Warning Signs of US Recession: A Potential Setback for Kamala Harris

[Yellowtail]

As inflation wages outpaces wages, a growing GDP does not help wage earners. 

 

And since Biden took office, the payment to buy a home on a 30-year fixed is up over 60%

[TedG]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

The whole country benefits from GDP growth. That's why all governments try to increase it.

People suffer from inflation everywhere in the world, ex in the graph you posted, the EU only had a few % less inflation

 Oh yea, we sure benefit from debt fueled GDP growth.  

[candide]

16 minutes ago, TedG said:

 

I just showed you the cumulative inflation using the CPI-W  from Jan 2019 to Jun 2024.  A person who does not understand that inflation is cumulative should not call someone ignorant. 

Tell that to Yellowtail, who was the first to use this comparison. I just replied to him.

 

You are absolutely right.

 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

The whole country benefits from GDP growth. That's why all governments try to increase it.

People suffer from inflation everywhere in the world, ex in the graph you posted, the EU only had a few % less inflation

 

Please explain how a middle-class guy whose wages do not keep pace with inflation benifs from an increasing GDP? 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

Tell that to Yellowtail, who was the first to use this comparison. I just replied to him.

 

You are absolutely right.

 

So now you're going to start telling stories? I never said inflations was not cumulative. 

 

Can we not just try to have a civil discussion? 

[candide]

14 minutes ago, TedG said:

Here is the a link to the CPI-W table. 

 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/cpiw.html

 

You can choose any endpoint you want.  If you go from Jan 2021 to Jun 2024 it’s about 20.7%. 

Ok, I'm not denying it. How does it compare with global inflation?

[candide]

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

So, per your link, global inflation is up 80% as compared to 2020. 

 

Yet US inflation is up over 100%

 

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So now you're going to start telling stories? I never said inflations was not cumulative. 

 

Can we not just try to have a civil discussion? 

You compared the inflation rate in the year 2020 to the inflation rate in the year 2024, in order to claim that inflation increased in the U.S. by more than 100%. 

[Yellowtail]

22 minutes ago, candide said:

 

You compared the inflation rate in the year 2020 to the inflation rate in the year 2024, in order to claim that inflation increased in the U.S. by more than 100%. 

The inflation rate did increase more than 100%. 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, TedG said:

Biden stimulus increased inflation by 4% in the USA.  

 

Mr Biden’s stimulus did, however, put a rocket under inflation. In April “core” consumer prices, which exclude energy and food, were 13.4% higher than when he came to office. They have risen more than in other g7 countries, and their acceleration coincided with the introduction of Mr Biden’s stimulus. Research suggests that, even by September 2022, the largesse was pushing up core inflation by about four percentage points.

 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/joe-biden-is-more-responsible-for-high-inflation-than-for-abundant-jobs

If you calculate US inflation the way the eu calculates inflation, then the results are just about identical. The method is called the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. It's what the EU uses. The US Fed also uses it to compare US inflation to EU inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000USM086NEST

 

inflation. As you can see the levels are virtually the same.

The reason there is such a big disparity is due to the way that the US measures housing prices.

Here's a link to an explanation:

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-a-more-accurate-metric-of-disinflation/

 

 

 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If you calculate US inflation the way the eu calculates inflation, then the results are just about identical. The method is called the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. It's what the EU uses. The US Fed also uses it to compare US inflation to EU inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000USM086NEST

 

inflation. As you can see the levels are virtually the same.

The reason there is such a big disparity is due to the way that the US measures housing prices.

Here's a link to an explanation:

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-a-more-accurate-metric-of-disinflation/

 

 

 

 

 

So, claiming the US is doing so much better than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes? 

 

 

[candide]

43 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

The inflation rate did increase more than 100%. 

 

 

 

 

The point is that it's you, not me, who started to compare yearly inflation rates, a way which TedG is considering as an indicator of ignorance.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

The point is that it's you, not me, who started to compare yearly inflation rates, a way which TedG is considering as an indicator of ignorance.

Okay, well I'm sorry about that, I thought we were trying to have an honest discussion. 

 

In any event, would you please explain how a middle-class guy whose wages do not keep pace with inflation benefits from an increasing GDP? 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

19 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So, claiming the US is doing so much better than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes? 

 

 

If inflation is your only measure of how well a country is doing economically, then you're making an excellent point. On the other hand, if you care to factor in emploment levels and GDP growth,  then you're definitely not making an excellent point.

[Yellowtail]

Just now, placeholder said:

If inflation is your only measure of how well a country is doing economically, then you're making an excellent point. On the other hand, if you care to factor in emploment levels and GDP growth,  then you're definitely not making an excellent point.

Sorry, what I meant to say was: So, claiming the US is doing so much better in regard to inflation, than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes? 

