Nothing of significance will happen. The papers will sensational every minor contact and blow it out of proportion. Biden is weak and America will not send troops to another conflict it cannot win. Putin is probably the smartest world stage leader standing. He will up the rhetoric and push the envelop as far as he can, but he will not go over an invisible line. He will cut gas to Germany/Europe. China ... well they will save the day with a well thought out peace plan and then broker a treaty - they need global friends after Covid and their belligerent antics. Peace maker serves them a great purpose. Having stopped back from the brink ... this is brinkmanship at its best. The daft European and Americans will congratulate themselves on a job well done and how they kept Putin under their thumb. No-one will take it seriously. Putin will keep the two states he currently occupies and Nato will think twice about taking on Russia - a fight they will ultimately lose if they did. Just a thought. 

As earlier posters have suggested, the main threat to Thailand is if Putin's invation of a former Soviet republic encourages China to invade Taiwan.

 

Fundamentally, Russia is saying Ukraine used to belong to the Soviet Union and they want it back. They don't want it falling into the Western camp and Russia will not hesitate to use military force to meet its objectives.

 

Putin is implicitly demonstrating to China that this is how a real world power does business. It doesn't beat around the bush like China does with Taiwan. Putin's view is probably that if Taiwan belongs to China then China should just take it!

 

If Putin is succesful in reclaiming Ukraine, China may well be embolded to invade Taiwan no matter what the rest of the world thinks.

 

Such a scenario would have big implications for Thailand (and probably for expats living here).

 

 

Edited February 23, 20224 yr by Stevemercer

6 hours ago, garyk said:

You retiree's better set aside some funds for a rapid departure.

We would soon experience Us bases in Thailand again, if Thailand do get the F-35 contract they want, if not, they might choose to side with China. 

12 minutes ago, Hummin said:

We would soon experience Us bases in Thailand again, if Thailand do get the F-35 contract they want, if not, they might choose to side with China. 

Surely Thailand will be able to receive the F-35s to sink Thailand's Chinese submarines.

Just now, BE88 said:

Surely Thailand will be able to receive the F-35s to sink Thailand's Chinese submarines.

Yep, one foot on each side to make the right manuver in time

3 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Yep, one foot on each side to make the right manuver in time

You read the history of Thailand I see ????

9 hours ago, webfact said:

What are your thoughts? Perhaps you feel it is just too far away to be of major concern.

It depends.  As it is now, it will have no effect.  Blaming stock price declines and high gas prices what have just transpired is a fools game.  Stock prices were in decline and gas prices rising before Russian officially recognized the LDNR.
However, if US/NATO war-hawks decided to get involved in a hot-war with Russian Federation then I'd fully expect China to take sides.  With China involved, then it could be very uncomfortable for Western expats to remain in Thailand (or ASEAN for that matter) as it will then be a matter of time for SE Asian countries to pick a side - or - simply be absorbed (look a WWII Thailand when the Japanese showed up). 

5 hours ago, anthos said:

I personally agree but apparently Putin doesn't seem to rely ,on his nuclear weapons enough.
He keeps arguing that having NATO bases as close as Ukraine minimizes any military advantage Russia may have. 

As you may recall, during the recent exercises in the Belarus, Putin had a test run performed of a Russian nuclear missile. 

On 2/23/2022 at 11:33 AM, connda said:

Putin's Russia is no more Communist and no less Democratic then the European Union with it's unelected, ruling technocrats running the entire union.

Totally agree on the EU. They are total hypocrites.

 

The West will sound off about Russia and then do pretty much nothing IMO. Maybe a few sanctions. The West has become weak and everyone knows it.

 

China won't have failed to notice this mess either. Expect an invasion of Taiwan while our Parliamentarians are too busy arguing about what the definition of a woman is.

Edited February 25, 20224 yr by onthedarkside
trolling comments removed

8 hours ago, garyk said:

You retiree's better set aside some funds for a rapid departure.

What for.??? You maybe.

