Well, It's Happened . . .

[bendix]

It's 9.45pm and I've just flicked through to Bloomberg. They are reporting that the offshore dollar rate is now 29.85. Yeap, you read it right. 29.85.

I think I'm going to cash up here and go and retire to a cheap third world country. Arizona anyone?

[chinthee]

Can anyone recommend a good high condo with a sturdy balcony for a launchpad? F'ing bloody hel_l!

[PeaceBlondie]

Small comfort tonight, but - that is the offshore rate, isn't it? The onshore rate is still about 33.0001, I hope.

[Maestro]

...Bloomberg... reporting that the offshore dollar rate is now 29.85...

That’s tough. I went to check the onshore (SBC) rate for the Swiss franc just now and today it was 27.52875. I remember it at over 33 not too long ago.

--

Maestro

[Heng]

Well, surely the onshore rate is to follow. Look at the bright side, you're worth more and more in US$ everyday.

[N47HAN]

Well, surely the onshore rate is to follow. Look at the bright side, you're worth more and more in US$ everyday.

Every coin has two sides ,

sry to say to all of you changing dollar to baht , but as im fortunate to be doing it from baht to dollar may we see 20 please

ps while the baht is at it how about back to 37 to the Gbp , will look at living it up in the uk aswell then

Edited July 16, 2007 by N47HAN

[Mid]

I think I'm going to cash up here and go and retire to a cheap third world country. Arizona anyone?

$5 / gal .........................

[waldpyk]

no bendix , i expect more from you ..

oke the baht gains , the "birds" fly up ( no not good english i know ) sure there's a disturbance...

the question is what's causing this disturbance

[teejay]

blew past 30 with no resistance whatsoever.

[teejay]

whether or not the baht strengthens or weakens, i don't really care, because it is what it is.... but I would like to know if the rates will converge, or will we continue to have the dual-rate policy. opinions?

[britmaveric]

dual rate BOT has said as much, be around 33/34. BTW been like that since Dec.

[bendix]

no bendix , i expect more from you ..

oke the baht gains , the "birds" fly up ( no not good english i know ) sure there's a disturbance...

the question is what's causing this disturbance

I'm sorry to disappoint you waldpyk. I'll try harder in future but, really, there are thousands of threads giving their views on what's causing the disturbance, with explanations ranging from the sublime to the ridiculous.

[Irene]

It's 9.45pm and I've just flicked through to Bloomberg. They are reporting that the offshore dollar rate is now 29.85. Yeap, you read it right. 29.85.

I think I'm going to cash up here and go and retire to a cheap third world country. Arizona anyone?

bendix,

I thought I was the only one who noticed that. You think it will be tough for you, then think of the Thai exporters who will receive far lesser billion of bahts from their exports for dollar settlements. I don't know whether it is too late for them to revert the trend short of drastic actions like fixing the rate to 35.

[ThaiWanderer68]

Nice to see. Thais become stronger and US weaker. Would be nice to see that gap close further. On the other hand, means Thai exports could get priced out.

[PeaceBlondie]

Well, surely the onshore rate is to follow. Look at the bright side, you're worth more and more in US$ everyday.

True. If I could hire myself out (illegally) at 350 baht per hour in Chiang Mai (which is well above starting wages here), I'd make $10.50 per hour at current onshore rates. I'll wait until it's over $12 per hour. I only charged $12 per hour to tutor Khmer refugees in Houston, Texas , in 1995!

[pentri]

Well, the devaluation of the dollar is not good news, for sure. The situation is complicated. Besides the export market, the Thai economy has nothing of any real substance going for it; and the export market may start to bleed. America is so bogged-down with the Islamo-fascists that they have, for some time now, been neglecting South East Asia(Singapore has been telling the US about this sense of neglect but to no avail). This has played into the hands of the Chinese, who have been pouring money into Thailand to prop-up its economy. This is one reason the Bhat is up. But for several months now, many foreigners have been losing interest and faith in Thailand: The threat of insurgency in the south; the worsening moral reputation of the country in international eyes; the unfounded speculation in real-estate; the xenophobia; the poor quality of building construction; and the political instability has been contributing to foreigners rethinking the viability of LOS as a place to live. The situation does not look encouraging for expats living in LOS right now, but the future is not as bright as one might interpret for Thailand. Thailand's big brother, China, may wind up like Japan did in its' crash: the Chinese "miracle economy" is not precidated on a develope domestic economy; it is an export economy and the chinese are doing nothing about it. They can't go on the way they are with their currency value. When it falls, guess who will fall with it? Just sit tight and wait. This is a roller-coaster ride to beat all.

