Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[tgw]

Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 100 bp to 19.00% p.a.
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/

So much for the claims that "Russia's economy is doing fine"

[Bkk Brian]

Lambs to the slaughter here...............

 

 

[ballpoint]

2 hours ago, tgw said:

Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 100 bp to 19.00% p.a.
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/

So much for the claims that "Russia's economy is doing fine"

 

I thought it was quiet in the Ukraine news section today.  The Putin fanciers must all be busy changing their money to Rubles and depositing it in the Sberbank for the high interest returns.

[beautifulthailand99]

Good morning good to be back. Zelenskiy not holding back about the state of the the Ukrainian inventory.

 

Western aid not enough to equip 'even 4 out of 14' underarmed brigades needed on the front, Zelensky says - The Kyiv Indpendent

 

https://kyivindependent.com/western-aid-cant-equip-4-out-of-14-brigades-needed-on-the-front-zelensky-said/

 

"We moved (to use) what we had in storages, and whatever the reserve brigades had – (those brigades that) we need now (to fight)," he added.

Zelensky also defended the Ukrainian military command's decision to launch the Kursk incursion into Russia in August to divert Russian troops there, rather than keep Ukrainian forces in the eastern Pokrovsk direction, where Russian army was making relatively rapid territorial gains over the past weeks.

Zelensky said that it didn't matter how many brigades were defending the east, if "half of them is not equipped." Specifically, he said they were lacking armored vehicles and artillery shells, as Russian forces fired 12 times more rounds than Ukrainian troo

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Ukraine's spy chief says North Korean military aid to Russia presents major battlefield problem. This is whar some of the most autocrtatic sanctioned countries in the world do - they have created their own parallel universes virtually impervious to sanctions and Russia's desperate logistics have given new impetus to Iran and DPRK.The former now is almost certian to get it first nuke now.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-spy-chief-says-n-korean-military-aid-russia-presents-major-battlefield-2024-09-14/

 

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, said North Korean military aid to Russia presented the biggest concern compared to support provided by Moscow's other allies.
"They supply huge amounts of artillery ammunition, which is critical for Russia," he said, pointing to the ramp up in the battlefield hostilities following such deliveries.
Ukraine and the United States, among other countries and independent analysts, say North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is helping Russia in the war against Ukraine by supplying missiles and ammunition in return for economic and other military assistance from Moscow.

[beautifulthailand99]

As Biden deliberates, Ukraine’s nuclear plants are increasingly at risk - The risk of Ukraine losing the war this winter has pushed Washington and London to reconsider how Kyiv uses Western-supplied long-range missiles, but the U.S. remains fearful of escalation. - Politico

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-plants-energy-war-joe-biden-united-states-nato/

 

Currently, 55 percent of Ukraine’s energy is generated by its three operating nuclear power stations — the one in Zaporizhzhia, which is the largest nuclear plant in Europe, was captured by Russia in 2022 and has largely been shut down. Russian missile and drone strikes have destroyed 9 gigawatts of the country’s electrical generating capacity — that’s half of the peak winter consumption — with 80 percent of thermal generation from coal- and gas-fired power plants and a third of hydroelectric production capacity wiped out by bombing.

[Mavideol]

Two Russian soldiers predict their own deaths after arguing with commanding officer

https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-russian-soldiers-predict-own-174253360.html

 

[Mavideol]

Russian military aircraft detected off Alaskan coast for fourth time in past week, NORAD says

https://au.news.yahoo.com/russian-military-aircraft-detected-off-182249487.html

 

[beautifulthailand99]

‘Sprinkled with our blood’: Why so many Ukrainians resist land for peace - Ukraine is under pressure to cut a deal to end the war, especially if Trump wins, but there is likely to be fierce opposition from some soldiers and their families in the east. - The Washington Post

 

https://archive.is/VusHu

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Ukrainian foreign minister Sybiha said he would support Poland's idea to deprive EU benefits to Ukrainian men of mobilization age, adding that one million men of mobilization age were living abroad, including 300,000 in Poland - Euractiv

 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/poland-backs-ending-eu-benefits-for-ukrainian-men-of-fighting-age/

 

I vaguely know one in his thirties who has a Thai girlfriend who is a friend of the missus. University educated , great English and a high paying job in IT has no plans to return nor do many of his mates in the UK either.They are refugees I hope Europe continues to recognise their status and he has no time for either Putin or Zelenskiy or indeed any politics. Just wants to live in peace.

