Russia’s Summer Offensive Fails to Deliver a Decisive Blow

[Social Media]

 

The Kremlin's highly anticipated summer offensive in Ukraine was intended to be a war-winning maneuver. Launched in the spring, this massive military operation was the largest since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. However, despite high hopes for a decisive breakthrough, the offensive has failed to achieve its most ambitious objectives. The Ukrainian front line has held firm, and there has been no grand collapse of Ukrainian defenses. The offensive, intended to end the war in Russia's favor, has instead resulted in slow and costly gains for the Russian military.

 

The British Ministry of Defence reported staggering casualty figures for the Russian forces, with an average of 1,262 and 1,162 casualties per day in May and June, respectively. These numbers represent the highest daily casualties of the conflict thus far. Despite this, Russian forces continue to advance, albeit slowly. Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butosov recently highlighted a "critical situation" near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces managed to advance four miles in one week. Butosov warned that if the Russians were allowed to enter Myrnohrad, it would enable them to concentrate their forces and potentially attack Pokrovsk itself, threatening the last line of defense before reaching the Dnipropetrovsk region.

 

Deep State, a Ukrainian war blog, reported that a "chaotic withdrawal" by one of the Ukrainian infantry brigades had nearly encircled the 31st separate mechanized brigade near the village of Prohres. Michael Koffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who recently visited the front lines, acknowledged the grim reality: "Ukraine is going to be losing more territory over the coming months." Despite initial predictions of a Russian blitzkrieg reaching Kyiv, the current focus remains on capturing the Donetsk region, a key territorial objective for Russia. Vladimir Putin has consistently stated this goal, and all Russian battlefield efforts appear directed toward its achievement.

 

Timing, opportunity, and political considerations are critical factors in this offensive. Russia hopes that a potential victory by Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election will create favorable conditions for peace talks. If Russia can hold significant territories in the Donbas region, such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk, they could frame it as a victory domestically. Currently, Russia enjoys an advantage in men, equipment, and ammunition, but this superiority may diminish by the end of the year. The Russian military is keen to capitalize on this window of dominance.

The Russian offensive strategy, orchestrated by General Valery Gerasimov, involves multiple efforts along the front lines. These include an offensive from the Belgorod region to the northeast of Kharkiv, a thrust towards the Oskil River south of Kupiansk, and main attacks further south from Bakhmut towards Chasiv Yar and from Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk. Additionally, a subsidiary attack has developed on Niu-York and Toretsk. There have also been assaults further south aimed at threatening Kurakhove.

 

The initial assault on Kharkiv aimed to establish a buffer zone to prevent Ukrainian strikes into Belgorod and to divert Ukrainian reserves from the main front in Donbas. While the first objective failed, the second was more successful. Ukraine was forced to divert several brigades to contain the threat, highlighting a shortage of mobile reserves. Despite this diversion, the Russians failed to exploit their initial success. The premature start of the Kharkiv offensive took both Ukrainians and Russians by surprise, leading to a delay in assaults in Donbas.

 

In Donbas, since the Kharkiv offensive began, the Russians have advanced only a few miles towards key targets like Pokrovsk and Prohres. Their progress has been slow and costly, with former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk noting the brutal tactics employed by the Russians: "They are sending a lot of people, losing a lot of people, and gaining a few meters." Despite the slow progress, these small advances could cumulatively pose significant threats to Ukrainian defenses.

 

One reason for recent Russian successes is their strategy of concentrating attacks on weaker Ukrainian units. Russian attacks now often involve small infantry actions, reflecting the difficulties both sides face in crossing no-man's-land with traditional armored assaults. The Russians have developed improvised techniques, such as using heavily armored "turtle tanks" and fast-moving motorcycles, to navigate the battlefield. While not foolproof, these methods have yielded some gains, especially when combined with the use of glide bombs, which have become more accurate and psychologically impactful.

 

Ukraine's critical shortages of men, shells, and prepared defensive positions are gradually being addressed. President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill overhauling conscription rules in April, significantly increasing troop numbers. The United States Congress approved a military aid package, reducing Russia's ammunition superiority. F-16 fighters are expected to bolster Ukrainian defenses this summer. As these new resources arrive, Russia's battlefield dominance is likely to erode.

 

However, Russia faces its own challenges. Its stocks of armored vehicles are dwindling, and recruitment problems have led to increased salary offers for military volunteers. The tempo of Russian operations may need to be reduced as these issues persist.