[bendix]

Well, the devaluation of the dollar is not good news, for sure. The situation is complicated. Besides the export market, the Thai economy has nothing of any real substance going for it; and the export market may start to bleed. America is so bogged-down with the Islamo-fascists that they have, for some time now, been neglecting South East Asia(Singapore has been telling the US about this sense of neglect but to no avail). This has played into the hands of the Chinese, who have been pouring money into Thailand to prop-up its economy. This is one reason the Bhat is up. But for several months now, many foreigners have been losing interest and faith in Thailand: The threat of insurgency in the south; the worsening moral reputation of the country in international eyes; the unfounded speculation in real-estate; the xenophobia; the poor quality of building construction; and the political instability has been contributing to foreigners rethinking the viability of LOS as a place to live. The situation does not look encouraging for expats living in LOS right now, but the future is not as bright as one might interpret for Thailand. Thailand's big brother, China, may wind up like Japan did in its' crash: the Chinese "miracle economy" is not precidated on a develope domestic economy; it is an export economy and the chinese are doing nothing about it. They can't go on the way they are with their currency value. When it falls, guess who will fall with it? Just sit tight and wait. This is a roller-coaster ride to beat all.

There are so many things wrong with this post, that it's completely impossible to know where to start. Baseless assumptions, bizarre beliefs portrayed as facts, completely unfounded facts unbacked by any evidence or semblance of reality. So I won't bother.

Except to ask, on what do you base your proposition that 1) heaps of Chinese money is pouring into Thailand, 2) that that money is propping up the economy and 3) that that has helped the strong baht?

[samran]

swings and roundabouts.

imports should be relatively cheaper, making it easier for Thai industries to get imported inputs they need to build and do things here. Good for the economy, especially if these are used for infratructure (eg MRT...)

the stonger baht will make exporters think even harder on how they can add value to products that foriegners want. In the longer term, we'll have smarter and more flexible industry as a result.

[bendix]

You're so freaking one-dimensional samran. Surely you know that the really important point about baht appreciation is that bar fines are now roughly $20, up from $15 a year or so ago.

Competitive Thai industries my arse. Get your priorities right man.

[samran]

You're so freaking one-dimensional samran. Surely you know that the really important point about baht appreciation is that bar fines are now roughly $20, up from $15 a year or so ago.

Competitive Thai industries my arse. Get your priorities right man.

Of course, you are right. I had to let go of my mia noi the other week. I couldn't afford her (well I think it was a her). Nok, Tuk and Lek from Nana will be getting fewer visits from me too. Can't bear to think what this is doing to viagra sales in Thailand. .

[backflip]

The "Webby" awards are given annually for the best of "anything": best magazine, best food product, best song. The only real stipulation is that the accpetance speech must be 5 words in length. A couple years ago, Pfizer won a Webby for the development of Viagra. Pfizer's acceptance speech was: "Side effects include extreme gratitude".

[LaoPo]

It's 9.45pm and I've just flicked through to Bloomberg. They are reporting that the offshore dollar rate is now 29.85. Yeap, you read it right. 29.85.

I think I'm going to cash up here and go and retire to a cheap third world country. Arizona anyone?

bendix,

I thought I was the only one who noticed that. You think it will be tough for you, then think of the Thai exporters who will receive far lesser billion of bahts from their exports for dollar settlements. I don't know whether it is too late for them to revert the trend short of drastic actions like fixing the rate to 35.

