of changes in cost of an average consumer purchase of a basket of goods and services. Not sure this can be used as a direct indicator for tourist spending. Just my opinion and not discounting that you may be right. 

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7 minutes ago, scoupeo said:

how many of you will transfer a lot of money if it's going very low ?

I will transfer at least $100000 USD that I do not want to be stolen by my western government to pay for all the covid tests and treatments made for the idiots who were too stupid to protect themselves !

 

been thinking about it but don't trust Thai banks of the government  same to be said about my European banks 

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Alanis Morissette would call this ironic [lol] but a coincidence that when I first came here in 1989 it was 40Baht/GBP and currently it's 40Baht/GBP. Mind you, when I moved here in 2007 it was nearly 70Baht/GDP.

 

However, the move was based on my previous experience. What goes around comes around.

 

I do recall when I opened my first bank account with SCB they were reluctant to open it, and even then I had to persuade them to accept any significant GBP transfers. As were Bangkok Bank when I set up an account with them. Foreign currency transfers were limited to 5000GBP.

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