Israel's Postwar Gaza Dilemma: Navigating Complex Choices

[Social Media]

 

In the aftermath of seven brutal months of war with Hamas, Israel faces a critical juncture in deciding who will govern the Gaza Strip. The options are few and fraught with complexity, and none appear to offer an easy solution. Despite significant military efforts, Hamas remains a resilient adversary, regrouping in some of the hardest-hit areas and resuming rocket attacks into nearby Israeli communities. As Israel contemplates its next steps, the choices range from full-scale occupation to seeking international cooperation, each with its own set of challenges and consequences.

 

Israel initially made significant advances against Hamas following powerful aerial strikes that paved the way for ground troops. However, these early victories have turned into a grinding struggle against an adaptable insurgency. This situation has evoked comparisons with the prolonged conflicts the United States faced in Iraq and Afghanistan, leading to a growing sentiment among Israelis that the military is confronted with only bad options. This sentiment was highlighted by recent dissent within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s three-man war cabinet. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and political rival Benny Gantz have demanded detailed postwar plans from Netanyahu. Their concerns reflect the broader apprehension about the absence of a clear strategy for Gaza's future.

 

The conflict, which began after Hamas's October 7 cross-border attack that killed 1,200 people and led to 252 abductions to Gaza, has been marked by one of the heaviest bombing campaigns in recent history. Ground operations have claimed the lives of 286 Israeli soldiers. The fighting has caused widespread devastation, disrupted humanitarian aid, and, according to the UN’s World Food Program, pushed parts of Gaza into famine. Gallant and Gantz, both retired generals, fear the repercussions of a prolonged, costly reoccupation of Gaza, from which Israel withdrew all its soldiers and settlers in 2005.

 

Their opposition to a full-scale reoccupation is shared by many Israelis, who point to the immense costs and responsibilities of such an undertaking. As an occupying power, Israel would be expected to provide health, education, and other services to Gaza's 2.3 million residents. Additionally, there is no guarantee that an occupation would succeed in eliminating Hamas.

 

Full-Scale Military Occupation: A Questionable Path

Netanyahu has promised a "total victory" that would remove Hamas from power, dismantle its military capabilities, and return the hostages. He has suggested that victory could come within weeks if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah, which is considered the last Hamas stronghold. Retired General Amir Avivi supports this view, stating that Israel would need to remain in control to prevent Hamas from regrouping.

"If you don’t drain the swamp, you cannot deal with the mosquitoes. And drain the swamp means a complete change in the education system, and dealing with local leadership and not with a terror organization," Avivi said. "This is a generational process. It’s not going to happen in a day."

 

However, most Israelis oppose a permanent occupation, citing the immense costs and responsibilities. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition have called for "voluntary emigration" of large numbers of Palestinians and the rebuilding of Jewish settlements in Gaza. But such measures are likely to face significant opposition both domestically and internationally.

 

A Lighter Occupation with Local Administration: An Elusive Solution

Netanyahu has also proposed maintaining security control over Gaza while delegating civilian administration to local Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority (PA). He has suggested that Arab and other countries assist with governance and rebuilding. However, finding local collaborators has proven difficult, as Hamas has threatened to treat them as collaborators, which is a veiled death threat.

Efforts to engage Palestinian businessmen and powerful families have been unsuccessful. Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University and a former military intelligence officer, described this approach as searching for "unicorns" — something that does not exist.

 

Arab states have also roundly rejected involvement in this scenario. Even the United Arab Emirates, which formally recognizes Israel and has close ties with it, has declined to participate. "The UAE refuses to be involved in any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip," said UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

 

A Grand Bargain with International Involvement: A Difficult Path

A more ambitious proposal backed by some Arab states involves a comprehensive peace plan aimed at resolving the long-standing conflict and transforming the Middle East. This plan envisions a reformed PA governing Gaza with the assistance of Arab and Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia. In return, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel, and the U.S. would provide a defense pact and support for building a civilian nuclear program.

 

However, this plan hinges on Israel committing to a credible path to Palestinian statehood, something Netanyahu, Gallant, and Gantz have ruled out. They argue that it would reward Hamas and result in a terrorist-run state on Israel’s borders. Palestinians, on the other hand, insist that ending Israel’s control and creating a fully independent state in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem is the only way to end the cycle of violence.

