Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders

[FritsSikkink]

On 4/14/2025 at 9:57 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders

 

Good. Globalism is IMO a vile system that benefits only the rich. Time for it to be consigned to the garbage bin of history.

Return real jobs and decent wages to every country.

Can you afford goods made in China if they are made by USA employers?

[jas007]

52 minutes ago, placeholder said:

This actually contradicts your previous paragraph where you blame inflation for the problem. How does the fed buying bonds prevent a credit freeze? What you're referring to is QE? And QE is not about preventing a credit freeze. A credit freeze happens when the economy is in a state of crisis, like during the onset of the Great Recession or the Great Depression. It's used to lower interest rates in an economy that is functioning below par. And now you're supporting QE?

I can't figure out if you're intentionally being stupid, or not.  

 

You seem to think the system is static, and that there's no interconnection between interest rates, inflation, currency valuations, and so on. It's all related. It's a fluid system. Dynamic. In continual motion. You can't look at any one component without considering the whole. Politics, economics. It's all intertwined, and none of it is a "science."  It's not like you can make an equation that will answer every question.  The word is too complex for that. 

 

As for QE?  Personally, I think it's the opposite of what should happen. On the other hand, I don't have anything to say about any of it. I'm an observer, just trying to appreciate what's going on so I can stay out of the way of the damage as much as possible, and make as much money as possible. 

 

And for what it's worth, I'm not sure you understand the financial markets or the banking system or how the Fed operates.  Not that I'm the expert. Far from it.  But I understand the complexities and the issues involved.  Recognizing the issues is the first step towards putting the pieces together. 

[FritsSikkink]

On 4/11/2025 at 9:15 AM, frank83628 said:

Then people will buy locally produced

For 10 times the price, which would be no problem as they are all so rich, rofl.

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, jas007 said:

You keep repeating the same nonsense, as if that makes it true. If you look, you can find what a congressional committee found when assessing the problem:  The money poured into the system during COVID found its way into the real economy once COVID ended. And in the real economy? Covid-related supply shortages coupled with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus let to inflationary pressures.  Post COVID, the demand was there, but supplies were not in some segments of the economy.  The result: inflation.

 

Remember, pre-COVID, QE type money stayed largely in the banking system, bolstering bank reserves.  But credit was tighter then and consumers were already pretty much tapped out.  Not so, post COVID.  

You made lots of claims, and your responding only to this one? Well, obviously that's because your claim that the dollar was in decline because of inflation was nonsense.

And your claim that QE contributed to post covid inflation is false. Someone could make a case for fiscal stimulus but considering how little fiscal stimulus the EU provided and that their inflation rates were similar, you'd have a tough time proving that point.

And as for your claim that the central banks are still buying bonds...why would they do that with interest rates being where they are. The US prime rate is now 7.5%.

[jas007]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You made lots of claims, and your responding only to this one? Well, obviously that's because your claim that the dollar was in decline because of inflation was nonsense.

And your claim that QE contributed to post covid inflation is false. Someone could make a case for fiscal stimulus but considering how little fiscal stimulus the EU provided and that their inflation rates were similar, you'd have a tough time proving that point.

And as for your claim that the central banks are still buying bonds...why would they do that with interest rates being where they are. The US prime rate is now 7.5%.

I'm not going to waste much time answering you.  All you're doing is trying to aggravate me, and no one could be that stupid.  

 

[placeholder]

12 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I can't figure out if you're intentionally being stupid, or not.  

 

You seem to think the system is static, and that there's no interconnection between interest rates, inflation, currency valuations, and so on. It's all related. It's a fluid system. Dynamic. In continual motion. You can't look at any one component without considering the whole. Politics, economics. It's all intertwined, and none of it is a "science."  It's not like you can make an equation that will answer every question.  The word is too complex for that. 

 

 

Well, if I'm stupid I'm not alone. The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg's, the Financial times all think that this decline is due to the dollar. In fact, I defy you to find some financial reporting that says the sharp drop in the dollar was not due to fear about Trump's tariffs.

 

Trying to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks. This is just argle-barge. It's very clear why the dollar suddently dropped in value. And no attempt by you to obfuscate will change that.

