Thailand In Ten Years

[canuckamuck]

Recently I began assisting someone in the groundwork of what will be a major investment of both time and money. This project will not likely be profitable for many years. This has started me to imagine what Thailand might be like ten years from now.

I am certainly just a punter, but I can still make a guess. Here is what I think will happen; barring any major shift in world politics or in Thai philosophy.

-Mainstream Media will remain the pawn of government, but underground media and upstart media will begin to take prominence.

-Government will continue to approximate a democratic system but the power will remain with the elite. Business interests will eventually dictate the direction of government once again.

-The gap between upper and lower class will widen, with no substantial changes in middle class.

-Thailand will have fallen behind Vietnam in international trade and will be struggling to regain its Asian tiger status.

-Tourism will have shifted to primarily Asian customers, China, Korea, Russia, and Japan. Thailand will become a destination for the elite traveler. Sorry cheap Charlie, Cambodia is calling.

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish. What is left will become something more corporate and organized (out of the pan and into the fire).

-The southern conflict will continue despite various attempts to settle the dispute. Some regions will be handed special status (self governance) in an attempt to reduce the violence.

-Education will improve through the globalization of information.

This is just an opinion. I put it here so I could hear your opinions.

Maybe Thailand is heading for a renaissance or perhaps a crushing dictatorship.

What do you say?

[jumnien]

Always interesting to speculate what the world and particularly Thailand will be like in 10 years. I know I could not have imagined 10 years ago what my life would be like! I think Thailand will remain a wonderful place to live and raise a family, that's what I'm betting on. That said, I'm sure it will continue to change at a dramatic pace. As much as I detest the current "government", I don't think they will ruin Thailand.

[Mid]

not inclined to make a guess as to the future ,

however I do know that the military is currently strengthening their grip in spite of the election talk .

[think_too_mut]

Back in 2001, on another board, there was a thread "Nightlife in BKK in 5 years":

According to it, last year (2006.) we should have seen:

Patpong as the only night spot in BKK;

Nanaplaza as a general amusement and game playing spot,

Soi Cowboy closed (or even demolished for (then) non-existent train station);

Bargirls have caught up with technology and conduct their trade over the internet, each packing a laptop with a schedule of availability.

All that, in a 55 baht for 1 US$ climate.

Concentrated on such a small scope, how wrong all the predictions were.

[cdnvic]

I don't see much substantial change. The on/off democracy will keep going through it's cycles, and Thailand will continue to modernize, albiet slower than it was in the five years preceeding the coup.

[darkside]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

[canuckamuck]

Always interesting to speculate what the world and particularly Thailand will be like in 10 years. I know I could not have imagined 10 years ago what my life would be like! I think Thailand will remain a wonderful place to live and raise a family, that's what I'm betting on. That said, I'm sure it will continue to change at a dramatic pace. As much as I detest the current "government", I don't think they will ruin Thailand.

I agree it will remain a place to raise a family, I think for that aspect it will actually improve. For foreigners already established, not a lot will change. I am betting on Thailand as a place to raise my family too.

[cdnvic]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

Only if they start selling really really dark sunglasses

[DP25]

I think there is zero chance of Thailand becoming some kind of 'elite' destination that budget travelers cannot afford. The only way for that to happen would be if per capita income and consumer prices in Thailand were to rise above levels in the West, which is not going to happen for many decades, if ever. No matter how much the government may push people into expensive resorts, the common Thai people still needs restaurants and hotels and unless they start putting up no farang allowed signs everywhere, budget travelers will continue to use them.

[farang prince]

Recently I began assisting someone in the groundwork of what will be a major investment of both time and money. This project will not likely be profitable for many years. This has started me to imagine what Thailand might be like ten years from now.

I am certainly just a punter, but I can still make a guess. Here is what I think will happen; barring any major shift in world politics or in Thai philosophy.

-Mainstream Media will remain the pawn of government, but underground media and upstart media will begin to take prominence.

-Government will continue to approximate a democratic system but the power will remain with the elite. Business interests will eventually dictate the direction of government once again.

-The gap between upper and lower class will widen, with no substantial changes in middle class.

-Thailand will have fallen behind Vietnam in international trade and will be struggling to regain its Asian tiger status.

-Tourism will have shifted to primarily Asian customers, China, Korea, Russia, and Japan. Thailand will become a destination for the elite traveler. Sorry cheap Charlie, Cambodia is calling.

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish. What is left will become something more corporate and organized (out of the pan and into the fire).

-The southern conflict will continue despite various attempts to settle the dispute. Some regions will be handed special status (self governance) in an attempt to reduce the violence.

-Education will improve through the globalization of information.

This is just an opinion. I put it here so I could hear your opinions.

Maybe Thailand is heading for a renaissance or perhaps a crushing dictatorship.

What do you say?

The thought of making a long-term investment in time and/or money in Thailand would keep me awake at night.

[canuckamuck]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as “Little Russia by the Sea”. Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

[Heng]

IMO the only thing with real potential for change and affecting change in the above mentioned list is the southern situation. Otherwise it'll be the same circus with different clowns.

[darkside]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

[britmaveric]

same same

Russian mob???? Thais wont have that and russians usually end up on the short stick of any sort business like that which translates to dead.

[JR Texas]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

[darkside]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

i bet you're a barrel of laughs.

[think_too_mut]

Pattaya will increase development until known as “Little Russia by the Sea”. Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

hel_l will freeze before there is little Russia in Pattaya.

There could be more Icelanders or Vatican citizens living in Pattaya than there are Russians.

