EVs Might Not Cost A Butt Load Soon

[placeholder]

For the last decade various research firms have postured that EV batteries need to see prices decline to $100 per kilowatt hour in order to achieve parity with gas cars. In July the average weighted price of a kilowatt hour worth of battery dropped below that for the first time in two years. In spite of significant monetary inflation, prices are still dropping, and soon the price of an electric car drivetrain will be less or equal to a gasoline vehicle to produce.

https://jalopnik.com/evs-might-not-cost-so-much-thanks-to-cheaper-batteries-1850860684

[Bandersnatch]

Not only EV batteries are getting cheaper but also home solar batteries.

 

Back in 2017 I was shopping for home solar batteries at a green energy show in BKK and was quoted:

฿150,000 for 5.6kWh or ฿26,785 per kWh. Four years later I paid:

฿68,000  for  9kWh  or  ฿7,555 per kWh

 

 

[Jenkins9039]

Thailand recently got a new government more aligned to the US than China.

 

A Chinese EV is 12-15,000$.

A US EV / West EV is 40-120,000$.

 

EV's will get more expensive in Thailand as China is using Thailand to build out the EV(s) and circumnavigate the Sanctions on Chips so as to sell into the ASEAN market.

 

US won't allow. 

 

[HarrySeaman]

And as planed Chinese EV car manufacturing plants come online in Thailand the cost of the EV itself will drop here (no 80% import duty).  Cost parity with ICE automobiles will happen amazingly soon.

 

I will add that you should check the safety rating of any automobile before buying it.  Not all ICE or EVs have good safety ratings.  For instance, the Dacia Jogger ICE has a safety rating of 1 and the EV Renault 2021 Zeo has an overall safety rating of 0 (yes, zero!)  All four of the Tesla models have a 5 star safety rating.

 

Euro NCAP Safety ratings

Edited September 22, 2023 by HarrySeaman

[Bandersnatch]

29 minutes ago, Jenkins9039 said:

EV's will get more expensive in Thailand as China is using Thailand to build out the EV(s) and circumnavigate the Sanctions on Chips so as to sell into the ASEAN market.

 

US won't allow.

You think that the US will stop car factories in Thailand from selling cars in Thailand - what do you think they are going to do about it? 

[Stevemercer]

I agree the price of electric cars will go down.

 

However, the price of electricity will go up astronomically. The money for roads maintenance has to come from somewhere (most countries add it as tax to the price of petrol) and will hike up the price of electricity as the uptake of electric cars surge.

 

At the moment the running cost for electric is about half that of petrol. Expect comparative electricity prices to reach parity within 5 years and double within 10 years (when there will be more electric cars on the road than IC cars), Of course, governments will keep adding taxes to petrol to articifically maintain parity.

 

The only way to really save money will be to have a household solar and battery array. Recharge the car overnight from the solar battery. Connect the car battery to the house to run the house when needed.

 

When car batteries typically reach 100 kWh, I would think about buying an electric car. The range, in real world circumstances, would be 500 km and the battery would be big enough to be a useful supplement in a household solar system.

[Bandersnatch]

58 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

the price of electricity will go up astronomically. The money for roads maintenance has to come from somewhere

Rather than spending tax payers money on fossil fuel subsidies it could be spent on roads instead.

 

"Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion or 7.1 percent of GDP in 2022, reflecting a $2 trillion increase since 2020"

https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

 

I charge my EV in the middle of the day after my house batteries are full. I would love to be paid to feed back to the grid at times of peak demand but the feed-in system in Thailand is a low flat rate and only for those with small 5kW systems or smaller. I don't have bi-directional charging but will get it on my next EV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluejets]

15 hours ago, placeholder said:

firms have postured that EV batteries need to see prices decline

Still , you're going to find it harder and harder to get the thing charged, at a resonable fee and rate at least.

 

[Bandersnatch]

6 minutes ago, bluejets said:

you're going to find it harder and harder to get the thing charged, at a resonable fee and rate at least.

How much have you paid for charging an EV in Thailand and what charging companies have you used?

