The Strategic Threat of the Houthis Because of Inaction in Yemen

[Social Media]

 

The rise of the Houthi movement in Yemen has transformed what was once a localized militia into a formidable regional threat with global implications. Since 2015, the United States and its allies have struggled to prevent Iran from significantly enhancing the Houthis’ military capabilities. Despite efforts to counteract this threat, the Houthis have emerged as a sophisticated force closely aligned with US adversaries, reflecting a failure in strategic containment.

 

The United States has often sought to “avoid escalation” in response to Houthi provocations. Since October 2023, this approach has been marked by reactive measures that have neither deterred the Houthis nor degraded their military infrastructure. Consequently, the Houthis have gained invaluable insights into US defensive operations, potentially enhancing the efficacy of their attacks and sharing this intelligence with other adversaries. These developments risk undermining US strategic priorities, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, which has already been overshadowed by Middle Eastern operations over the past year.  

 

Iran’s support for the Houthis has been crucial in their evolution as a threat. By smuggling drones and missiles into Yemen—often in pieces and transported via sea and land—Iran has enabled the Houthis to amass an arsenal capable of targeting global shipping and US allies. Efforts by the United States and its partners to intercept these supplies since 2015 have achieved limited success due to vast distances and constrained resources.

 

Smuggling has persisted during Yemen's ongoing conflict, with large dhows, fishing vessels, and uninspected cargo ships bringing in hundreds of truckloads of supplies. Combined with technical assistance from Iran and Hezbollah, these efforts have allowed the Houthis to build advanced missile systems and other weapons of strategic importance.  

 

The Houthis escalated their regional aggression in October 2023, launching drones and missiles toward Israel and formally aligning with Hamas in the ongoing conflict. These actions marked a significant escalation, yet the US response was predominantly defensive, avoiding direct measures to disrupt Houthi capabilities. As a result, the Houthis continued to intensify their attacks on international shipping and US warships, showing no signs of deterrence.

 

By January 2024, after dozens of Houthi assaults, the US initiated strikes into Yemen. While these strikes disrupted some operations and destroyed limited infrastructure, they failed to significantly diminish the Houthis’ capacity or alter their trajectory. Observers have noted that Houthi attacks may have even grown more effective in 2024.

 

A more assertive US response earlier in the conflict could have potentially mitigated the current threat. Targeting critical systems used by the Houthis for surveillance and attack coordination, such as disabling the Iranian spy ship Behshad, might have disrupted their capabilities. Other measures, such as economic sanctions on Houthi-controlled areas or supporting armed resistance groups within Yemen, could have undermined Houthi control in the region. While these actions carry inherent risks, they may have been more effective in curbing Houthi aggression than the restrained strategies employed.  

 

The failure to deter or disrupt Houthi escalations has forced US policymakers to focus on the Red Sea at the expense of priorities in the Western Pacific. This shift contradicts the stated US policy of prioritizing the Indo-Pacific and highlights the strategic costs of inaction. As the Houthis grow in sophistication and capability, the consequences of underestimating their threat have become increasingly clear, necessitating a recalibration of US strategy in the region.

 

Based on a report by ISW 2024-11-25