 

The next few months remain critical. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky acknowledged Russia's advantage in equipment. Journalist Yuri Butosov noted that the crisis on the Pokrovsk front is exacerbated by inadequate defenses and a lack of unified command. Ukrainian reserves remain tied up near Kharkiv, making it difficult to reinforce other areas. Despite likely continued Russian advances until September, the battle for Donbas may not determine the war's outcome. Michael Koffman emphasized that the attrition affecting each side's ability to wage war is more significant than territorial gains.

 

In conclusion, Russia's summer offensive has not delivered the decisive blow it intended. While the Russian military has made some gains, these have come at a high cost and without achieving a grand breakthrough. Ukraine's defenses have held, and the arrival of new troops and equipment may shift the balance of power. The war remains complex and fluid, with both sides facing significant challenges and uncertainties in the months ahead.

 

Credit: Daily Telegraph 2024-07-30

 

 

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[Tug]

Seems to have succeeded in killing a lot of Russian boys and squandered lots of equipment and money there’s that……..

[gargamon]

And Russia is now offering a $22k USD bonus to the families of anyone in Moscow who volunteer to go fight in Ukraine and likely be killed.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, Social Media said:

In conclusion, Russia's summer offensive has not delivered the decisive blow it intended. While the Russian military has made some gains, these have come at a high cost and without achieving a grand breakthrough.

As long as Russia is advancing and not retreating it's not a failure, except for western propaganda. IMO it's all about holding on till the election.

 

7 hours ago, Social Media said:

Ukraine's defenses have held, and the arrival of new troops and equipment may shift the balance of power.

"May" being the relevant word.

Those troops will likely be unwilling conscripts with no Ukrainian  successes to boost their morale and rushed training.

 

7 hours ago, Social Media said:

The war remains complex and fluid, with both sides facing significant challenges and uncertainties in the months ahead.

That is certainly 100% true.

 

[Rimmer]

Troll post has been removed

[retarius]

You can always tell a western propaganda piece it always calls the SMO a "fun scale invasion." Every newspaper in Britain and the US uses the same terminology, that has been tested in market research. There are several other terms used, one being "unprovoked" to describe Russia's provoked and limited scale invasion of 4 oblasts. 

[Jingthing]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:06 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

As long as Russia is advancing and not retreating it's not a failure, except for western propaganda. IMO it's all about holding on till the election.

 

"May" being the relevant word.

Those troops will likely be unwilling conscripts with no Ukrainian  successes to boost their morale and rushed training.

 

That is certainly 100% true.

 

Yes about the election.

Genocidal war criminal Putin making the recent hostage deal with Biden Harris is a clue that the Kremlin doesn't think their poodles Trump Vance will win. 

Remember the dotard bragging about the hostage deal that he alone can fix.

[Jingthing]

36 minutes ago, retarius said:

You can always tell a western propaganda piece it always calls the SMO a "fun scale invasion." Every newspaper in Britain and the US uses the same terminology, that has been tested in market research. There are several other terms used, one being "unprovoked" to describe Russia's provoked and limited scale invasion of 4 oblasts. 

Wow do you actually believe that crap? The world saw the initial push to Kyiv and attempts to assassinate Zelensky.

Who do you think you're fooling other than fellow traveller Z maga types?

[pegman]

On 8/11/2024 at 2:55 AM, Jingthing said:

Wow do you actually believe that crap? The world saw the initial push to Kyiv and attempts to assassinate Zelensky.

Who do you think you're fooling other than fellow traveller Z maga types?

The move on Kyiv was to put pressure on Ukraine to sign peace accords in Istanbul. According to Internationally renowned International affairs experts like Professor John Mearsheimer the UK and USA got to Zelensky. Famed investigative reporter Seymour Hersh has written how the Ukrainian president was paid off with $100's transferred to Cypress bank accounts. I believe these people over the propagandist mainstream media in your country. You know the ones that hyped up Bush's WMD in Iraq to start the illegal war murdered a million people. I was doing a little research today and came across an interesting fact. Lloyd Austin's former employer Rathon's share price has gone up >90% since Biden was elected. The military industrial complex and Big Oil in the USA have made a killing over the Ukraine-Russian War.               https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-russia-war-peace-diplomacy/