Behind the Veil: As China’s Economy Falters, Key Data Vanishes from Public View

[Social Media]

 

Behind the Veil: As China’s Economy Falters, Key Data Vanishes from Public View

 

China’s economy is facing increasing scrutiny, not just for its sluggish performance but for how little is now known about it. In a sharp departure from the past, Beijing has stopped publishing hundreds of key statistics that were once crucial to understanding the health of the world’s second-largest economy. From land sales and foreign investment to unemployment and even soy sauce production, swaths of data once available to researchers, economists, and investors have simply disappeared.

 

 

“This is not just about numbers—it’s about narrative control,” said one analyst familiar with China’s data practices. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, the missing statistics now number in the hundreds, and most of them have vanished without explanation. The absence coincides with growing signs of distress in China’s economy: spiraling debt, a real estate sector in decline, and rising joblessness.

 

 

Even the National Bureau of Statistics has grown more opaque. When an anonymous user on its website questioned the disappearance of certain urban unemployment figures, the bureau responded only that the ministry responsible for the data had ceased sharing it. The timing of this blackout is critical. As the U.S.-China trade war bites deeper into China’s export-dependent industries and global economic growth wavers, transparent economic data has become more essential—and more elusive.

 

 

China’s GDP growth figures have long been met with skepticism. In 2023, the government reported 5.2% growth and in 2024, exactly 5%, matching its official target. But analysts have raised serious doubts. Many believe the real number could be 2 to 3 percentage points lower. “It would have been more credible if authorities had released something lower,” one economist told the Journal, pointing out that other indicators like retail sales and construction painted a gloomier picture.

 

 

Some institutions have begun turning to indirect measurements to paint a clearer picture. Economists use satellite imagery to track nighttime lights, monitor electricity use at cement factories, and even analyze Baidu’s mapping data to estimate business activity. One researcher resorted to tallying news stories about gym and beauty salon owners vanishing with prepaid customer money as a proxy for economic distress.

 

Concerns about the reliability of official data are nothing new. In 2007, former Premier Li Keqiang privately told the U.S. ambassador that provincial GDP figures were “man-made” and unreliable, preferring to track electricity consumption, rail freight, and bank loans. “Official GDP figures were ‘for reference only,’” he said, according to a leaked diplomatic cable.

 

The disconnect between official figures and reality has never been more stark. In 2024, Goldman Sachs used import data as a proxy for domestic consumption and estimated actual growth at 3.7%. Rhodium Group, a U.S.-based research firm, put it even lower—at just 2.4%. Gao Shanwen, a prominent economist at the state-run SDIC Securities, publicly estimated that growth “might be around 2%” in recent years. He was swiftly disciplined and banned from speaking publicly. The Securities Association of China later reminded brokerages to ensure their analysts “play a positive role” in supporting investor confidence.

 

Efforts to shape perception have become more forceful. In August 2023, as youth unemployment soared and viral posts showed jobless graduates sprawled on sidewalks in silent protest, the government abruptly halted the publication of the youth jobless rate after it hit a record 21.3%. Economist Zhang Dandan had estimated the real figure might be 46.5%. When a new series was introduced five months later, it showed just 14.9%—excluding nearly 62 million full-time students. Economists were baffled, noting that international standards typically count students seeking work as unemployed.

 

Perhaps most telling was the reaction to an investor exodus in early 2024. As the economy faltered and $2 billion in foreign capital fled Chinese equities, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges stopped releasing real-time data on foreign inflows and outflows. They claimed the move aligned with “international practices,” even as the CSI 300 index slid for four straight months.

 

For a country facing mounting internal and external pressures, maintaining an image of stability has become paramount. But in doing so, China has obscured the economic picture precisely when the world—and its own citizens—need clarity most.

 

  Adpated by ASEAN Now from Wall Street Journal  2025-05-06

 

 

[Cryingdick]

Big trouble in little China. Potentially their companies will be delisted from American exchanges as they can't meet the standards for reporting.

[JonnyF]

They don't want the world to see what Trump's tariffs will do to their economy.

 

Understandable.