JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Here’s another prediction for you. I made it middle 2023. You will start to see ICE dealerships close or consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impulse Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Has anyone in Thai officialdom addressed how they'll handle the drop in road fuel taxes as more drivers go electric? Someone's gotta pay for road maintenance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, impulse said: Has anyone in Thai officialdom addressed how they'll handle the drop in road fuel taxes as more drivers go electric? Someone's gotta pay for road maintenance. A thorny problem. Some think EU and UK are laying the groundwork for a pay per mile tax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impulse Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: A thorny problem. Some think EU and UK are laying the groundwork for a pay per mile tax The conspiracy wingnuts among us believe that could open the door to a mileage quota, with the intent being to reduce the miles we're allowed to travel via private vehicle. WEF stuff. Of course, that goes beyond the EV/ ICE debate. I'm just afraid they're deliberately not addressing the vehicle use taxes for road maintenance until they get to some EV takeup percentage, then they'll spring something that completely changes the equation. I freely admit that I enjoyed the low taxes on diesel in Thailand, though I was not the intended beneficiary. I was a glommer-onner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eloquent pilgrim Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said: I have been posting for some months now that legacy car makers are very scared. EV sales are accelerating enormously and they aren’t a separate market. you either drive an ICE car or you drive an EV, but you do not need both. Companies like Toyota are spreading FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) by saying firstly, they won’t take off and now their market share will never exceed 30%. Studies and off the wall websites are being funded to say EV are not the future, they catch fire (false), hydrogen is the future, water engines are the future, every imaginable thing to downplay EV’s and slow or prevent adoption. Some legacy auto makers are openly discounting their vehicles, others, like Ford are doing it more subtly with adverts saying special prices, inquire at your dealership. in summary, the future is EV, most legacy auto makers cannot make them at even close to the price the Chinese sell them at and they face going the way of the dinosaur. Thanks, interesting analysis. I won’t be buying an EV myself; no startling or controversial reasons, or something I want to argue about. Just my own personal choice because of my love for petrol engined cars. Still, if your future projections have any value, I might be able to hold on and up my game to a CX5 2.5 Turbo ….. Happy days, thanks again for your reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Startmeup Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) Surge from a very low base. https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/4q2023 Most people don’t realize that Norwegian oil demand fell by a tiny 35,000 b/d since 2010. How can that be if eight out of ten cars sold in Norway are fully electric? Unfortunately, most investors do not appreciate the details of the Norwegian odyssey with electric vehicles. Instead of a poster child, Norway should serve as a warning of the unintended consequences of widespread EV adoption. Edited March 10 by Startmeup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 56 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: Here’s another prediction for you. I made it middle 2023. You will start to see ICE dealerships close or consolidate. That might happen In Bangkok where there is an oversupply of dealerships Thailand Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 20,463,502 Unit in Jan 2024. excluding motorcyles Once you exclude commercial and agricultural vehicles that leaves approx 12.5 million vehicles on the road remove all the EV registered between January 2020 and 31st January 2024 approx 102,090 or in % terms 0.8% so approx 12.4 million ice vehicles registered on the road January 2024 Once you step outside Bangkok a different picture emerges 10 states with the highest number of people using electric vehicle cars Of course, the province with the highest number of registrations is Bangkok, with 52,751 vehicles, and the province that follows in second place is Chiang Mai, with 3,083 vehicles, and in third place is Chonburi, with 2,392 vehicles. https://www.newsdirectory3.com/analysis-of-electric-vehicle-registrations-in-thailand-and-expansion-of-charging-stations/ Phuket numbers seem low 1,039 cars and Mae Hong Son Province, 1 vehicle That single EV in the Mae Hong Son Province must be feeling lonely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 41 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said: Thanks, interesting analysis. I won’t be buying an EV myself; no startling or controversial reasons, or something I want to argue about. Just my own personal choice because of my love for petrol engined cars. Still, if your future projections have any value, I might be able to hold on and up my game to a CX5 2.5 Turbo ….. Happy days, thanks again for your reply. I think you have a good chance of getting a higher spec ICE car cheaper. I also think ICE car makers who have historically made a much higher profit on high spec cars will reduce the gap so their top model in each range is more affordable, perhaps only selling the top model. 