20 Million International Travelers Expected to Visit Thailand in 2023

[newnative]

3 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Global recession and 20 million big spenders are going to come to Thailand... Those big spenders will be the ones squeezing a 100 baht note and the Thais trying to pry it out of the tourists death grip... 

No matter which way TOT wants to put their spin on it is it going to be a tough year for them.

     I guess we'll see--I think a number of posters made your same points for 2022 and Thailand managed around 11 million--even with a very slow start.  I was one of the sceptics who thought, mid-year 2022, that Thailand would be lucky to hit 6 million, given the low numbers for the first half of the year. 

    Recession or not, there's a lot of pent-up demand to travel by many, who have been stuck at home for several years.  My partner and I just went to Europe in December and we are planning at least 1 but likely 2 trips out of the country in 2023, trying to catch up some with those lost travel years.

     

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Gknrd said:

Global recession and 20 million big spenders are going to come to Thailand... Those big spenders will be the ones squeezing a 100 baht note and the Thais trying to pry it out of the tourists death grip... 

No matter which way TOT wants to put their spin on it is it going to be a tough year for them.

I don't think the telephone company has a role to play in any of this....:))

 

There's a relationship between the number of arriving international tourists and the money they spend, and the value of other exports. A combination of 15 million tourists plus other exports of over USD 20 bill. per month will put the current account in surplus and cause THB to maintain its value or to strengthen. Add more tourists and substract some other exports, or visa versa and the impacts are the same.

[Soikhaonoiken]

I wouldn't hold your breath counting on 20 million tourists in 2023, once Thailand becomes a Covid hot spot after letting in unchecked Chinese visitors...

[Gknrd]

6 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I don't think the telephone company has a role to play in any of this....:))

 

There's a relationship between the number of arriving international tourists and the money they spend, and the value of other exports. A combination of 15 million tourists plus other exports of over USD 20 bill. per month will put the current account in surplus and cause THB to maintain its value or to strengthen. Add more tourists and substract some other exports, or visa versa and the impacts are the same.

Hummm, exports are down  US and European exports are declining drastically.  Tourism numbers predicted are because of China finally trying to unlock. Of course that is a disaster for China that is playing out as we speak.

All accounts are predicting a decline in exports. And a recession in Thailand.

Who knows Thailand may become the center of the world and pull the rest of the world out of recession and in doing so increase it exports.

Anything is possible I guess.

[nigelforbes]

3 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Hummm, exports are down  US and European exports are declining drastically.  Tourism numbers predicted are because of China finally trying to unlock. Of course that is a disaster for China that is playing out as we speak.

All accounts are predicting a decline in exports. And a recession in Thailand.

Who knows Thailand may become the center of the world and pull the rest of the world out of recession and in doing so increase it exports.

Anything is possible I guess.

Sorry, I couldn't resist......TOT is the phone company, TAT is the Tourist Authority of Thailand!.

 

Exports have been down because China is Thailand's second biggest trading partner for exports and the country has been closed, other countries on ASEAN are less reliant on China.

 

Cumulative tourist arrivals for 2022 are forecast to come in at 10 mill, 1.75 mill. arrived in November alone. Once again, China is Thailands biggest single tourist source so doubling the figures to 20 mill. in 2023 doesn't seem that much of a stretch, covid notwithstanding.

 

Other exports may well be lower, much will depend on the demand from exporting countries and  governments control of THB which looks set to grow stronger than is helpful. 

 

[nigelforbes]

4 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Hummm, exports are down  US and European exports are declining drastically.  Tourism numbers predicted are because of China finally trying to unlock. Of course that is a disaster for China that is playing out as we speak.

All accounts are predicting a decline in exports. And a recession in Thailand.

Who knows Thailand may become the center of the world and pull the rest of the world out of recession and in doing so increase it exports.

Anything is possible I guess.

I missed it, 11.8 mill. tourists confirmed in  2022, another 8 mill. should be walk in the park.

[Gknrd]

18 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I missed it, 11.8 mill. tourists confirmed in  2022, another 8 mill. should be walk in the park.