[Mavideol]

How Ukraine Turned Putin’s Own Trick Against Him

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-turned-putin-own-trick-090003995.html

 

[Mavideol]

Russia begins efforts to expel Ukraine from Kursk but counter-attack is yet to gain momentum

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-begins-efforts-expel-ukraine-143859454.html

 

[Mavideol]

mainly the ones trying to avoid being called in to fight

Poland calls for end to EU benefits for Ukrainian men of fighting age

https://au.yahoo.com/news/poland-calls-end-eu-benefits-123745403.html

 

[Mavideol]

pictures are much better then 1,000's words, they go caught

Russian ship captured in satellite image 'delivering ballistic missiles from Iran'

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russian-ship-captured-satellite-image-104100196.html

 

[Mavideol]

Putin Accused Of 'Shameless Grandstanding' Over Threat Of War With Nato

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-accused-shameless-grandstanding-over-075142804.html

[Mavideol]

Five former defence secretaries urge PM to let Ukraine fire UK missiles

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-renews-missile-appeal-us-192523130.html

 

[Mavideol]

everybody knows it and that's why I can't understand Biden decision to not allow specific military targets while the assassin keeps hitting residential buildings like he did today

 

Putin ally accuses NATO of already being party to Ukraine war

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-ally-accuses-nato-already-062010205.html

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Britain ‘won’t go it alone’ over long-range missiles for Ukraine
The UK will not approve the use of the weapons against targets in Russia without the agreement of the United States, as Zelensky pleads for ‘decisiveness’

 

https://archive.is/GRI8T#selection-1427.0-1431.154

 

US and UK policy have always been aligned since WW2 it is strict policy - only Harold Wilson had the guts to duck out of Vietnam in the 60s quite wisely at it turns out.

 

However, The Times has been told that the UK will not “go it alone” because US guidance systems were seen as crucial to ensuring the missiles hit their targets.
The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.

[beautifulthailand99]

WAPO - Opinion
Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever.
Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict.

 

https://archive.is/tqy9W#selection-571.0-583.85

 

Listening to their stories, you realize that Ukraine is bleeding out. Its will to fight is as strong as ever, but its army is exhausted by a ceaseless drone war that’s unlike anything in the history of combat. The Biden administration’s rubric of support — “as long as it takes” — simply doesn’t match the reality of this conflict. Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers to fight an indefinite war of attrition. It needs to escalate to be strong enough to reach a decent settlement.

[Bkk Brian]

It will come eventually, never too late but obviously would have been far more useful sooner than later.

 

The Russian targets that could be on Ukraine's long-range missile strike list

Calling the lifting of restrictions a "game changer is probably too strong a word," Andreas Umland, analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, told the Kyiv Independent. "But it would make a big difference of course. That's why the Ukrainians are so eager to get it." Western officials have been hesitant to openly talk about policy changes, likely out of concern that Russia will relocate potentially valuable targets out of reach before Ukraine is able to capitalize on its newfound range capabilities.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War last month identified "no fewer than 245 known Russian military and paramilitary sites" within the 300-kilometer range of U.S.-supplied ATACMS, which is currently the furthest range of any Western-supplied missiles available to Ukraine.

https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-targets-that-could-be-on-ukraines-long-range-missile-strike-list/

[Cameroni]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

WAPO - Opinion
Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever.
Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict.

