The U.S. economy contracts!

[jas007]

10 minutes ago, ThreeCardMonte said:

The current market tells a different story compared to your unproven graphs/spreadsheets. blah blah blah.

 

Check the news. 
 

DOW currently about 40,700.

The futures are now higher still.  S&P. 500 is at 5645.050, the Dow is 41,009, and NASDAQ 19.948.

 

Meta and Microsoft had good earnings, So I guess that helped.  Also, the USDX is trending higher and oil is dropping.  

 

Anyway, the market is always a leading indicator, so maybe it's clear sailing for Trump, at least for the time being. 

 

I remain fully invested, but for the money I have in a Thai bank. 

[unblocktheplanet]

14 hours ago, placeholder said:

There was a federal spending decline of 5.1% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the last quarter of 2023.

https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/07-july/pdf/0724-government-receipts-expenditures.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

 

Virtually the same as the spending decline in the first quarter of 2025

 

Yet somehow the economy a year ago still managed to grow.

 

I thought Musk cancelled BEA...

[jas007]

34 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I've noticed this repeatedly this falsity cropping up in your economic arguments. Because most people don't need something now that means that they can do without it until such time as it's available. And maybe it was just one item there might be some truth to that. But when it's a myriad of items, that doesn't work anymore. If a company needs a machine tool now, it needs it now. It can't put off purchases until sometime later. This applies to all sorts of things. And the accumulative effect of not buying many things at a certain time means there is going to be damage to the economy. And of course many of the things that you can buy will cost more. More damage.

As for your claim that the trade war is going to be settled soon, thank you traveler from the future. That's so reassuring. 

You're welcome.  Just watch and wait. Time travel is possible, by the way.  Not that I've been there, but I can think for myself and I can read. 

[unblocktheplanet]

4 minutes ago, jas007 said:

The futures are now higher still.  S&P. 500 is at 5645.050, the Dow is 41,009, and NASDAQ 19.948.

 

Meta and Microsoft had good earnings, So I guess that helped.  Also, the USDX is trending higher and oil is dropping.  

 

Anyway, the market is always a leading indicator, so maybe it's clear sailing for Trump, at least for the time being. 

 

I remain fully invested, but for the money I have in a Thai bank. 

 

4 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I remain fully invested, but for the money I have in a Thai bank. 

Still a little nerve-wracking, eh. There seems to be nowhere else solid to invest save USD.

[jas007]

5 minutes ago, unblocktheplanet said:

 

Still a little nerve-wracking, eh. There seems to be nowhere else solid to invest save USD.

Currently, I'm not using any kind of margin, so I don't have much to worry about in terms of short term fluctuations.  Nerve-wracking?  I really don't worry, at this point.  I guess WWIII could upset my plans, but if that happens, it won't matter anyway.

 

Unless the USD loses 90% of its value against the Thai baht, I can do without any of my investment money, so I'm thinking I'm OK there.  

 

The bottom line for me:  it's not very likely that I lose money in the market, long term.  I might make some adjustments along the way, but just as to the proper mix of stocks. 

 

And yes, I could be wrong about everything. 

 

 

[Dan O]

15 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Recessions are normal. You can't reduce spending and not have one. How long before lefties learn the basics about economics.

It wasn't just a result of reduced spending. As for the reduced spending , that didn't happen in a vacuum did it? There was a major contributor to cause reduced spending. Perhaps your google degree in economics has lapsed

[Walker88]

15 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Recessions are normal. You can't reduce spending and not have one. How long before lefties learn the basics about economics.

I think the economic knowledge of those "lefties" dwarfs your Dunning-Kreuger economic knowledge.

 

Why, it only took a few minutes for one of those "lefties" to point out your error, noting Q1 2024, a year before the clownshow.

[Dan O]

15 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Recessions are normal. You can't reduce spending and not have one. How long before lefties learn the basics about economics.

 

15 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Who cares

Thats the sound a defeated trumpette makes when they have no other defense against facts and truth

[Walker88]

14 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Inflation goes down when people spend less. You obviously failed economics at school.

Oh my!

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess your economics "knowledge" comes from POTUS' eponymous and failed "university". No other way to explain how you could be both so cocksure and so wrong.

 

Here's some homework for you....look up "stagflation".

 

Or go take a look at Mugabe's Zimbabwe as its currency crashed and import prices soared. People stopped spending, but inflation was a bazillion percent.

[Dan O]

5 hours ago, jas007 said:

First of all, before Trump took over, the Biden Administration was issuing phony statistics on just about everything.  They wanted everyone to think everything was "fine."  That's why the phony numbers mow need revision, after the fact.  The lies are being corrected. If you don't know that, you should. 

Can you show us where you got your information about phony numbers. A link would be helpful.

