Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

You exaggerate. Proficient US military pilots can do air frame crossovers fairly quickly. Remember, these are proficient Ukrainian pilots already. 

 

Given a proficient Ukrainian pilot in new air frame against a proficient Russian pilot in an old air frame, each pushing a button to fire a missile after which modern US verses old Russian missile tech takes control, I will choose the Ukrainian in a new air frame.

I hope you do not believe that Russian military planners have not thought of that.

IMO any war plan only works till the first shot is fired, and after that it's largely down to luck.

 

Once the western money tree dies it's not going to be easy to buy new missiles, no matter how proficient the Ukrainian pilots may or may not be, and IMO the western money tree is about ready to fall over any time soon.

All those nurses and ambulance drivers in the UK may have something to say about where they want public money spent, and the GOP seem likely to chop the tree down.

[Morch]

23 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I hope you do not believe that Russian military planners have not thought of that.

IMO any war plan only works till the first shot is fired, and after that it's largely down to luck.

 

Once the western money tree dies it's not going to be easy to buy new missiles, no matter how proficient the Ukrainian pilots may or may not be, and IMO the western money tree is about ready to fall over any time soon.

All those nurses and ambulance drivers in the UK may have something to say about where they want public money spent, and the GOP seem likely to chop the tree down.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

You've made a silly argument.

It was countered.

You cannot address it.

So you're back to deflections.

Same old.

[beautifulthailand99]

Well, Xi has kicked off the New Year by saying Taiwan belongs to China, and Israel is flinging all it's inventory at Gaza. No doubt getting ready for new fronts opening with Hezbollah, Iran and Yemen and Western stockpiles of kit are all out and the shadow of Putin stooge, President Trump looms over the year like the spectre at the feast.

 

Thankfully the Pentagon Think Tank the Rand Corporation snuck out a think piece earlier in the year mapping out potential ends to the war. To the last Ukrainian maximalists will not like their conclusions nor will Zelenkiy. Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. As Lindsey Graham likes to say it's the best value war the US has ever fought and now withholds aid unless border deals have been done. Like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan before it 2024 will probably be the year of the latest great betrayal.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

 

Our analysis suggests that this debate is too narrowly focused on one dimension of the war's trajectory. Territorial control, although immensely important to Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the war's future for the United States. We conclude that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control. Furthermore, the U.S. ability to micromanage where the line is ultimately drawn is highly constrained since the U.S. military is not directly involved in the fighting. Enabling Ukraine's territorial control is also far from the only instrument available to the United States to affect the trajectory of the war. We have highlighted several other tools—potentially more potent ones—that Washington can use to steer the war toward a trajectory that better promotes U.S. interests. Whereas the United States cannot determine the territorial outcome of the war directly, it will have direct control over these policies.

 

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Edited January 2 by beautifulthailand99

[beautifulthailand99]

As PM Meloni let slip in that call with Russian pranksters as far as Europe is concerned it's a done deal they want out add to that US direction of travel and a 'dirty' peace deal is on the cards. Ukrainian politicians such as Davyd Arakhamiia and Arestovich are already jockeying for positions and questioning Zelenkiy's leadership as does General Valerii Zaluzhny who is getting the blame for the failure of the counter-offensive. I suspect an election would be the best way forward to help clear the air for their future.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/head-ukraines-leading-party-claims-205150773.html

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-ukraine-fatigue-prank-call-russia-war/

 

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-talks/

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/12/28/in-ukraine-general-zaluzhnyi-holds-president-zelensky-to-his-responsibilities_6382631_4.html

 

European leaders are “tired” of the war in Ukraine, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told two Russian pranksters in a call — thinking she was speaking with officials with the African Union.

Meloni informed the pair that “fatigue” with the war was coming to a head.