[vinny41]

Later in September last year, SAIC announced that it would team up with CATL to tap into battery swapping business. The Rising Auto R7 was the first vehicle from SAIC to offer battery swap technology, with Roewe, MG, and Maxus brands following suit.

https://carnewschina.com/2023/04/12/maxus-mifa-7-mpv-revealed-in-china-with-swappable-catl-battery/#:~:text=Later in September last year,and Maxus brands following suit.

 

We should also mention that the Rising F7 can be bought without battery. The thing is this liftback is available to swap batteries. As a result, you can get a battery subscription for 1,260 – 1,560 yuan (170 – 215 USD), depending on the battery capacity. As a result, the price range of the F7 will be reduced to 136,900 – 196,400 yuan (18,770 – 27,000 USD)

https://carnewschina.com/2023/08/28/saics-rising-auto-joined-price-war-in-china-rising-f7-price-sliced-by-2750-usd/

 

Will they expand Battery swapping stations to Thailand I guess we will have to wait and see

so you have the choice of buying ev with battery or without battery and paying a battery subscription

Edited September 22, 2023 by vinny41
add

[Purdey]

35 or so years ago a car magazine conducted a survey of efficient transportation with which to enter London. Not much has changed. 

The most environmentally friendly and sustainable ways of travelling are walking, cycling and rail. Cars are the worst but EVs could improve that. 

Vehicles emit the following grams per kilometre travelled:

•    Medium-sized petrol car = 192g.
•    Medium-sized diesel car =171g.
•    Bus = 105g.
•    Motorcycle = 103g.
•    Medium electric vehicle = 53g.
https://www.engineerlive.com/content/what-s-greenest-form-transport

Edited September 22, 2023 by Purdey

[BusyB]

2 hours ago, Purdey said:

35 or so years ago a car magazine conducted a survey of efficient transportation with which to enter London. Not much has changed. 

The most environmentally friendly and sustainable ways of travelling are walking, cycling and rail. Cars are the worst but EVs could improve that. 

Vehicles emit the following grams per kilometre travelled:

•    Medium-sized petrol car = 192g.
•    Medium-sized diesel car =171g.
•    Bus = 105g.
•    Motorcycle = 103g.
•    Medium electric vehicle = 53g.
https://www.engineerlive.com/content/what-s-greenest-form-transport

What's a few grams between friends. How about the volumes? They are phenomenal.

 

1.96g = 1l of CO2

192g = ca. 10l CO2

 

per kilometre. per auto. per day, every day.

 

Imagine the volume of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere every day by Bangkok traffic alone - and there it's even worse, because it takes so much longer to travel a km in Bangkok traffic, so uses more fuel/km, so ejects more CO2. It's an entire city wide smogsworth to a height of hundreds if not thousands of feet, day by day. And that's just Bangkok  and just the traffic.

 

It's awe inspiring and frightening when you start to look at volumes and not harmless little gram numbers.

Edited September 22, 2023 by BusyB

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, bluejets said:

Still , you're going to find it harder and harder to get the thing charged, at a resonable fee and rate at least.

 

Why would it get harder and harder to get it charged? Was that the history of autos powered by gasoline/petrol?

And, of course, for those who have the option of charging at home, it will be much cheaper.

Edited September 22, 2023 by placeholder

[Jenkins9039]

8 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

You think that the US will stop car factories in Thailand from selling cars in Thailand - what do you think they are going to do about it? 

I didn't say that, they wouldn't go after Thai's they would go after the Chinese IP.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

I agree the price of electric cars will go down.

 

However, the price of electricity will go up astronomically. The money for roads maintenance has to come from somewhere (most countries add it as tax to the price of petrol) and will hike up the price of electricity as the uptake of electric cars surge.

 

At the moment the running cost for electric is about half that of petrol. Expect comparative electricity prices to reach parity within 5 years and double within 10 years (when there will be more electric cars on the road than IC cars), Of course, governments will keep adding taxes to petrol to articifically maintain parity.

 

The only way to really save money will be to have a household solar and battery array. Recharge the car overnight from the solar battery. Connect the car battery to the house to run the house when needed.

 

When car batteries typically reach 100 kWh, I would think about buying an electric car. The range, in real world circumstances, would be 500 km and the battery would be big enough to be a useful supplement in a household solar system.

More likely introduce road user charges to stop people using solar to get cheap driving.

