Finance Minister Projects 3.8% Growth This Year

[snoop1130]

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has projected that Thailand’s economy will grow by 3.8% in 2023, with the rebound of the vital tourism sector contributing to the growth.

 

Speaking on a Radio Thailand program, Minister Arkhom said the increase in domestic spending and an acceleration in investment in large projects would further boost growth.

 

According to the finance minister, tourism in particular is expected to play a crucial role in the country’s economic recovery. The country is now projected to receive 27.5 million foreign visitors this year, following the arrival of 11.15 million visitors last year. This figure, while promising, is still below the nearly 40 million foreign visitors the country had in 2019 before the pandemic.

 

The minister earlier said the nation’s economic growth could exceed the current forecast with the expected return of Chinese tourists. However, he cautioned against aggressive interest rate hikes, which could lead to increased business costs and household debt.

 

The country’s headline inflation is further expected to fall within the central bank’s target range of 1% to 3% this year, owing to government measures and lower food prices. He noted, however, that despite the fall in export volumes, an exchange rate of 34 to 35 Thai baht per US dollar, as recorded last week, would be beneficial for export prices.

 

Source: https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG230227104315875

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2023-02-27

 

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[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

According to the finance minister, tourism in particular is expected to play a crucial role in the country’s economic recovery.

Why is Tourism to play a crucial role? What about Exports, Investments as they say they are obtaining and then of course the supposed low inflation?  I seem to be a little concerned with this finance ministers statement when in the past we have heard that 12% of the GDP is from tourism, and a max of 20%, so just how can that small percentage play such a crucial role?

[RichardColeman]

Only 3.8% with the return of an extra 20,000,000 tourists ? Damn, exports must be about to go down the toilet due to the mad baht

[nigelforbes]

13 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Why is Tourism to play a crucial role? What about Exports, Investments as they say they are obtaining and then of course the supposed low inflation?  I seem to be a little concerned with this finance ministers statement when in the past we have heard that 12% of the GDP is from tourism, and a max of 20%, so just how can that small percentage play such a crucial role?

Because international tourism is classified as an export within gdp. What he's saying is that the export of tourism services should componsate for the downturn in the export of goods, but only if 20 mill. Or more. Exports are exports, be they goods or services. 

[nigelforbes]

34 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Because international tourism is classified as an export within gdp. What he's saying is that the export of tourism services should componsate for the downturn in the export of goods, but only if 20 mill. Or more. Exports are exports, be they goods or services. 

To add: exports are about 70% (which is goods and services) and international tourism (which is an export service) is 12% of that. I'm trying to write a piece currently that explains how GDP is structured and compiled because few people seem to understand. I'll post it after my holiday.

[Lucky Bones]

Lottery tomorrow.

#38 (3.8%) is a shoo- in????????

[vivananahuahin]

i remember thatca minister says,in the beginning of the pandemic with all closed that he says that tourism revenue was not important and now they change the attitude, export go down, GDP growth rate -1,5%!!!!!

[ThailandRyan]

10 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Because international tourism is classified as an export within gdp. What he's saying is that the export of tourism services should componsate for the downturn in the export of goods, but only if 20 mill. Or more. Exports are exports, be they goods or services. 

It would be an import Nigel they aren't exporting tourists to other countries....

[zzaa09]

Wonder if this suspected growth sees it's way trickling down to the benefit of the working classes - the real strength and reflection of any economy. 

 

Nah.....probably not. 

[nigelforbes]

19 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It would be an import Nigel they aren't exporting tourists to other countries....

That's not how it works. International tourism is an export, read the baht thread post and you will understand. International tourism is defined as something paid for here, using imported funds and where something is then taken back out of Thailand again. What is taken out is the holiday experience. You must be the only poster on anf who hasn't got this yet

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by nigelforbes

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

That's not how it works. International tourism is an export, read the baht thread post and you will understand. International tourism is defined as something paid for here, using imported funds and where something is then taken back out of Thailand again. What is taken out is the holiday experience. You must be the only poster on anf who hasn't got this yet

 

 

Why read your thread and op, again that's all your own view

Edited February 28, 2023 by ThailandRyan

[nigelforbes]

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Why read your thread and op, again that's all your own view

Nope, it's mostly all basic Thai economic fact. But if you want try and disprove any of it, have at it....but you'll need to show supportive facts. You're out on a limb on this, best you climb down the tree..

 

And the part about international tourism being an export, every country does things the same way, that's why it's called an invisible export.

Edited February 28, 2023 by nigelforbes

[Pedrogaz]

Who cares what the projection is in February. The only thing we know is that the projection is dead wrong and will be relentlessly revised down as the months fly by. Waste of time and space.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

Who cares what the projection is in February. The only thing we know is that the projection is dead wrong and will be relentlessly revised down as the months fly by. Waste of time and space.

Maybe, maybe not. The point is that GDP is huge, over 520 bill. US. Half a percent is a big number that government needs to watch closely so they can respond quickly if it does start to fall. Who cares? Everyone should.

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Nope, it's mostly all basic Thai economic fact. But if you want try and disprove any of it, have at it....but you'll need to show supportive facts. You're out on a limb on this, best you climb down the tree..

 

And the part about international tourism being an export, every country does things the same way, that's why it's called an invisible export.

And most certainly not that terribly influential on the economic sector. 

Yet, repeated often and loud enough that it is. 

[nigelforbes]

6 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

And most certainly not that terribly influential on the economic sector. 

Yet, repeated often and loud enough that it is. 

International tourism in GDP terms is nothing more than an extension of exports, albeit it arises in a different part of both the economy and the GDP model. If folks would stop calling it international tourism and simply refer to it as exports, things would be easier to understand. So yes, unfortunately international tourism is every bit as important to GDP, as how many boxes of widgets get exported to Timbuktu.

 

[nigelforbes]

11 hours ago, vivananahuahin said:

i remember thatca minister says,in the beginning of the pandemic with all closed that he says that tourism revenue was not important and now they change the attitude, export go down, GDP growth rate -1,5%!!!!!

It's complicated! 

 

International tourism may not have been important to the exports picture but when gdp is looked at from a different angle, that revenue becomes important to consumer spending within gdp. Its difficult to know what his focus was at the time or whether he really understood. The gdp model is complex and the terminology involved is not well understood by everyone. Exports include international tourism, exports also includes goods and services. The income from international tourism drives consumer spending.