Where a Vast Global Vaccination Program Went Wrong

[Caspersfriend]

AS this is a coronavirus report I don't think the link below is behind the New York Times paywall:

 

Even if Thailand is accepted in [finally] applying to join COVAX, they maybe shouldn't view it as any form of salvation:

 

"After months of struggle, the U.N.-backed Covax alliance will soon have many more doses, promising relief for vaccine shortages in poorer countries. But it faces a deepening crisis: difficulties getting shots into arms as the Delta variant spreads."

 

The reality:

“Covax hasn’t failed, but it is failing,” said Dr. Ayoade Alakija, a co-chair of the African Union’s vaccine delivery program. “We really have no other options. For the sake of humanity, Covax must work.”

"Even as Covax officials scramble to fill that funding gap, the overriding question is whether the program can move beyond its mistakes, and beyond an imbalance of power that has left it at the mercy of wealthy countries and pharmaceutical companies."

"Still, the 163 million doses it has delivered — most free to poorer nations, with the rest to countries like Canada that paid their way — are a far cry from plans to have at least 640 million doses available by now."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/world/europe/covax-covid-vaccine-problems-africa.html

Edited August 6, 2021 by Caspersfriend
Typo

[placeholder]

Well, Covax really isn't necessary for Thailand anyway, Thailand can easily afford to vaccinate all its citizens with the most effective vaccines. And it has a public health system capable of distributing those vaccines.

[Caspersfriend]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, Covax really isn't necessary for Thailand anyway, Thailand can easily afford to vaccinate all its citizens with the most effective vaccines. And it has a public health system capable of distributing those vaccines.

One could almost deduce that you are being sarcastic lol

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, Caspersfriend said:

One could almost deduce that you are being sarcastic lol

Let's say for the sake of argument that thailand would spend $20 per dose of an mRNA vaccine. So 2 doses per person would come to $40. And let's say that everybody is going to get vaccinated twice with said vaccine. Even kids, just for the sake of argument.That would be about 70 million people. So, what does that total come to? About 2.8 billion dollars. The Thai govt.'s budget in 2020 was about 110 billion dollars. So that 2.8 billion dollars (which is a big overestimate) would come to less than 3 percent of Thailand's 2020 budget.

And Thailand has an extensive public health system.

So what exactly is your objection to my analysis?

[Caspersfriend]

14 hours ago, placeholder said:

Let's say for the sake of argument that thailand would spend $20 per dose of an mRNA vaccine. So 2 doses per person would come to $40. And let's say that everybody is going to get vaccinated twice with said vaccine. Even kids, just for the sake of argument.That would be about 70 million people. So, what does that total come to? About 2.8 billion dollars. The Thai govt.'s budget in 2020 was about 110 billion dollars. So that 2.8 billion dollars (which is a big overestimate) would come to less than 3 percent of Thailand's 2020 budget.

And Thailand has an extensive public health system.

So what exactly is your objection to my analysis?

I have no significant disagreement with your original analysis per se. Merely that it sounds like the kind of positive spin statement 'Dr' Anutin would make, with complete disregard for his governments proven track record. They continuously display an inability and unwillingness to implement what appears to many of us to be obvious. At best, they appear to be discombobulated.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Caspersfriend said:

I have no significant disagreement with your original analysis per se. Merely that it sounds like the kind of positive spin statement 'Dr' Anutin would make, with complete disregard for his governments proven track record. They continuously display an inability and unwillingness to implement what appears to many of us to be obvious. At best, they appear to be discombobulated.

I think that things have changed. Not because these people care about the welfare of most Thais but because they're scared. At least those who have a shred of sense. The motives behind their original plans for vaccination are pretty plain to see. I suppose they always were but so long as the pandemic didn't hit Thailand hard, they could have gotten away with it. I think they know that if they don't act fast and hard, they could be facing an existential crisis.

[Caspersfriend]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

I think that things have changed. Not because these people care about the welfare of most Thais but because they're scared. At least those who have a shred of sense. The motives behind their original plans for vaccination are pretty plain to see. I suppose they always were but so long as the pandemic didn't hit Thailand hard, they could have gotten away with it. I think they know that if they don't act fast and hard, they could be facing an existential crisis.

I am optimistic by nature and also sense that maybe, at this stage just maybe, the penny is finally dropping. For the sake of all peoples living in Thailand. However, I am yet to see any significant green shoots, let alone a sea-change, in their collective thinking. It would prove to be a substantial step forward if 'they' allowed their ego's to recognise that the early success with the virus was more a case of serendipity than due to their actions. The latest NIKKEI covid recovery index, where Thailand plummeted from bobbing near the top in 2020 to currently floundering at the very bottom, should give even those who choose not to see a hint. A different call to arms for the generals, get the shots in arms pronto!

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-slips-to-83rd-in-Nikkei-COVID-index-amid-subdued-Olympics

[OneZero]

21 hours ago, placeholder said:

Let's say for the sake of argument that thailand would spend $20 per dose of an mRNA vaccine. So 2 doses per person would come to $40. And let's say that everybody is going to get vaccinated twice with said vaccine. Even kids, just for the sake of argument.That would be about 70 million people. So, what does that total come to? About 2.8 billion dollars. The Thai govt.'s budget in 2020 was about 110 billion dollars. So that 2.8 billion dollars (which is a big overestimate) would come to less than 3 percent of Thailand's 2020 budget.