Doesn't matter what so ever. China's is in a severe downturn also.  Consumption is way down and a recession is there now . You can bring in 8 million more it won't matter. The coffers will be depleted at record paces. If you think China is going to save Thailand in 2023 you are smoking some really good stuff.  Thailand is one of the fastest growing senior societies with none to little help from the government. China is the fastest declining population in history. 2024 may bring some relief if China can get things under control . Then a steady decline for Thailand and China in the market. Numbers don't lie. 

Thailand made the wrong decision plain and simple. It will pay a heavy penalty in the next 10 years.

Tourism will help but it will never be enough at this point to put a dent in the decline.

 

The problem at this point is as manufacturing goes away and the government cannot maintain the infrastructure things will start a slow and steady decline. Tourists don't want to visit a country that is dying.  

Edited January 5, 2023 by Gknrd

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Doesn't matter what so ever. China's is in a severe downturn also.  Consumption is way down and a recession is there now . You can bring in 8 million more it won't matter. The coffers will be depleted at record paces. If you think China is going to save Thailand in 2023 you are smoking some really good stuff.  Thailand is one of the fastest growing senior societies with none to little help from the government. China is the fastest declining population in history. 2024 may bring some relief if China can get things under control . Then a steady decline for Thailand and China in the market. Numbers don't lie. 

Where I live in northern Thailand, I'm surrounded by Chinese families, over 80%. I know first hand that Thailand is a very cheap destination for the Chinese. I also know that many many Chinese are desperate to get money out of China and I know that Thailand is a prime destination for that.

 

A recession in China as far as impact on tourist numbers is concerned, doesn't mean anything whatsoever. A recession in China as far as other exports are concerned, also doesn't mean much. Thailand is already pushing USD 22 bill. a month without China business, now that China is opening up, that figure will only increase. Whyever do you think that international currency markets are forecasting THB and SGD as this years star performing currencies! Get with the program man, you're way behind the curve on this one. Tell you what, talk to me again in April when 1Q23 numbers are in.

 

 

[Gknrd]

6 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Where I live in northern Thailand, I'm surrounded by Chinese families, over 80%. I know first hand that Thailand is a very cheap destination for the Chinese. I also know that many many Chinese are desperate to get money out of China and I know that Thailand is a prime destination for that.

 

A recession in China as far as impact on tourist numbers is concerned, doesn't mean anything whatsoever. A recession in China as far as other exports are concerned, also doesn't mean much. Thailand is already pushing USD 22 bill. a month without China business, now that China is opening up, that figure will only increase. Whyever do you think that international currency markets are forecasting THB and SGD as this years star performing currencies! Get with the program man, you're way behind the curve on this one. Tell you what, talk to me again in April when 1Q23 numbers are in.

 

 

Get with the program.. haha.. Sure Thailand is seeing a surge in money trying to get out of China. BUT, it is way down on the list. The US, Australia , and others are seeing the big money transfers. As China crumbles they are trying to do anything they can to get their assets out. And Thailand is just a small part of that equation. It will help for a while.  Again, as the industrial market dies so will the infrastructure.. A no brainer..

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Get with the program.. haha.. Sure Thailand is seeing a surge in money trying to get out of China. BUT, it is way down on the list. The US, Australia , and others are seeing the big money transfers. As China crumbles they are trying to do anything they can to get their assets out. And Thailand is just a small part of that equation. It will help for a while.  Again, as the industrial market dies so will the infrastructure.. A no brainer..

Wow, you very clearly don't have much experience of Asia....crumbles? The worlds second largest economy? Just for info. China has currency export restrictions on ALL Chinese citizens, the amounts they can export is quite small and it's been this way for many years. The casino's at Macau used to be a popular route for this, now, Thailand is major destination for funds, legal and otherwise.

 

Yes, Thailand's economy is very small by comparison and it's currency is an exotic boutique currency that represents less than 1% of global forex trading. That means it doesn't take much to move the value of the currency either way, but since THB is a restricted currency, that can only really happen from within the country, or via trade, aka tourism and exports.