 

https://archive.is/tqy9W#selection-571.0-583.85

 

Listening to their stories, you realize that Ukraine is bleeding out. Its will to fight is as strong as ever, but its army is exhausted by a ceaseless drone war that’s unlike anything in the history of combat. The Biden administration’s rubric of support — “as long as it takes” — simply doesn’t match the reality of this conflict. Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers to fight an indefinite war of attrition. It needs to escalate to be strong enough to reach a decent settlement.

 

I just saw the world's foremost expert on international relations, a 10 year officer in the US Air Force, John Mearsheimer, say that the Kursk offensive was a blunder, the reason that the Ukrainians were able to penetrate there was that there was hardly any Russians and all it achieved was to make Russian advances on the main front even easier.

 

With the blunders Ukraine is making, just my opinion, Ukraine is not really making the best use of its limited resources.

 

Mearsheimer also said though that Russia will not defeat Ukraine uncondintionally, rather, Ukraine will become a rump state.

[beautifulthailand99]

Juilan Roepcke one of the most fearerss and honest reporters from Ukraine is back in country on the front lines. Expect some great reporting in the next few days if he survives.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

It will come eventually, never too late but obviously would have been far more useful sooner than later.

 

The Russian targets that could be on Ukraine's long-range missile strike list

Calling the lifting of restrictions a "game changer is probably too strong a word," Andreas Umland, analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, told the Kyiv Independent. "But it would make a big difference of course. That's why the Ukrainians are so eager to get it." Western officials have been hesitant to openly talk about policy changes, likely out of concern that Russia will relocate potentially valuable targets out of reach before Ukraine is able to capitalize on its newfound range capabilities.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War last month identified "no fewer than 245 known Russian military and paramilitary sites" within the 300-kilometer range of U.S.-supplied ATACMS, which is currently the furthest range of any Western-supplied missiles available to Ukraine.

https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-targets-that-could-be-on-ukraines-long-range-missile-strike-list/

Before my hiatus I think I had covered this. Maybe not. From the FT.

 

https://archive.is/ZTGCk#selection-1647.4-1650.2

 

One problem, according to western officials, is that Russia began moving its aviation assets deeper inside Russia about three months ago, beyond the 250km range of Storm Shadows and the up to 300km range of Atacms.

Another problem is that inventories of Storm Shadows and Scalps are low, so even with permission for cross-border strikes Kyiv would not be able to deploy them in volume against multiple Russian targets.

“The missiles are no strategic panacea for Ukraine’s strategic military situation,” said another western official.

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Before my hiatus I think I had covered this. Maybe not. From the FT.

 

https://archive.is/ZTGCk#selection-1647.4-1650.2

 

One problem, according to western officials, is that Russia began moving its aviation assets deeper inside Russia about three months ago, beyond the 250km range of Storm Shadows and the up to 300km range of Atacms.

Another problem is that inventories of Storm Shadows and Scalps are low, so even with permission for cross-border strikes Kyiv would not be able to deploy them in volume against multiple Russian targets.

“The missiles are no strategic panacea for Ukraine’s strategic military situation,” said another western official.

 

ISW also covered that in its map of targets regardless of your hiatus

[Bkk Brian]

NATO military chair, others back Ukraine's use of long range weapons to hit Russia

The head of NATO's military committee said Saturday that Ukraine has the solid legal and military right to strike deep inside Russia to gain combat advantage — reflecting the beliefs of a number of U.S. allies — even as the Biden administration balks at allowing Kyiv to do so using American-made weapons.

“Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself. And that right doesn’t stop at the border of your own nation,” said Adm. Rob Bauer, speaking at the close of the committee's annual meeting, also attended by U.S. Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nato-military-committee-chair-back-ukraines-long-range-113690875

[beautifulthailand99]

MARK URBAN - Are Russia and Ukraine edging towards an endgame? Troop shortages and fatigue may force a reluctant Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table. Who’ll make the first move, asks Mark Urban, as he joins The Sunday Times (he is ex British Army and BBC and rumoured to be a spook!)

