Harris Leads Trump by Narrow Margin in Presidential Race, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows

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Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, following President Joe Biden's decision to step aside and endorse her candidacy. Harris, now the Democratic frontrunner, leads Trump by a marginal two percentage points, 44% to 42%. This slim advantage contrasts with the two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week’s poll before he announced his withdrawal from the race on Sunday.

 

The poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, came in the wake of the Republican National Convention where Trump formally accepted the nomination, and Biden's endorsement of Harris. Harris' campaign claims she has secured the Democratic nomination, with the poll showing her leading Trump by a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. In previous polls, Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in mid-July, and Trump led by one percentage point at the beginning of the month.

 

While nationwide polls provide valuable insights into candidate support, the U.S. Electoral College, influenced by a few key battleground states, ultimately determines the presidential election winner. A pollster from Trump’s campaign downplayed Harris’ polling increase, attributing it to temporary heightened media coverage of her new candidacy. Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio mentioned in a memo that such bumps in popularity are expected following significant announcements and events.

 

Despite expectations of a post-convention bump for Trump, the latest poll did not show any such increase. This underscores the rationale behind Biden's decision to drop out and support Harris as his replacement. The poll reveals a perception among voters that Harris is more mentally sharp and capable of handling challenges compared to both Biden and Trump. About 56% of registered voters agreed that Harris, at 59, was "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 49% for Trump, who is 78, and only 22% for Biden, who is 81. Biden ended his reelection campaign following a debate with Trump, where he was criticized for often stammering and not effectively countering Trump’s attacks.

 

Within the Democratic voter base, Harris enjoys substantial support. About 91% of Democratic voters view her favorably, compared to 80% for Biden. Moreover, three-quarters of Democratic voters believe the party and its supporters should unite behind Harris now, rather than having multiple candidates compete for the nomination. 

 

In a hypothetical scenario where independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, Harris maintains a lead over Trump, 42% to 38%, which falls outside the margin of error. Kennedy, favored by 8% of voters, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the November 5 election.

 

Harris is actively campaigning, recently making a stop in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. Attention is now shifting to her choice of running mate. The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that many voters are unfamiliar with the potential candidates to join Harris on the ticket. U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former presidential candidate, has the highest favorability rating among potential running mates at 37%, yet one in four voters have never heard of him. Similarly, one in three voters are unfamiliar with California Governor Gavin Newsom, and half of the respondents do not know Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Two-thirds of voters are unaware of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.

 

The poll, conducted online, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters, providing a snapshot of the current political landscape as Harris steps into the spotlight as the Democratic Party’s leading candidate.

 

Credit: Reuters 2024-07-24

 

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[novacova]

We will have to wait for the results of the last poll, it’s the only one that matters.

[stoner]

can you feel the excitement in the air ?