Putin's Strategic Advances on NATO's Southern Border

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While Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has attracted global condemnation, a less-discussed aspect of Russia's foreign policy is its methodical approach to cultivating client states around NATO's borders to destabilize the region and spread turmoil. This policy is evident in countries such as Syria, Venezuela, Sudan, and Libya, where Russia leverages natural resources like gold and oil to counteract international sanctions, often exacerbating internal conflicts to provoke illegal migration.

 

Currently, Libya represents a critical case that could significantly impact global stability in a way not seen since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. As the world focuses on the tragedies in Ukraine and Gaza, Libya remains under the radar of many governments. This oversight is dangerous, given Libya's pivotal role in contributing to broader instability across Africa, particularly on NATO's southern flank. Libya’s collusion with Russia in economic, military, and diplomatic spheres has had ripple effects on other African nations such as Sudan and Mali, which have suffered considerably from Libya's ongoing turmoil.

 

In recent years, successive governments in Tripoli have grappled with challenges posed by corrupt gangs, rival administrations, warlords, and sporadic warfare. The emergence of General Khalifa Haftar as a dominant force in eastern Libya and his deepening alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to derail Libya’s fragile democracy. Backed by Russian support, Haftar has asserted control over much of eastern and southern Libya, including critical oil fields. Although a fragile ceasefire has held since his failed 2019 attempt to seize Tripoli, tensions remain high. An agreement with Tripoli allowed for the appointment of a consensus candidate to run Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), benefiting ruling factions on both sides. 

 

However, Haftar has firmly established himself as a dominant figure in Libya, thanks to Russian support. Russia has provided Haftar with the necessary resources to reignite hostilities between his Libyan National Army (LNA) and the government in Tripoli. In close coordination with the Kremlin, Haftar has allowed Russian forces, particularly from the notorious Wagner Group, to operate in his territory, using Libya as a launchpad for expansion into sub-Saharan Africa. Reports suggest that trucks carrying Russian fuel, controlled by Haftar’s forces, have passed through his checkpoints, supporting Russian operations in countries like Chad, Mali, and Sudan.

 

It was revealed in April that Russia had transported fighters from Libya to Niger to negotiate with the ruling junta, which also involved severing Niger's ties with Ukraine. This is not an isolated incident. Russia has also exploited Libya to support Sudan’s “Rapid Support Forces” (RSF) amid the ongoing civil war by supplying weapons, ammunition, and fuel across porous borders. The recent brutal massacre of civilians by RSF forces in a central Sudanese village underscores the confidence and impunity with which these paramilitary forces operate.

 

For Western nations, these developments jeopardize years of diplomatic engagement and security cooperation with African countries. As internal conflicts increase and governments are toppled, Russia positions itself as a more appealing ally to these nations, driving a wedge between Africa and the West. 

 

Beyond diplomatic and military threats, Russian influence in the region is increasingly becoming an economic issue. With Libya's lucrative oil fields under Haftar's control, a new threat to European energy supplies has emerged. In recent weeks, Libya's largest oil field, El Sharara, was shut down by LNA soldiers, and several other oil fields in the country are also at risk of imminent shutdown. The United Nations-backed government in Tripoli appears powerless in this situation, and the National Oil Corporation (NOC), headed by Ferhat Bengdara, has failed to effectively respond to these looming shutdowns. The NOC remained silent for days as LNA forces took control of the El Sharara oil field, only declaring force majeure after considerable delay.

 

This has further damaged the reputation of the Tripoli government and raised serious concerns about corruption and clientelism within the NOC. Given that oil and gas constitute 95% of Libya's exports, a functional and transparent NOC is essential for any hope of transitioning to a stable democracy.

 

Recognizing these threats, the newly formed Labour government in the United Kingdom must demonstrate leadership. As part of a proposed reset with the European Union, the Foreign Secretary should lead efforts with France and Italy to form a new global coalition aimed at curbing Russian influence and preventing sanctions evasion across North Africa. Immediate steps should include halting Haftar’s rapid advance in Libya, showing real commitment toward achieving peace in Sudan, and reforming critical yet corrupt institutions. 

 

By disrupting Putin's supply lines, other nations susceptible to Russian influence can be protected, and Russia's broader influence can be contained. If such a coalition is not formed quickly to counter Putin's ambitions along Europe's southern frontier, we may soon face a reality where Russia dominates much of the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

 

Credit: Daily Telegraph 2024-08-30

 

 

 

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[Hakuna Matata]

 

[chiang mai]

Apparently NATO's borders extend to Venezuela...I never knew!

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

Apparently NATO's borders extend to Venezuela...I never knew!

Shhh. Don’t say that. You will upset some posters on here. They don’t accept that NATO expands, only that countries, even if thousands of kms from the North Atlantic applies to join. Even Japan might soon be part of the North Atlantic. 

[Tug]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

Shhh. Don’t say that. You will upset some posters on here. They don’t accept that NATO expands, only that countries, even if thousands of kms from the North Atlantic applies to join. Even Japan might soon be part of the North Atlantic. 

Shhh don’t say that nato is an alliance of free nations banding together to protect themselves from aggression by Any country Anywhere in the world Russia isn’t the only bad actor theres China N Korea Iran ect ect think of NATO as a force multiplier hopefully it will give any bad actors pause if they contemplate attacking any member….

[Gweiloman]

6 minutes ago, Tug said:

Shhh don’t say that nato is an alliance of free nations banding together to protect themselves from aggression by Any country Anywhere in the world Russia isn’t the only bad actor theres China N Korea Iran ect ect think of NATO as a force multiplier hopefully it will give any bad actors pause if they contemplate attacking any member….

Hmm.. let’s see. I reckon the number of countries that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea combined invaded in the last 50 years is less than half of that of America. Am I wrong?

[Tropicalevo]

23 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Hmm.. let’s see. I reckon the number of countries that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea combined invaded in the last 50 years is less than half of that of America. Am I wrong?

Yes, if you include their proxies and economic and  migrant invasions.

The US invasions were a while ago, the dictators' ones are more recent.

Edited August 31 by Tropicalevo

[Gweiloman]

On 8/31/2024 at 10:01 AM, Tropicalevo said:

Yes, if you include their proxies and economic and  migrant invasions.

The US invasions were a while ago, the dictators' ones are more recent.

So by your reasoning (economic invasions), sanctions fall into the same category. 16,000 invasions in the past 3 years on one country alone…