 

And I do not now, nor have I ever stated or meant to imply that inflation is the only measure of how a country is doing economically. But I think I did say that it is one that disproportionally hurts the poor and to a lesser extent the middle class, and I stand by that. 

 

In any event, would you please explain how a middle-class guy whose wages do not keep pace with inflation benefits from an increasing GDP? 

 

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So, claiming the US is doing so much better than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes? 

 

 

It's a stretch. It's also a genuinely good achievement, yes?

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's a stretch. It's also a genuinely good achievement, yes?

Well, it can only be one the other, it can't be a stretch, and a genuinely good achievement.

 

That the greatest economy the world has ever known is only doing about as well as Europe (per your data) is not a great achievement. 

[placeholder]

Just now, Yellowtail said:

Well, it can only be one the other, it can't be a stretch, and a genuinely good achievement.

 

That the greatest economy the world has ever known is only doing about as well as Europe (per your data) is not a great achievement. 

What nonsense are you about now? The USA's economy recovered far faster from Covid than Europe's, and has a much lower unemployment rate.

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Well, it can only be one the other, it can't be a stretch, and a genuinely good achievement.

 

That the greatest economy the world has ever known is only doing about as well as Europe (per your data) is not a great achievement. 

It's also clear that you don't have a firm grasp of basic economics. If you did, you would know that lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures. Despite that, the USA's total inflatio for the post covid period is about the same as the EU's.

[Yellowtail]

Just now, placeholder said:

It's also clear that you don't have a firm grasp of basic economics. If you did, you would know that lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures. Despite that, the USA's total inflatio for the post covid period is about the same as the EU's.

I'm sorry, am I talking down to you? 

 

Had you read my post before yours, you would have seen that I wrote:

"Sorry, what I meant to say was: So, claiming the US is doing so much better in regard to inflation, than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes?"

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's also clear that you don't have a firm grasp of basic economics. If you did, you would know that lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures. Despite that, the USA's total inflatio for the post covid period is about the same as the EU's.

Can you please explain how lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures? 

[candide]

23 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Sorry, what I meant to say was: So, claiming the US is doing so much better in regard to inflation, than the rest of the world is a stretch, yes? 

Trolling again. No one claimed the U.S. is doing so much better than others in regard to inflation.

The point has always been that other countries have experienced similar levels of inflation, but that the U.S. has enjoyed much more growth.

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

Trolling again. No one claimed the U.S. is doing so much better than others in regard to inflation.

The point has always been that other countries have experienced similar levels of inflation, but that the U.S. has enjoyed much more growth.

Right

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Can you please explain how lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures? 

You really don't know this. I'll give you a hint. Inflation is positively proportional to demand. If demand increases, then producers tend to charge more for their products. Higher GDP growth means more demands for good and services to fuel that growth. More demand tends to bring on higher inflation.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

You really don't know this. I'll give you a hint. Inflation is positively proportional to demand. If demand increases, then producers tend to charge more for their products. Higher GDP growth means more demands for good and services to fuel that growth. More demand tends to bring on higher inflation.

Don't give me a hint, explain how lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures. 

 

I understand how supply and demand works. 

 

GDP goes up as a result of inflation, yes? 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Don't give me a hint, explain how lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures. 

 

I understand how supply and demand works. 

 

GDP goes up as a result of inflation, yes? 

I'm not here to write an essay for your benefit. And, no, GDP figures are always adjusted for inflation.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

I'm not here to write an essay for your benefit. And, no, GDP figures are always adjusted for inflation.

You can't explain it, because it's not true. 

No, adjusted GDP is called Real GDP. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

You can't explain it, because it's not true. 

No, adjusted GDP is called Real GDP. 

The nation's gross domestic product totals trillions of dollars. Most often, the number you'll hear people refer to as "GDP" is a percentage. That's the rate of change in real GDP from the previous quarter or year. "Real" or "chained" GDP numbers have been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation over time, so different periods can be compared.

https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-gdp#:~:text="Real" or "chained",during the period being measured.

[Roo Island]

35 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Can you please explain how lower unemployment and a higher GDP rate exert inflationary pressures? 

Good gosh. Still going on about this? Incredible. Like a dog with a bone

[candide]

27 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Right

Using your way of comparing. Did I write that the U.S. was doing "so much better"?

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

The nation's gross domestic product totals trillions of dollars. Most often, the number you'll hear people refer to as "GDP" is a percentage. That's the rate of change in real GDP from the previous quarter or year. "Real" or "chained" GDP numbers have been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation over time, so different periods can be compared.

https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-gdp#:~:text="Real" or "chained",during the period being measured.

So, because, as I said, GDP goes up because of inflation, inflation has to be adjusted, got it.