NZ has road user charges for all diesel vehicles.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, BusyB said:

What's a few grams between friends. How about the volumes? They are phenomenal.

 

1.96g = 1l of CO2

192g = ca. 10l CO2

 

per kilometre. per auto. per day, every day.

 

Imagine the volume of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere every day by Bangkok traffic alone - and there it's even worse, because it takes so much longer to travel a km in Bangkok traffic, so uses more fuel/km, so ejects more CO2. It's an entire city wide smogsworth to a height of hundreds if not thousands of feet, day by day. And that's just Bangkok  and just the traffic.

 

It's awe inspiring and frightening when you start to look at volumes and not harmless little gram numbers.

One little thing stopping EVs taking over- too expensive. How many million cars on any city's roads every day? Just how many people driving those cars could afford to drive a new EV? Even if they could, there won't be enough EVs to replace all the ICE cars for decades.

I doubt it's going to happen in many people alive now's lifetime.

[placeholder]

19 hours ago, Jenkins9039 said:

Thailand recently got a new government more aligned to the US than China.

 

A Chinese EV is 12-15,000$.

A US EV / West EV is 40-120,000$.

 

EV's will get more expensive in Thailand as China is using Thailand to build out the EV(s) and circumnavigate the Sanctions on Chips so as to sell into the ASEAN market.

 

US won't allow. 

 

No. The Thai govt did not get a govt more aligned to the US than to China. Just because the Thai govt is courting various US firms doesn't mean that the US now has some kind of veto power over Thai govt actions.

China's exports to Thailand were five times US exports to Thailand in 2022

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by placeholder

[placeholder]

18 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

I agree the price of electric cars will go down.

 

However, the price of electricity will go up astronomically. The money for roads maintenance has to come from somewhere (most countries add it as tax to the price of petrol) and will hike up the price of electricity as the uptake of electric cars surge.

 

At the moment the running cost for electric is about half that of petrol. Expect comparative electricity prices to reach parity within 5 years and double within 10 years (when there will be more electric cars on the road than IC cars), Of course, governments will keep adding taxes to petrol to articifically maintain parity.

 

The only way to really save money will be to have a household solar and battery array. Recharge the car overnight from the solar battery. Connect the car battery to the house to run the house when needed.

 

When car batteries typically reach 100 kWh, I would think about buying an electric car. The range, in real world circumstances, would be 500 km and the battery would be big enough to be a useful supplement in a household solar system.

Why will the price of electricity go up astronomically? Is electricity like, say, a rare mineral, so that increased demand means relative scarcity so the cost is increased  I was under the impression that electricity was a product created in many ways and the production could be expanded as demand rises. What's more, I was also under the impression that power generation in Thailand was a government enterprise and that prices were imposed by the government.

[KhunLA]

Don't know about y'all's world, but in my world, EVs are no more expensive than ICEVs.  And usually get more bang for your baht with the EV.

 

If not in TH, then it's your govts tariffs that are making them overpriced.  Same with their control of electric production.  Cost of solar systems also being controlled by govt/energy companies.   

 

Buddha forbid they not have their windfall profits.  MSM media ensuring you stay as ignorant as always ... ????

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Don't know about y'all's world, but in my world, EVs are no more expensive than ICEVs.  And usually get more bang for your baht with the EV.

 

If not in TH, then it's your govts tariffs that are making them overpriced.  Same with their control of electric production.  Cost of solar systems also being controlled by govt/energy companies.   

 

Buddha forbid they not have their windfall profits.  MSM media ensuring you stay as ignorant as always ... ????

Living in denial much? Clearly it's right wing non mainstream media that are consistently most opposed to EVs. And that's reflected in the politics of the posters in this thread re how they view EVs.

[Stevemercer]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Why will the price of electricity go up astronomically? Is electricity like, say, a rare mineral, so that increased demand means relative scarcity so the cost is increased  I was under the impression that electricity was a product created in many ways and the production could be expanded as demand rises. What's more, I was also under the impression that power generation in Thailand was a government enterprise and that prices were imposed by the government.

Electricity is becoming a scarcer resource because governments and the public are baulking at new coal, gas or nuclear base-loading powere stations. Look at the resistance to Thailand trying to build new gas power plants. Renewables will keep adding peak power, but cannot supply more baseline power. As demand continues to rise, prices will continue to rise.

