Will the Australian dollar benefit from the Russian invasion.

[Adumbration]

Russia's war on Ukraine will result in an increase in the price of commodities.

 

The Australia dollar usually tracks commodity prices.

 

I appreciate that it will be gas and oil mostly effected, and AUD is iron ore and uranium, but I see today that the AUD is rallying already.

 

What do you think?

[StayinThailand2much]

It looks like it, and should the war last longer, then the Aussie might benefit even more from higher coal and iron ore prices.

Edited March 2, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[Hoppyone]

Nothing changed in 5 year apart from fluctuation up & down rate is same today as 5 years ago

[Sparktrader]

Aus % rate should go up soon

[sanuk711]

Yes the Oz $ will benefit, if its a long draw out affair, or if Russia is able to take it over -- Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe--

--also exports its grain to USA/India/China. So, If Russian invasion  is successful, its possible that countries will not take from there , if its unsuccessful but a lot of infrastructure is damaged.  Docks/Railways/ Bridges, then they will have problems for-filling their orders.

[CharlieH]

Not a Thailand related topic.

 

MOVED to Home Country sub forum

[StayinThailand2much]

7 minutes ago, sanuk711 said:

Yes the Oz $ will benefit, if its a long draw out affair, or if Russia is able to take it over -- Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe--

--also exports its grain to USA/India/China (...)

You're spot on! Wheat futures just surged to a 14-year high. Maybe I'll switch to eating cake instead of bread... ????

[steven100]

The Australian dollar will not benefit much from the Russian invasion.  How much export does Australia do with Russia ......   very little.    How much imports does Australia do with Russia ....  very little ,  so the question shows how

ill-informed or unsavy the OP is about investing.

[Sparktrader]

Just now, steven100 said:

The Australian dollar will not benefit much from the Russian invasion.  How much export does Australia do with Russia ......   very little.    How much imports does Australia do with Russia ....  very little ,  so the question shows how

ill-informed or unsavy the OP is about investing.

Commodity prices go up

Aus benefits

[Sparktrader]

$A is a commodity based fiat

[Sparktrader]

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-are-you-trading-the-commodity-currency-202109100328

[steven100]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

$A is a commodity based fiat

you are dreaming like your crypto expectations.  Lol

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, steven100 said:

you are dreaming like your crypto expectations.  Lol

Do some reading and educate yourself on the AUD.

 

The OP is wise. Not everyone is.

[Sparktrader]

FMG is a good guide to prices

[CharlieH]

Off topic post and response to it, removed.

[metisdead]

Posts containing content that was copy and pasted from some sites without valid links to the sources of information have been removed.

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

[sanuk711]

11 hours ago, steven100 said:

The Australian dollar will not benefit much from the Russian invasion.  How much export does Australia do with Russia ......   very little.    How much imports does Australia do with Russia ....  very little ,  so the question shows how

ill-informed or unsavy the OP is about investing.

Steven100---we are not talking about the Australian exports to Russia---but the exports from Ukraine & Russia to other countries--because Russia will find it difficult to export Grain/maize /Coal etc  after this conflict other then places like China/N.Korea etc . The Maize is very important to countries in the EU as its the stable diet of their livestock.

 

Look at the Wheat/Maize market they used to have together last few years,  Who can replace that ??

The Oz $ has started to slowly go up 3 days ago.

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by sanuk711

[steven100]

Weekly AUD prices since Oct 2021.  

 

[xenophon]

A$ already has started to benefit a little. Although it is called a commodity based currency, it is surprising how often it does not simply follow rising commodity prices, especially against major currents such as 'flight to safety' to the ¥ and USD.

 

The baht should be falling like a rock but is not. Has BOT released its gremlins again?

[Adumbration]

Well.  Despite all of the trolls on this thread it would seem I was correct.  

 

You're welcome.

[KhunHeineken]

On 3/9/2022 at 12:32 AM, Adumbration said:

Well.  Despite all of the trolls on this thread it would seem I was correct.  

 

You're welcome.

Any gains are well overtaken by the huge increase in cost of living.  

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Any gains are well overtaken by the huge increase in cost of living.  

I am not on a pension.  I trade the AUD.

[KhunHeineken]

8 hours ago, Adumbration said:

I am not on a pension.  I trade the AUD.

That's going to be hard work in the near future.  

[Adumbration]

5 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

That's going to be hard work in the near future.  

Why?

[KhunHeineken]

On 3/17/2022 at 2:56 PM, Adumbration said:

Why?

