9 minutes ago, candide said:

The Chinese are playing the long game. If they invade Taiwan, because they are rational, they will only do it when they will be able to do it (they are ready from a military POV), and when the context is favourable ( ex an isolationist government in the U.S.)

Are the Chinese rational? Really? Do Xi's belligerent behavior and decisions smack of rationality? I think he's profoundly irrational. His over-the-top support for Putin is just one instance. He's managed to antagonize all the countries bordering the South China Sea. Who are they going to turn to for support?

9 hours ago, candide said:

The Chinese are quite rational. They just don't have the same objectives as the U.S.

and unlike the West they have long term goals, with a one party system you can bide your time. Biden sounds as if he wants more money for the military.

28 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Are the Chinese rational? Really? Do Xi's belligerent behavior and decisions smack of rationality? I think he's profoundly irrational. His over-the-top support for Putin is just one instance. He's managed to antagonize all the countries bordering the South China Sea. Who are they going to turn to for support?

Beyond the nationalist diatribe served to its people, there are rational strategic concerns about Taiwan and SC sea, for China. For example in terms of sea access, natural resources, and ability to defend itself.

I am not saying I approve it, but from their perspective and strategic goals, it is rational.

On 8/11/2023 at 11:59 PM, Hawaiian said:

If Xi were rational he wouldn't be saber rattling in regards to China's neighbors surrounding the South China Sea.  He is not rational if he thinks invading Taiwan will not backfire.

And what if Xi does actually invade Taiwan ? What if Peoples' Republic of China invades Republic of China ?

Will the USA step in, and invade China ?  I don't think America will. What's the rational thinking regarding war on China, if China attacks Republic of China, Taiwan  ?

Russia has invaded Ukraine. Why on earth would NATO declare war on Russia ? Declaring war on Russia, starting World War Three, because of Ukraine, is stupid and irrational. That's why America hasn't declared war on Russia.

So, why on earth would America fight China over Taiwan ?  How about let a load of Chinese attack another load of Chinese, and let them get on with it. Yes, sanctions against China if they attack Taiwan will be applied. Blocking Chinese goods entering America will hurt America. But it's got to be done.

Edited August 16, 20232 yr by tonbridgebrit

On 8/12/2023 at 3:36 PM, soalbundy said:

and unlike the West they have long term goals, with a one party system you can bide your time. Biden sounds as if he wants more money for the military.

If they're so rational, why is the party doing its best to damage the Chinese economy? They've  managed to scare investors away. Chinese capital is feeling the country. They're managing to take more and more money from the private sector to prop up the money losing state sector. The CCP is actually undermining the strength of China. If it goes to war, it will be out of weakness, not strength.

 

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If they're so rational, why is the party doing its best to damage the Chinese economy? They've  managed to scare investors away. Chinese capital is feeling the country. They're managing to take more and more money from the private sector to prop up the money losing state sector. The CCP is actually undermining the strength of China. If it goes to war, it will be out of weakness, not strength.

 

Yes but that is only at the moment, 10 years ago there was a great rush to invest in China; who knows how things will be in another 5 or 10 years, markets are never static. Corruption, natural catastrophes, and Covid 19 have all played a role. America itself has a huge problem with its debt that can never be repaid, large parts of its borrowing is going towards interest payments on its debt, sooner or later the Emperor will stand there with no clothes. One party systems can take drastic measures to solve their problems, Stalin and Mao are two examples, democracies have a harder time of it. There appears to be fascist tendencies rising in a furtive manner in Europe and not so furtive, if we look at Trump, in America. Each system will try to solve problems in its own way, unfortunately the primitive brain of mankind usually resorts to war as a solution.