Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold Bars?

[bignok]

How do you value gold? Their is no standard method like with property or shares. I have no idea why gold is worth what it is.

[bignok]

As far as I know the 4 year average price is about 1720 and the 10 year is 1500. Current price is about 2020 so it is overpriced by at least 300.

[save the frogs]

17 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

If the Thai ingot price gets to 33500 in the next week or so, I actually might sell.

is it all on paper?

or you have physical ingots? so where do you store them?

 

[Buffy Frobisher]

2 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

So I should avoid 96.9%? now I'm getting confused.

See what @Adumbrationsaid about Thai vs overseas. I only buy 99.9% so that I can move it out of Thailand. If you want to trade just in Thailand then buying Thai gold makes sense.

[owl sees all]

On 5/3/2023 at 4:29 PM, CharlieKo said:

That is a really bad idea considering you pay more for jewellery, compared to baht bricks. The OP would be better buying small bricks of less that 1 baht weight. though 1 baht bricks are an ideal size. Take a look at Aurora website.      

The difference you pay more for jewellery, compared to baht bricks, in Thailand, is negligible.

 

  A one baht lump of gold is of little use to you in a market when you just want a 40 baht pair of shoes. What ya gonna do? Invite the vendor to take a nibble?.

 

 

[CharlieKo]

41 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

A one baht lump of gold is of little use to you in a market when you just want a 40 baht pair of shoes. What ya gonna do? Invite the vendor to take a nibble?.

For 40 baht, I doubt the vendor would be that desperate to take a few links from a chain for payment. At least a baht brick is hallmarked. show me a chain where each link is hallmarked? 

 

On another level, lets hope it never gets that bad that you have to barter gold for goods. Besides those 40 baht shoes might be more like 40,000 baht shoes at that stage!  

[USEpat]

No. Not at about US$2050/oz.

[owl sees all]

12 hours ago, CharlieKo said:

For 40 baht, I doubt the vendor would be that desperate to take a few links from a chain for payment. At least a baht brick is hallmarked. show me a chain where each link is hallmarked? 

 

On another level, lets hope it never gets that bad that you have to barter gold for goods. Besides those 40 baht shoes might be more like 40,000 baht shoes at that stage!  

Exactly!!

 

It will start with the demise of the 'petro-dollar'. Oil will be sold in currencies other than the PD. That will inevitably lead to the Dollar US going belly-up. When that happens, all the FIAT currencies will struggle. Bartering will come back. Gold will be the true money. Silver also; but not in Thailand. where it's not seen as a precious metal.

 

In other times there have been currencies other than bits of paper. In the nick, tobacco is used. Back In the day in the US it was hemp. In some African countries it is; onions (for instance).

 

The world is on a precipice. WW111 could break out at any time. And that may well coincide with the US$ crash. 

 

My point about chunky chains and one gram gold pieces, is that they would be more fungible/bartererable than a big bar. Banks will be closed. Gold shops also. ATMs of no use. International money transfers impossible

 

Get into gold! Even one kilo blocks if that's all that's available. Don't fancy gold; or have enough? Invest in one of those machines that accurately give the gold content of the block/link/lump. They will be sought after; big time; at the markets and malls.

 

[CharlieKo]

2 hours ago, owl sees all said:

The world is on a precipice. WW111 could break out at any time. And that may well coincide with the US$ crash. 

In case you hadn't noticed, other countries are dumping the dollar and buying gold. That is to protect their own currencies. Not to mention they will probably create CBDC's. So, hopefully what happens in the USA won't effect the world. 

 

There will not be a WW3. 

[owl sees all]

13 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

In case you hadn't noticed, other countries are dumping the dollar and buying gold. That is to protect their own currencies. Not to mention they will probably create CBDC's. So, hopefully what happens in the USA won't effect the world. 

 

There will not be a WW3. 

It is true that some countries are trying to lessen their exposure to their US$ commitments. But I don't see dumping. If the US$ goes kaput it will have a profound effect on FIAT currencies throughout the world. AS for buying gold. I can't find out who has large stores of gold to sell. And an estimated 40% of the world's gold is held by individuals, so they can't get their hands on that. Can they? Not so sure if one lives in the US.

 

Hope you are right about WW3 not happening. I've got my bunker and stores ready; just in case.

 

But to return to the OP. Buy, buy buy!.

 

[CharlieKo]

27 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Buy, buy buy!

Buy Bitcoin. 

[ozimoron]

The price of gold is currently $2015. I don't think it's going to go down much. I just lost $200 in half an hour when it dropped yesterday. I knew it would drop but I was trapped out of hours in an ETF. I need to learn to trade futures.

 

Probable options are.:

 

1. The retracement is done. It got to a trend line and the .7 fib level.

 

2. It could retrace back to the 20 day ma as a retest about 2000.

 

3. It could retrace back to the 50 day moving average about 1985.

 

4. It could retest the bottom of a major channel and the 200 day ms around 1950. From this candlestick rejection of the top of the trend channel, it took 24 days to reach the bottom so it could intersect at around that level. This time however there is a wicked evening star at the top of the channel. I suspect there may be some more impulsive selling from that.

 

I'm currently out of the market waiting as I only want to buy long on an ETF for gold at present. The big movements have been out of hours lately so I've missed some opportunities but I do think the buy cheap and hold moment is coming soon, if it hasn't already. I believe that it'll be difficult to sustain moves below $2,000 for long. We'll see.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 5/3/2023 at 1:30 PM, Celsius said:

Buy for what? Terrible investment. 