Even if some of them buy a property there, I doubt they would want to see any drag from their homeland, even if they were crimos themselves.

[think_too_mut]

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

That's why we use handles to identify ourselves on the board, We don't want our current or prospective employers to google us and find something embarrassing about us...

[canuckamuck]

[quote name='JR Texas' date='2007-07-15 11:22:50' post='1419226'

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

This was the kind of response I was hoping to see. Thank you for your opinion.

I can see most of what you say is a definite potential outcome. I will have to disagree about the global warming angle however as Thailand is in a fairly secure position. It is nearly equatorial and has a water supply that is not dependent on glaciers. Also the Himalayas Hydro electric potential has barely been scratched so there is a greater supply of volts available than many realize. Nepal's potential output is second only to Brazil. Still someone would have to find the bucks and the courage to invest in Nepal or Myanmar.

[soundman]

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

Interesting predictions, a little doomsdayish wouldn't you say.

Personally I think the peak period of xenophobia was in 2001 - 2002 & has plateaud , even in a slight decline.

Don't look at all this tightening up of visa regulations as xenophobia - its not. Just realism kicking in. More demand for your product (Thailand for living) - demand a higher standard for the applicants. Australia is as multi-cultural as they come - but if you want to live there or become a citizen the hoops & dollars are far harder than Thailand. Xenophobic - no.

I do believe local terrorism will increase - maybe even a small scale civil war. However, unlikely to affect Bkk too much (say the scale of some European or American cities) & what has Pattaya got to do with making one's point in the Southern conflict?

As to the gap widening b/w the rich & the poor. Its always been there & will always be there in Thailand. What is the difference b/w 0 Baht & 50 mil Baht or O Baht & 100 mil Baht. Same same for the poor person.

The only thing I am greatly concered by is the possibility of Thailand sliding into a Burma style military dictatorship. That would really make things un-pleasant.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[JR Texas]

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

Interesting predictions, a little doomsdayish wouldn't you say.

Personally I think the peak period of xenophobia was in 2001 - 2002 & has plateaud , even in a slight decline.

Don't look at all this tightening up of visa regulations as xenophobia - its not. Just realism kicking in. More demand for your product (Thailand for living) - demand a higher standard for the applicants. Australia is as multi-cultural as they come - but if you want to live there or become a citizen the hoops & dollars are far harder than Thailand. Xenophobic - no.

I do believe local terrorism will increase - maybe even a small scale civil war. However, unlikely to affect Bkk too much (say the scale of some European or American cities) & what has Pattaya got to do with making one's point in the Southern conflict?

As to the gap widening b/w the rich & the poor. Its always been there & will always be there in Thailand. What is the difference b/w 0 Baht & 50 mil Baht or O Baht & 100 mil Baht. Same same for the poor person.

The only thing I am greatly concered by is the possibility of Thailand sliding into a Burma style military dictatorship. That would really make things un-pleasant.

Cheers,

Soundman.

JR Texas to Soundman: What does the insurgency in the south have to do with Pattaya? I should not tell you on an open forum like this.......think about it and the answer will come to you....or drop me a line.

[Jingthing]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

Edited July 15, 2007 by Jingthing

[cdnvic]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

What a dumb comment.

You do realize that Texas has over 20 million people, many of which are not inbred rednecks, but intelligent professionals, artists, and industrialists?

[canuckamuck]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

An elephant sized grain of salt is oxymoronical.

Half a grain of salt would have been more cutting.

Do you help GW with his speeches?

[Jingthing]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

An elephant sized grain of salt is oxymoronical.

Half a grain of salt would have been more cutting.

Do you help GW with his speeches?

No, I am not quite evil enough for that, but thanks for asking.

Actually, I don't even get your point, so I must be stupid too. Grain of salt: small. Elephant sized grain of salt: really big. Why would I want to say half a grain of salt when accusing a predictor of being a Texas sized BS artist?

[Mid]

well JR did have the ..... to put it out there ,

unlike some , self included ,

would only be fair if the detractors pony up also ............................................

[JR Texas]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

JR Texas: Jeeeezzeee U guys are sensitive! For the record, I am not that important......just trying to do what I can to make this crazy world a better place. What I said was my opinion.....that is all. I have made mistakes in the past. My prediction rate? I would say it is excellent......but I am focused on long term global trends.

Basically, all that I am saying is that we, the human species, are not doing what we need to do to create 21st century sustainability.......and that applies to Thailand as well. Lack of focus on the critical issues is catching up to us. The downturn has actually been going on for at least the past 40 years.

Now we have created a worldwide "culture of irresponsibility." But that just might change. There may be some hope.....if Al Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize he may run for the presidency, win again, and change some things.....set a different tone worldwide.

[jbowman1993]

not inclined to make a guess as to the future ,

however I do know that the military is currently strengthening their grip in spite of the election talk .

Good lord Mid, you are the very definition of a broken record. Find a new topic!!!!!!

[jbowman1993]

I imagine life will continue pretty much the same way it has in this wonderful country for the past 2000 years. The people will greet you with a smile and a friendly greeting. The tom yum will be spicy and filling. The bia Sing will go really well with ice cubes when you sit outside drinking it. My wife will be the most amazingly warm caring mother and partner a man could ask for, and her family will still be generous, friendly, and fun to be around.

I've never defined my existance by what the government does, or what the baht is doing. I prefer the more mundane, everyday things, and I think the silent majority on the board do as well.

[Mid]

There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know.

The proverb has been traced back in English to 1546 (John Heywood)

cite