Middle East Allies Weigh Potential Benefits of a Second Trump Presidency

[Social Media]

 

As the Republican convention unfolds in Milwaukee, the possibility of Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House is becoming more tangible. Leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, key U.S. allies in the Middle East, are keenly assessing how a second Trump presidency might influence their domestic and regional agendas.

 

For these leaders, who enjoyed warm relations with Trump during his first term, there are perceived advantages to his potential return. A central consideration is how Trump might handle the ongoing war in Gaza, which has significantly impacted Israeli politics and unsettled both Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had a strained relationship with Trump after he congratulated Joe Biden following the 2020 election, a move Trump viewed as disloyal. However, Netanyahu and Trump had a strong alliance during Trump’s first term. A second Trump presidency could bolster Netanyahu’s right-wing government, particularly if the conflict in Gaza extends into the coming year.

 

Trump has endorsed Israel's actions in Gaza, stating that Israel should "do what you have to do," and has criticized pro-Palestinian protesters in the U.S. His alignment with Netanyahu extends to their shared hardline stance on Iran. Trump withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear agreement with Iran, a move that pleased Netanyahu, and supported diplomatic agreements between Israel and several Arab states. If re-elected, Trump is likely to continue efforts to forge a similar arrangement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

 

Saudi Arabia also sees potential benefits in a second Trump term. The Trump Organization recently signed a deal with a Saudi real estate company to construct a residential tower, reflecting the Trump family's ongoing ties with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is a significant investor in an investment firm founded by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, after his White House tenure.

Additionally, the Saudi-backed LIV Golf league has been a substantial new revenue source for the Trump family. During his presidency, Trump had a close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, defending him after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, Gulf officials privately acknowledge Trump’s unpredictability, noting his lack of a strong response to an Iran-backed attack on Saudi oil fields in 2019. Despite this, Saudi officials have recently emphasized their ability to work with both U.S. political parties.

 

Egypt also benefited from warm relations with Trump, despite some Egyptian officials' concerns over perceived anti-Muslim bias among Trump’s advisers. Trump once referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as "my favorite dictator." Under Trump, the U.S. rarely criticized el-Sisi’s government, which has received over $1 billion in annual aid from the U.S. since Egypt became the first Arab country to make peace with Israel in 1979. When Biden took office, his administration initially threatened to withhold aid due to Egypt's human rights abuses, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy. However, Egypt’s role as a mediator in regional conflicts helped restore warmer relations with the Biden administration.

 

For Egypt, the potential return of Trump could reaffirm the status quo, reinforcing the belief that while U.S. presidents may change, Egypt remains a crucial regional partner. Analysts suggest that if Trump’s approach to el-Sisi remains as friendly as during his first term, it could reduce pressure on Egypt to implement reforms.

 

Overall, the prospect of a second Trump presidency is seen by America’s Middle Eastern allies as an opportunity to strengthen their positions both domestically and regionally, leveraging their established relationships with Trump to advance their strategic goals.

 

Credit: NYT 2024-07-19

 

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[cncltd1973]

that's a tangled mess of conflict of interest with Trump and Saudi

[cncltd1973]

1 billion annual payment to Egypt for keeping the peace? sums up dealing with an Islamic state. I wonder what they would do if accepting women's rights were mandatory for the deal?

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

Gulf officials privately acknowledge Trump’s unpredictability

Unpredictability has both advantages & disadvantages.

 

Enemies & neutrals like it because they think they can live with it and manipulate it.

 

Friends hate it because they know they can't depend on him.

[Hanaguma]

Well, Trump is the president who finally moved the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, after so many broken promises by previous administrations.  We may also see an expansion of the Abraham Accords to countries like Saudi Arabia.  I can't see any downside. 

[expat_4_life]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

Well, Trump is the president who finally moved the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, after so many broken promises by previous administrations.  We may also see an expansion of the Abraham Accords to countries like Saudi Arabia.  I can't see any downside. 

I would like to add that the Middle East of the first Trump Presidency no longer exists.

China brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.  Russia moving closer to Iran and Syria.  Houthis effectively closed the Red Sea.  Russia and China closer than ever.  Iran and North Korea both brought in from "the cold" by Russia and China.  Turkey hedging it's bets.

BRICS on the rise in a geopolitical realignment.  Adding full members, which include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates effective 1 January, 2024.  And another summit coming in Oct before the election with around 40 countries clamoring to join.

Both Gaza and Ukraine wars must be brought to settlements. 
This is all linked ... Rough times ahead.

Edited July 19 by expat_4_life

[frank83628]

18 minutes ago, expat_4_life said:

Downsides, not sure.  I would like to add that the Middle East of the first Trump Presidency no longer exists.

China brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.  Russia moving closer to Iran and Syria.  Houthis effectively closed the Red Sea.  Russia and China closer than ever.  Iran and North Korea both brought in from "the cold" by Russia and China.  Turkey hedging it's bets.

BRICS on the rise in a geopolitical realignment.  Adding full members, which include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates effective 1 January, 2024.  And another summit coming in Oct before the election with around 40 countries clamoring to join.

Both Gaza and Ukraine wars must be brought to settlements. 
This is all linked ... Rough times ahead.

that all sounds good to me

[Bkk Brian]

As Nikki Haley said at the RNC convention a couple of days ago.

 

She lauded Trump's foreign policy while serving as U.S. ambassador to the UN, paying particular attention to the Middle East
"Every problem in that part of the world can be laid at Iran. The dictators who chant 'death to America' are the weapons suppliers to Hamas and Hezbollah," she said. "They're behind the barbaric massacres and the hostage taking."

"Between Israel and Hamas, Donald Trump is clear who is our friend and who is our enemy," said Haley.

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-07-17/ty-article/.premium/citing-israel-and-iran-nikki-haley-urges-republicans-to-unite-behind-trump/00000190-be6b-d2f8-abdb-be6fba2b0000

https://archive.ph/yjl4I

[spidermike007]

One thing we know for sure, he would be in absolute lock step with MBS and the Saudis and he would follow their every directive. He would be a very loyal subject and would show absolute fealty to them, just like he did in his last term. 

[pelagicpete]

The strongest dog will be nominated the leader of the pack.