UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

So what? Means nothing. You cannot just cherry pick 2020 (3 years ago) and 7 countries and make out its a strong argument cause it is not. It's called cherry picking for a reason. You ignore the most current years plus other nations. Just a weak outdated point.

 

 

 

I"m not the one who cherry picked anything. You did. You chose those years. And you still haven't told me what in the Telegraph article I linked to contradicts what I wrote. You made a claim, now please back it up.

[bignok]

Just now, placeholder said:

I"m not the one who cherry picked anything. You did. You chose those years. And you still haven't told me what in the Telegraph article I linked to contradicts what I wrote. You made a claim, now please back it up.

2022 is the most current year. UK did well. No 1 in G7 in your link.

 

Anyway Sir good day.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

2022 is the most current year. UK did well. No 1 in G7 in your link.

 

Anyway Sir good day.

It's not that flash. The percentage change on previous quarter in the first chart is the worst of the G7 nations. And the second chart % change since 2019. Abysmal

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by ozimoron

[bignok]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

It's not that flash. The percentage change on previous quarter in the first chart is the worst of the G7 nations. And the second chart % change since 2019. Abysmal

 

Germany was bad. No need to panic over 3 months.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, bignok said:

So what? Means nothing. You cannot just cherry pick 2020 (3 years ago) and 7 countries and make out its a strong argument cause it is not. It's called cherry picking for a reason. You ignore the most current years plus other nations. Just a weak outdated point.

 

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, bignok said:

Good link.

 

Among G7 countries, the United Kingdom recorded the highest annual growth in 2022 (4.0%), followed by Italy (3.8%) and Canada (3.6%), while Japan recorded the lowest growth (1.1%). Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Ireland recorded the highest annual growth in 2022 (12.2%), while Latvia recorded the lowest (1.5%).

Actually, 2020 is integral to your claim about the high growth rate in 2021 and 2022. If 2020's growth rate hadn't shrunk so much, the 2021 and 2022's growth rate wouldn't have been so high. This is basic math. If you start with a low baseline, then it's easier to score a higher percentage. But in absolute terms, the other G7 nations managed to exceed their 2019 results in 2021. Not the UK. 

[ozimoron]

Just now, bignok said:

Germany was bad. No need to panic over 3 months.

Three years is a different story.

[bignok]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

Three years is a different story.

Covid impact. So not just pure economics. Health factors, political factors.

 

The last 12 months pretty good.

 

 

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, bignok said:

Covid impact. So not just pure economics. Health factors, political factors.

 

The last 12 months pretty good.

Covid impact far worse in the UK than peer nations? Do you expect us to believe that? Try Brexit impact, the single factor differentiating the UK from the other G7 nations.

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Covid impact far worse in the UK than peer nations? Do you expect us to believe that? Try Brexit impact, the single factor differentiating the UK from the other G7 nations.

As voted by the people.

[placeholder]

19 minutes ago, bignok said:

So what? Means nothing. You cannot just cherry pick 2020 (3 years ago) and 7 countries and make out its a strong argument cause it is not. It's called cherry picking for a reason. You ignore the most current years plus other nations. Just a weak outdated point.

 

 

 

So what? Spain is not included in the G7 for a very good reason. It's not one of the world's 7 leading economies. So more dissimilar to UK economically than the other 6 members of the G7 are. So comparisons are less valid. And as I already have pointed out, without the dismal performance in 2020, the rebound in 2021 and 2022 wouldn't have looked so strong. And it remains a fact that the UK to date hasn't managed once to top its economic performance in 2019. The only G7 nation not to have managed that.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

As voted by the people.

So you're now admitting it was brexit. Good. The same people wouldn't vote for it again.

[bignok]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

So what? Spain is not included in the G7 for a very good reason. It's not one of the world's 7 leading economies. So more dissimilar to UK economically than the other 6 members of the G7 are. So comparisons are less valid. And as I already have pointed out, without the dismal performance in 2020, the rebound in 2021 and 2022 wouldn't have looked so strong. And it remains a fact that the UK to date hasn't managed once to top its economic performance in 2019. The only G7 nation not to have managed that.

Most economists look at the OECD not top 7. 7 nations is a small sample.

Anyway please stop quoting me. 

 

 

[bignok]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

So you're now admitting it was brexit. Good. The same people wouldn't vote for it again.

No it's both.  Never 1 factor. 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

No it's both.  Never 1 factor. 

It's not reasonable top assume that the covid effect was exactly the same in the UK as the other G7 nations and therefore wouldn't appear on a relative chart?

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

It's not reasonable top assume that the covid effect was exactly the same in the UK as the other G7 nations and therefore wouldn't appear on a relative chart?

No cause shutdowns were different in each nation. Plus economies have different structures.

 

Brexit handling a disaster. If handled better maybe still negative but the whole thing has been botched.

 

But based on your link on OECD the UK isnt doing so bad. Could be better of course.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

Most economists look at the OECD not top 7. 7 nations is a small sample.

Anyway please stop quoting me. 