8 minutes ago, vinny41 said: That might happen In Bangkok where there is an oversupply of dealerships Thailand Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 20,463,502 Unit in Jan 2024. excluding motorcyles Once you exclude commercial and agricultural vehicles that leaves approx 12.5 million vehicles on the road remove all the EV registered between January 2020 and 31st January 2024 approx 102,090 or in % terms 0.8% so approx 12.4 million ice vehicles registered on the road January 2024 Once you step outside Bangkok a different picture emerges 10 states with the highest number of people using electric vehicle cars Of course, the province with the highest number of registrations is Bangkok, with 52,751 vehicles, and the province that follows in second place is Chiang Mai, with 3,083 vehicles, and in third place is Chonburi, with 2,392 vehicles. https://www.newsdirectory3.com/analysis-of-electric-vehicle-registrations-in-thailand-and-expansion-of-charging-stations/ Phuket numbers seem low 1,039 cars and Mae Hong Son Province, 1 vehicle That single EV in the Mae Hong Son Province must be feeling lonely Chiang Mai has lots of Toyota dealerships, Chiang Rai and other cities usually have 2 or 3, I can see those consolidating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: I think you have a good chance of getting a higher spec ICE car cheaper. I also think ICE car makers who have historically made a much higher profit on high spec cars will reduce the gap so their top model in each range is more affordable, perhaps only selling the top model. Chiang Mai has lots of Toyota dealerships, Chiang Rai and other cities usually have 2 or 3, I can see those consolidating. I don't think any of the Toyota Dealerships will be worried with only EV 3,083 vehicles being sold in Chiang Mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post josephbloggs Posted March 10 Popular Post Share Posted March 10 (edited) 2 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said: Thanks, interesting analysis. I won’t be buying an EV myself; no startling or controversial reasons, or something I want to argue about. Just my own personal choice because of my love for petrol engined cars. Still, if your future projections have any value, I might be able to hold on and up my game to a CX5 2.5 Turbo ….. Happy days, thanks again for your reply. That's a fair enough opinion, I wish more people could be honest like you and just say "nothing against EVs but I just love petrol engines". rather than making stuff up like they'll explode, you spend your life queueing at charging stations, they'll be worthless in a few years etc etc. Would I would say is try one. I too love petrol engines, I love them a lot, always have done. But I tried an EV and was bowled over by it - so much so that I can say I would never buy another ICE. Getting back in the ICE after being in the EV felt like going back in time. I still drive an ICE by the way, but when it comes time to buy a new car I will definitely be going for an EV. You seem like an open minded chap so I would say just try one for your own curiosity if nothing else (provided your lifestyle would support one: home charging etc). Edited March 10 by josephbloggs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, vinny41 said: I don't think any of the Toyota Dealerships will be worried with only EV 3,083 vehicles being sold in Chiang Mai I think all the ICE vehicle dealerships are worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josephbloggs Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 6 hours ago, Cult of the Sun said: I took my radiation meter to a woman's tesla in a parking lot here in the US. Let's just say EV drivers won't be having a lot of children.. ;and that is putting it mildly. Of course you did. Quote I do have 3 electric scooters and the solar system to keep them on the road for pretty much free; but the difference in radiation between an electric car and riding on an electric scooter (which I stand on 95% of the time) is huge. https://www.wavewallcases.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-a-deep-dive-into-the-emf-radiation-concerns/ (And wavewallcases.com is a website that sells "EMF protection" products, but even they reference studies and tests that clearly show there is no risk and the difference in EMF radiation between an EV and an ICE is negligible. All linked to in the above article) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: I think all the ICE vehicle dealerships are worried. You can say the same about EV dealerships then with a dramatic reduction of sales in February 2024 of 72.12% compared to January 2024 If EV yearly sales remain at 76,000 per year it will take 164 years before every cars in Thailand is an EV If a dealership has a good receptionist they take note of how people come through the door how many leave without asking for further information ( Window Shopping ) How many ask for more information which sales person they were assigned to. and sales manager will have list of monthly sales, who the salesperson was and have a breakdown of number of people engaging with a sales person and how many sales were completed So if a dealership sees a drop in people coming through the door and completed sales dropping they will look at their immediate competitors to see if they are doing anything different and take appropriate action I have only ever come across 1 dealership in the middle east where they were offering a 2 for 1 deal and that was buy a used Rolls Royce and they would through in a old fiat 500c with canvas roof and no a/c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 minute ago, vinny41 said: You can say the same about EV dealerships then with a dramatic reduction of sales in February 2024 of 72.12% compared to January 2024 If EV yearly sales remain at 76,000 per year it will take 164 years before every cars in Thailand is an EV If a dealership has a good receptionist they take note of how people come through the door how many leave without asking for further information ( Window Shopping ) How many ask for more information which sales person they were assigned to. and sales manager will have list of monthly sales, who the salesperson was and have a breakdown of number of people engaging with a sales person and how many sales were completed So if a dealership sees a drop in people coming through the door and completed sales dropping they will look at their immediate competitors to see if they are doing anything different and take appropriate action I have only ever come across 1 dealership in the middle east where they were offering a 2 for 1 deal and that was buy a used Rolls Royce and they would through in a old fiat 500c with canvas roof and no a/c One swallow does not a summer make. I think you’ll find that February was a blip because most of the manufacturers tried to get their sales done by the end of the year and EV buyers in particular were concerned about the drop in rebate. My friend was appointed sales director at Rolls Royce motor cars in Crewe 25-30 years ago, he