Trump hugely popular compared to last time

[Harrisfan]

His polling numbers are miles in front of last time. 2028 will be GOP again. His CNN number is a massive 24 point improvement 

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

 

[riclag]

You know his popularity is winning the day when the leftie lunatic's come out 

like this. I expect SkyNews Rita Panahi

will feature this on her next Lefty Losing It show.

 

 

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, riclag said:

You know his popularity is winning the day when the leftie lunatic's come out 

like this. I expect SkyNews Rita Panahi

will feature this on her next Lefty Losing It show.

 

 

Funny. Hard to understand. Average breasts. I bet they don't know where fascism comes from. 

[placeholder]

 

13 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

His polling numbers are miles in front of last time. 2028 will be GOP again. His CNN number is a massive 24 point improvement 

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

 

Here is where Trump's popularity stood on Mar 7, 2017

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating-1st-term

 

Here's the up to date chart:

So, if you subtract 1.4 percent from his starting popularity margin of 8.5% on jan 21, 2025, there has been a decline of 7.1% over 6 weeks. And this is your idea of good news for Trump? The trend line doesn't exactly look promising for him.

 

[theshu25]

The orange grub will no way last the 4 year term. Will get bored of the scam and look for other ways to con the peopel.

[Harrisfan]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

Here is where Trump's popularity stood on Mar 7, 2017

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating-1st-term

 

Here's the up to date chart:

 

So, if you subtract 1.4 percent from his starting popularity margin of 8.5% on jan 21, 2025, there has been a decline of 7.1% over 6 weeks. And this is your idea of good news for Trump? The trend line doesn't exactly look promising for him.

 

Says a lefty with a 33% strike rate. Next.

[Harrisfan]

11 minutes ago, theshu25 said:

The orange grub will no way last the 4 year term. Will get bored of the scam and look for other ways to con the peopel.

At least learn how to spell and post something sensible using facts and figures with a link.

[Harrisfan]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

if you subtract 1.4 percent from his starting popularity margin of 8.5% on jan 21, 2025,

You didn't look at those early polls very close did you? One was +17. If you take the first 7 polls and eliminate the best and the worst the average is +1.

 

That +17 poll distorted the figures.

 

+1 vs +1.4

 

There has been no decline.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Says a lefty with a 33% strike rate. Next.

The usual blather from you. You cite a made up statistic and don't engage with the facts raised.

[TinyTimmy]

Yes,  Trump is so very bigly popular and powerful!

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

You didn't look at those early polls very close did you? One was +17. If you take the first 7 polls and eliminate the best and the worst the average is +1.

 

That +17 poll distorted the figures.

 

+1 vs +1.4

 

There has been no decline.

Not a very high IQ take on the facts of the case.

First off, you chose a period ending Jan 19,  for Trump's first term. Given that today's date is Mar 9, 2025, why did you choose that time period? (Not that you even specified what year that figure is for. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it was for 2017) Today's date is Mar 9, 2025. The last poll taken this year was on Mar 7.

So I compared RCP's polling average of Mar 7 of 2017 to Mar 7 of 2025. And the difference between the respective margins is 6%. Apparently, you believe that 6% difference means Trump is "hugely popular" compared to where he was at this stage during his first term. 

[Harrisfan]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Not a very high IQ take on the facts of the case.

First off, you chose a period ending Jan 19,  for Trump's first term. Given that today's date is Mar 9, 2025, why did you choose that time period? (Not that you even specified what year that figure is for. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it was for 2017) Today's date is Mar 9, 2025. The last poll taken this year was on Mar 7.

So I compared RCP's polling average of Mar 7 of 2017 to Mar 7 of 2025. And the difference between the respective margins is 6%. Apparently, you believe that 6% difference means Trump is "hugely popular" compared to where he was at this stage during his first term. 

You are cherry picking data once again. Are they the same polls? No. Is 2017 relevant to 2025? Most remember covid not 2017.

 

I can see why you get 33% of elections right. Years behind the times in analysis.

 

 

[riclag]

38 minutes ago, theshu25 said:

The orange grub will no way last the 4 year term. Will get bored of the scam and look for other ways to con the peopel.

It took the left 4 years to destroy almost 250 years of the greatest show

on earth. As long as America First can

continue exposing the insanity , its fine by me. What ever the cost!

 

[Harrisfan]

Last 15 polls prior to election - take the 3rd and 4th best polls for Trump you get an average of +1.5. Correct outcome.

 

Last 15 approval polls for Trump - take the 3rd and 4th best polls you get +5

 

So he is actually doing really well.

 

 

[Gottfrid]

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Last 15 polls prior to election - take the 3rd and 4th best polls for Trump you get an average of +1.5. Correct outcome.

 

Last 15 approval polls for Trump - take the 3rd and 4th best polls you get +5

 

So he is actually doing really well.

 

 

We can end it right there. At the moment, it´s all speculation. Give it 6-12 months more, and you will see how wrong you were today.

[Stocky]

1 hour ago, Harrisfan said:

Trump hugely popular compared to last time

 

In Russia.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

You are cherry picking data once again. Are they the same polls? No. Is 2017 relevant to 2025? Most remember covid not 2017.