 

Talk to me again in April, I've put you in my diary, you come round for tea if you like. :))

[Gknrd]

On 1/5/2023 at 7:51 AM, nigelforbes said:

Wow, you very clearly don't have much experience of Asia....crumbles? The worlds second largest economy? Just for info. China has currency export restrictions on ALL Chinese citizens, the amounts they can export is quite small and it's been this way for many years. The casino's at Macau used to be a popular route for this, now, Thailand is major destination for funds, legal and otherwise.

 

Yes, Thailand's economy is very small by comparison and it's currency is an exotic boutique currency that represents less than 1% of global forex trading. That means it doesn't take much to move the value of the currency either way, but since THB is a restricted currency, that can only really happen from within the country, or via trade, aka tourism and exports.

 

Talk to me again in April, I've put you in my diary, you come round for tea if you like. :))

Exactly that is why no one wants the Yuan, and tell that to the millions of Chinese circumventing the currency flow out of China into Hong Kong and the US.  Chinese millionaires are not stupid. They are fleeing faster than a rat on a sinking ship.

Looking forward to the cup of tea..

I personally love Thailand and wish all the best for the New Year.

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Gknrd

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Exactly that is why no one wants the Yuan, and tell that to the millions of Chinese circumventing the currency flow out of China into Hong Kong..  

Looking forward to the cup of tea..

Now that is funny.

 

I used to work in banking in Hong Kong for many years, I can assure you that today there is very very little circumvention there of mainland currency restrictions, the national security law put an end to that. The flow of money is actually the otherway, from HK into China on a speculative basis. Both China and HK monetray authorities are trying to stop the practise.

 

"To restrict the flow of funds, the People's Bank of China, the mainland's central bank, set down rules that are overseen by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Banks in Hong Kong doing yuan business cannot exchange more than 20,000 yuan a day for individuals. And individual bank account holders in Hong Kong are limited to wiring 80,000 yuan a day to accounts on the mainland held in the same name".

 

https://www.scmp.com/article/995448/hot-moneys-growing-underground-flow

 

As for nobody wanting the Yuan, well, many countries in the region now have currency swaps in place to settle export trading bills, Thailand is one, THB/YUAN.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-wealth-idUSKBN2340QC

[Gknrd]

13 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Now that is funny.

 

I used to work in banking in Hong Kong for many years, I can assure you that today there is very very little circumvention there of mainland currency restrictions, the national security law put an end to that. The flow of money is actually the otherway, from HK into China on a speculative basis. Both China and HK monetray authorities are trying to stop the practise.

 

"To restrict the flow of funds, the People's Bank of China, the mainland's central bank, set down rules that are overseen by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Banks in Hong Kong doing yuan business cannot exchange more than 20,000 yuan a day for individuals. And individual bank account holders in Hong Kong are limited to wiring 80,000 yuan a day to accounts on the mainland held in the same name".

 

https://www.scmp.com/article/995448/hot-moneys-growing-underground-flow

 

As for nobody wanting the Yuan, well, many countries in the region now have currency swaps in place to settle export trading bills, Thailand is one, THB/YUAN.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-wealth-idUSKBN2340QC

I've looked into buying the Yuan, it is a dead end street. I also own some Chinese stock.. Same thing there IMHO.. Do what you want, and best of luck to you.. I will stick with the numbers. Years ago I made a few bucks with Chinese stocks.. Now, lord you would have to be an idiot to even think about it IMO.

Back in the old days I had many friends in Malaysia and and Hong Kong that made a mint with currency, buying the Yuan. Those days are gone my friend.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Gknrd

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

I've looked into buying the Yuan, it is a dead end street. I also own some Chinese stock.. Same thing there IMHO.. Do what you want, and best of luck to you.. I will stick with the numbers. Years ago I made a few bucks with Chinese stocks.. Now, lord you would have to be an idiot to even think about it IMO.

Back in the old days I had many friends in Malaysia and and Hong Kong that made a mint with currency, buying the Yuan. Those days are gone my friend.

Try looking at FSSA Asia Focus 

 

Either 

Sedol BWNGXJ8

or ISIN GB00BWNGXJ86

[Gknrd]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Try looking at FSSA Asia Focus 

 

Either 

Sedol BWNGXJ8

or ISIN GB00BWNGXJ86

Ok