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How Japan succeeded in controlling Covid


cmarshall

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7 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Far too simplistic.  According to the Global Obesity Observatory, the US is the 14th most obese nation, but the first thirteen are Pacific island nations with tiny populations.  So, among highly populous nations the US is the most obese.  That might possibly explain the very high rate of US Covid deaths per hundred thousand at 264, but for the fact that Australia and New Zealand are not far behind the US in obesity (18th and 19th respectively,) but they had far lower Covid death rates than the US at 12 and 1 per hundred thousand respectively.  

 

https://data.worldobesity.org/rankings/

Japan, Australia & NZ ( and Thailand) simply shut their borders and were in perfect geographic position to make that highly effective measure.UK & USA did not.

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7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Japan had and continues with some pretty extreme measures

 

Nightmare': Workers, students decry Japan virus entry ban

The 30-year-old is one of more than 370,000 people left in limbo by Japan's coronavirus border rules, which bar almost all new arrivals and are the strictest in the G7. Even as other countries with tough virus restrictions like Australia reopen, Japan still bans tourists and business visitors as well as new foreign workers, students and their dependents.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220125-nightmare-workers-students-decry-japan-virus-entry-ban

 

New entry of foreign nationals
As emergency precautionary measure from a preventive perspective, new entry of foreign nationals is suspended. This measure will remain in effect at least until the end of February.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html

Border closure protects & does not limit those already inside those borders. Japan had no internal travel restrictions. Australia had National border shutdown  ( very good); then State border shutdown ( less good); then City border shutdown (nasty) ; then Local & Suburb shutdown ( nightmare) . 
But Aus did “ better” than Japan by keeping a few more very old alive a few years longer? At that tyrannical high cost.No they did not “do better” awful worst measures for democratic nation…….

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7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Regardless of any health issue the single biggest factor determining probability of dying from COVID is vaccination status.

 

If you are 25 and fit, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

If you are 85 and living in a nursing home, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

 

If you are 25 and fit, you are extremely unlikely to die at all, regardless of your vaccination status. If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year. 

Here are the numbers for Canada by age:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228632/number-covid-deaths-canada-by-age/

 

Nearly two thirds (18,801) of those who have died in Canada from covid in the past two years have been in the 80+ group.
If you then take away those between 50 and 80 (11,130) a good number of who are overweight, with pre-existing chronic health problems, you’re left with 851 deaths in Canada, under 50, over a period of roughly 700 days, so I think it’s more than fair to assert that age is every bit as much of a factor in surviving covid as whether you are vaccinated or not. 

 

Edited by Ryan754326
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7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Regardless of any health issue the single biggest factor determining probability of dying from COVID is vaccination status.

 

If you are 25 and fit, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

If you are 85 and living in a nursing home, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

 

Omicron also turned the tide.

 

Here in Denmark we still have more than 40,000 positive cases a day (46590 today) which is quite a lot in  5,8 mill country.

 

However the prime minister has planned a press meeting for tomorrow

and the press expect that she will lift most if not all restrictions from next week.

 

So seems like Omicron did what we all hoped it would do.

Mass infections, but nothing to serious and hospitals are not crashing,

so we can return to normal, even if we are not even close to seeing the numbers decreasing.

If we lift all restrictions i assume we will still see some high numbers for about 3-4 weeks before it start to drastically drop.

We'll see.

 

Denmark started to release data from the hospitals last month, so we weekly can se how many are admitted because of covid and how many are admitted with something else, but tested positive on/after arrival.

Some regions has almost 50/50 admitted, so the ones that are being admitted and needs treatment only because of Omicron, are actually a lot lower than the released numbers showed before.

Not saying that is perfect, because it's still a bad thing for those in ICU, but it's good news for the overall population.

 

So seems like we're in for a spring/summer/fall with 0 restrictions what so ever,

unless something goes terribly wrong or a new stupid mutation emerges.

 

If no other variants emerge, we should be able to go through next winter with 0 restrictions,

since Pfizer will have released their Omicron vaccine, so things are not looking to bad atm.

Personally i expect more variants, i just hope they can't beat Omicron.

 

Cheers for that.

Hopefully this will be the last year with massive restrictions worldwide.

We need to get back to living our normal lives.

 

We all deserve that after having struggled with this for 2 years.

