US economy adds 263,000 jobs in November, better than expected as hiring remains solid

[Scott]

U.S. job growth rose faster than expected in November as the labor market remained resilient in the face of higher interest rates, scorching-hot inflation and mounting recession fears.

 

Employers added 263,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, topping the 200,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. It marks a slight deceleration from the upwardly revised job gain of 284,000 recorded in October. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held steady at 3.7%.

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-adds-jobs-november-better-expected-hiring-remains-solid

 

[placeholder]

Oh no. Declining gasoline prices. Inflation decreasing. Hiring remaining strong. Please make it stop!!!

[placeholder]

Fox News is covering this story. But unlike other major media, it's way way down the list. And here's the headline:

Job market resilient despite scorching-hot inflation, skyrocketing interest rates

https://www.foxnews.com/

 

Yet when you click on the link, here's the headline:

US economy adds 263,000 jobs in November, better than expected as hiring remains solid

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-adds-jobs-november-better-expected-hiring-remains-solid

[Mac Mickmanus]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Fox News is covering this story. But unlike other major media, it's way way down the list. And here's the headline:

Job market resilient despite scorching-hot inflation, skyrocketing interest rates

https://www.foxnews.com/

 

 

Dud link, it just gives a link to Fox news and not the news story you claim it is 

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Dud link, it just gives a link to Fox news and not the news story you claim it is 

That was the link to the homepage where the story was way down the list. Had you bothered to click on the 2nd link, that would have taken you directly to the story.

I don't u;nderstand why you quoted only the first part of my post. Maybe you failed to do that because you'd rather live in denial?

 

Here it is again:

"Yet when you click on the link, here's the headline:

US economy adds 263,000 jobs in November, better than expected as hiring remains solid

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-adds-jobs-november-better-expected-hiring-remains-solid"

 

The story has since vanished from the Fox homepage because, it's not like news of the condition of the US economy is of any importance. Not something a news organization would want its readers to know about. Oddly enough, as I write this, it's still the number one story on the home page of the Wall St. Journal. 

[jcmj]

Unfortunately there are still too many people not willing to work. So you can have as many jobs as you want out there but until they get the people to work it really doesn’t make a difference. Same goes for Thailand. Tons of jobs out there but not many willing to take them. The old days of working hard for your money are gone for the most part. 

[nigelforbes]

The problem of course is that when you've increased interest rates six months in a row and the last four of those increases were large, it is not unreasonable to expect to see some anecdotal impact such as a reduction in the number of new jobs added. When you see the opposite and more new jobs are added, one interpretation is that interest rate increases have had no impact on hiring. Another interpretation is that companies increase hiring in the run up to Xmas. But new job numbers is just a single data set, it's going to take more data sets to paint a more accurate picture. Personally, I'm sticking with a rate reduction of .50%, anything more is just too risky.

 

In the meantime, I expect USD to remain flat or even rally, until more data arrives. Logically, equities should also remain flat or even fall. Earnings season begins in January and that will really tell the picture, many analysts are forecasting up to 30% falls in equities as a result of recession. But when did equities performance ever combine with logic!

Edited December 2, 2022 by nigelforbes

[nigelforbes]

46 minutes ago, jcmj said:

Unfortunately there are still too many people not willing to work. So you can have as many jobs as you want out there but until they get the people to work it really doesn’t make a difference. Same goes for Thailand. Tons of jobs out there but not many willing to take them. The old days of working hard for your money are gone for the most part. 

Nonsense, Thailand unemployment rate is 1.20%. There may be lots of vacancies but the problem is that the external work force from Myanmar and Cambodia, upon which the country relies for several industries, still hasn't returned in strength due to political and pandemic factors.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/unemployment-rate#:~:text=Thailand Unemployment Rate remained the,an average rate of 1.20%.