[TheAppletons]

16 minutes ago, Dan O said:

Can you show us where you got your information about phony numbers. A link would be helpful.

 

  Undoubtedly from the comments section of a YouTube video or the comment section of a Focks News "journalism" piece about Paige Spirinac.

[Walker88]

Four years and 5000 posts is enough.

 

It's been entertaining, but that has run its course.

 

I've long been fascinated by the behavior of cults, and this Forum has given me insight into the addled brain mindset that is the basis for becoming a cult member. It's like religion....many folks need to believe somebody is in charge, because if left to each individual, many inherently know they lack what it takes to succeed. Others need someone to blame for their own mediocrity or failure. Still others hope their messiah can quash the people of whom cultists are jealous.

 

In what I think is an AI-generated post, Lee65 listed many personality traits that characterize the cult member. It was interesting, and in full view every day in this Forum.

 

I have long wondered why 900+ people literally "drank the Kool-aid", at Georgetown under the cult of Jim Jones. Georgetown is the genesis of that phrase "drinking the Kool-aid", which has come to mean blind and moronic devotion to a cult leader. After four years on this Forum, I no longer wonder.

 

As I depart, all the things non-MAGAs said would happen are happening. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, as the idiotic policies of the current POTUS haven't even begun to be felt yet. Inflation will soar, shelves will be empty, services even MAGAs thought were a birthright will disappear. People will die who did not need to die. The Constitution will be ignored and abused. POTUS will continue to grift off his goobers, as he and wifey #3 are doing with their silly meme coins and social media site.

 

For the time being POTUS will find anyone and everyone, save for himself, to blame, just as he did yesterday claiming the GDP fall is Biden's fault. POTUS is particularly weak that way. When all else fails, he will likely start a war, thinking it might galvanize the nation behind him. It won't. He'll just look desperate, and his gaggle of misfits in his Administration will eff things up in ways even The Onion cannot imagine. I fear an invasion of Iran, a blocked Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil and gas prices, and a US carrier or two at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, owing to Chinese technology supplied to Iran. And then schadenfreude breaking out in former US allies.

 

I'd prefer not to see the destruction of the nation I served, but maybe a serious and painful decline will crush the absurdity of MAGA once and for all, and it can be tossed into the dustbin of history along with McCarthyism or bloodletting. If the most vocal Democrats move to the liberal center, the turf once occupied by Bill Clinton, then 2026 will see Dems return as majorities in both the House and Senate, able to put reins on the disaster that is POTUS, and then Dems can retake the White House in 2028.

 

In any event, it's been fun. Enjoy.

[SunnyinBangrak]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

In any event, it's been fun. Enjoy

5,000 word tantrums are never fun, bud.

[BLMFem]

18 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

5,000 word tantrums are never fun, bud.

Don't use big words if you don't know their precise meaning, Sunny. That wasn't even close to being a tantrum. If you wanna know what a tantrum looks like, head to Clown Social just about any night of the week and watch the tantrums thrown by the world's oldest baby.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

 

First, anyone in the US will tell you that government CPI numbers are BS. All a person has to do is go shopping once in a while. So it's not as if the government isn't capable of distorting reality. They have a lot of experience doing just that. Will that practice continue under Trump? Probably. It makes his life easier, I'm sure, not having to pay retirees fairly. The system is already bankrupt and they're trying to save it, if possible. 

 

As for other government statistics?  Unless I was hallucinating, I do think I've heard news stories about recent revisions to government data oriiginally released during the Biden administration. To be sure, that kind of thing can occasionally be required, but in these cases, it was characterized as more of a systemic thing based on a past pattern or practice where the Biden administration wished to portray things in a good light. 

 

As for Trump's understanding of the trade balance in the context of the World Reserve Currency?  You keep bringing that up as if repeating the same nonsense over and over somehow makes it true.  It's common knowledge how it all works and is now part and parcel of economic theory.  No "proof" is necessary.  It's called the Triffin Dilemma. Trump knows, his advisors know, everyone knows. There are even formulas and frameworks published for understanding the dilemma and why it's considered part and parcel of having the world reserve currency. 

 

If I may use some AI to assist here (emphasis mine). Or,  if this gets deleted, go to Grok or Perplexity and ask it to explain why the Triffin dilemma is part and parcel of having the world reserve currency. 

 

The Triffin Dilemma, identified by economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, highlights a fundamental conflict for a country whose currency serves as the global reserve currency. This conflict arises between domestic economic stability and international obligations to provide liquidity. Below, I’ll explain the dilemma, outline proposed "formulas" (solutions or strategies) to address it, and clarify why it’s an inherent issue for the world reserve currency issuer. Note that the term "formulas" in this context refers to proposed solutions or frameworks, as there are no literal mathematical equations for resolving the dilemma.