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1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Getting back to Japan, is it inevitable that nations that have prevented Omicron waves so far are eventually to going to get hit?

That was the argument in 2020 of Dr. Tegnel and Giesecke in Sweden, that in the end all countries would have the same infection and mortality rates so it was futile to attempt to resist widespread infection.  It certainly hasn't turned out that way and Tegnel and Giesecke are medical crackpots in my opinion who ought to be in prison by now.

 

The countries that have controlled Covid effectively for the past two years are continuing to do so with the Omicron variant as these up-to-date numbers from "The Economist" show.  The column on the right is the number of Covid deaths per hundred thousand:

 

image.png.4120d8e2b959b455c62ea97fb8126432.png

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Edited by cmarshall
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25 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

That was the argument in 2020 of Dr. Tegnel and Giesecke in Sweden, that in the end all countries would have the same infection and mortality rates so it was futile to attempt to resist widespread infection.  It certainly hasn't turned out that way and Tegnel and Giesecke are medical crackpots in my opinion who ought to be in prison by now.

 

The countries that have controlled Covid effectively for the past two years are continuing to do so with the Omicron variant as these up-to-date numbers from "The Economist" show.  The column on the right is the number of Covid deaths per hundred thousand:

 

image.png.4120d8e2b959b455c62ea97fb8126432.png

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Certainly before Omicron, preventing mass infection was both possible and smart.

 

But, now, what does Japan do in the future? Countries like America are going to throw their doors open after Omicron, but how does Japan open up without suffering mass Omicron infection? 

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8 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Border closure protects & does not limit those already inside those borders. Japan had no internal travel restrictions. Australia had National border shutdown  ( very good); then State border shutdown ( less good); then City border shutdown (nasty) ; then Local & Suburb shutdown ( nightmare) . 
But Aus did “ better” than Japan by keeping a few more very old alive a few years longer? At that tyrannical high cost.No they did not “do better” awful worst measures for democratic nation…….

You seem to have misconstrued my post, I said Japan also had and continues to have some extreme measures, with Omicron now firmly in-bedded within the community and cases increasing at an unprecedented rate the continued strict closure of borders to foreigners until at least the end of Feb is not in my opinion a good thing at all. What this pandemic after two years have taught us is that border closures when the virus is already ripping through your own country are useless particularly when we now have the Omicron variant and Japan's vaccination rate is high. Its scientifically and logically wrong.

 

As stated the strictest in the G7.

 

As for the internal state border controls and lockdowns in Aus and those saving the lives of as you put it "keeping a few more very old alive a few years longer"

 

I'm not going to even respond to that lame remark when we already know that was a different variant and less vaccination coverage at the time.

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6 hours ago, Ryan754326 said:

If you are 25 and fit, you are extremely unlikely to die at all, regardless of your vaccination status. If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year. 

Here are the numbers for Canada by age:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228632/number-covid-deaths-canada-by-age/

 

Nearly two thirds (18,801) of those who have died in Canada from covid in the past two years have been in the 80+ group.
If you then take away those between 50 and 80 (11,130) a good number of who are overweight, with pre-existing chronic health problems, you’re left with 851 deaths in Canada, under 50, over a period of roughly 700 days, so I think it’s more than fair to assert that age is every bit as much of a factor in surviving covid as whether you are vaccinated or not. 

 

True.  But you can still get the virus, have no symptoms, and pass it along to those who are vulnerable.  It's all tied together.  We're all in this together.  Sadly.

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1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Certainly before Omicron, preventing mass infection was both possible and smart.

 

But, now, what does Japan do in the future? Countries like America are going to throw their doors open after Omicron, but how does Japan open up without suffering mass Omicron infection? 

While it's true that Omicron is more infectious its transmission vector is the same as it always was: aerosols.  So, the methods that have reduced transmission to date will still work, although they might be applied with more stringency.  Japan, as you can see from the data, is doing just fine as are S. Korea, Taiwan, and other countries with effective governments.   In the coming months if Omicron infection diminish as expected Japan will reopen.  If not, they won't.  

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10 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Border closure protects & does not limit those already inside those borders. Japan had no internal travel restrictions. Australia had National border shutdown  ( very good); then State border shutdown ( less good); then City border shutdown (nasty) ; then Local & Suburb shutdown ( nightmare) . 
But Aus did “ better” than Japan by keeping a few more very old alive a few years longer? At that tyrannical high cost.No they did not “do better” awful worst measures for democratic nation…….