discounted the Mulsanne/Brooklands LPT, they didn’t like that, he only lasted a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 21 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: One swallow does not a summer make. I think you’ll find that February was a blip because most of the manufacturers tried to get their sales done by the end of the year and EV buyers in particular were concerned about the drop in rebate. My friend was appointed sales director at Rolls Royce motor cars in Crewe 25-30 years ago, he discounted the Mulsanne/Brooklands LPT, they didn’t like that, he only lasted a year. I expect the March figures will be slightly better than February figures but still down on January figures with all the yoyo pricing and discounting that started In January this year some buyers in the facebook groups are complaining that for certain models the overall price for cars under EV subsidy are more favorable under EV 3.5 compared to EV 3.0 While yoyo pricing and discounting does attract new interest they seen how the price has dropped compared to a few months ago and their concern is buy now or wait and see for further price reductions And yoyo pricing and discounting puts off finance companies from lending as it makes them nervous over lending Similar scenario played out In China end of 2022 when buyers were urged to get their orders in before the end of the Chinese subsidy ended 31st December 2022 then Tesla announced huge price cuts https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/protesting-tesla-china-buyers-vow-more-pressure-over-price-cuts-they-missed-2023-01-10/ I see Byd in China has reduced the price of the Seagull to 69,800 yuan or approx B350,000 I suspect it wouldn't be that price in Thailand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee65 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 4 hours ago, impulse said: Has anyone in Thai officialdom addressed how they'll handle the drop in road fuel taxes as more drivers go electric? Someone's gotta pay for road maintenance. “Flat-fee charges on EVs have become commonplace in recent years, with one other province and more than 40 U.S. states implementing or having announced this type of charge, including California,” Savannah Johannsen, press secretary for the Alberta Office of Treasury Board and Finance told Electric Autonomy via email. https://electricautonomy.ca/2024/03/07/alberta-evs-registration-tax/ Electric car owners in Alberta will be forced to pay an annual $200 electric vehicle tax starting as early as January 2025. In Alberta’s 2024 budget unveiled Thursday, the province says the new tax will be applied when electric car owners register their vehicle and will be in addition to the current registration fee. The province says electric vehicles tend to be heavier and cause more destruction on highways and roads, while owners don’t pay a provincial fuel tax. The tax will not apply to hybrid vehicles, the budget says. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-budget-electric-vehicle-tax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 25 minutes ago, vinny41 said: I expect the March figures will be slightly better than February figures but still down on January figures with all the yoyo pricing and discounting that started In January this year some buyers in the facebook groups are complaining that for certain models the overall price for cars under EV subsidy are more favorable under EV 3.5 compared to EV 3.0 While yoyo pricing and discounting does attract new interest they seen how the price has dropped compared to a few months ago and their concern is buy now or wait and see for further price reductions And yoyo pricing and discounting puts off finance companies from lending as it makes them nervous over lending Similar scenario played out In China end of 2022 when buyers were urged to get their orders in before the end of the Chinese subsidy ended 31st December 2022 then Tesla announced huge price cuts https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/protesting-tesla-china-buyers-vow-more-pressure-over-price-cuts-they-missed-2023-01-10/ I see Byd in China has reduced the price of the Seagull to 69,800 yuan or approx B350,000 I suspect it wouldn't be that price in Thailand I wouldn’t be surprised to see March figures down on January either, January was a special case because it included all the sales in December, and the end of a better EV subsidy. What is important, is how March figures compare to March last year, I expect them to be higher than March last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lee65 Posted March 10 Popular Post Share Posted March 10 5 hours ago, JBChiangRai said: Strange, I have never seen EV owners waiting around at Charging Stations, having a coffee? Sure. See 'em almost every time I visit my local PTT/7-11 - sitting on the concrete curb stops next to their pride and joy. And often with a scowling woman in tow. I guess gaily "drinking coffee" at the service station for 50-minute stretches grew old. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneMoreFarang Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 10 hours ago, jacko45k said: I wouldn't mind a Range Rover myself, but a bit above my price mark. I guess the good news is that (almost?) any other car ICE car has a better range than most BEVs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, Lee65 said: See 'em almost every time I visit my local PTT/7-11 - sitting on the concrete curb stops next to their pride and joy. And often with a scowling woman in tow. I guess gaily "drinking coffee" at the service station for 50-minute stretches grew old. I would love too that photo, since nice you visit regularly it won’t be too long will it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, Lee65 said: See 'em almost every time I visit my local PTT/7-11 - sitting on the concrete curb stops next to their pride and joy. And often with a scowling woman in tow. I guess gaily "drinking coffee" at the service station for 50-minute stretches grew old. on second thoughts, I think it would be quite common for husbands to say to their wives. I need to pop out for an hour and charge up the EV, when they really want to meet with their mates and have a coffee I need a suitable excuse to get out the house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said: I wouldn’t be