[alex8912]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

The problem of course is that when you've increased interest rates six months in a row and the last four of those increases were large, it is not unreasonable to expect to see some anecdotal impact such as a reduction in the number of new jobs added. When you see the opposite and more new jobs are added, one interpretation is that interest rate increases have had no impact on hiring. Another interpretation is that companies increase hiring in the run up to Xmas. But new job numbers is just a single data set, it's going to take more data sets to paint a more accurate picture. Personally, I'm sticking with a rate reduction of .50%, anything more is just too risky.

 

In the meantime, I expect USD to remain flat or even rally, until more data arrives. Logically, equities should also remain flat or even fall. Earnings season begins in January and that will really tell the picture, many analysts are forecasting up to 30% falls in equities as a result of recession. But when did equities performance ever combine with logic!

Nice to see some input here instead of " Fox News still soo bad " brigade just spewing to reach 1 million posts. 

[RichardColeman]

Who'da thought extra staff were hired for X-mas after 2 years of covid anti-xmas shutdowns !

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Nonsense, Thailand unemployment rate is 1.20%. There may be lots of vacancies but the problem is that the external work force from Myanmar and Cambodia, upon which the country relies for several industries, still hasn't returned in strength due to political and pandemic factors.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/unemployment-rate#:~:text=Thailand Unemployment Rate remained the,an average rate of 1.20%.

Thai unemployment data are obviously untrustworthy. As any economist will tell you, if the unemployment rate was really that low, there would be massive wage inflation in Thailand. The thing is the Thai govt doesn't count as unemployed anyone who works at least one hour per week. Nor does it count workers in the informal sector which constitutes about half of the Thai labor force.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a52db26d-460b-4000-946f-b30d66afbee6
 

Thailand’s Covid crisis exposes the reality of ‘2% unemployment’

"Jimmy is part of Thailand’s growing ranks of unemployed or barely employed, though he wouldn’t be counted in the official statistics on the jobless total because Thailand — using International Labour Organization guidelines — doesn’t consider as unemployed a person who works at least one hour a week. Also, more than half of the roughly 38m in the Thai workforce are in the informal sector and aren’t included in jobless data. These factors help keep Thailand’s official unemployment rate low — seemingly unproblematic — compared with regional peers and developed countries."

https://www.ft.com/content/a52db26d-460b-4000-946f-b30d66afbee6

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Who'da thought extra staff were hired for X-mas after 2 years of covid anti-xmas shutdowns !

Finally, a sensible explanation for the covid shutdowns: It was the Grinch that did it.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

The problem of course is that when you've increased interest rates six months in a row and the last four of those increases were large, it is not unreasonable to expect to see some anecdotal impact such as a reduction in the number of new jobs added. When you see the opposite and more new jobs are added, one interpretation is that interest rate increases have had no impact on hiring. Another interpretation is that companies increase hiring in the run up to Xmas. But new job numbers is just a single data set, it's going to take more data sets to paint a more accurate picture. Personally, I'm sticking with a rate reduction of .50%, anything more is just too risky.

 

In the meantime, I expect USD to remain flat or even rally, until more data arrives. Logically, equities should also remain flat or even fall. Earnings season begins in January and that will really tell the picture, many analysts are forecasting up to 30% falls in equities as a result of recession. But when did equities performance ever combine with logic!

Well, new jobs added has been pretty flat for the last 4 months

https://www.wsj.com/articles/november-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-economy-growth-2022-11669944597

So, given the slowdown in the housing market, it's a pretty sure thing that the number of new hires would be even higher were it not for interest rate increases.

And the unemployment figures are typically seasonally adjusted to take factors such as Xmas hiring into account.

And there won't be a rate reduction but rather a rate increase. The question is whether it will be .50% or higher.

 

[EVENKEEL]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

Oh no. Declining gasoline prices. Inflation decreasing. Hiring remaining strong. Please make it stop!!!

Does that mean my next visit to Calif I'll be back to paying under $3.00/gal like it was? 

 

Stock market regaining ground is also good. 