“I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides,” she said. “We [are] near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”

[Bkk Brian]

29 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Well, Xi has kicked off the New Year by saying Taiwan belongs to China, and Israel is flinging all it's inventory at Gaza. No doubt getting ready for new fronts opening with Hezbollah, Iran and Yemen and Western stockpiles of kit are all out and the shadow of Putin stooge, President Trump looms over the year like the spectre at the feast.

 

Thankfully the Pentagon Think Tank the Rand Corporation snuck out a think piece earlier in the year mapping out potential ends to the war. To the last Ukrainian maximalists will not like their conclusions nor will Zelenkiy. Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. As Lindsey Graham likes to say it's the best value war the US has ever fought and now withholds aid unless border deals have been done. Like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan before it 2024 will probably be the year of the latest great betrayal.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

 

Our analysis suggests that this debate is too narrowly focused on one dimension of the war's trajectory. Territorial control, although immensely important to Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the war's future for the United States. We conclude that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control. Furthermore, the U.S. ability to micromanage where the line is ultimately drawn is highly constrained since the U.S. military is not directly involved in the fighting. Enabling Ukraine's territorial control is also far from the only instrument available to the United States to affect the trajectory of the war. We have highlighted several other tools—potentially more potent ones—that Washington can use to steer the war toward a trajectory that better promotes U.S. interests. Whereas the United States cannot determine the territorial outcome of the war directly, it will have direct control over these policies.

 

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. 

 

 

You need to do some more research, 4 weeks into the illegal invasion Zelensky offered a peace deal, it was turned down by Putin

 

Zelensky: We won't join NATO if that brings peace

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday he is prepared to pledge that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO, in a bid to broker a peace deal with Russia

https://nypost.com/2022/03/22/zelensky-we-wont-join-nato-if-that-brings-peace/

Edited January 2 by Bkk Brian

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. 

 

 

You need to do some more research, 4 weeks into the illegal invasion Zelensky offered a peace deal, it was turned down by Putin

 

Zelensky: We won't join NATO if that brings peace

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday he is prepared to pledge that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO, in a bid to broker a peace deal with Russia

https://nypost.com/2022/03/22/zelensky-we-wont-join-nato-if-that-brings-peace/

We won't know for certain what could have happened at that juncture and the other link said that UK/USA demands were the fall of the Putin regime. We were fed a lot of disinfo at the start of the war, Putin has only months to live, has cancer, will be removed in a coup , sanctions will collapse the economy- none of which have transpired. Indeed he looks stronger than ever which is what this missile strike was intended to brutally project. Since the collective West is unwilling or unable to further this senseless bloody war it's time to explore avenues for a dirty peace.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

We won't know for certain what could have happened at that juncture and the other link said that UK/USA demands were the fall of the Putin regime. We were fed a lot of disinfo at the start of the war, Putin has only months to live, has cancer, will be removed in a coup , sanctions will collapse the economy- none of which have transpired. Indeed he looks stronger than ever which is what this missile strike was intended to brutally project. Since the collective West is unwilling or unable to further this senseless bloody war it's time to explore avenues for a dirty peace.

We don't know for certain that Boris scuppered a peace deal either. It works both ways if that's the way your going to play it.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You are wrong The Rising is the YouTube channel of the Hill with 1.8 million subscribers and hence an authoritative source.  Hope that helps.

 

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/

Yes I edited however

 

 it does not distract from the "On what planet do you thing I'm going to sit through over 2 hours of a foreign language vid" and the rules remain the same, this is an English language forum

Edited January 2 by Bkk Brian

[CharlieH]

Reported video and subsequent exchange all removed.

 

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

2 minute....lol, so not only foreign by highly edited and snipped out of context, enough with this misinformation.