 

The money supply went up 10X in the past 10 years. Gold should be at minimum 10,000 by now if it was following this trend and what it was designed to do. Now hardly up in the past 10 years.

 

Agreed. Gold's price rose recently due to banking industry troubles and uncertainty about economic growth... Depends for how long one wants to invest; 10, 20, or 30 years? If so, maybe a good investment, but who knows what it will be worth in, say, 20 years...

[CharlieKo]

11 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The big movements have been out of hours lately so I've missed some opportunities

That is the problem trading gold ETF's from Thailand! What happens when people want to cash out of ETF's. Another missed opportunity! Physical gold is the way to go.  

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

That is the problem trading gold ETF's from Thailand! What happens when people want to cash out of ETF's. Another missed opportunity! Physical gold is the way to go.  

The shops are still closed late at night just like the ETF's.

[bignok]

34 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The price of gold is currently $2015. I don't think it's going to go down much. I just lost $200 in half an hour when it dropped yesterday. I knew it would drop but I was trapped out of hours in an ETF. I need to learn to trade futures.

 

Probable options are.:

 

1. The retracement is done. It got to a trend line and the .7 fib level.

 

2. It could retrace back to the 20 day ma as a retest about 2000.

 

3. It could retrace back to the 50 day moving average about 1985.

 

4. It could retest the bottom of a major channel and the 200 day ms around 1950. From this candlestick rejection of the top of the trend channel, it took 24 days to reach the bottom so it could intersect at around that level. This time however there is a wicked evening star at the top of the channel. I suspect there may be some more impulsive selling from that.

 

I'm currently out of the market waiting as I only want to buy long on an ETF for gold at present. The big movements have been out of hours lately so I've missed some opportunities but I do think the buy cheap and hold moment is coming soon, if it hasn't already. I believe that it'll be difficult to sustain moves below $2,000 for long. We'll see.

That Fib stuff is a load of <deleted> imo

[bignok]

18 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

That is the problem trading gold ETF's from Thailand! What happens when people want to cash out of ETF's. Another missed opportunity! Physical gold is the way to go.  

Nasdaq and S@P 500 etfs are far better.

[CharlieKo]

9 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The shops are still closed late at night just like the ETF's.

why would I trade physical gold like an ETF? Gold is a hedge against the stupidity of governments printing money. besides the gold price is fixed by the London and Chicago metals exchanges. And when they are not able to fix that price, is when the fun really starts. I don't fancy your chances of getting your cash out when the. 

[bignok]

1 minute ago, CharlieKo said:

why would I trade physical gold like an ETF? Gold is a hedge against the stupidity of governments printing money. besides the gold price is fixed by the London and Chicago metals exchanges. And when they are not able to fix that price, is when the fun really starts. I don't fancy your chances of getting your cash out when the. 

Not fixed, it is a market. Manipulated though. Large spreads not very good unless you buy after a dip. It has risen for months and overpriced.

 

https://www.fool.com.au/2022/11/07/the-only-2-index-funds-in-warren-buffetts-portfolio-and-how-they-could-make-you-money-usfeed/

[CharlieKo]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

Nasdaq and S@P 500 etfs are far better.

until they are not! ETF's will be the first to crumble when the recession hits. 

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

until they are not! ETF's will be the first to crumble when the recession hits. 

Yeah sure. Tell that to Buffet.

[CharlieKo]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

Not fixed, it is a market. Manipulated though. Large spreads not very good unless you buy after a dip. It has risen for months and overpriced.

 

https://www.fool.com.au/2022/11/07/the-only-2-index-funds-in-warren-buffetts-portfolio-and-how-they-could-make-you-money-usfeed/

fixed or manipulated is all the same thing. By the time you are able to react to a price movement, it's all over. You are playing against some pretty big players. Joe public doesn't stand a chance. 

[CharlieKo]

2 minutes ago, bignok said:

Yeah sure. Tell that to Buffet.

You think Buffet won't cash out  when the time comes. Think again?

[bignok]

Just now, CharlieKo said:

You think Buffet won't cash out  when the time comes. Think again?

He buys all the dips until dead. Gold had a massive bull run in 1990s and early 2000s. It only has big bull runs over few decades. Not due til 2030s to do much.

[CharlieKo]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

He buys all the dips until dead. Gold had a massive bull run in 1990s and early 2000s. It only has big bull runs over few decades. Not due til 2030s to do much.

Like I said, You really think he won't cash out when the time comes. Or is he going to give you a heads up that he is selling? Not bloody likely!

[bignok]

https://tavex.se/en/historical-gold-bull-runs-and-gold-price-in-the-past-100-years-with-infographic/

 

Next bull market due to start in 2030!

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

Like I said, You really think he won't cash out when the time comes. Or is he going to give you a heads up that he is selling? Not bloody likely!

Cash out of what? He buys and holds for 30 years. You dont have a clue about how he invests.

[CharlieKo]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

Cash out of what? He buys and holds for 30 years. You dont have a clue about how he invests

And by the sounds of it neither do you. If we have a 1930's situation where you need a wheelbarrow full of paper money to buy a loaf of bread. As happened in Germany. Do you really think he is going to watch his investments go to zero? 

 

But hey, It's a free world, only just. It's your right to throw your money away! 

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

And by the sounds of it neither do you. If we have a 1930's situation where you need a wheelbarrow full of paper money to buy a loaf of bread. As happened in Germany. Do you really think he is going to watch his investments go to zero? 

 

But hey, It's a free world, only just. It's your right to throw your money away! 

1930s? Bit out of touch with reality.

[CharlieKo]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

1930s? Bit out of touch with reality.

That comment proves you are no investor. Even if you think you are!