 

All governments tax petrol/gas and the revenues are significant contributions to revenues spent on roads and [ublic infrastructure. This revenue stream will need to be replaced as electric vehicles become increasingly mainstream and demands on domestic electric grids increases. Governments can increase vehicle registration costs or add surcharge taxes to electricity to compensate. They will do both.

 

 

[Stevemercer]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

More likely introduce road user charges to stop people using solar to get cheap driving.

NZ has road user charges for all diesel vehicles.

It's a strange world. NZ adds extra taxes to diesel while Thailand subsidises diesel!

[thaibeachlovers]

24 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

It's a strange world. NZ adds extra taxes to diesel while Thailand subsidises diesel!

Diesel is quite a bit cheaper than petrol in NZ, so the road user charges are to help fix the roads that the trucks destroy. Probably because farmers use diesel tractors off road so one way to stop them having to pay the road user charge if not using the roads.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

Don't know about y'all's world, but in my world, EVs are no more expensive than ICEVs.  And usually get more bang for your baht with the EV.

 

If not in TH, then it's your govts tariffs that are making them overpriced.  Same with their control of electric production.  Cost of solar systems also being controlled by govt/energy companies.   

 

Buddha forbid they not have their windfall profits.  MSM media ensuring you stay as ignorant as always ... ????

The big reason that EVs are not going to sell well as second hand cars is that the cost of replacing batteries is so high. Many if not most drive second hand cars.

[thaibeachlovers]

32 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

Electricity is becoming a scarcer resource because governments and the public are baulking at new coal, gas or nuclear base-loading powere stations.

People are so dumb. They don't want new power stations but will scream when the cost of electricity goes up. As usual the people most affected by rising prices will be those least able to pay more.

Life in this brave new world sucks.

[VocalNeal]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

in my world, EVs are no more expensive than ICEVs.

A Suzuki Celerio is about 420,000 baht. How much is the comparable EV????

[KhunLA]

19 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

A Suzuki Celerio is about 420,000 baht. How much is the comparable EV????

I don't think they make one that crappy, or one anyone would buy.  If you want to drive sh!t, then buy sh!t.

 

You do get what you pay for some times.   EVs in TH are no more expensive than Japanese imports.  

 

Entry level ICEVs, made in TH ... owned a few, never again ...

... nuff said

Edited September 23, 2023 by KhunLA

[vinny41]

48 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

It's a strange world. NZ adds extra taxes to diesel while Thailand subsidises diesel!

Yet to see any electric commercial vehicle available as mass market if Thailand was to follow NZ example and add extra taxes all those taxes would be passed back to the consumer.

Thailand also  subsidises EV is that because they wouldn't sell without the  subsidy

[KhunLA]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The big reason that EVs are not going to sell well as second hand cars is that the cost of replacing batteries is so high. Many if not most drive second hand cars.

Why do people still post the same repetitive false narrative.  New (LFP) batteries won't need replacing for 20+ years, if ever:

 

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

Don't know about y'all's world, but in my world, EVs are no more expensive than ICEVs.  And usually get more bang for your baht with the EV.

 

If not in TH, then it's your govts tariffs that are making them overpriced.  Same with their control of electric production.  Cost of solar systems also being controlled by govt/energy companies.   

 

Buddha forbid they not have their windfall profits.  MSM media ensuring you stay as ignorant as always ... ????

MG4 starting price in the UK is £26,995
MG Mulan (Chinese name for MG4 starting price is £12,653
difference is £14,342 at Chinese prices could buy 2 and still have change
SAIC's MG brand cuts MG Mulan EV price by 17% in China
By Lei Kang/CnEVPost
SAIC Motor's MG brand yesterday announced a limited-time offer of up to 17 percent off for the compact electric crossover MG Mulan.

Between July 1 and July 31, Chinese customers who purchase the MG Mulan will receive a discount of RMB 24,000 ($3,350), bringing the starting price down to RMB 115,800 yuan.

https://cnevpost.com/2023/07/13/saic-mg-cuts-mg-mulan-price-by-17-china/

 

Convert RMB 115,800 to B578,984