Unfortunately, most social media forums have become echo chambers of those with sufficient time and energy to reflect on their own confirmation biases in selecting and curating stories. I noticed that you didn't comment on any other sources I provided such as the RAND report or the Meloni comment widely reported by Western mainstream media. My premise being that sadly Ukraine is losing the war and will most certainly do if and when the US and Europe withdraw substantial indefinite support - which many,many commentators are now saying.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/28/ukraine-is-losing-but-the-uk-must-stand-by-it/

Edited January 2 by beautifulthailand99

[rabas]

On 12/31/2023 at 2:02 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Worth noting that each missile costs over $200,000, and over half the number being sent would have been used in just the one attack in the OP.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/british-fighter-jets-fire-dozens-of-asraam-missiles-that-india/

Each ASHRAM missile is said to cost around $225,500.

Stealth nonsense.

 

You argue Ukraine's allies' $ trillion+ defense spending can't afford $45 million of highly accurate defense missiles, but you see no problem with Russia blowing $1.2 billion of its meager $77B defense budget on a one night orgy killing civilians for Putin's presser?  In the same week that Ukraine does ~$billion damage to Russia's military? Your not trying.

 

And no, Ukraine doesn't use just ASRAAM's, they have many defense systems including patriots that shoot down Putin's $10M unstoppable  Kinzhals, the world's only 'hyperbolic' missile.

 

Putin's Russia should loose and will loose.

[beautifulthailand99]

23 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I edited however

 

 it does not distract from the "On what planet do you thing I'm going to sit through over 2 hours of a foreign language vid" and the rules remain the same, this is an English language forum

Here you go - hopefully, this doesn't fall foul of any rules.

 

According to Bennett, during his mediation efforts Zelenskiy agreed to give up the idea that Ukraine would join Nato, and Putin dropped a vow to seek Ukraine’s disarmament in order to end the war. “Everything I did was coordinated with the US, Germany and France,” he said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/05/putin-promised-me-he-would-not-kill-zelenskiy-says-former-israeli-pm-naftali-bennett

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Unfortunately, most social media forums have become echo chambers of those with sufficient time and energy to reflect on their own confirmation biases in selecting and curating stories. I noticed that you didn't comment on any other sources I provided such as the RAND report or the Meloni comment widely reported by Western mainstream media. My premise being that sadly Ukraine is losing the war and will most certainly do if and when the US and Europe withdraw substantial indefinite support - which many,many commentators are now saying.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/28/ukraine-is-losing-but-the-uk-must-stand-by-it/

Your post was deleted, no further comment other than those made.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

Here you go - hopefully, this doesn't fall foul of any rules.

 

According to Bennett, during his mediation efforts Zelenskiy agreed to give up the idea that Ukraine would join Nato, and Putin dropped a vow to seek Ukraine’s disarmament in order to end the war. “Everything I did was coordinated with the US, Germany and France,” he said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/05/putin-promised-me-he-would-not-kill-zelenskiy-says-former-israeli-pm-naftali-bennett

and........... "according to Bennett"

 

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

We don't know for certain that Boris scuppered a peace deal either. It works both ways if that's the way your going to play it.

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

and........... "according to Bennett"

 

 

By that logic, we may as well hang up our boots and stick to figuring out where the best pizza is to be had. I have no reason to doubt his first-hand experiences and recollections.

 

My point is that Zelenskiy is no fool and a wise man who has been monstrously played ultimately by his Western sponsors. He does live next door to a much bigger bully with a shared history and a past record of destroying cities with whom it would have been better to have some sort of compromise. Instead, the worst possible scenario has unfolded - Russia has pivoted to a devilish axis and destroyed much of Ukraine which increasingly looks as if it will be abandoned by those who cheered them into the fight.

 

This is not a rerun of WW2 or we would be all in and what it has exposed is Russia's vulnerability they would never and could never take on a NATO adversary and they are not foolish enough to do so.

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

By that logic, we may as well hang up our boots and stick to figuring out where the best pizza is to be had. I have no reason to doubt his first-hand experiences and recollections.