 

15 minutes ago, connda said:

It depends.  As it is now, it will have no effect.  Blaming stock price declines and high gas prices what have just transpired is a fools game.  Stock prices were in decline and gas prices rising before Russian officially recognized the LDNR.
However, if US/NATO war-hawks decided to get involved in a hot-war with Russian Federation then I'd fully expect China to take sides.  With China involved, then it could be very uncomfortable for Western expats to remain in Thailand (or ASEAN for that matter) as it will then be a matter of time for SE Asian countries to pick a side - or - simply be absorbed (look a WWII Thailand when the Japanese showed up). 

Dubious China will takes sides in any way that is more than token. And even if it did, ya think it would invade its neighbors over the issue? Russia has a moribund economy. China's economy is anything but. It doesn't need to physically absorb its neighbors to dominate them.

Edited February 23, 20224 yr by placeholder

We will all feel the effects finally of it escalates.

 

Hopefully the sanctions will give Putin something to think about.

If not, it's still possible to scale up the sanctions a lot more.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10538977/Boris-Johnson-sanctions-Russian-oligarchs-Ukraine-invasion-taken-long.html

 

It's not just pennies were talking about, and  Putins inner circle will not like what is going on.

It's a serious amount of money that has been frozen in just the UK.

 

A lot of them can be banned from entering most countries in the world if more countries join the sanctions and then their playground becomes a lot smaller.

 

Not something people with a lot of money will enjoy.

 

Hit all Putins friends on their wallet and ban them and their families from entering most countries in the world, and Putin might find himself without friends.

 

A president without friends are not a president for a very long time.

 

So yeah.

Scale up the sanctions by 10 x.

Make them bleed money.

 

The only things Putin understand are brute force and money.

 

War against Russia is not the best idea, so go for the money and see if that does the trick.

 

If that does not work.

Well then the West have to find out what their next step is.

5 hours ago, anthos said:

He argues that the deterrent power of his nuclear weapons may be diminished by having NATO missiles within 5 minutes flight from his residence. 
If they can get rid of him and his military headquarters in a few minutes there will be no one to order a retaliation strike.
He just doesn't want to move to Siberia just because of that, you know. Easier to take Ukraine back and he definitely sees more glory in that.

 

No worries about anything. I'm sure Gen. Milley is on top of it.

18 minutes ago, vinci said:

what i want to know is does the people of Ukraine wants to join Russia or just a small group of power hungry politician wants to go against

Dismal Russian Record in Occupied Eastern Ukraine Serves as Warning

The areas, once engines of the Ukrainian economy, are now impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely on Russian subsidies to survive. It’s what many fear could happen to the rest of the country if Vladimir Putin carries out a broader invasion

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dismal-russian-record-in-occupied-eastern-ukraine-serves-as-warning-11643988253

2 hours ago, gearbox said:

People from countries with substantial pensions which get properly indexed...and people with substantial investment income which rises with the inflation.

That sounds like us!

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Be nice to see Russia be banned from all world sport, all citizens banned from all world travel and that pathetic pro Russian RT station banned in the UK

Indeed; nowhere near enough pain will be administred to Russia and Russian's in general because of the actions of the Evil Putin.  If The West was determined he should fail then what better way than to punish ALL Russians.   It wouldn't be too long before his own people turned against him and he would have more trouble than he could cope with.   Sadly; Liberlism in The West has badly affected the whole working of Government minds, which have turned to Marshmallow !

6 hours ago, NanaSomchai said:

They should have already left.

 

They have had two years to do so with the so-called COVID-19 extensions. But of course people abused said visa extensions and saw this was a new way to maintain themselves longer in the Kingdom than they should already have.

 

When sh*t finally hits the fan for good in Thailand... you don't want to be there, trust me.

rather be nuked here than freezing cold Birmingham..ha send those nukes down to soi 6 im ready for a big Bang 

6 hours ago, heybruce said:

NATO rightly sees Russia as a threat since Russia is an expansionist wanna-be empire.  Putin is demonstrating that now.

 

NATO is only a threat to Putin's plans to dominate surrounding countries.  Does anyone really believe that NATO wants to invade Russia? 

 

BTW:  I agree the US invasion of Granada was BS.  President Reagan needed a distraction from the US Marine barracks bombing in Beirut that happened two days earlier: 241 US and 58 French military killed with no retaliation against Hezbollah, the organization responsible.  It was the true inspiration for future suicide bombings, including 9-11.