 

A Deal with Hamas: A Controversial Proposal

Hamas has proposed a phased agreement that would involve releasing all hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a lengthy ceasefire, and reconstruction efforts. While this proposal might provide immediate relief and return the hostages, it would likely leave Hamas in control of Gaza and allow it to rebuild its military capabilities. Such a deal could also threaten Netanyahu’s political position by potentially collapsing his coalition.

 

Supporters of this approach argue that it could offer significant benefits, including easing regional tensions and allowing for a reassessment of the security failures that led to the October 7 attack. Milshtein suggests that Israel could adopt Hamas’s concept of a "hudna," a prolonged period of strategic calm that would allow both sides to strengthen their positions before any future conflicts. "Hudna doesn’t mean a peace agreement," Milshtein said. "It’s a ceasefire that you will exploit in order to make yourself stronger and then to attack and surprise your enemy."

 

Israel's options for postwar Gaza are complex and fraught with uncertainty. A full-scale military occupation poses immense costs and responsibilities, while a lighter occupation or grand bargain requires significant international cooperation and local support that are currently lacking. A deal with Hamas, though potentially providing immediate relief, could ultimately empower the group and fail to provide a lasting solution. As Israel navigates these difficult choices, it must balance immediate security needs with long-term implications for peace and stability in the region.

 

Credit: Times of Israel 2024-05-24

 

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[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:35 AM, Social Media said:

The options are few and fraught with complexity, and none appear to offer an easy solution.

Indeed they are, however, using force has not succeeded in subduing the desire for freedom among Palestinians since 1967, and is not going to in the future.

If israel can't see that it's time for a new approach, one recognising that Palestinians have as much right to freedom and self determination as israelis do, then israel is condemned to repeating the cycle of violence and death till the politics in the US changes and israel no longer gets cover from the US.

One hopes that after this, the rest of the world does not go back to ignoring what happens in Palestine. I would like to see a campaign similar to the anti apartheid campaign that removed the white South Africans from power. That took a while, but eventually right prevailed. The 2 state solution is possible, but only if israel returns to it's legal borders of 1949 and Palestinians reclaim their part of the country.

 

On 5/24/2024 at 8:35 AM, Social Media said:

Far-right members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition have called for "voluntary emigration" of large numbers of Palestinians and the rebuilding of Jewish settlements in Gaza. But such measures are likely to face significant opposition both domestically and internationally.

One hopes that such an option is rightly opposed by the international community. The idea that an entire race is subject to forced displacement from their own land should be rejected outright- that is the sort of thing that happened in Russia during Stalin's time.

 

On 5/24/2024 at 8:35 AM, Social Media said:

Netanyahu has also proposed maintaining security control over Gaza while delegating civilian administration to local Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority (PA). He has suggested that Arab and other countries assist with governance and rebuilding. However, finding local collaborators has proven difficult, as Hamas has threatened to treat them as collaborators, which is a veiled death threat.

 

What unaffiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority organisations would that be? I can't believe that is a serious proposal. It can't be the PA as that is despised by Palestinians for collaborating with the israelis. Arab leaders will be well aware that colluding with israel to suppress Palestinians will not go down well with their own populations.

 

BTW, why should any country other than israel and the western countries that colluded in the destruction of Gaza pay to rebuild it. They were not complicit in dropping 2,000 lb bombs on residential buildings, and destroying hospitals and schools.

 

Seems to me that it's going to be business as usual, as apparently most israelis do not want to give up the West Bank, and we will continue to see more disruption in the running sore that is Palestine for decades to come. IMO the only hope for change is that the politics in the US will change and the israeli lobby will lose it's power to influence US M E policies.

[Jeff the Chef]

Armenia has formally recognised of the state of Palestine, the Armenian foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday. 

The ministry cited the "catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza" among the reasons behind its decision, which was welcomed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas, and prompted a rebuke from Israel. 