 

My point is that Zelenskiy is no fool and a wise man who has been monstrously played ultimately by his Western sponsors. He does live next door to a much bigger bully with a shared history and a past record of destroying cities with whom it would have been better to have some sort of compromise. Instead, the worst possible scenario has unfolded - Russia has pivoted to a devilish axis and destroyed much of Ukraine which increasingly looks as if it will be abandoned by those who cheered them into the fight.

 

This is not a rerun of WW2 or we would be all in and what it has exposed is Russia's vulnerability they would never and could never take on a NATO adversary and they are not foolish enough to do so.

Yep, that's what happens when you attempt to discredit my article links with deflection, enjoy your pizza.

 

 

 

[novacova]

“Famed economist Jeffrey Sachs just revealed to the entire world exactly how Biden FAILED in Ukraine…”

https://revolver.news/2023/12/famed-economist-jeffrey-sachs-just-revealed-to-the-entire-world-exactly-how-biden-failed-in-ukraine/

[retarius]

From my perspective as a peace lover, this is excellent news and probably a reaction to the terrorist attack on the Christmas Markey on Belgorod. I would like to see the war over quickly to save lives of both Ukrainian and Russia soldiers and civilians, and the only way to do that is for Russia to take the gloves off and destroy large parts of Ukraine, including Lviv and Kiev. 

What is also interesting is the very low number of casualties in Ukraine vs the high number of missiles, drone and bombs sent, particularly compared the shameful planned destruction of innocent life in Israel. 

[retarius]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. 

 

 

You need to do some more research, 4 weeks into the illegal invasion Zelensky offered a peace deal, it was turned down by Putin

 

Zelensky: We won't join NATO if that brings peace

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday he is prepared to pledge that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO, in a bid to broker a peace deal with Russia

https://nypost.com/2022/03/22/zelensky-we-wont-join-nato-if-that-brings-peace/

What a silly comment.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, retarius said:

What a silly comment.

You need to add some substance rather than troll

[retarius]

23 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You need to add some substance rather than troll

OK I dint want to be rude, but you are making stuff up. The deal was hammered out between the parties and agreement reached. Boris flew over and persuaded Zelensky to pull out. That is the truth. 

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, retarius said:

OK I dint want to be rude, but you are making stuff up. The deal was hammered out between the parties and agreement reached. Boris flew over and persuaded Zelensky to pull out. That is the truth. 

 

 

I don't make stuff up

 

PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/

Edited January 2 by Bkk Brian

[beautifulthailand99]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

I don't make stuff up

 

PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/

Ahem. Natfali Bennett the actual Israeli PM on camera saying it - nah "according to him" to be replaced with  "but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."

 

As John McEnroe was won't to say-  "you cannot be serious !"

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Ahem. Natfali Bennett the actual Israeli PM on camera saying it - nah "according to him" to be replaced with  "but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."

 

As John McEnroe was won't to say-  "you cannot be serious !"

Yea of course he did, hows that pizza

[rabas]

58 minutes ago, retarius said:

From my perspective as a peace lover, this is excellent news and probably a reaction to the terrorist attack on the Christmas Markey on Belgorod. I would like to see the war over quickly to save lives of both Ukrainian and Russia soldiers and civilians, and the only way to do that is for Russia to take the gloves off and destroy large parts of Ukraine, including Lviv and Kiev. 

What is also interesting is the very low number of casualties in Ukraine vs the high number of missiles, drone and bombs sent, particularly compared the shameful planned destruction of innocent life in Israel. 

You can't make this stuff up. 

 

Peace lover praises Putin's mass killing of civilians and destruction of homes and hospitals. Says he want's much more. 

 

"For peace!" he explains, skipping the fact Putin's Russia started and continues the war.

 

 For peace, just make Putin go home. For lasting peace defenestrate him. 

[beautifulthailand99]

51 minutes ago, rabas said:

You can't make this stuff up. 

 

Peace lover praises Putin's mass killing of civilians and destruction of homes and hospitals. Says he want's much more. 