Why Is the Dollar Tumbling?

https://archive.ph/pCrSQ

 

Dollar Falls Sharply on US Tariffs Concerns

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dollar-falls-sharply-us-tariffs-concerns

 

The declines came after the White House on Wednesday revealed sweeping 10 per cent tariffs on nearly all US imports, and levies of 20 per cent on EU goods and 34 per cent on Chinese goods, on top of tariffs already announced.

The dollar fell 1.4 per cent against a basket of trading partners’ currencies in one of its worst days in the past year, as investors fretted about the impact on the US economy.

https://archive.ph/AtRQg#selection-2211.0-2223.1

 

Dollar’s Losing Run Shows Wall Street Angst With Tariff U-Turns

https://archive.ph/AVM3f#selection-1211.0-1211.63

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I'm not going to waste much time answering you.  All you're doing is trying to aggravate me, and no one could be that stupid.  

 

Please, are virtually all the world's major financial analysts trying to aggravate you, too?

[frank83628]

18 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

For 10 times the price, which would be no problem as they are all so rich, rofl.

Depends on the product

[FritsSikkink]

30 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

Depends on the product

Why do you think manufacturing left the USA? Because they couldn't compete with the global market.

The world didn't screw you over, you outpriced yourself. Time to lower wages and become more productive if you want to compete.

If China can't sell their 15% of their goods in the USA anymore, they sell to other markets in no time.

USA not getting their rare earth and they are truly in a mess.

[jas007]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg's, the Financial times all think that this decline is due to the dollar. In fact, I defy you to find some financial reporting that says the sharp drop in the dollar was not due to fear about Trump's tariffs.

I don't think you understood a word I've written.  As I've said numerous times, the US dollar does not exist in a vacuum.  Try to wrap your head around that. 

 

Let's assume the market's knee-jerk reaction to Trump's tariffs caused the dollar to drop.  Fine, I have no problem with that, but you must also address the question of WHY.  Why would the dollar drop?   Unless you ask that question, you might as well not even think about the markets or finance.  You're in over your head.

 

No one factor controls. Everyone except you seems to know that. It's fundamental. So fundamental it goes without saying in financial and banking circles. Nonetheless, it's safe to assume that the dollar drop was a result of capital outflow from the US to other areas of the world, to other assets. Gold, foreign stocks, foreign bonds, foreign real estate, and so on.  And why would that happen?  Fear that Trump's tariffs would cause US inflation to a point of big trouble.  More inflation, more inflation.  Pretty soon the bond market cracks, credit freezes up, and the Fed has no choice but to step in, buy  bonds, and lower rates. More money printing, in other words.  So it's that fear that caused a drop in the dollar as much as anything. And don't forget, the bond market is already in big trouble and Trump has made no secret of the act that he wants lower interest rates.  

 

Also, you have to consider geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The rest of the world is intractably connected to both the system of Western central banks, the US economy, and the word reserve currency, the US dollar.  So, while there may have been a short term knee-jerk reaction that sent the dollar lower, the system will slowly adjust to achieve some sort of equilibrium. Or at least that will be the direction.  Perhaps movement away from US hegemony, but that kind of move doesn't happen overnight. 

 

And never forget, every central bank in the world is now playing the same game, with a fiat currency.  Whether it's the Yen, the Euro, the Pound, or the Chinese Yuan, they all play the same game. Even the Russian Ruble will be affected, as Putin recently admitted.  Borrow and spend.  If you don't do that, it's eventually game over. So it's a "race to the bottom" of the currency markets. Cheaper currencies benefit corporations in the home country, which can give them a competitive advantage. And who doesn't want a competitive advantage?   

 

How does it all play out, long term?  That's the question you should be asking, and the answer to that question is more complex than you seem to think.  Everything is in play at once and everything matters. 

[BLMFem]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

I'm not going to waste much time answering you.  All you're doing is trying to aggravate me, and no one could be that stupid.  

 

That's one way of chickening out of a discussion. Not a very subtle way of saying "OK, you got me" but I guess that's all he could manage.

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

Why do you think manufacturing left the USA? Because they couldn't compete with the global market.