Yerevan rejected violence against civilians and hostage-taking, the foreign ministry's statement said, adding that it was committed to establishing "lasting reconciliation between the Jewish and Palestinian peoples". The statement reaffirmed Armenia's support for a "two-state" solution.

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/armenia-recognises-palestine-state

[Neeranam]

On 5/24/2024 at 3:35 AM, Social Media said:

In the aftermath of seven brutal months of war with Hamas, Israel faces a critical juncture in deciding who will govern the Gaza Strip.

Israel has no right to determine who governs Gaza. The people of Gaza have the right to self-determination and should be allowed to choose their own leaders without external interference.

[Neeranam]

On 5/27/2024 at 2:56 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

BTW, why should any country other than israel and the western countries that colluded in the destruction of Gaza pay to rebuild it. They were not complicit in dropping 2,000 lb bombs on residential buildings, and destroying hospitals and schools.

 

Of course! 

The USA should pay for the reconstruction as they are responsible for most the destruction by sending the bombs and money for the Israeli army.

[Cryingdick]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Israel has no right to determine who governs Gaza. The people of Gaza have the right to self-determination and should be allowed to choose their own leaders without external interference.

 

They chose Hamas last time thats why they are living in rubble and starving. 

[Nick Carter icp]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Of course! 

The USA should pay for the reconstruction as they are responsible for most the destruction by sending the bombs and money for the Israeli army.

 

  Steady on , they haven't finished knocking Gaza down yet 

[Jeff the Chef]

Israel has 2 choices, either negotiate with the Palestinians a permanent ceasefire, move back to the 67 borders and a 2 state solution, or a forever terrorist war.

[Neeranam]

7 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

 

They chose Hamas last time thats why they are living in rubble and starving. 

Freedom comes at a price. 

Do you know how  Gazans have been living the last years? 

A clue blockade, occupation, discrimination. 

 

[Neeranam]

3 hours ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Israel has 2 choices, either negotiate with the Palestinians a permanent ceasefire, move back to the 67 borders and a 2 state solution, or a forever terrorist war.

They are greedy and it is against their nature to give back stolen land, they would rather become a pariah state than do that. 

Hopefully other counties will come into this conflict to force them give the land back and stop their war crimes. Hopefully the US will stop supporting this ethnic cleansing by giving them billions of $, weapons, etc

[coolcarer]

4 hours ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Israel has 2 choices, either negotiate with the Palestinians a permanent ceasefire, move back to the 67 borders and a 2 state solution, or a forever terrorist war.

Negotiate with the Hamas terrorists you mean who don’t want Israel state to ever exist.

[Jeff the Chef]

34 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

Negotiate with the Hamas terrorists you mean who don’t want Israel state to ever exist.

 

As I said negotiate or have a forever war.

[coolcarer]

49 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

 

As I said negotiate or have a forever war.

That’s not what you said though and until Hamas terrorists are eliminated there will always be a forever war. Sounds like you want that

[Jeff the Chef]

6 hours ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Israel has 2 choices, either negotiate with the Palestinians a permanent ceasefire, move back to the 67 borders and a 2 state solution, or a forever terrorist war.

 

1 hour ago, coolcarer said:

Negotiate with the Hamas terrorists you mean who don’t want Israel state to ever exist.

 

55 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

 

As I said negotiate or have a forever war.

 

4 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

That’s not what you said though and until Hamas terrorists are eliminated there will always be a forever war. Sounds like you want that

 

Never mentioned Hamas, you did. I said Palestinians, as for your comment "Sounds like you want that", get your facts right before making accusations, I just want peace in the region.

[coolcarer]

9 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

 

 

 

 

Never mentioned Hamas, you did. I said Palestinians, as for your comment "Sounds like you want that", get your facts right before making accusations, I just want peace in the region.

Yes of course you want peace. I said Hamas because you didn’t. Negotiations are with them did you forget they are still holding hostages and nothing happens till they are released. Why do you repeat all posts. Does it make you think you are right? They were all there before.

[Jeff the Chef]

6 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

Yes of course you want peace. I said Hamas because you didn’t. Negotiations are with them did you forget they are still holding hostages and nothing happens till they are released. Thyroid do you repeat all posts. Does it make you think you are right?

