Brexit was Johnson and Johnson was Brexit. Now that he has gone, Britain must think again

[dunroaming]

  On 6/17/2023 at 8:51 AM, RayC said:

Interesting article. Thanks for posting.

 

Imo the author is too pessimistic. There would, undoubtedly, be issues in rejoining but the bottom line is that it would be in both parties' interests.

 

The UK could start to repair the damage done to its' economy, reputation and international standing and the EU regains the benefits of having what is still - despite the damage down - the biggest European power currently outside the bloc (and, yes, the addition of a likely net contributor to the EU budget helps as well).

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Barnier announced in an interview only a week or so ago that Britain would be welcome back in the EU anytime.  Clearly the EU is stronger with the UK in it and the UK is stronger in the EU.  The "in denial" brigade are still strong though and the politicians are desperately (and understandably) trying to avoid the inevitable u-turn needed.  

[nauseus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 10:51 AM, RayC said:

When the UK decides to rejoin the EU, the pound will appreciate overnight by 10+% because of the boost to the economy brought about by, once again, being a part of the world's largest trading bloc. The pound will then increase to an all-time high vis-a-vis the baht within 6 months.

 

(Please read the post to which I am replying before making any 'opinion not fact', 'predict the future', etc. replies?)

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  On 6/17/2023 at 8:59 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

  1 hour ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

The Pound is now doing  quite well against the Baht (44) , if the U.K decided to re-join the E.U , then the Pound will fall against the Baht and it will go back down to 37 .

  Be careful what you wish for 

If the UK rejoins the EU the Pound will be dead.

 

Be careful what you wish for..... 

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:00 AM, dunroaming said:

Barnier announced in an interview only a week or so ago that Britain would be welcome back in the EU anytime.  Clearly the EU is stronger with the UK in it and the UK is stronger in the EU.  The "in denial" brigade are still strong though and the politicians are desperately (and understandably) trying to avoid the inevitable u-turn needed.  

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Of course the French man Barnier would welcome us back to join the E.U. , they tried to stop us leaving in the first place .

[dunroaming]

  On 6/17/2023 at 10:58 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

Starmer/Labour have publicly stated that they will not seek to re-join the E .U and Ed Davey has stated that the Lib/Dems are not a re-join the E.U party .

   I was speaking about the general opinion  of the British public , like, , we left the E.U and now just get on with it .

  

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Well we must listen to different news sources because Ed Davey has said they would seek to re-join the EU and I never said that Starmer did say that Labour would re-join. And although Starmer has said that that he wouldn't,  when push comes to shove and public opinion shifts he will go with the popular view.  He is a politician and they all spin on a sixpence when they are currying favour.

 

But leaving the EU is not like going to the dentist where you have no choice and you just have to "get on with it!"  This toothache can be fixed quite painlessly.

 

 

[nauseus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:00 AM, dunroaming said:

Barnier announced in an interview only a week or so ago that Britain would be welcome back in the EU anytime.  Clearly the EU is stronger with the UK in it and the UK is stronger in the EU.  The "in denial" brigade are still strong though and the politicians are desperately (and understandably) trying to avoid the inevitable u-turn needed.  

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What Barnier announced does not matter. He is no longer an officer of the EU.

 

[Gaccha]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:00 AM, dunroaming said:

Britain would be welcome back in the EU anytime

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But would the UK get the amazing deal they had before? This sheer number of fantastic optouts would surely not be allowed again.

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:12 AM, dunroaming said:

Well we must listen to different news sources because Ed Davey has said they would seek to re-join the EU

 

 

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Here is my source

"The Liberal Democrats are not the party of rejoining the European Union, Sir Ed Davey has said."

   Post your source stating otherwise 

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news-westminster-news-ed-davey-on-lib-dems-brexit-6912010/

 

[nauseus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:15 AM, Gaccha said:

But would the UK get the amazing deal they had before? This sheer number of fantastic optouts would surely not be allowed again.

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Most of these "fantastic optouts", rebates and vetoes had disappeared before we left. 

 

But, yes, going back in would be much, much worse. 

[3NUMBAS]

a witch hunt for all the mistakes made in covid ,which nobody had dealt with before

 

sky reporters and 1 bbc reporter out to got boris

 

but he will come back with farage and get back at tories as boris has millions of tory supporters who will vote for him 

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:03 AM, nauseus said:

  On 6/17/2023 at 8:59 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

  1 hour ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

The Pound is now doing  quite well against the Baht (44) , if the U.K decided to re-join the E.U , then the Pound will fall against the Baht and it will go back down to 37 .

  Be careful what you wish for 

If the UK rejoins the EU the Pound will be dead.