 

Australia has massive national debt, as well as household debt.  

 

Ukraine is rich in mineral resources, which no doubt Russia will strip out and sell to their friends in China for a good price.  

 

Big natural disasters in Australia.  

 

Real possibility of a hung parliament in May, causing some instability.  

 

A huge jump in the cost of living in Australia, inflation on the boil.  Eg.  petrol now $2.35 a liter.  

 

Interest rate rises on the way, which is not a bad thing for everyone, but there are a lot of over leveraged property owners, there will be many foreclosures.  Mortgage stress properties are up by 42%.

 

The Aussie dollar could slip below 20 baht over the next 12 months.  

 

  

[Adumbration]

19 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

 

Australia has massive national debt, as well as household debt.  

 

Ukraine is rich in mineral resources, which no doubt Russia will strip out and sell to their friends in China for a good price.  

 

Big natural disasters in Australia.  

 

Real possibility of a hung parliament in May, causing some instability.  

 

A huge jump in the cost of living in Australia, inflation on the boil.  Eg.  petrol now $2.35 a liter.  

 

Interest rate rises on the way, which is not a bad thing for everyone, but there are a lot of over leveraged property owners, there will be many foreclosures.  Mortgage stress properties are up by 42%.

 

The Aussie dollar could slip below 20 baht over the next 12 months.  

 

  

I don't agree with anything on your list.  

 

However, when China moves on Taiwan, America must assist and then the US will demand Australia stop exporting to China.  That is when the AUD is toast.

[KhunHeineken]

3 hours ago, Adumbration said:

I don't agree with anything on your list.  

 

However, when China moves on Taiwan, America must assist and then the US will demand Australia stop exporting to China.  That is when the AUD is toast.

Australia's national debt.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-drives-up-debt-to-menzian-levels-with-no-end-in-sight-20211228-p59kg1.html

 

Australia 5th highest household debt in the world.  

 

https://www.comparethemarket.com.au/home-loans/features/top-countries-in-debt/

 

Ukraine rich in mineral wealth, particularly Lithium - think everything with a battery.  How much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is going to be sold to China, by Russia, cutting out Australian exports?

 

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/are-ukraines-vast-natural-resources-a-real-reason-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25

 

Natural disasters.  Scroll down for the effects on industry. Mining top of the list -  "In mining, down 12.8% in the first year, 12% in the second"

 

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/economy/natural-disaster-protection-insurance-floods-bushfires-economic-effects/

 

Possibility of a hung Parliament.  The media are now focusing on the possibility of it happening.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-29/federal-election-hung-parliament-crossbench-scott-morrison/100944676

 

Huge jump in the cost of living.  It's no secret.

 

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australias-cost-of-living-is-soaring-why-is-everything-so-expensive/v37nzmu44

 

Interest rates are on the way up, the only question is by how much.  Put those rate rise/s against record household debt, and a huge jump in the cost of living, and there is a lot of pain coming to a lot of Australians.  

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-question-on-every-borrower-s-mind-how-high-will-interest-rates-go-20220325-p5a80g.html

 

All of the above doesn't paint a rosy picture.  

 

The question is, will it effect the Australian dollar.  You say it will go up, I say it will go down over the next 12 months. 

 

The war in Ukraine is only one problem Australia's economy is facing, among many other, listed above.  

 

Whilst Australia is not the only country facing some, or all, of the above issues, Australia only has a population of 25 million people, with only 12 million Australians working. 

 

How are 12 million Australians going to dig the country out of the above mess?    

[Adumbration]

5 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Australia's national debt.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-drives-up-debt-to-menzian-levels-with-no-end-in-sight-20211228-p59kg1.html

 

Australia 5th highest household debt in the world.  

 

https://www.comparethemarket.com.au/home-loans/features/top-countries-in-debt/

 

Ukraine rich in mineral wealth, particularly Lithium - think everything with a battery.  How much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is going to be sold to China, by Russia, cutting out Australian exports?

 

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/are-ukraines-vast-natural-resources-a-real-reason-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25

 

Natural disasters.  Scroll down for the effects on industry. Mining top of the list -  "In mining, down 12.8% in the first year, 12% in the second"

 

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/economy/natural-disaster-protection-insurance-floods-bushfires-economic-effects/

 

Possibility of a hung Parliament.  The media are now focusing on the possibility of it happening.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-29/federal-election-hung-parliament-crossbench-scott-morrison/100944676

 

Huge jump in the cost of living.  It's no secret.

