Thailand economy: Fiscal position to suffer due to government policies like digital wallet scheme

[webfact]

 

Thailand’s fiscal position is predicted to face a downturn in the medium term, according to analysts, as the government advances populist policies such as the digital wallet scheme. BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions, forecasts that the nation’s budget deficit will escalate from 2.9% in the current fiscal year to 3.6% in the following fiscal year.

 

This is due to the government’s announcement of various policies aimed at stimulating GDP growth, coupled with a fiscal budget of 3.48 trillion baht for next year, said BMI, the London-based research firm.

 

“The fiscal position of Thailand is anticipated to be strained in the medium term, as the Pheu Thai government is likely to execute expansionary populist spending to achieve its growth target of 5.0%.”

Several measures that could potentially harm Thailand’s fiscal position have already been unveiled by policymakers. The most significant of these is the 10,000 baht digital handout, which, according to initial estimates, would entail a cost of about 560 billion baht, or 2.8% of GDP.

 

by Alex Morgan

Photo courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-11-06

 

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[Shop mak]

Fiscal position to suffer due to government policies like digital wallet scheme

PLUS the proposed Tax for foreign expats who stay in Thailand more than 180 days

[TheFishman1]

What a joke this government is they’re probably thinking they’ll get the money for all this from taxing to retired foreigners that live here. What a great idea TIT

[hotchilli]

The Junta must've really emptied the pot and gold reserves?

[Mike Lister]

4 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

The Junta must've really emptied the pot and gold reserves?

How do you figure, there's USD 212 million in BOT's foreign currency reserves currently and that includes gold?  If the USD weakens and the exchange rate improves, that amount will increase substantially.

 

 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Mike Lister said:

If the USD weakens and the exchange rate improves, that amount will increase substantially.

If the USD weakens, surely their USD holdings will lose value relative to something or other?

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

If the USD weakens, surely their USD holdings will lose value relative to something or other?

The foreign currency reserves are not all held in USD, they comprise lots of currencies, over 24 plus gold and SDR's, USD is less than 40%. THB is strengthening at present and USD is weakening, the US DI is down to 105%.

 

See the effect of USD strengthening and weakening on the reserves, below.

 

https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

Edited November 5, 2023 by Mike Lister

[morrobay]

54 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

How do you figure, there's USD 212 million in BOT's foreign currency reserves currently and that includes gold?  If the USD weakens and the exchange rate improves, that amount will increase substantially.

 

 

You are way off . Thailands so called foreign currency reserves are $ 212 Billion . The 560 billion baht give away equals $16 billion dollars. So seems hot chillies question is valid

 

[morrobay]

[Mike Lister]

29 minutes ago, morrobay said:

You are way off . Thailands so called foreign currency reserves are $ 212 Billion . The 560 billion baht give away equals $16 billion dollars. So seems hot chillies question is valid

 

 

I'm sorry, that's a typo on my part, of course the reserves are in billions not millions.

 

If you look at the BOT link I supplied in my post to that poster you'll see the effect of exchange rate movements, on the foreign currency reserves. Because USD has strengthened that means there is more baht required per dollar hence the total of USD when calculated in USD is lower than when the exchange rate is higher/stronger, as it was in April.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Mike Lister

[morrobay]

5 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

I'm sorry, that's a typo on my part, of course the reserves are in billions not millions.

 

If you look at the BOT link I supplied in my post to that poster you'll see the effect of exchange rate movements, on the foreign currency reserves. Because USD has strengthened that means there is more baht required per dollar hence the total of USD when calculated in USD is lower than when the exchange rate is higher/stronger, as it was in April.

 

 

7 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The Junta must've really emptied the pot and gold reserves?

Exchange rates varying is not the subject of the post by @hotchilli or  the context of my reply where I referenced his post. 

[Mike Lister]

38 minutes ago, morrobay said:

 

 

Exchange rates varying is not the subject of the post by @hotchilli or  the context of my reply where I referenced his post. 

I understand that, he was suggesting that the coffers had been pilfered, presumably that's because the foreign currency reserves are lower than they were previously?

 

Foreign currency reserves are held in a variety of currencies, including THB, but are accounted for in USD. When the exchange rate changes, so the value of the foreign currency reserves rises or falls, giving the appearance that the reserves have reduced when really they haven't..

 

[morrobay]

You see @Mike Lister what @hotchilli and myself are trying to convey: If  the Bank of Thailand has $212 Billion then the $16 Billion giveaway should not be a problem. 

Edit, pilfering and exchange rate fluctuating are two different things- Adios

Edited November 6, 2023 by morrobay

[Mike Lister]

Just now, morrobay said:

You see @Mike Lister what @hotchilli and myself are trying to convey: If  the Bank of Thailand has $212 Billion then the $16 Billion giveaway should not be a problem. 

 

But the government doesn't own the foreign currency reserves, BOT does. And the purpose of those reserves is to maintain the Baht and to guarantee trade, not to  provide loans to government on request. Government cannot simply say, gimme the money, government has an annual budget, that's their money to spend, not the reserves, they cannot be touched by government..

[Eric Loh]

Considering Japan budget deficit at around 4.5% and peer ASean country like Malaysia at 4.3% for 2024, Thailand's 2024 budget deficit of 3.6% is not alarming considering the need for fresh policies to stimulate a very sluggish economy weighed down by the dropping for exports and dwindling investor confidence. Q4 GDP likely to be lower than forecast. Thailand need to be pro-active with bold economic policies. Sitting still like the previous government will be more disastrous to the economy. I do agree that the 10k wallet scheme should be reviewed to a smaller budget and implement in stages over the full year. Still a lots of external geo-political risks to navigate next year.