 

Be careful what you wish for..... 

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That is debatable.

 

Yes, the UK would need to commit to joining the Euro. However, whether  and when that would actually happen is another matter: Sweden has been obligated to join the Euro since the mid-90s but shows little sign of doing so.

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:05 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

Of course the French man Barnier would welcome us back to join the E.U. , they tried to stop us leaving in the first place .

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How so?

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:40 AM, RayC said:

How so?

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You do know how I am going to reply, don't you ?

I don't have to write it, because you already know what I am going to say .

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:13 AM, nauseus said:

What Barnier announced does not matter. He is no longer an officer of the EU.

 

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But as a recent senior bureaucrat and someone who is still vocal on EU matters, it's not unreasonable to assume that he might be indicative of the view in 'Brussels'.

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:15 AM, Gaccha said:

But would the UK get the amazing deal they had before? This sheer number of fantastic optouts would surely not be allowed again.

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Unlikely is the short answer.

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 10:51 AM, RayC said:

When the UK decides to rejoin the EU, the pound will appreciate overnight by 10+% because of the boost to the economy brought about by, once again, being a part of the world's largest trading bloc. The pound will then increase to an all-time high vis-a-vis the baht within 6 months.

 

(Please read the post to which I am replying before making any 'opinion not fact', 'predict the future', etc. replies?)

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There would be a few years of uncertainty between the U.K deciding to join the E.U and actually joining , it would probably take 5-10 years to re-join , so we would have 5-10 years of a weak Pound due to the uncertainty 

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:38 AM, 3NUMBAS said:

a witch hunt for all the mistakes made in covid ,which nobody had dealt with before

 

sky reporters and 1 bbc reporter out to got boris

 

but he will come back with farage and get back at tories as boris has millions of tory supporters who will vote for him 

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The nightmare team of Farage and Johnson????: Now that really would be the time to switch off the lights and leave.

[billd766]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:12 AM, dunroaming said:

Well we must listen to different news sources because Ed Davey has said they would seek to re-join the EU and I never said that Starmer did say that Labour would re-join. And although Starmer has said that that he wouldn't,  when push comes to shove and public opinion shifts he will go with the popular view.  He is a politician and they all spin on a sixpence when they are currying favour.

 

But leaving the EU is not like going to the dentist where you have no choice and you just have to "get on with it!"  This toothache can be fixed quite painlessly.

 

 

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I had to do a Google search to find out who Ed Davey actually is.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Davey

 

Sir Edward Jonathan Davey FRSA (born 25 December 1965) is a British politician who has served as Leader of the Liberal Democrats since 2020.[a] He served in the Cameron–Clegg coalition as Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change from 2012 to 2015 and as Deputy Leader to Jo Swinson in 2019. An "Orange Book" liberal,[3] he has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Kingston and Surbiton since 2017,[4] and from 1997 to 2015.

 

I almost did another Google search to find the Liberal party of the UK.

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:42 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

You do know how I am going to reply, don't you ?

I don't have to write it, because you already know what I am going to say .

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Actually I'm trying to give you a bit of credit.

 

Those who hold the 'They won't let us leave' view generally prescribe to the ridiculous notion that the UK could have remained a member of the Single Market and Customs Union, whilst at the same time, being free of the rules, regulations, processes and procedures governing these entities and, moreover, being free of any financial commitment. By not accepting these proposals, the EU was being unreasonable and therefore trying to prevent the UK from leaving the EU.

 

If that's your view then don't bother replying. However, if you feel that's not the case - and the EU was somehow trying to stop the UK leaving in another way - then I'd be interested to know your thoughts.

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:46 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

There would be a few years of uncertainty between the U.K deciding to join the E.U and actually joining , it would probably take 5-10 years to re-join , so we would have 5-10 years of a weak Pound due to the uncertainty 

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Pure supposition with no evidence to support this view.

 

The last country to adopt the Euro was Croatia at the beginning of this year. Prior to that the Kuna had traded within a relatively narrow range against the Euro for 10+ years.

[vinny41]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:39 AM, RayC said:

That is debatable.

 

Yes, the UK would need to commit to joining the Euro. However, whether  and when that would actually happen is another matter: Sweden has been obligated to join the Euro since the mid-90s but shows little sign of doing so.

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I think the UK would be required to adopt the Euro as a condition of rejoining the EU on day 1 as it would also serve as a message  to other EU countries to stop dragging their feet on the implementation of the euro

Why does the EU allow opt-outs is it the case that if a country doesn't get the opt-outs they are seeking they will leave the EU

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 12:11 PM, RayC said:

Pure supposition with no evidence to support this view.