--

The Triffin Dilemma emerges when a national currency, like the U.S. dollar, is the global reserve currency, meaning it’s widely held by foreign governments and central banks for international trade, debt settlement, and reserves. To meet global demand for this currency, the issuing country must supply enough of it, typically by running trade or balance of payments deficits (spending more abroad than it earns). However, persistent deficits can erode confidence in the currency’s value, leading to economic instability both domestically and globally. This creates a paradox:

 

1. **International Obligation**: The reserve currency country must provide sufficient liquidity (its currency) to support global trade and economic growth. This often requires running trade deficits, as dollars flow abroad through imports or investments.

 

2. **Domestic Stability**: Persistent deficits increase the country’s debt and can weaken the currency’s value, causing inflation or loss of confidence, which conflicts with domestic goals like price stability and economic competitiveness.

 

The dilemma was particularly evident under the Bretton Woods system (1944–1971), where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. The U.S. had to supply dollars to meet global demand, but this led to a "dollar glut" that strained its gold reserves, culminating in the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the U.S. suspended dollar-to-gold convertibility. Even today, in a fiat currency system, the dilemma persists as the U.S. runs chronic trade deficits to supply dollars, raising concerns about debt sustainability.[]

 

### Why the Triffin Dilemma is Part and Parcel of Having the World Reserve Currency

 

The Triffin Dilemma is inherent to the role of a global reserve currency because of the dual role the currency plays:

 

1. **Global Public Good**: A reserve currency acts as an international public good, facilitating trade, investment, and reserve accumulation worldwide. The issuing country must supply enough currency to meet this demand, which often exceeds domestic needs. This supply typically comes through trade deficits, as the country imports more than it exports, sending currency abroad.

 

2. **Domestic Constraints**: Running persistent deficits to supply the world with currency can undermine the issuing country’s economic health. It may lead to:
   - **Debt Accumulation**: Chronic deficits increase external debt, as seen with the U.S., where foreign-held federal debt exceeds $7.6 trillion as of Q3 2023

   - **Loss of Confidence**: If deficits grow too large, foreign holders may doubt the currency’s stability, potentially triggering a currency crisis

 

3. **No Escape from the Trade-Off**: The issuing country cannot simultaneously maintain a strong currency (for domestic stability) and provide unlimited liquidity (for global needs) without risking imbalances. If it reduces deficits to stabilize its economy, global liquidity shrinks, potentially slowing world trade and growth. If it continues deficits, it risks devaluing its currency and losing reserve status.

 

This tension was historically evident in the Bretton Woods collapse and remains relevant today, as the U.S. dollar’s dominance (about 60% of global currency reserves) requires ongoing deficits, contributing to a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to hit 150% by 2040. The dilemma is "part and parcel" because any country issuing the global reserve currency faces this conflict, regardless of the monetary system

---

 

Conclusion:

 

The Triffin Dilemma is an inherent challenge for any country issuing the global reserve currency, as it must balance domestic stability against the international need for liquidity. This conflict, rooted in the need to run deficits to supply currency, risks debt accumulation, inflation, and loss of confidence. Proposed solutions—global currency, multi-currency system, gold standard, digital currency, or enhanced coordination—offer ways to mitigate the dilemma but come with significant challenges. The U.S. dollar’s continued dominance underscores the dilemma’s relevance, but its persistence suggests a need for systemic reform to ensure long-term global economic stability.

 

As anyone will tell you? 

As you clearly don't recall, a while back a private company emerged called the billion prices project. It's goal was to use the internet to track prices to better gauge inflation. It turns out that it's numbers matched extremely closely with what the BLS was offering. So I don't care what anyone tells me, there's hard evidence that what you're saying is another falsehood in fact by any other appeal to authority than some allehed anyone.

[jas007]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As anyone will tell you? 

As you clearly don't recall, a while back a private company emerged called the billion prices project. It's goal was to use the internet to track prices to better gauge inflation. It turns out that it's numbers matched extremely closely with what the BLS was offering. So I don't care what anyone tells me, there's hard evidence that what you're saying is another falsehood in fact by any other appeal to authority than some allehed anyone.

It's called the CPI for a reason.  And the C stands for "consumer."  And in the US economy, consumers don't shop for a billion items. They shop for food, housing, gasoline, and they pay their monthly bills, including bills for various types of insurance and for energy.  They don't have much choice.  It's that, or a tent on the sidewalk somewhere. 

 

Prices in the grocery stores are not increasing by a rate of only 3.1%.  Try adding 20 points to that number and you'd be in the right ballpark. 