I think, in this case it is Nato who is expansionist. Nato has no business in being in Ukraine. Ukraine should be a neutral state between Nato and Russia, safer for everyone.  ????

 

10 hours ago, webfact said:

what are your concerns/predictions about the impact on our lives here as expats

Witnessing "punch-ups" between Ukrainian and Russian tourists in Thai bars and on Thai beaches?????

48 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Dubious China will takes sides in any way that is more than token. And even if it did, ya think it would invade its neighbors over the issue? Russia has a moribund economy. China's economy is anything but. It doesn't need to physically absorb its neighbors to dominate them.

Yes.

 

China will sit it out and scoop up the advantage gained whoever "triumphs".

 

It will be equally happy to see either side "diminished".........best result for it would be both.

 

 

Edited February 23, 20224 yr by Enoon

6 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Real sanctions will have impact. Seize the assets of Vladdy's Oligarch buddies in the EU. Take the futball teams, the homes in Knightsbridge and Mayfair, the non-Swiss bank accounts (the Swiss are always 'neutral'). Turn the Oligarchs against Vladdy.

 

If Radio Free Europe still existed, the US could go after Russian mothers:

 

"You carried your boy for nine months, then raised him. You want him to come home in a body bag for an insecure, power hungry psychopath driven by a Napoleon Complex resulting from being handed microjunk at birth?"

 

As it is, in a few days we will see an attack on a school filled with Russian-speaking children. The attackers will be Russian, but Vladdy will claim it was Ukraine (false flag). He will then use that as pretext to send in more troops as well as attack Kyiv.

De Pfeffel was elected on the back of Russian cash. He's even put one in the house of Lords. He ain't gonna rock Putin's boat too much. He's already added a few peacemeal sanctions on banks and oligarchs that have been on the us sanction list for years.

2 hours ago, JackGats said:

I've read on military websites that Taiwan was more than able to defend itself though.

You are correct and Taiwan doesn't even have to win. If they inflict massive casualties and damage to China's military machine, China could be deterred.

 

 

Narrator: In Soviet Russia...TV WATCH YOU! 

If tourists from India, the U.S., Japan, or Australia don't return to Thailand, the TAT will blame the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I'm sure...

 

(Then again, if I went to the TAT head office today, showing them a map of the world, I wonder how many employees there could find 'Ukraine' within 30 seconds...) ????

Edited February 23, 20224 yr by StayinThailand2much

5 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

I just hope Thailand doesn’t pick a side on this—‘cause you know they’ll probably choose the wrong one…

Do you mean when they had chosen the wrong one during Korean, Vietnam war, hadn't they? 

36 minutes ago, Chris.B said:

I think, in this case it is Nato who is expansionist. Nato has no business in being in Ukraine. Ukraine should be a neutral state between Nato and Russia, safer for everyone.  ????

 

I'm sure Ukraine would be happily neutral if Russia had stayed out of its politics, hadn't seized Ukrainian territory and wasn't supporting rebel militias.

Just now, heybruce said:

I'm sure Ukraine would be happily neutral if Russia had stayed out of its politics, hadn't seized Ukrainian territory and wasn't supporting rebel militias.

Well there you are, a plausible peace plan. Why is no one discussing it? ????

 

Hopefully there's no impact on the price of Leo!

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

You left out the part about every NATO country strengthening their defenses and every European country not in NATO rushing to join (except Belarus, which has no history as a real country).  Also, the kleptocrats who support Putin will be hurt financially by the sanctions to come and will begin to question their support.

 

Putin's goal was to weaken NATO and strengthen his position in Russia.  He screwed up badly. 

 

However he may succeed in preventing an Orthodox Christian Slavic nation with a long border with Russia from becoming a successful democracy.  That is Putin's greatest fear; it would give Russians some dangerous ideas.

Russia has the largest military personal already in theatre (1.2 mill) ... America cannot mobilise its entire force (1.3m) because it would be logistically impossible ... the UK is just 156,000, France 200,000 and Germany 190,000. The largest European army is Turkey ..... a third of the size of Russia and not as well equipped. Importantly Russian is a single fighting force not a fragmented consortium of different countries, languages and motivation .... and leadership. It won't end well if they butt heads.