I lived in the most locked down city in the world being Melbourne. Had it not been for a few bad eggs and a stuff up with hotel quarantine the lockdowns would have been much less. The state government is still popular in the polls so no problem with democracy. It was a different feeling pre vaccines and during their roll out. People wanted action. There was so much government support which meant many were the same or better off though some business did suffer badly. I will agree there was some cruel stupid measures keeping families and loved ones apart internationally and interstate. 

Edited by Fat is a type of crazy
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8 hours ago, Ryan754326 said:

If you are 25 and fit, you are extremely unlikely to die at all, regardless of your vaccination status. If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year. 

Here are the numbers for Canada by age:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228632/number-covid-deaths-canada-by-age/

 

Nearly two thirds (18,801) of those who have died in Canada from covid in the past two years have been in the 80+ group.
If you then take away those between 50 and 80 (11,130) a good number of who are overweight, with pre-existing chronic health problems, you’re left with 851 deaths in Canada, under 50, over a period of roughly 700 days, so I think it’s more than fair to assert that age is every bit as much of a factor in surviving covid as whether you are vaccinated or not. 

 

Pause for a moment, read and inwardly digest what you wrote here:

 

“If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year”

 

It seems to have passed your attention that not everyone is 25 years old.

 

How about dealing with the reality that society is full of people of all ages, all body sizes and of all health conditions, each and everyone with an equal right to life.

 

Your whole argument is based on (no surprises here) callous denial of the reality around you.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Pause for a moment, read and inwardly digest what you wrote here:

 

“If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year”

 

It seems to have passed your attention that not everyone is 25 years old.

 

How about dealing with the reality that society is full of people of all ages, all body sizes and of all health conditions, each and everyone with an equal right to life.

 

Your whole argument is based on (no surprises here) callous denial of the reality around you.

 

 

And many with hereditary conditions that make them more susceptible to having problems with this virus.  Sad some don't care about the health and welfare of those less fortunate.

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11 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Border closure protects & does not limit those already inside those borders. Japan had no internal travel restrictions. Australia had National border shutdown  ( very good); then State border shutdown ( less good); then City border shutdown (nasty) ; then Local & Suburb shutdown ( nightmare) . 
But Aus did “ better” than Japan by keeping a few more very old alive a few years longer? At that tyrannical high cost.No they did not “do better” awful worst measures for democratic nation…….

All of the lock downs were wildly popular. Opinion polls have shown that the governments popularity has dropped significantly since opening up. They worked for Australia and they worked for Japan at least until omicron started to spread.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

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2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

True.  But you can still get the virus, have no symptoms, and pass it along to those who are vulnerable.  It's all tied together.  We're all in this together.  Sadly.

Those who are seriously vulnerable better learn to accept that they are going to come into contact with covid eventually, unless they are willing to make the necessary lifestyle changes to avoid human contact altogether.
You can post all the studies you want to show that vaccinated people are “less likely” to transmit the virus to others, but what’s happening in the real world should make it obvious that’s there’s really no avoiding it over the long term.
Thankfully the vaccines do a very good job of preventing serious symptoms and death in those who have had them, but then you already knew that. 

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6 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Those who are seriously vulnerable better learn to accept that they are going to come into contact with covid eventually, unless they are willing to make the necessary lifestyle changes to avoid human contact altogether.
You can post all the studies you want to show that vaccinated people are “less likely” to transmit the virus to others, but what’s happening in the real world should make it obvious that’s there’s really no avoiding it over the long term.
Thankfully the vaccines do a very good job of preventing serious symptoms and death in those who have had them, but then you already knew that. 

Or, we can all get jabbed up and get this pandemic over with.  For those who refuse, they can make the necessary lifestyle changes to avoid human contact altogether.  They are in the minority after all.

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1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Pause for a moment, read and inwardly digest what you wrote here:

 

“If the whole world was 25 and fit, I am confident that covid would have passed by without most of us really noticing, the same way the flu does every year”

 

It seems to have passed your attention that not everyone is 25 years old.

 

How about dealing with the reality that society is full of people of all ages, all body sizes and of all health conditions, each and everyone with an equal right to life.

 

Your whole argument is based on (no surprises here) callous denial of the reality around you.

