El Niño, a global weather phenomenon, looks set to return this summer.

[Social Media]

 

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If it does, as the article points out, the odds are good that 2024 will be a year of record breaking temperatures. One of the lies told by denialists in the early 21st century is that because the sea and air (troposphere actually) weren't as warm as they were in 1998, that means that global warming was over. It was clearly a lie because as any honorable researcher would tell you, you don't set your baseline with an anomalous year; 1997-98 saw an enormous El Nino which temporarily boosted temperatures way above the trend line. But the trend was still there. And in 2005, the year of a mild El Nino, the record was broken. At it was again in 2010, another mild el nino year. And in 2016, the year of a very strong El Nino. The thing is, that 1997-98 no longer even figures in the top 10. In fact, average temperatures in several years of La Nina, which exerts a cooling effect on the atmosphere, have exceeded the average temperature for 1997-98. Of course, now there are denialists who claim falsely, just as those in the early 20th century did,  that because no temperatures subsequent to 2016 have broken its record, therefore global warming is over. They disregard the fact that the last 8 years have been the hottest on record. And they don't seem to have a clue about trendlines.

[kwilco]

for the last 3 years we have had the effects of La Nina so what is the difference?

El Niño and La Niña affect not only ocean temperatures, but also how much it rains on land. Depending on which cycle occurs (and when), this can mean either droughts or flooding. Typically, El Niño and its warm waters are associated with drought, while La Niña is linked to increased flooding..

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The primary difference between La Niña and El Niño is the pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

During El Niño, SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than usual, while during La Niña, these same waters become colder than usual. In addition, El Niño tends to result in weaker trade winds and more rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific, while La Niña typically results in stronger trade winds and drier conditions over this region.

These changes in SSTs and atmospheric conditions can have significant impacts on weather patterns around the globe, affecting everything from rainfall and temperature patterns to agricultural productivity, fisheries, and natural disasters such as floods and droughts.

Edited April 12, 2023 by kwilco