Govt Asked to Solve Expensive Pork

[LivinLOS]

20 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Just because you name specific "causes" that doesn't make it so. I remember when quantitative easing was instituted, and your fellow travelers predicted massive inflation. That was over 10 years ago. As they did for the consequences of big government deficits in the wake of the economic crash of 2008 to 2010. Where was the inflation.

As I said in the post.. Inflation first finds its way into financial products.. Seen stock markets ?? Seen Crypto ?? Seen PE ratios worldwide ?? It then moves to real things (real estate) and initially 'things' in the luxury world, seen collectible prices ?? Art ?? Classic Cars ?? Over time it spills out to wage and product in the general markets, as is now happening.. 
 

THATS where the inflation has gone. It takes time for the effects to work through from the cause.. But I already said this, you seem to have trouble reading it ??

[placeholder]

33 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

As I said in the post.. Inflation first finds its way into financial products.. Seen stock markets ?? Seen Crypto ?? Seen PE ratios worldwide ?? It then moves to real things (real estate) and initially 'things' in the luxury world, seen collectible prices ?? Art ?? Classic Cars ?? Over time it spills out to wage and product in the general markets, as is now happening.. 
 

THATS where the inflation has gone. It takes time for the effects to work through from the cause.. But I already said this, you seem to have trouble reading it ??

This is called the wormhole theory of inflation. Cause is at one end, and effect at the other. And in between, nothing.  In this case over a decade. It offers no rational explanation of why it takes so long for inflation to appear in items consumed most. It's obvious why there is inflation in stock prices and other financial products. As the rich have increasingly aggrandized wealth, there are less places to park their money. So real estate, objets d'art and   similar stuff zooms up in price as well. It doesn't have much relevance for the 99+ percent.

As for commodity prices, why pork? Why not eggs? They're far more widely used in food production than pork  How's the price of iron ore doing? As for lumber, which you cited, it had a brief peak and then a collapsed. Oil prices are determined largely by a loose cartel which exerts strong pressure on production when the economy is strong.

And why did you cite the CPI at all as minimizing inflation if you're now claiming that there's a long delay before it shows inflation? I see you have no answer for what the billion prices project showed.

All you've done is cherry pick. And ignore current events. Not a rational way to ascertain inflation.

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, konaboy said:

what is the blue spaceship all about?

If, like me, you don' have a life, it signifies that you spend way too much time posting on thaivisa.com

[Adumbration]

On 12/31/2021 at 8:12 AM, swm59nj said:

I think there are more serious issues to look at other than the price of pork 

Not for Somchai there isn't.

[LivinLOS]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

As for commodity prices, why pork? Why not eggs? They're far more widely used in food production than pork  How's the price of iron ore doing? As for lumber, which you cited, it had a brief peak and then a collapsed. Oil prices are determined largely by a loose cartel which exerts strong pressure on production when the economy is strong.

Lumber is back up you need to keep a closer eye on the charts if you want to make those claims.. Pork.. Sugar.. Coffee.. Corn.. Soft Ags.. Just watch what happens as the energy costs feed through the supply chain through fertilizers and into end unit costs.. One of my businesses is seeing 15 - 20% input cost inflation hitting in the last 3 - 6 months as my supplier struggled to hold it down until it broke. I passed that straight on to my customers as will they.. 

This decade will be the story of inflation.. The headline of this thread is just one example. 

I personally think late Q1 Q2 theres a strong chance in a headfake of an apparent reduction in inflation as supply chains finally start to catch back up and possibly we get past the covid panics a little more, that will probably have the transitory crowd and jim cramers of the financial funny pages crowing and present a superb commodity buying opportunity if it happens. It will be a headfake though, look at M2 (>20% pa for last 2 years).. Look at CB balance sheets the big five from $20.4bn to $32.5bn from Feb 2020 to current (billion price project ended years before this current expansion).

The fed cant raise rates as they jawbone, 5% rates and the entire us tax base is just paying the interest, and a huge proportion of the companies crumble under debt loads, hence they are politically hamstrung as to raise rates to get ahead of the issue they would crash equity markets sparking a global recession, so they simply wont. Inflating it away is the only tool they have so that just means they will simply remain behind the curve as a stagflationary cycle takes hold (already here if you look) blame will be placed on 'covid' not where is actually lies in CB monetary policy. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by LivinLOS

[LivinLOS]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Not for Somchai there isn't.

Arab spring kicked off over the price of bread. 

[LivinLOS]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

This is called the wormhole theory of inflation. Cause is at one end, and effect at the other. And in between, nothing.  In this case over a decade. It offers no rational explanation of why it takes so long for inflation to appear in items consumed most. It's obvious why there is inflation in stock prices and other financial products. As the rich have increasingly aggrandized wealth, there are less places to park their money.

Its called the wormhole theory of inflation by whom ?? A google of the exact phrase gives 0 results, an incredible achievement in todays world ????