[nigelforbes]

23 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, new jobs added has been pretty flat for the last 4 months

https://www.wsj.com/articles/november-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-economy-growth-2022-11669944597

So, given the slowdown in the housing market, it's a pretty sure thing that the number of new hires would be even higher were it not for interest rate increases.

And the unemployment figures are typically seasonally adjusted to take factors such as Xmas hiring into account.

And there won't be a rate reduction but rather a rate increase. The question is whether it will be .50% or higher.

 

The problem is the market was expecting 200k, not 270k, and with rate increases being what they were, that's not an unreasonable expectation. The fact the new jobs figure has been flat confirms the thinking that rate increases haven't trickled through yet. As also said, this is just one data set..

 

I bad, meant increase not reduction.

[nigelforbes]

35 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Thai unemployment data are obviously untrustworthy. As any economist will tell you, if the unemployment rate was really that low, there would be massive wage inflation in Thailand. The thing is the Thai govt doesn't count as unemployed anyone who works at least one hour per week. Nor does it count workers in the informal sector which constitutes about half of the Thai labor force.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a52db26d-460b-4000-946f-b30d66afbee6
 

Thailand’s Covid crisis exposes the reality of ‘2% unemployment’

"Jimmy is part of Thailand’s growing ranks of unemployed or barely employed, though he wouldn’t be counted in the official statistics on the jobless total because Thailand — using International Labour Organization guidelines — doesn’t consider as unemployed a person who works at least one hour a week. Also, more than half of the roughly 38m in the Thai workforce are in the informal sector and aren’t included in jobless data. These factors help keep Thailand’s official unemployment rate low — seemingly unproblematic — compared with regional peers and developed countries."

https://www.ft.com/content/a52db26d-460b-4000-946f-b30d66afbee6

 

Regardless of perceived flaws in the way jobless are counted, the figures haven't changed MoM for a long long time.

[Tug]

38 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Does that mean my next visit to Calif I'll be back to paying under $3.00/gal like it was? 

 

Stock market regaining ground is also good. 

Doubt it on the gas prices to much demand no more pandemic shut down to stifle demand plus Putin’s horror in Ukraine let’s all hope the Biden team can get inflation under control so we can continue to progress and see lower interest rates again I’d like to buy a new truck soon!

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Does that mean my next visit to Calif I'll be back to paying under $3.00/gal like it was? 

 

Stock market regaining ground is also good. 

If the price of gasoline is so important to you, you should consider visiting Saudi Arabia instead.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Regardless of perceived flaws in the way jobless are counted, the figures haven't changed MoM for a long long time.

As pointed out above, the informal economy, which constitutes half the workforce is not represented in these figures. And the workers in this sector are reckoned to be hit far worse.

 

Informal workers most affected by COVID-19: UN Thailand
23 June 2020

Workers in the informal economy are most affected by the COVID-19 crisis, while the number of working poor is expected to rise to at least 11 per cent, according to the research by International Labour Organization (ILO), a member of the United Nations in Thailand.

https://thailand.un.org/en/50833-informal-workers-most-affected-covid-19-un-thailand

 

what's more, how useful can Thai unemployment figures be when even 1 hour of work a week means someone is not employed? Unless the ratio of underemployed workers to employed workers remains the same, which seems unlikely, not very.

 

[EVENKEEL]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

If the price of gasoline is so important to you, you should consider visiting Saudi Arabia instead.

Sub par deflection.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, EVENKEEL said:

Sub par deflection.

Nonsense. The meaning is clear enough. The price of gasoline in most of the world has spiked sharply. You focus on that instead of the good news about the strength of the American economy. Clearly, if anyone is doing deflecting, it's you.

[EVENKEEL]

7 hours ago, Tug said:

Doubt it on the gas prices to much demand no more pandemic shut down to stifle demand plus Putin’s horror in Ukraine let’s all hope the Biden team can get inflation under control so we can continue to progress and see lower interest rates again I’d like to buy a new truck soon!