 

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australias-cost-of-living-is-soaring-why-is-everything-so-expensive/v37nzmu44

 

Interest rates are on the way up, the only question is by how much.  Put those rate rise/s against record household debt, and a huge jump in the cost of living, and there is a lot of pain coming to a lot of Australians.  

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-question-on-every-borrower-s-mind-how-high-will-interest-rates-go-20220325-p5a80g.html

 

All of the above doesn't paint a rosy picture.  

 

The question is, will it effect the Australian dollar.  You say it will go up, I say it will go down over the next 12 months. 

 

The war in Ukraine is only one problem Australia's economy is facing, among many other, listed above.  

 

Whilst Australia is not the only country facing some, or all, of the above issues, Australia only has a population of 25 million people, with only 12 million Australians working. 

 

How are 12 million Australians going to dig the country out of the above mess?    

You could be right.  So could I. Such is the nature of forex.

 

You are assuming I have taken a long position in AUD.

 

Why?

[KhunHeineken]

21 hours ago, Adumbration said:

You could be right.  So could I. Such is the nature of forex.

 

You are assuming I have taken a long position in AUD.

 

Why?

I'm not assuming anything.  I digressed from the thread title slightly, and said the AUD could be under 20 baht in the next 12 months. 

 

In any case, the war in Ukraine could go on for years, if guerilla warfare tactics are used by Ukraine.  Russia may have created for themselves another Afghanistan.  That said, Ukraine has mineral and agricultural wealth, and just like the coalition of the willing pulled oil out of an illegal war in Iraq, Russia will do the same with Ukraine, but with other commodities.  

 

With harsh sanctions, the war very well could become political inside Russia, similar to the Vietnam War, with massive protests and civil unrest.  If this happens, it will be interesting to see what measures the Russian government take against its own people.  

 

I really hope I am wrong, but with a $78 billion budget deficit, and sovereign debt edging closer to a trillion dollars, how long before Australia loses its AAA rating?  Watch what happens to the AUD then.  Banana Republic here we come.  

 

You can ride the peaks and troughs of the AUD in the short term, based on the war in Ukraine, but like I said, it's hard work, and will become even harder work as Australia's debt increases beyond a trillion dollars, and beyond what 12 million tax payers, and industry, can afford to pay back. 

 

What silverware does Australia have left to sell?  I am sure the Chinese have a few things in mind.

 

Sad to say, over the last 20 years, Australia has "checkmated" itself through government mismanagement.

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, KhunHeineken said:

I'm not assuming anything.  I digressed from the thread title slightly, and said the AUD could be under 20 baht in the next 12 months. 

 

In any case, the war in Ukraine could go on for years, if guerilla warfare tactics are used by Ukraine.  Russia may have created for themselves another Afghanistan.  That said, Ukraine has mineral and agricultural wealth, and just like the coalition of the willing pulled oil out of an illegal war in Iraq, Russia will do the same with Ukraine, but with other commodities.  

 

With harsh sanctions, the war very well could become political inside Russia, similar to the Vietnam War, with massive protests and civil unrest.  If this happens, it will be interesting to see what measures the Russian government take against its own people.  

 

I really hope I am wrong, but with a $78 billion budget deficit, and sovereign debt edging closer to a trillion dollars, how long before Australia loses its AAA rating?  Watch what happens to the AUD then.  Banana Republic here we come.  

 

You can ride the peaks and troughs of the AUD in the short term, based on the war in Ukraine, but like I said, it's hard work, and will become even harder work as Australia's debt increases beyond a trillion dollars, and beyond what 12 million tax payers, and industry, can afford to pay back. 

 

What silverware does Australia have left to sell?  I am sure the Chinese have a few things in mind.

 

Sad to say, over the last 20 years, Australia has "checkmated" itself through government mismanagement.

Government in Australia has always been inept, and the frank stupidity and political naivety of the average Australian punter manifest. 

 

That is why a hung parliament is not a real issue.  Remember a few years back there was an extended hung parliament, things ran as usual because of permanent government staff, in the end it got embarrassing as the party members from both camps started to realise if they did not do something promptly it would dawn on even the bluntest bogan in the box that they were irrelevant.

 

I agree with you that moving forward Australia, and its dollar are done for.  No arguments there. But the factors I see as primary in the demise of the Australia dollar are different to the ones you have identified.  The most noteworthy is when China moves on Taiwan.  By the way, when that happens, the Thai regime will side with China, and, at best, farangs here will lose their visas.