 

 

I’m well aware that the whole world is not 25 and in good health. What I’m suggesting is that maybe we stop treating the whole world as if they’re 80, and restricting everyone’s lives just the same as those who are actually vulnerable. 
At some point people are going to have to take responsibility for their own safety, and stop expecting the rest of us to suffer in order to protect them. 
There are many people out there who have a good chance of dying if they were to catch the flu as well, but we never locked society down and caused this kind of disruption to peoples lives in order to protect them. They had to live with that risk and do their best to protect themselves. 

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11 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Or, we can all get jabbed up and get this pandemic over with.  For those who refuse, they can make the necessary lifestyle changes to avoid human contact altogether.  They are in the minority after all.

No amount of jabs is going to make covid go away. It’s here to stay, and will continue to mutate in those that inevitably get infected, jabbed or not.
You’re so focused on a few anti-vaxxers that you’re forgetting about the huge chunk of the world’s population who simply can’t get a vaccine whether they want it or not. By the time these people do get a jab, there will probably be a new mutation that renders that jab almost useless, as we’ve already seen.
It’s simply impractical to vaccinate 8 billion people every six months. That is the reality. 
 

You really do seem to be in denial about the massive numbers of vaccinated people who are being infected. 
Natural immunity will most likely be what ends the pandemic. Those who are more vulnerable can trust their jabs to give them an extra level of protection. 
Many governments are finally waking up to this fact of life, and readjusting restrictions accordingly. 
 

 

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19 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

No amount of jabs is going to make covid go away. It’s here to stay, and will continue to mutate in those that inevitably get infected, jabbed or not.
You’re so focused on a few anti-vaxxers that you’re forgetting about the huge chunk of the world’s population who simply can’t get a vaccine whether they want it or not. By the time these people do get a jab, there will probably be a new mutation that renders that jab almost useless, as we’ve already seen.
It’s simply impractical to vaccinate 8 billion people every six months. That is the reality. 
 

You really do seem to be in denial about the massive numbers of vaccinated people who are being infected. 
Natural immunity will most likely be what ends the pandemic. Those who are more vulnerable can trust their jabs to give them an extra level of protection. 
Many governments are finally waking up to this fact of life, and readjusting restrictions accordingly.

It's not just about protecting the lives of the vulnerable.  From children to old people and those with hereditary conditions.  It's about opening up our hospitals.  Giving our health care workers a break, and some respect.  Saving money from all the unvaxxed in the hospitals.  Etc, etc, etc.

 

It's more than a few anti vaxxers.  In the US, it's a large percentage.  Causing the majority of the problems.  And no reason to vaccinate 8 billion people every 6 months.  No one is recommending that except for the ones in need.

 

Natural immunity has been debunked many times.  Especially with new variants cropping up.

 

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47 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

I’m well aware that the whole world is not 25 and in good health. What I’m suggesting is that maybe we stop treating the whole world as if they’re 80, and restricting everyone’s lives just the same as those who are actually vulnerable. 
At some point people are going to have to take responsibility for their own safety, and stop expecting the rest of us to suffer in order to protect them. 
There are many people out there who have a good chance of dying if they were to catch the flu as well, but we never locked society down and caused this kind of disruption to peoples lives in order to protect them. They had to live with that risk and do their best to protect themselves. 

The idea that people can ‘take care of their own safety’ is patently false when other people are spreading a highly contagious disease.

 

COVID is a public health risk and as such needs public health response.

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42 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

No amount of jabs is going to make covid go away. It’s here to stay, and will continue to mutate in those that inevitably get infected, jabbed or not.
You’re so focused on a few anti-vaxxers that you’re forgetting about the huge chunk of the world’s population who simply can’t get a vaccine whether they want it or not. By the time these people do get a jab, there will probably be a new mutation that renders that jab almost useless, as we’ve already seen.
It’s simply impractical to vaccinate 8 billion people every six months. That is the reality. 
 

You really do seem to be in denial about the massive numbers of vaccinated people who are being infected. 
Natural immunity will most likely be what ends the pandemic. Those who are more vulnerable can trust their jabs to give them an extra level of protection. 
Many governments are finally waking up to this fact of life, and readjusting restrictions accordingly. 
 

 

 Nobody is in denial about the numbers of vaccinated people who get infected, it’s a topic that is frequently discussed on this forum.