The world didn't screw you over, you outpriced yourself. Time to lower wages and become more productive if you want to compete.

If China can't sell their 15% of their goods in the USA anymore, they sell to other markets in no time.

USA not getting their rare earth and they are truly in a mess.

Its a little more complicated than just  'time to lower wages'. 

[jas007]

13 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

That's one way of chickening out of a discussion. Not a very subtle way of saying "OK, you got me" but I guess that's all he could manage.

I'm not "chickening out" of anything.  The guys either doesn't want to listen, can't comprehend, or is just trying to annoy me.  Maybe all three. 

 

He doesn't understand market dynamics.

 

For example, imagine everyone watched, in slow motion, as a bowling ball was dropped out of a skyscraper window and plunged down 50 stories until it smashed some guy in the head, splattering his brains all over the sidewalk. 

 

Mr. Placeholder wants to argue that "gravity" caused the guy's brain to be splattered all over the sidewalk.  Well, gee.  In my world, that goes without saying.  We don't have to dig up Issac Newton to argue about the law of universal gravitation.  

 

So if I've been less than clear on occasion, it's because I skip over the obvious to address the real issues.  

 

Who threw the bowling ball out the window? Why did he throw the bowling ball out the window? Is he going to throw any more? Will he be caught? When? Will people avoid that sidewalk for at least a while? How will  foot traffic on the other side of the street be affected?   

 

Anyone wanting to understand the complexities the situation should probably consider moving beyond the fact that "gravity" caused the guy's death. 

 

 

[SunnyinBangrak]

2 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Can you afford goods made in China if they are made by USA employers?

Can mankind(personkind for you) survive years more with an addiction to flashy garbage that lasts a few hours or years? We still have a food mixer from the 60s, it weighs a ton and still works as new. Before the days of Chinese junk and built in obsolescence. We don't need flashy junk and were better off without it.

Lkke all unhealthy addictions it will be tough to go without but long term we will be thankful.

[MicroB]

2 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Can you afford goods made in China if they are made by USA employers?

 

 

Some Medtech companies are now laying off people and halting deliveries of medtech, because now they are rendered uneconomic. Things like needles, syringes, blood collection pouches. Of course the companies might try and find a CMO in the homeland, or maybe build a factory, buy in the tooling, to make needles in the US. But a change in manufacture requires the FDA to approve the change. And now the FDA is essentally freezing up because of DOGE.

 

They can't even pass the cost onto the customer (hospitals) because they are tied into multi-year contracts, and so would have to sell as a massive loss.

 

Wait until this starts filtering down to Diabetics who find their $5 glucose monitors are now $100, and their test strips are $2 each, not 50 cents.

[BLMFem]

7 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I'm not "chickening out" of anything.  The guys either doesn't want to listen, can't comprehend, or is just trying to annoy me.  Maybe all three. 

 

He doesn't understand market dynamics.

 

For example, imagine everyone watched, in slow motion, as a bowling ball was dropped out of a skyscraper window and plunged down 50 stories until it smashed some guy in the head, splattering his brains all over the sidewalk. 

 

Mr. Placeholder wants to argue that "gravity" caused the guy's brain to be splattered all over the sidewalk.  Well, gee.  In my world, that goes without saying.  We don't have to dig up Issac Newton to argue about the law of universal gravitation.  

 

So if I've been less than clear on occasion, it's because I skip over the obvious to address the real issues.  

 

Who threw the bowling ball out the window? Why did he throw the bowling ball out the window? Is he going to throw any more? Will he be caught? When? Will people avoid that sidewalk for at least a while? How will  foot traffic on the other side of the street be affected?   

 

Anyone wanting to understand the complexities the situation should probably consider moving beyond the fact that "gravity" caused the guy's death. 

 

 

All that and not even hinting at the possible categorical imperative behind dropping the bowling ball in the first place. Astounding!

[BLMFem]

7 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Can mankind(personkind for you) survive years more with an addiction to flashy garbage that lasts a few hours or years? We still have a food mixer from the 60s, it weighs a ton and still works as new. Before the days of Chinese junk and built in obsolescence. We don't need flashy junk and were better off without it.

Lkke all unhealthy addictions it will be tough to go without but long term we will be thankful.