 

I can see why you get 33% of elections right. Years behind the times in analysis.

 

 

So bizarre. You arbitrarily chose a low point for Trump from more than a year ago  and compared that to this year's polls running to Mar 6. That's called cherry picking. 

What I did was to try and control for variables as much as possible. Which means choosing statistics that have as few variables difference as possible. That's the opposite of of cherry-picking. That's why I choose the RCP average for the same stretch of time in Trump's 2 terms.

And you don't seem to have a clue about the significance of trends. Trump is doing significantly worse already according to the RCP averaging than he was doing just 6 weeks ago.

And once again with the fake statistic. You've got nothing. 

 

[Harrisfan]

2 minutes ago, Stocky said:

In Russia.

In US polls.

[Harrisfan]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So bizarre. You arbitrarily chose a low point for Trump from more than a year ago  and compared that to this year's polls running to Mar 6. That's called cherry picking. 

What I did was to try and control for variables as much as possible. Which means choosing statistics that have as few variables difference as possible. That's the opposite of of cherry-picking. That's why I choose the RCP average for the same stretch of time in Trump's 2 terms.

And you don't seem to have a clue about the significance of trends. Trump is doing significantly worse already according to the RCP averaging than he was doing just 6 weeks ago.

And once again with the fake statistic. You've got nothing. 

 

Back to childish you got nothing comments. You do that everytime you lose.

 

Kamala's best 12th and 13th polls from the last 15 provided the correct result. This means many polls are inaccurate or too lefty.

 

Next.

[Harrisfan]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And you don't seem to have a clue about the significance of trends.

100% strike rate with US elections vs 33% for you.

 

Somebody doesn't have a clue and it's not me.

 

 

[riclag]

22 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Last 15 polls prior to election - take the 3rd and 4th best polls for Trump you get an average of +1.5. Correct outcome.

 

Last 15 approval polls for Trump - take the 3rd and 4th best polls you get +5

 

So he is actually doing really well.

 

 

The Reality is ,the people you’ve been talking to are the people sitting in the bleachers! @Harrisfan, its like blown in the wind trying to convince or make they / them change their opinion.

I’d venture to to say many want, crave ,the USA burning down!

 

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Back to childish you got nothing comments. You do that everytime you lose.

 

Kamala's best 12th and 13th polls from the last 15 provided the correct result. This means many polls are inaccurate or too lefty.

 

Next.

You're the one who offered polls as evidence. If you don't believe in them, why offer them?

[Harrisfan]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Trump is doing significantly worse already according to the RCP averaging than he was doing just 6 weeks ago.

Yes using a +17 poll which is wrong. Rookie error not to analyse the averages. Real beginner stuff. Statistics 101. 19yos learn this. You need an extra 6 polls around +17 for that number to be significant. If you get 7 polls +13 to +21 then that those polls matter. One at +17 is junk data.

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

100% strike rate with US elections vs 33% for you.

 

Somebody doesn't have a clue and it's not me.

 

 

You're confused. It's true that I wanted Hillary in 2016 and Harris in 2024 to win. But I made no predictions. But of course you have the advantage of me.  After all, even when your candidate loses, you claim he won.

[Harrisfan]

2 minutes ago, riclag said:

The Reality is ,the people you’ve been talking to are the people sitting in the bleachers! @Harrisfan, its like blown in the wind trying to convince or make they / them change their opinion.

I’d venture to to say many want, crave

the the USA burning down!

 

 

I don't expect lefties with a 33% strike rate to change their mind. Most people over age 60 never change their minds on anything. 

 

I'm just presenting facts and statistics that 19yos learn in courses. The msm or the left tries to cover up the truth.

 

 

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

I don't expect lefties with a 33% strike rate to change their mind. Most people over age 60 never change their minds on anything. 

 

I'm just presenting facts and statistics that 19yos learn in courses. The msm or the left tries to cover up the truth.

 

 

No respectable educational institute would offer courses that support your methodology. Those 19 year olds must have taken those courses at Trump University.

[riclag]

14 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

I don't expect lefties with a 33% strike rate to change their mind. Most people over age 60 never change their minds on anything. 

 

I'm just presenting facts and statistics that 19yos learn in courses. The msm or the left tries to cover up the truth.

 

 

“Msm or the left tries to cover up the truth”.

They/ them won’t buy that either.

Good luck trying to undo years of

mind numbing by the lefts propaganda 

outlets.

 

 

 

 

[Harrisfan]

14 minutes ago, riclag said:

“Msm or the left tries to cover up the truth”.

They/ them won’t buy that either.

Good luck trying to undo years of

mind numbing by the lefts propaganda 

outlets.

 

 

 

 

You are right. They only follow left wing msm. They never look at the real numbers. The same statistics that worked in 2020 to precision worked in 2024. The same method should work in 2028 to within 0.5%. 

[Gottfrid]

2 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

This means many polls are inaccurate or too lefty.

Soo, what you are posting is that it´s basically only leftists doing polls. Or how should we understand your method this time?

[Harrisfan]

1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

Soo, what you are posting is that it´s basically only leftists doing polls. Or how should we understand your method this time?

No its 70% lefties. Work out your own method.