 

As discussed on numerous occasions:

 

Vaccinated people might get infected but they are far less likely to become seriously ill, be hospitalized or die than are unvaccinated people (regardless of any other health consideration).

 

You might recall this being discussed.

 

 

Edited by Chomper Higgot
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5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Certainly before Omicron, preventing mass infection was both possible and smart.

 

But, now, what does Japan do in the future? Countries like America are going to throw their doors open after Omicron, but how does Japan open up without suffering mass Omicron infection? 

Countries that try to keep omicron away will just prolong the pandemic.

 

Might as well just get it over with and let omicron gain control worldwide, so Delta can become history.

 

WHO also today told about the BA.2 mutation spreading.

Not much to worry about as far as i can tell.

It's dominant in Denmark now and are not causing any more problems than BA.1 so far.

Reinfections could be the worst issue.

 

i think we have seen enough data to realize that omicron is so much "better" to have in circulation compared to delta, so i don't understand why countries still try to prevent the spread.

 

 

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6 hours ago, JTXR said:

Very good point.  It's interesting that rampant political correctness in the US prevents the media from citing the obscene rates of obesity in the US as a significant factor in the super high number of excess deaths that can be attributed to Covid-19.

It's also interesting that denialism prevents so many from acknowledging that countries like New Zealand and Australia  with extremely high rates of obesity have managed to keep covid deaths so low.

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12 minutes ago, Virt said:

Countries that try to keep omicron away will just prolong the pandemic.

 

Might as well just get it over with and let omicron gain control worldwide, so Delta can become history.

 

WHO also today told about the BA.2 mutation spreading.

Not much to worry about as far as i can tell.

It's dominant in Denmark now and are not causing any more problems than BA.1 so far.

Reinfections could be the worst issue.

 

 

i think we have seen enough data to realize that omicron is so much "better" to have in circulation compared to delta, so i don't understand why countries still try to prevent the spread.

 

 

The health experts don't agree with you.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/5-reasons-you-should-not-deliberately-catch-omicron-to-get-it-over-with-1.5735182

 

Quote

5 reasons you should not deliberately catch Omicron to 'get it over with'

 

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The Omicron variant appears to result in less severe COVID-19 than seen during previous periods of high coronavirus transmission including the Delta wave, with shorter hospital stays, less need for intensive care and fewer deaths, according to a new U.S. study.

However, the fast-spreading Omicron variant has led to record numbers of infections and hospitalizations, straining the U.S. healthcare system.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-is-less-severe-with-omicron-than-delta-us-study-suggests-2022-01-25/

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10 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I'm not talking about deliberately trying to get infected.

I also warned about that in other threads weeks ago.

 

I'm talking about it is time to move on now when we finally have a variant that cause less problems.

We have a chance of getting delta out of the way.

 

Get the vaccination and you are almost 100% sure not to die from omicron unless you are old or have other underlying conditions.

 

You might take a look at what many euro countries are doing at the moment.

They are lifting some restrictions in the middle of the omicron outbreak and not the other way around.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The Omicron variant appears to result in less severe COVID-19 than seen during previous periods of high coronavirus transmission including the Delta wave, with shorter hospital stays, less need for intensive care and fewer deaths, according to a new U.S. study.

However, the fast-spreading Omicron variant has led to record numbers of infections and hospitalizations, straining the U.S. healthcare system.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-is-less-severe-with-omicron-than-delta-us-study-suggests-2022-01-25/

Yeah that's the biggest issue we have too.

Lack of people on the jobs since many are in isolation.

Many of them have no symptoms but have to stay home since they are positive.

Isolating rules are also being changed in many countries.

Shorter isolation periods are on the drawing board.

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3 hours ago, Virt said:

I'm not talking about deliberately trying to get infected.

I also warned about that in other threads weeks ago.

 

I'm talking about it is time to move on now when we finally have a variant that cause less problems.

We have a chance of getting delta out of the way.

 

Get the vaccination and you are almost 100% sure not to die from omicron unless you are old or have other underlying conditions.

 

You might take a look at what many euro countries are doing at the moment.

They are lifting some restrictions in the middle of the omicron outbreak and not the other way around.

 

 

Every time they've lifted restrictions in the past, we had a spike not long after. I'm tired of it also. But some places are lifting restrictions due to politics. Not science.

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