Ah, another MAGA cultist turned environmentalist. Won't be long now before we see them growing their hair long and flash peace signs.

[MicroB]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

USA not getting their rare earth and they are truly in a mess.

 

The China block on rare earth is global, not just US.

 

The US has 6 choices.

 

1. Extract more rare earths in the US. They are not rare, but their extraction is pretty toxic, This will no doubt include running rough shod over whole communities. There is a cost there, socially, medically and politically.

2. Extract more rare eartch from a region (Ukraine) that is probably the most mined region in the world. Oh, and stop a war involving a nuclear power.

3. Invade Greenland and gamble that first the geologists were correct, that you can get your rare earths out of the frigid Arstic ground in a country with virtualy no industrial infrastructure, because your domestic electronics industry calls it a day, and that the whole move doesn't completely break the Western alliance.

4. Invade Congo, and sort out a brutal civil war that makes ISIS's actions in Iraq and Syria look like a kiddies tea party. Calculate how many US military heads will be seen per night on sticks on the evenung news.

5. Declare war on China.

6. Sit down and talk to China. Probably concede everything.

 

[FritsSikkink]

3 minutes ago, MicroB said:

 

The China block on rare earth is global, not just US.

 

The US has 6 choices.

 

1. Extract more rare earths in the US. They are not rare, but their extraction is pretty toxic, This will no doubt include running rough shod over whole communities. There is a cost there, socially, medically and politically.

2. Extract more rare eartch from a region (Ukraine) that is probably the most mined region in the world. Oh, and stop a war involving a nuclear power.

3. Invade Greenland and gamble that first the geologists were correct, that you can get your rare earths out of the frigid Arstic ground in a country with virtualy no industrial infrastructure, because your domestic electronics industry calls it a day, and that the whole move doesn't completely break the Western alliance.

4. Invade Congo, and sort out a brutal civil war that makes ISIS's actions in Iraq and Syria look like a kiddies tea party. Calculate how many US military heads will be seen per night on sticks on the evenung news.

5. Declare war on China.

6. Sit down and talk to China. Probably concede everything.

 

7. Send someone to the doctor and let someone else take over.

[jas007]

1 hour ago, MicroB said:

 

The China block on rare earth is global, not just US.

 

The US has 6 choices.

 

1. Extract more rare earths in the US. They are not rare, but their extraction is pretty toxic, This will no doubt include running rough shod over whole communities. There is a cost there, socially, medically and politically.

2. Extract more rare eartch from a region (Ukraine) that is probably the most mined region in the world. Oh, and stop a war involving a nuclear power.

3. Invade Greenland and gamble that first the geologists were correct, that you can get your rare earths out of the frigid Arstic ground in a country with virtualy no industrial infrastructure, because your domestic electronics industry calls it a day, and that the whole move doesn't completely break the Western alliance.

4. Invade Congo, and sort out a brutal civil war that makes ISIS's actions in Iraq and Syria look like a kiddies tea party. Calculate how many US military heads will be seen per night on sticks on the evenung news.

5. Declare war on China.

6. Sit down and talk to China. Probably concede everything.

 

Why does the US need rare earths instantly?  Why not just wait for China to fold?  It might not take that long, and the rare earths couldn't be produced instantly, in any event.  The situation in China isn't getting any better, and if they think they can outlast Trump, they should probably think again. 

 

Trump isn't about to admit defeat at this early stage.  His reason for existence at this point is to "Make America Great Again."  He's the President and he has a mandate, despite what the propaganda outlets want the world to think. 

[FritsSikkink]

34 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Why does the US need rare earths instantly?  Why not just wait for China to fold?  It might not take that long, and the rare earths couldn't be produced instantly, in any event.  The situation in China isn't getting any better, and if they think they can outlast Trump, they should probably think again. 

 

Trump isn't about to admit defeat at this early stage.  His reason for existence at this point is to "Make America Great Again."  He's the President and he has a mandate, despite what the propaganda outlets want the world to think. 

Let's see how long that mandates last if the prices in the USA go sky high.

China will not fold and will do business with loads of other countries. The time is over that the USA can bully the rest of the world.