 

Please reread my post and inwardly digest, nothing more to say to you, thanks.

[coolcarer]

2 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

 

Please reread my post and inwardly digest, nothing more to say to you, thanks.

No. Why should I re read your misinformed post again.

[Jeff the Chef]

The most moral army, strikes again:

 

The Israeli military has said its forces violated protocol by strapping a wounded Palestinian man to the front of their vehicle during a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the incident after it was captured on video and shared on social media. An IDF statement said the man was wounded in an exchange of fire during the raid, in which he was a suspect.
The injured man's family said that when they asked for an ambulance, the army took him, strapped him to the bonnet of their jeep and drove off.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjqq5n8911do

[thainet]

10 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

The most moral army, strikes again:

 

The Israeli military has said its forces violated protocol by strapping a wounded Palestinian man to the front of their vehicle during a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the incident after it was captured on video and shared on social media. An IDF statement said the man was wounded in an exchange of fire during the raid, in which he was a suspect.
The injured man's family said that when they asked for an ambulance, the army took him, strapped him to the bonnet of their jeep and drove off.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjqq5n8911do

Using a person as a human shield is only 'violating protocol'....

[Nick Carter icp]

11 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

The most moral army, strikes again:

 

The Israeli military has said its forces violated protocol by strapping a wounded Palestinian man to the front of their vehicle during a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the incident after it was captured on video and shared on social media. An IDF statement said the man was wounded in an exchange of fire during the raid, in which he was a suspect.
The injured man's family said that when they asked for an ambulance, the army took him, strapped him to the bonnet of their jeep and drove off.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjqq5n8911do

 

   The IDF took him to hospital . 

Most other armies in the World would have killed him, him being an enemy combatant firing at the IDF

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   The IDF took him to hospital . 

Most other armies in the World would have killed him, him being an enemy combatant firing at the IDF

Kill an possible prisoner with information? 

 

Sometimes better to be killed on battlefield than brought back alive and tortured before killed. 

 

Have also value for trading back some of your own.

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Kill an possible prisoner with information? 

 

Sometimes better to be killed on battlefield than brought back alive and tortured before killed. 

 

Have also value for trading back some of your own.

 

   He was taken to hospital .

Hamas would have murdered him had he been a Jew

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Kill an possible prisoner with information? 

 

Sometimes better to be killed on battlefield than brought back alive and tortured before killed. 

 

Have also value for trading back some of your own.

Would you have preferred for the IDF to leave him there to die?

[Hummin]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Would you have preferred for the IDF to leave him there to die?

How come you think so? I said the prisoner might be of value more alive than killed. 

[Hanaguma]

30 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

The most moral army, strikes again:

 

The Israeli military has said its forces violated protocol by strapping a wounded Palestinian man to the front of their vehicle during a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the incident after it was captured on video and shared on social media. An IDF statement said the man was wounded in an exchange of fire during the raid, in which he was a suspect.
The injured man's family said that when they asked for an ambulance, the army took him, strapped him to the bonnet of their jeep and drove off.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjqq5n8911do

This doesnt seem reasonable to you?  As a civilian firing on the IDF, he is lucky to not be killed immediately. 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Hummin said:

How come you think so? I said the prisoner might be of value more alive than killed. 

I asked a question. 

 

[Jeff the Chef]

A better view here:

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/6/23/israeli-military-says-soldiers-violated-orders-by-tying-man-to-vehicle

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Jeff the Chef said:

A better view here:

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/6/23/israeli-military-says-soldiers-violated-orders-by-tying-man-to-vehicle

Al Jazerra "apparently using him as a human shield" What B.S.

[Hummin]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I asked a question. 

 

To answer you question in a different way, what comes around, goes around, and fits perfectly on this conflict and war for both parts. 

[Nick Carter icp]

5 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

A better view here:

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/6/23/israeli-military-says-soldiers-violated-orders-by-tying-man-to-vehicle

 

   The IDF raided Jenin and confiscated a car which had belonged to an Israeli man who was shot killed in Jenin a few days ago ?

   That does show how extremely biased Al Jaz are .

Israel taking back an Israelis car and Al Jaz state it was being confiscated