 

https://archive.is/S7RWN#selection-1431.0-1439.168

 

In May, a new mobilisation law came into force in response to army requests for up to 500,000 fresh troops, replacing casualties and allowing war weary soldiers to go home. It has yet to produce even a small fraction of that figure. There have been complaints from frontline units that new conscripts lack motivation or have even refused to fight.
All of this has fed into a dismal summer for the Ukrainian army across much of the Donbas region, the main battleground in the east, with the Russian army now closing in on the important transport hub of Pokrovsk. In many units, effective strength is down to one third or even a quarter.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

MARK URBAN - Are Russia and Ukraine edging towards an endgame? Troop shortages and fatigue may force a reluctant Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table. Who’ll make the first move, asks Mark Urban, as he joins The Sunday Times (he is ex British Army and BBC and rumoured to be a spook!)

 

https://archive.is/S7RWN#selection-1431.0-1439.168

 

In May, a new mobilisation law came into force in response to army requests for up to 500,000 fresh troops, replacing casualties and allowing war weary soldiers to go home. It has yet to produce even a small fraction of that figure. There have been complaints from frontline units that new conscripts lack motivation or have even refused to fight.
All of this has fed into a dismal summer for the Ukrainian army across much of the Donbas region, the main battleground in the east, with the Russian army now closing in on the important transport hub of Pokrovsk. In many units, effective strength is down to one third or even a quarter.

(he is ex British Army and BBC and rumoured to be a spook!)

 

Yes of course he is..............

[beautifulthailand99]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

NATO military chair, others back Ukraine's use of long range weapons to hit Russia

The head of NATO's military committee said Saturday that Ukraine has the solid legal and military right to strike deep inside Russia to gain combat advantage — reflecting the beliefs of a number of U.S. allies — even as the Biden administration balks at allowing Kyiv to do so using American-made weapons.

“Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself. And that right doesn’t stop at the border of your own nation,” said Adm. Rob Bauer, speaking at the close of the committee's annual meeting, also attended by U.S. Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nato-military-committee-chair-back-ukraines-long-range-113690875

The Ukrainains really want Taurus but Germany has said a firm no and the production line is currently idle. There are barely any left in European inventories that anyone who has them wants to spare. So a lot of this current debate is smoke and mirrors there just isn't the inventory even if the politic side was willing.

 

https://archive.is/5WPvN

 

The UK had around 700-1000 missiles around the 2000s, and there hasn't been any mention of a refresh order. Given the programs to replace the StormShadow started in early 2018, I doubt any have been ordered from then until recently, when the UK donated an unknown number to Ukraine. The last country to order StormShadow was Greece in 2019, and it took 3 years to deliver 90 missiles, with delivery complete in 2022.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The Ukrainains really want Taurus but Germany has said a firm no and the production line is currently idle. There are barely any left in European inventories that anyone who has them wants to spare. So a lot of this current debate is smoke and mirrors there just isn't the inventory even if the politic side was willing.

 

https://archive.is/5WPvN

 

The UK had around 700-1000 missiles around the 2000s, and there hasn't been any mention of a refresh order. Given the programs to replace the StormShadow started in early 2018, I doubt any have been ordered from then until recently, when the UK donated an unknown number to Ukraine. The last country to order StormShadow was Greece in 2019, and it took 3 years to deliver 90 missiles, with delivery complete in 2022.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

And? Any amount is is worthwhile to help Ukraine.

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

And? Any amount is is worthwhile to help Ukraine.

But they certainly wouldn't be game changers then if that was the case. It is back to ammo, artillery and barrels and drones. Given the widespread informed information out there about NATO missiles and the size of the inventory I am curious as to why Zelenskiy is highly focused on them in megaphone diplomacy.