Why does it take so long to feed through.. Partly the velocity of money, partly that the currency created remains sterilised and without leaking into the money in circulation initially.. Partly because the people who gain access and are closest to the fount are the wealthy already, the bankers, the financiers, etc. These class of people are less likely to need to convert that cash into staples thier cost of living is not determined by the price of pork.. This is why it shows up initially in Manhattan condos, classic car auctions, art and wines, etc etc.. This is precisely why the luxury market and things like finite collectables are the canary in the coal mine. 

So the rich have too much money and the places they park it rise.. Yes that exactly the mechanism I am describing. It takes a while for the lag time of that low velocity money in elite hands to spread into the general prices. 

[placeholder]

40 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

Lumber is back up you need to keep a closer eye on the charts if you want to make those claims.. Pork.. Sugar.. Coffee.. Corn.. Soft Ags.. Just watch what happens as the energy costs feed through the supply chain through fertilizers and into end unit costs.. One of my businesses is seeing 15 - 20% input cost inflation hitting in the last 3 - 6 months as my supplier struggled to hold it down until it broke. I passed that straight on to my customers as will they.. 

This decade will be the story of inflation.. The headline of this thread is just one example. 

I personally think late Q1 Q2 theres a strong chance in a headfake of an apparent reduction in inflation as supply chains finally start to catch back up and possibly we get past the covid panics a little more, that will probably have the transitory crowd and jim cramers of the financial funny pages crowing and present a superb commodity buying opportunity if it happens. It will be a headfake though, look at M2 (>20% pa for last 2 years).. Look at CB balance sheets the big five from $20.4bn to $32.5bn from Feb 2020 to current (billion price project ended years before this current expansion).

The fed cant raise rates as they jawbone, 5% rates and the entire us tax base is just paying the interest, and a huge proportion of the companies crumble under debt loads, hence they are politically hamstrung as to raise rates to get ahead of the issue they would crash equity markets sparking a global recession, so they simply wont. Inflating it away is the only tool they have so that just means they will simply remain behind the curve as a stagflationary cycle takes hold (already here if you look) blame will be placed on 'covid' not where is actually lies in CB monetary policy. 

Of coursse, petroleum costs and fertiizler are not determined by supply and demand when economies are strong. There is a cartel. So that's got nothing to do with your claim about budget defcits, etc.

As for the rest, it's mostly empty predictions of the kind that characterize the patter of financial pundits everywhere. Of no evidentiary value at all.

You clearly are resolutely determined to ignore the huge impact that covid has had on supply chains. Your only reference to has to do with market prices. The stock markets and the commodity markets are not the economy.

As for stagflation, really? Where is there stagflation?

As for the billion prices project, as I pointed out, it was succeeded by pricestats. And what bearing does that have on this claim of yours?

"Single commodity ?? PPI CPI ?? These are indexes (high manipulated ones in the case of CPI)."

Cleqrly, contrary to your claim, the CPI is a trustworthy gauge of inflation. A lot more accurate than claims such as yours.

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, LivinLOS said:

Its called the wormhole theory of inflation by whom ?? A google of the exact phrase gives 0 results, an incredible achievement in todays world ????

Why does it take so long to feed through.. Partly the velocity of money, partly that the currency created remains sterilised and without leaking into the money in circulation initially.. Partly because the people who gain access and are closest to the fount are the wealthy already, the bankers, the financiers, etc. These class of people are less likely to need to convert that cash into staples thier cost of living is not determined by the price of pork.. This is why it shows up initially in Manhattan condos, classic car auctions, art and wines, etc etc.. This is precisely why the luxury market and things like finite collectables are the canary in the coal mine. 

So the rich have too much money and the places they park it rise.. Yes that exactly the mechanism I am describing. It takes a while for the lag time of that low velocity money in elite hands to spread into the general prices. 

"Wormhole theory" My coinage, thank you. I use it to describe certain theories skip over long periods of time to justify their explanation. For instance, how the boom economy under Bill Clinton was credited to the Reagan tax cuts that took place 7 years earlier. That by those who had previously claimed that tax hikes would torpedo the economy. Or how inflation appears over a decade after it was predicted to occur by pundits. Many of the same pundits who blame it now on those same tired allegations.

And you provide no mechanism by how these pools of money amassed by the wealthy somehow affects general prices How does that happen? Is accumulated wealth contagious? Does it seep into the bank accounts of the 99%? Your contention makes no sense. And using commodities as an indicator of underlying inflation is exactly not the way to go about determining inflation. That's why the important CPI measurement has always been core inflation. And why, because it stripped out volatility, it so closely matched pricestat's figures. In fact, because services generally lag prices for things, the CPI, being slightly lower than the pricestats figures, which don't include services, was overall probably more accurate.

Edited January 1, 2022 by placeholder