 

As for housing?  LOL Did you know that the CPI does not include actual housing costs?  Instead, the BLS uses  a figure called "Owner Equivalent Rent" which is derived, in part, by asking owners what they think it would cost to rent their property.  And typically, owners underestimate the cost, so the results aren't too accurate. 

 

Anyway you slice it, it's a scam to exclude real long term housing costs.  But it sure does help hide the reality faced by consumers on a day-to-day basis.  Look here, don't look there. Nothing to see here. Move along.  That's the game they play.  "Look, we shopped for a billion items, and we conclude inflation is under control." Something like that, right? 

 

And let's not forget health insurance and property insurance, both of which are through the roof at present and show no signs of slowing down.  Different reasons for increases in each, but a big part of every consumer's budget, for sure.  Except for the people who are uninsured and just don't care. Maybe they're the real winners?   

 

Lots of people are just partying on, as if they don't have a care in the world.  Credit card balances increase every month, and people are buying groceries on a "buy now pay later" plan.   Even for food they have delivered, they can do that.  Want a pizza delivered? No problem. Just four easy payments. No problem if you pay on time, but if you don't check the interest rate. 

 

So, pretend, if you want, that the government isn't, at a minimum, distorting the truth. Just don't tell Joe Six Pack everything is fine.

 

 

[simple1]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Four years and 5000 posts is enough.

 

It's been entertaining, but that has run its course.

 

I've long been fascinated by the behavior of cults, and this Forum has given me insight into the addled brain mindset that is the basis for becoming a cult member. It's like religion....many folks need to believe somebody is in charge, because if left to each individual, many inherently know they lack what it takes to succeed. Others need someone to blame for their own mediocrity or failure. Still others hope their messiah can quash the people of whom cultists are jealous.

 

In what I think is an AI-generated post, Lee65 listed many personality traits that characterize the cult member. It was interesting, and in full view every day in this Forum.

 

I have long wondered why 900+ people literally "drank the Kool-aid", at Georgetown under the cult of Jim Jones. Georgetown is the genesis of that phrase "drinking the Kool-aid", which has come to mean blind and moronic devotion to a cult leader. After four years on this Forum, I no longer wonder.

 

As I depart, all the things non-MAGAs said would happen are happening. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, as the idiotic policies of the current POTUS haven't even begun to be felt yet. Inflation will soar, shelves will be empty, services even MAGAs thought were a birthright will disappear. People will die who did not need to die. The Constitution will be ignored and abused. POTUS will continue to grift off his goobers, as he and wifey #3 are doing with their silly meme coins and social media site.

 

For the time being POTUS will find anyone and everyone, save for himself, to blame, just as he did yesterday claiming the GDP fall is Biden's fault. POTUS is particularly weak that way. When all else fails, he will likely start a war, thinking it might galvanize the nation behind him. It won't. He'll just look desperate, and his gaggle of misfits in his Administration will eff things up in ways even The Onion cannot imagine. I fear an invasion of Iran, a blocked Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil and gas prices, and a US carrier or two at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, owing to Chinese technology supplied to Iran. And then schadenfreude breaking out in former US allies.

 

I'd prefer not to see the destruction of the nation I served, but maybe a serious and painful decline will crush the absurdity of MAGA once and for all, and it can be tossed into the dustbin of history along with McCarthyism or bloodletting. If the most vocal Democrats move to the liberal center, the turf once occupied by Bill Clinton, then 2026 will see Dems return as majorities in both the House and Senate, able to put reins on the disaster that is POTUS, and then Dems can retake the White House in 2028.

 

In any event, it's been fun. Enjoy.

 

Will miss your contribution, one of the few voices making sense on this forum.

[Jim Blue]

18 hours ago, jas007 said:

The figures are real, no doubt.  What's surprising to me is that people didn't already know the economy was in trouble. Take a look at the US stock market right now. You'd think they just announced the end of the world.  

 

Whatever.  Anyone who didn't know the economy is in trouble deserves to lose all their money.  

So when exactly did you pull out jas if its not too personal a question ?

[jas007]

55 minutes ago, Jim Blue said:

So when exactly did you pull out jas if its not too personal a question ?

I didn't "pull out" of anything.  I take every penny I can get my hands on and double down.  I just bought more stocks a few days ago.  Whatever nonsense is going on in the market is only temporary. 

 

Otherwise, I just paid some bills and transferred some money to Thailand, leaving me with a grand total of cash in the US bank account of about $50.  I don't need any more than that there, and I certainly am doing OK here in Thailand.  I think I also have some small amount in a few other banks accounts there, but nothing much that matters. 

 

And in the middle of the month, I'll get a Social Security payment.  I'll use that to pay off a credit card that I've used in the meantime to buy junk here. Groceries and so on, along with payment for a few streaming services.  No interest due, so long as I do that.   Any remaining money - into more stocks.