According to the rules I can quote you so long as I don't misquote you or edit your comments in such a way as to misrepresent their intent. No rules against quoting fellow members of aseannow.com.

And here are the members of the OECD. Quite an economically disparate lot as the list i've linked to shows

https://www.oecd.org/about/document/ratification-oecd-convention.htm

 

[bignok]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

According to the rules I can quote you so long as I don't misquote you or edit your comments in such a way as to misrepresent their intent. No rules against quoting fellow members of aseannow.com.

And here are the members of the OECD. Quite an economically disparate lot as the list i've linked to shows

https://www.oecd.org/about/document/ratification-oecd-convention.htm

 

You are arguing non stop. I dont see what your point is. 30 quotes no point other than 2020 was bad. 3 years ago.

 

I don't want to talk about 2020 for the next 2 days with you. There is no purpose or point. It's 11.41pm.

 

Find someone else to discuss 2020 with at midnight.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

Just now, bignok said:

You are arguing non stop. I dont see what your point is. 30 quotes no point other than 2020 was bad. 3 years ago.

 

I don't want to talk about 2020 for the next 2 days with you. There is no purpose or point. It's 11.41pm.

 

Find someone else to discuss 2020 with at midnight.

I get it. It's me who hasn't stopped. Not you.

 

[ozimoron]

38 minutes ago, bignok said:

No cause shutdowns were different in each nation. Plus economies have different structures.

 

Brexit handling a disaster. If handled better maybe still negative but the whole thing has been botched.

 

But based on your link on OECD the UK isnt doing so bad. Could be better of course.

 

 

 

What specifically made covid affect the UK economy more than others in the G7?

[still kicking]

[placeholder]

42 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

What specifically made covid affect the UK economy more than others in the G7?

Well, the UK did have a very foolish PM who seemed to go out of his way to get infected. That didn't send a great message. 

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, the UK did have a very foolish PM who seemed to go out of his way to get infected. That didn't send a great message. 

You got that wrong then, the US president did exactly the same thing.

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

You got that wrong then, the US president did exactly the same thing.

And the US fared badly, too.

[candide]

On 4/13/2023 at 8:47 PM, candide said:

Obviously, there is also a convergence of independent forecasts towards similar numbers.

Official Statistics

Forecasts for the UK economy: March 2023

A comparison of independent forecasts for the UK economy in March 2023.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/forecasts-for-the-uk-economy-march-2023

 

 

3 hours ago, bignok said:

Your link said the opposite of what you said. UK was no 1 in G7 in 2022. You said they were the worst.

 

Forecasts are just guesses and IMF ones are lower than other forecasts.

 

The facts are the UK did pretty well in 2021 and 2022. So not bad at all.

 

 

 

The World Bank, as well as 17 independent forecasts (see my post above) are convergent, and make similar forecasts.

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Tell that to the Health Service workers who are having to go to food banks to feed their families.

 

But "I'm OK, Jack" lives on. 

 

PH

As one of those "health service workers" that was underpaid, I was prepared to go on strike till we got paid what we were worth, but not enough others were, so they continued to get underpaid- IMO they only had themselves to blame.

I didn't continue to be voluntarily underpaid as I went to a different country where I did get paid what I was worth. Recently, nurses are in high demand around the world and nurses are choosing to go where they are better paid, which means that the countries that don't value their nurses are missing out.

If nurses are actually having to go to food banks to feed their families ( what are their partners doing to feed their families? ), they should ask themselves why they didn't take action about it in the past.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As one of those "health service workers" that was underpaid, I was prepared to go on strike till we got paid what we were worth, but not enough others were, so they continued to get underpaid- IMO they only had themselves to blame.

I didn't continue to be voluntarily underpaid as I went to a different country where I did get paid what I was worth. Recently, nurses are in high demand around the world and nurses are choosing to go where they are better paid, which means that the countries that don't value their nurses are missing out.

If nurses are actually having to go to food banks to feed their families ( what are their partners doing to feed their families? ), they should ask themselves why they didn't take action about it in the past.

Nurses are going on strike, Doctors too.

 

Enough, has become enough.

 

Not everyone has a ‘partner’.

[bannork]

The world is not your oyster post Brexit. More economic damage

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, bannork said:

The world is not your oyster post Brexit. More economic damage

 

I remember when Brexiters were indignant about the share of catch that non UK members were taking and how vociferous they were about defending the fishermen. Brexit has been a disaster for them and not a peep of indignation from Brexiters.

[youreavinalaff]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I remember when Brexiters were indignant about the share of catch that non UK members were taking and how vociferous they were about defending the fishermen. Brexit has been a disaster for them and not a peep of indignation from Brexiters.

The first paragraph clearly states "we decided to scale back our exports". It was their decision. A bad one it seems.

 

There are many other sea food exporters that took the decision to continue their exports as the same level and even expand. They are doing well.

Edited April 18, 2023 by youreavinalaff

[Chomper Higgot]

11 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

The first paragraph clearly states "we decided to scale back our exports". It was their decision. A bad one it seems.

 

There are many other sea food exporters that took the decision to continue their exports as the same level and even expand. They are doing well.

And you can provide examples?