 

"For peace!" he explains, skipping the fact Putin's Russia started and continues the war.

 

 For peace, just make Putin go home. For lasting peace defenestrate him. 

It is often said from a global security view Putin is the least bad option Nikolai Patrushev is often talked about as the most likely successor and is widely thought to be worse. It is a gangster state with nuclear weapons, a vicious security apparatus and a relatively compliant population inured to death and misery on the world's largest country with vast mineral wealth. It has never had a democratic, civilised society that we in the West would recognise. Ukaraine's misfortune was to be located next door. An unchangeable fact of geography.

 

https://time.com/6284209/after-vladimir-putins-rule-in-russia/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

[retarius]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

You can't make this stuff up. 

 

Peace lover praises Putin's mass killing of civilians and destruction of homes and hospitals. Says he want's much more. 

 

"For peace!" he explains, skipping the fact Putin's Russia started and continues the war.

 

 For peace, just make Putin go home. For lasting peace defenestrate him. 

Russia has not caused any mass civilian casualties. He has been exceptionally careful to destroy only military architecture in the vast majority of cases. Look up the numbers of civilians killed, it is the least of any modern war and probably a factor of 50 lower than the Israeli murders which imho are totally intentional and therefore genocidal. Dropping a 2000lb US bomb in the middle of a densely packed refugee camp, that's mass killing or a campaign to bomb all hospitals, a war crime. Bombing a Christmas Market in Belgorod, that's mass indiscriminate killing, Ukraine style. 

Putin stands about as much chance of being defenestrated as you do of growing an open mind. You cannot defenestrate a nuclear power. The war will end only when Ukraine is destroyed or it surrenders, this are the only options open to it now not has turned down peace. 

Did you have to look up your big word? Sorry I studied Latin and Greek at school and am pretty good at Latin (our Greek) derived words. 

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

It is often said from a global security view Putin is the least bad option Nikolai Patrushev is often talked about as the most likely successor and is widely thought to be worse. It is a gangster state with nuclear weapons, a vicious security apparatus and a relatively compliant population inured to death and misery on the world's largest country with vast mineral wealth. It has never had a democratic, civilised society that we in the West would recognise. Ukaraine's misfortune was to be located next door. An unchangeable fact of geography.

 

https://time.com/6284209/after-vladimir-putins-rule-in-russia/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

 

I know the content in your links though Western experts don't have a good record deciphering the complexities of Russian propaganda, disinformation, and lies. If you understand something about Russian culture, as it seems you do, you may know Russians have the same trouble. 

 

But knowing a bit about Russia makes your call for genocidal destruction of Ukraine all the worse. You kind of sound like RT.

[Wobblybob]

1 hour ago, retarius said:

Russia has not caused any mass civilian casualties. He has been exceptionally careful to destroy only military architecture in the vast majority of cases. Look up the numbers of civilians killed, it is the least of any modern war and probably a factor of 50 lower than the Israeli murders which imho are totally intentional and therefore genocidal. Dropping a 2000lb US bomb in the middle of a densely packed refugee camp, that's mass killing or a campaign to bomb all hospitals, a war crime. Bombing a Christmas Market in Belgorod, that's mass indiscriminate killing, Ukraine style. 

Putin stands about as much chance of being defenestrated as you do of growing an open mind. You cannot defenestrate a nuclear power. The war will end only when Ukraine is destroyed or it surrenders, this are the only options open to it now not has turned down peace. 

Did you have to look up your big word? Sorry I studied Latin and Greek at school and am pretty good at Latin (our Greek) derived words. 

 

You may want to look at the Russian word 'vranyo' it means and I'm sure you know what it means judging by your wording of your maligned post, it means.....you know your lying and everybody else knows your lying, but the Russians go ahead and lie anyway, it's part of their culture!

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Well, ain't that the truth.

 

Don't those guys like to use a dozen uppity words where a few simpler ones could suffice?