 

The last country to adopt the Euro was Croatia at the beginning of this year. Prior to that the Kuna had traded within a relatively narrow range against the Euro for 10+ years.

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I didn't even mention the Euro , let alone the UK using the Euro

[vinny41]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:47 AM, RayC said:

The nightmare team of Farage and Johnson????: Now that really would be the time to switch off the lights and leave.

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Good Morning Britain presenter Susannah Reid had a heated exchange with Nigel Farage after the former UKIP leader claimed he could team up with Boris Johnson to “re-fight Brexit battle”.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/susannah-reids-disbelief-at-farages-boris-johnson-claim-who-screwed-up-brexit-150553129.html

[Eloquent pilgrim]

So the OP reads the Guardian, and doesn’t understand how a democratic vote works …. quelle surprise ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Chomper Higgot]

  On 6/17/2023 at 12:18 PM, Eloquent pilgrim said:

So the OP reads the Guardian, and doesn’t understand how a democratic vote works …. quelle surprise ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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There have been examples of one democratic vote resulting in all further democratic votes being banned, but they are not examples to follow.

 

[vinny41]

  On 6/17/2023 at 8:51 AM, RayC said:

Interesting article. Thanks for posting.

 

Imo the author is too pessimistic. There would, undoubtedly, be issues in rejoining but the bottom line is that it would be in both parties' interests.

 

The UK could start to repair the damage done to its' economy, reputation and international standing and the EU regains the benefits of having what is still - despite the damage down - the biggest European power currently outside the bloc (and, yes, the addition of a likely net contributor to the EU budget helps as well).

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Would Europe really want the awkward squad back?

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/would-europe-really-want-the-awkward-squad-back/

 

There is no chance of a quick return to the EU. Neither the UK or EU want it. But, what about the next generation of voters and politicians? If things can change so quickly in the past two years, what about the next 20 years? Could the UK rejoin? Something that seemed far-fetched a few years ago, now seems quite different.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/184934/economics/reasons-why-the-uk-could-rejoin-the-eu/#:~:text=Over time%2C Brexit will have,being closer but still outside.

EU candidate countries

https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/joining-eu_en

I think the jury is still out on Turkiye joining the EU the EU has given Turkiye billions of Euros as part of the accession process and seen very little for those billions of Euros spent

I suspect the EU will want to fast track Ukraine once everything is settled in that region

As the  accession process can take years more than 24 years in Turkiye case

the possibility of the UK rejoining the EU wouldn't be quick and wouldn't be a priority over the existing 8 Candidate countries

•  

 

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 12:18 PM, Eloquent pilgrim said:

So the OP reads the Guardian, and doesn’t understand how a democratic vote works …. quelle surprise ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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They want to keep voting until, they get the result they want , then that vote would be the last one

[RayC]

  On 6/17/2023 at 12:13 PM, vinny41 said:

I think the UK would be required to adopt the Euro as a condition of rejoining the EU on day 1 as it would also serve as a message  to other EU countries to stop dragging their feet on the implementation of the euro

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Maybe but maybe not. Imo if the only/ major stumbling block to the UK rejoining was the adoption of the Euro then I think that the 'Swedish compromise' would come into play.

 

I don't think many EU countries are dragging their feet over adopting the Euro, most seem quite happy to do so. With the exception of those who haven't, most do not meet the conditions for doing so. In the case of Hungary, the EU is probably happy that they don't; most would probably prefer that they simply left the EU. All this is, of course, my opinion.

 

 

  On 6/17/2023 at 12:13 PM, vinny41 said:

Why does the EU allow opt-outs is it the case that if a country doesn't get the opt-outs they are seeking they will leave the EU

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The opt-outs are usually the result of horse-trading around the signing of new Treaties. For example, Major refused to sign the Maastricht Treaty unless the UK had an opt-out on the Social chapter.

[nauseus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 11:39 AM, RayC said:

That is debatable.

 

Yes, the UK would need to commit to joining the Euro. However, whether  and when that would actually happen is another matter: Sweden has been obligated to join the Euro since the mid-90s but shows little sign of doing so.

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Different.

[brewsterbudgen]

  On 6/17/2023 at 10:58 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

Starmer/Labour have publicly stated that they will not seek to re-join the E .U and Ed Davey has stated that the Lib/Dems are not a re-join the E.U party .

   I was speaking about the general opinion  of the British public , like, , we left the E.U and now just get on with it .

  

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Politicians have been known to change their minds!  

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 6/17/2023 at 1:54 PM, brewsterbudgen said:

Politicians have been known to change their minds!  

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Every person can change their minds about something , but until that person does actually change their mind about that certain thing, you cannot make the claim that that person thinks something different from what they currently do .