Why are fewer Chinese tourists visiting Thailand?

[jacko45k]

46 minutes ago, DonniePeverley said:

The question is at what point does it become unsustainable? 

Whatever, it will  be a point well passed.

[DonniePeverley]

50 minutes ago, DonniePeverley said:

They're back. 

 

Bangkok and Pattaya, i've literally never seen this volume of Chinese tourists even before the pandemic. Absolutely insane numbers this week. 

 

We had a good few years, but it's over. They are back. 

 

The question is at what point does it become unsustainable? 

 

They are back. No one can tell me otherwise. 

[El Matador]

I think we don't have a clear economic picture of China at the moment.

Statistics about youth unemployment are now forbidden. It showed it exploded before it got forbidden.

All those factories moving to India or Vietnam must have an important impact. The possibility of a potential war in Taiwan is something businesses have to get in mind before investing.

I am very doubtful China still has a 5% economic growth rate. They must be near the recession line IMO.

[Selatan]

46 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I think we don't have a clear economic picture of China at the moment.

Statistics about youth unemployment are now forbidden. It showed it exploded before it got forbidden.

All those factories moving to India or Vietnam must have an important impact. The possibility of a potential war in Taiwan is something businesses have to get in mind before investing.

I am very doubtful China still has a 5% economic growth rate. They must be near the recession line IMO.

Youth unemployment figures can be misleading, especially if the overall unemployment rate in China is 5%. College enrolment in China surged from 35% in 2017 to 65% in 2023. Should we count those who are studying as unemployed? At what cut-off age that we should count those youths to be unemployed? 23? What if they continue to do their masters degrees or PhDs? If there is a difficulty in getting an accurate picture, might as well get rid of it, instead of presenting a misleading picture.

 

Many factories that have moved to Vietnam from China are owned by Chinese businesses. And many of them have moved long before the start of the trade war by Trump because labour costs in China were no longer low. But these factories still have to import lots of raw materials and parts from factories in China, which are now more and more automated.

 

The West has always been doubtful of China numbers. That's why they get a rude shock when they visit China cities. Western "China experts" have been predicting the collapse of China for decades. I think they may get a better hit if they start predicting when the West would collapse.

[Selatan]

Malaysia is seeing a surge in China tourists recently, not sure if it was due to the new visa-free policy or if the tourists were trying to escape winter.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 12/14/2023 at 1:14 PM, Selatan said:

The West has always been doubtful of China numbers. That's why they get a rude shock when they visit China cities. Western "China experts" have been predicting the collapse of China for decades. I think they may get a better hit if they start predicting when the West would collapse.

 

I lived in China 2015 to 2017. Even back then restaurants were quite empty, and big supermarkets often deserted, despite big discounts offered on imported goods. People, even back then, seemed to have a low buying power, and were careful with their money. (Theft was rampant, however.) I didn't see much of a 'middle class', or wealthy people. A large part of the rural population has only a very low income. I think that most economic growth in China is due to property speculation by local governments, and large infrastructure investments by the central government. With more and more provincial governments, as well as people, highly indebted, and the central government preserving cash for an upcoming war, no doubt that the house of cards (of speculation) will soon fall apart. Already China's economic growth has slowed considerably (to 2.99% in 2022, and barely 5% in 2023), which, for such an underdeveloped, but rich (central government only) country is abysmal.

 

Where does that leave Thailand? I think, for the foreseeable future, at least, Chinese arrivals have peaked. Most people keen to travel after the pandemic have done so. There is a chance of a slight increase in Chinese arrival numbers this year, but the historical 2019 numbers are just that, history.

Edited January 1 by StayinThailand2much