No...you were not alone..

it was reported in this topic:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1421813

LaoPo

[Gary A]

The exchange rate sure does hurt my dollar income but on the other hand, my condo continues to reap the benefit of the strong baht. Hind sight is 20/20 and makes me wish that I had bought the second condo. Half a cup is better than an empty cup.

[waldpyk]

sure bendix ,hundreds of views

but i missed yours

[chinthee]

Well, I congratulate all you boys and you can slap yourselves on the back for me. You really have a lot to learn about world finance but you will indeed have your chance, very soon.

Have any of you actually lived through a sustained global downturn? No, I thought not. Well, you will get your chance. I love the exuberance of youth, even if not that young, but well shall we say inexperienced. Even at 40 you haven't yet been burned. You should know better by your age. I learned most of this by 20.

[Jimjim]

We shouldn't necessarily panic and jump off high-rises, but it seems to me that a drastic change in baht strength is not a good thing for Thailand. It's be better if it eventually falls back to its usual level.

[joeuk1]

Well, I congratulate all you boys and you can slap yourselves on the back for me. You really have a lot to learn about world finance but you will indeed have your chance, very soon.

Have any of you actually lived through a sustained global downturn? No, I thought not. Well, you will get your chance. I love the exuberance of youth, even if not that young, but well shall we say inexperienced. Even at 40 you haven't yet been burned. You should know better by your age. I learned most of this by 20.

There will be no global downturn

[VegasVic]

whether or not the baht strengthens or weakens, i don't really care, because it is what it is.... but I would like to know if the rates will converge, or will we continue to have the dual-rate policy. opinions?

Teejay, The rates will converge on the way back. The BOT has been trying to bring some stbility to the baht within the country, and has had a limited ability to do this, however outside the country you have FOREX traders, hedge funds and mutual funds bidding the price of the baht up for reasons that are too numerous to get into here. When the chinese equity market comes tumbling down, then the mutual funds and hedge funds will also exit many of their positions in the SET and in doing so will be selling baht denominated investment vehicles and getting dollar denominated (puonds and Euros also, but mostly dollars) redemtions thereby flooding the market with baht, at the same time the FOREX traders will exit their long baht positions and go short or just move elseware in the market. This could happen next month or next spring its anybodys guess, hopefully sooner than later for the Thai export sector and Thai economy as a whole!

[bendix]

sure bendix ,hundreds of views

but i missed yours

I don't have one.

I don't pretend to know the mysteries and vagaries of world financial markets. I have no idea of the thousands of interplaying forces (some rational, some irrational) which drive the relative values of all asset classes, currency included. The only thing I'm 100% certain of is how utterly clueless I am.

If I totally understood them, I would be considerably richer than I am (and it amazes me that all the 'experts' here aren't billionaires already).

All I can do is try to protect my own meagre little stake in the world. I can control only what I can control. I do that by spreading them around the world - get paid in baht, keep a portion of money in one country, another portion somewhere else. Some in cash. Some in shares. Some in bonds. Some in property.

Blah blah blah.

It's not rocket science. I'll never be rich. Conversely, I'll never be poor.

But I sleep at night.

Edited July 18, 2007 by bendix

[xbusman]

Nice post Bendix, my sentiments exactly as well. The more I learn, the only thing I really know is how little I really know.

I studied under some pretty high powered economists but its not my central line of knowledge. About the only thing they really can agree on is that economics theory is miserable for predictions. The best it seems to be able to do is to explain why things happened in the past.

As I listen to Bloomberg and the other news channels, we have thousands of professionals presenting the complete range of views. The European and US economies are measured in infinite detail. Housing starts to pig populations, we westerners are fools for numbers. Even with that immense data base and detail, no one can really agree on the direction or timing of the economy. Too many unseen factors. Who could have seen the rise of the internet in the 70s and the revolution in business it caused.

The best economist I ever attended absolutely refused to make economic predictions. He simply stated that anyone who uses the science to fortune tell is a complete charlatan. Instead, he believed in creating environments that stimulated innovation, was able to respond quickly to changes and challenges, and rewarded the risk taker. I kind of liked that argument.

I think thats a great post bendix, thanks.