surprised to see March figures down on January either, January was a special case because it included all the sales in December, and the end of a better EV subsidy. What is important, is how March figures compare to March last year, I expect them to be higher than March last year. EV 3.0 was a higher subsidy but EV 3.5 has resulted in lower total price on some models so not sure how EV 3.0 can be described as a better subsidy March figures wouldn't contain any of the cars sold at the Motorshow those figures wouldn't show up until May or June registrations figures are released 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eloquent pilgrim Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 hours ago, josephbloggs said: That's a fair enough opinion, I wish more people could be honest like you and just say "nothing against EVs but I just love petrol engines". rather than making stuff up like they'll explode, you spend your life queueing at charging stations, they'll be worthless in a few years etc etc. Would I would say is try one. I too love petrol engines, I love them a lot, always have done. But I tried an EV and was bowled over by it - so much so that I can say I would never buy another ICE. Getting back in the ICE after being in the EV felt like going back in time. I still drive an ICE by the way, but when it comes time to buy a new car I will definitely be going for an EV. You seem like an open minded chap so I would say just try one for your own curiosity if nothing else (provided your lifestyle would support one: home charging etc). Thanks very much for your reply, but as I think I made clear, I have no interest whatsoever in either trying or buying an EV. A test drive will let me know how one drives, which I’m sure is well enough. However, what it won’t let me know is what both the car and the battery will be like 5 or 6 years hence. It won’t let me know how easy or difficult an EV will be to sell several years hence, and it won’t be able to predict where I will be living in the future (meaning I would have to consider charging facilities when moving) A couple of friends in the UK are already worried about residual values of their EV’s as new sales slump after the initial incentives and grants that boosted early sales. We often make long (500k +) journeys to visit friends and family: we plan our journeys to stop at nice areas to let our 2 terriers stretch their legs and empty their bladders, I don’t want to start planning for recharging stops instead. So, completely unsuitable for my wife and I for myriad reasons. The Mazda Skyactive engines and their transmission systems, have a long and excellent history of reliability, whereas with EV’s, the history is being written. I don’t intend to be a guinea pig in the writing of that history …. gao ha krup, tem tank krup I heard the highway whine when I was a kid Dreaming of the long white line was all that I did. John Stewart “Wheels Of Thunder” … 1980 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 14 minutes ago, vinny41 said: EV 3.0 was a higher subsidy but EV 3.5 has resulted in lower total price on some models so not sure how EV 3.0 can be described as a better subsidy March figures wouldn't contain any of the cars sold at the Motorshow those figures wouldn't show up until May or June registrations figures are released I think we have already seen many of the motorshow bookings, the EV’s are typically ex-stock unless a future model. Toyota’s are typically ex-stock too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 10 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said: I think we have already seen many of the motorshow bookings, the EV’s are typically ex-stock unless a future model. Toyota’s are typically ex-stock too. I went to a couple of Toyota dealership in 2022 and the waiting list for Toyota corolla cross was 4-6 months Most ICE Brands prefer to build just in time and the vehicle is already sold to either a dealer or end customer has it rolls off the production line The days of fields stacked with cars waiting to be sold are long gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 43 minutes ago, vinny41 said: I went to a couple of Toyota dealership in 2022 and the waiting list for Toyota corolla cross was 4-6 months Most ICE Brands prefer to build just in time and the vehicle is already sold to either a dealer or end customer has it rolls off the production line The days of fields stacked with cars waiting to be sold are long gone My daughter’s aunt just got a Toyota pickup in under a week. I think the fast sellers are ex-stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny41 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said: My daughter’s aunt just got a Toyota pickup in under a week. I think the fast sellers are ex-stock. Buying this time of the year you have to be careful as it could be a 2024 model with a build date of November/December 2023 and it may have been sitting in a showroom somewhere without plates Normally if the buyer asks these builds offer the highest discount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FruitPudding Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) As a Tesla shareholder, I am gonna take great pleasure in watching all these Somsaks buying our product. Like shaving a <deleted>. Tw@t. Edited March 10 by FruitPudding Interesting, I had no idea that word would be deleted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBChiangRai Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 37 minutes ago, FruitPudding said: As a Tesla shareholder, I am gonna take great pleasure in watching all these Somsaks buying our product. Like shaving a <deleted>. Tw@t. You should be selling your Tesla shares now, at least one analyst is predicting they will make a loss this year, that will make the share price tank. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edwinchester Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 23 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said: isnt keeping them fully charged and "every night" going to degrade your battery faster? Current electric pick ups have VERY low range when loaded up, checkout Ford F150 lightning range when towing etc Just had the battery tested at 31,000 kms and it's still at 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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