And Thailand has an extensive public health system.

So what exactly is your objection to my analysis?

But...but...but, you forgot about the higher priority given to those strategic & tactically absolutely necessary Chinese submarines.  Priorities you know.

[placeholder]

6 hours ago, OneZero said:

But...but...but, you forgot about the higher priority given to those strategic & tactically absolutely necessary Chinese submarines.  Priorities you know.

There are plenty of reasons to criticize the budget priorities of the Thai govt. But it was actually featured in thaivisa.com that no money was appropriated for the purchase of submarines in the latest budget. Give this factoid a rest already.

[AwwYesNice1]

[OneZero]

55 minutes ago, placeholder said:

There are plenty of reasons to criticize the budget priorities of the Thai govt. But it was actually featured in thaivisa.com that no money was appropriated for the purchase of submarines in the latest budget. Give this factoid a rest already.

Satire. Satire about unneeded submarines from the Chinese of all countries.  What a Faustian deal with the devil that would be.

 

But to your point, if I'm not mistaken, I think the money was only unwillingly temporarily removed from current budgets after extreme criticism from high profile non military public figures & academics.  If not for the covid issue turning extremely serious now, I believe the military government would still have it in their current budget. 

 

So I disagree strongly with your assertion that the submarine issue needs a rest.  I feel that the submarine issue deserves to remain front & center in peoples minds.  Unless people continue to object strongly to it, the current decision makers will once again attempt to make it a priority.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

 

 

[JerseytoBKK]

12 hours ago, OneZero said:

Satire. Satire about unneeded submarines from the Chinese of all countries.  What a Faustian deal with the devil that would be.

 

But to your point, if I'm not mistaken, I think the money was only unwillingly temporarily removed from current budgets after extreme criticism from high profile non military public figures & academics.  If not for the covid issue turning extremely serious now, I believe the military government would still have it in their current budget. 

 

So I disagree strongly with your assertion that the submarine issue needs a rest.  I feel that the submarine issue deserves to remain front & center in peoples minds.  Unless people continue to object strongly to it, the current decision makers will once again attempt to make it a priority.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

 

 

You should give the sub issue a rest. It's old news and you have a better issue with the decision to purchase 2 T-50TH advanced trainer jets with this years budget for delivery in 2023.

[shdmn]

 

On 8/6/2021 at 4:39 AM, placeholder said:

Well, Covax really isn't necessary for Thailand anyway, Thailand can easily afford to vaccinate all its citizens with the most effective vaccines. And it has a public health system capable of distributing those vaccines.

Covax does not equal free.  My understanding is Thailand will be paying Covax for the shots.  The advantage of using Covax is they can negotiate large quantities and better prices.  They also have direct access and established relationships with the manufacturers. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by shdmn

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, shdmn said:

 

Covax does not equal free.  My understanding is Thailand will be paying Covax for the shots.  The advantage of using Covax is they can negotiate large quantities and better prices.  They also have direct access and established relationships with the manufacturers. 

That seems reasonable, but the fact is that Covax contribution won't amount to much. And Thailand can easily afford to pay the going rates to get the quantity of vaccines it needs. It's not lack of money that stood in Thailand's way but something a bit more discreditiable.

[OneZero]

3 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

You should give the sub issue a rest. It's old news and you have a better issue with the decision to purchase 2 T-50TH advanced trainer jets with this years budget for delivery in 2023.

''Give it a rest'' is cute phraseology.  But it serves to discourage continued public interest & debate on how to most appropriately use a countries limited resources to cost effectively achieve the nations most urgent goals (Defense, Economy, Health, Education, etc) .  The submarine issue may appear dead, but I'm convinced it has only been given a temporary rest.  The Thai public needs to be continually reminded that any future inappropriate use of resources simply robs Peter to pay Paul.

 

Without getting into the weeds on the military's budget justification for their various Defense programs, I believe it would be clearly visible to experienced military budgeteers that the Korean trainer jets are most likely far more easily defendable on multiple issues, than are the Chinese submarines.  Total Life Cycle Cost being the most immediately obvious (look at the aircraft carrier "Chakri Narubet" sitting idle tied down in Sattahip).  

 

At the risk of over simplifying, primary among such issues would be (for each of the various alternative ways to accomplish a stated mission) a Total Life Cycle Cost vs Performance Effectiveness Analysis.  The Korean Trainers would most likely pass muster, whereas the Chinese submarines would very possibly fail scrutiny; especially in competition with other Thai national requirements (Health, Education, etc, Peter pays Paul).

 

Then there is the "Faustian Bargain" issue.  I'm guessing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has siezed the opportunity to offer a submarine program "Loss Leader" (perhaps with "back handers").  Like their Belt & Road initiatives, the purpose being to grab the Thai military by the "short hairs".    

 

The Thai submarine program would then in future be dependent upon the CCP for Chinese submarine unique assistance & advice on all of the following: Doctrine, Organization, Training, Logistics (Supply, Maintenance, Transportation), and Materiel Upgrades. 

 

The CCP knows what it is doing.  A grandiosity seeking, seemingly naive Thai military leadership very possibly does not appreciate the ramifications.  The Thai public should be continually reminded.