The demand you're referring to is a direct result of words from biden.

 

 

American refinery capacity has been on the decline in recent years, according to Fuels Market News latest Refinery Capacity Report. The report found that operable atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity in the U.S. fell from 19 million barrels per calendar day at the start of 2020 to 18.1 million at the start of 2021. It marked the first decrease in refinery capacity since 2017, the report noted.

 

But government pressure to wean the country off of fossil fuels has made business difficult, with Flynn arguing that "refineries are getting squeezed out of business because of stricter regulations from the Biden administration and the pressure by the government" to "reduce demand for gasoline."

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oil-refineries-shutter-amid-hostile-fossil-fuel-policies-pain-at-the-pump

[EVENKEEL]

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Nonsense. The meaning is clear enough. The price of gasoline in most of the world has spiked sharply. You focus on that instead of the good news about the strength of the American economy. Clearly, if anyone is doing deflecting, it's you.

No, you told me to move to Saudi Arabia if I don't like it...........deflection

 

We the USA was so better situated pre biden to deal with high gas prices around the world.

 

Your only reason is well other's have it worse so I'm supposed to feel relieved is to laugh at. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by EVENKEEL

[placeholder]

Just now, EVENKEEL said:

No, you told me to move to Saudi Arabia if I don't like it...........deflection

The point being, of course, that in Saudi Arabia the price of gasoline is less than $3 per gallon.

[Dave0206]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Who'da thought extra staff were hired for X-mas after 2 years of covid anti-xmas shutdowns !

Long lead up to Xmas who'd thought it

[candide]

58 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

The demand you're referring to is a direct result of words from biden.

 

 

American refinery capacity has been on the decline in recent years, according to Fuels Market News latest Refinery Capacity Report. The report found that operable atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity in the U.S. fell from 19 million barrels per calendar day at the start of 2020 to 18.1 million at the start of 2021. It marked the first decrease in refinery capacity since 2017, the report noted.

 

But government pressure to wean the country off of fossil fuels has made business difficult, with Flynn arguing that "refineries are getting squeezed out of business because of stricter regulations from the Biden administration and the pressure by the government" to "reduce demand for gasoline."

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oil-refineries-shutter-amid-hostile-fossil-fuel-policies-pain-at-the-pump

So distribution capacity fell under Trump's mandate. Good to know! ????

 

I wonder why Fox News stick to outdated statistics?

Oh wait!

U.S. oil production nears 12 mln barrels/day, at pre-pandemic high

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-monthly-oil-output-climbs-pre-pandemic-highs-2022-10-31/

[vandeventer]

9 hours ago, jcmj said:

Unfortunately there are still too many people not willing to work. So you can have as many jobs as you want out there but until they get the people to work it really doesn’t make a difference. Same goes for Thailand. Tons of jobs out there but not many willing to take them. The old days of working hard for your money are gone for the most part. 

It could have been a lot better!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHGU_2a5xDU

 

[EVENKEEL]

2 hours ago, candide said:

So distribution capacity fell under Trump's mandate. Good to know! ????

 

I wonder why Fox News stick to outdated statistics?

Oh wait!

U.S. oil production nears 12 mln barrels/day, at pre-pandemic high

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-monthly-oil-output-climbs-pre-pandemic-highs-2022-10-31/

Refinery capability and oil production not same same.

[candide]

46 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Refinery capability and oil production not same same.

Is there a shortage of refined oil? It is unlikely as they have been able to increase exports of refined products.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53999

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Is there a shortage of refined oil? It is unlikely as they have been able to increase exports of refined products.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53999

 

 

U.S. refining capacity has fallen by 5.4%, or 1.03 million bpd to 17.9 million bpd since it peaked in 2019 at 18.98 million bpd. Capacity in 2021 dropped 4.5% to 18.13 million bpd.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-refining-capacity-drops-2021-2d-straight-year-eia-2022-06-21/