Economy Thailand's 2025 Struggles: Growth Forecast Slashed Amid US Tariffs

[webfact]

Donald Trump official portrait 2025. Courtesy of Wikipedia

 

Thailand's economic outlook for 2025 just took a hit, with the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) adjusting growth predictions downward. This comes in response to looming fears over trade tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump.

 

The NESDC now anticipates a growth rate of just 1.3 to 2.3 percent, a notable drop from the earlier forecast of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

 

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary general of the NESDC, pointed out that the Thai economy managed a 3.1 percent growth from January to March compared to the previous year.

 

However, concerns about US tariffs and a dip in expected tourist inflow in 2025 have forced the agency to lower its expectations. "The (trade) talks have not yet been finalised, and there are several countries waiting in line to negotiate," Danucha explained during a recent news briefing.

 

Thailand is staring down a potential 36 percent levy due to global "reciprocal" tariffs proposed by Washington. This giant tariff could come into force unless renegotiations occur and a reduction is secured by July.

 

Consequently, the Thai economic forecast is clouded by uncertainty, with private investors exhibiting caution until the trade situation clarifies. This climate of hesitancy is expected to continue affecting the market in the second quarter, keeping economic momentum sluggish.

 

As Thailand braces for the economic ramifications of unstable tariff conditions and reduced tourism, the government and businesses are keenly watching developments.

 

Any changes in the US's trade strategies could have a substantial impact on Thailand’s economic landscape. With the trade negotiation outcomes still hanging in the balance, the country's financial trajectory remains uncertain.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Thai PBS World 2025-05-20

 

 

 

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

This comes in response to looming fears over trade tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump.

Thailand wants FTA's with many countries, including the USA now it has to play fair.

[johnc925]

Yuh, and how much does Thailand tax US imports right now? 

 

It's currently  been at 72% average; the US currently charges 10% from Thailand... for all you Trump haters.   

[Seagull Sam]

Trump is a bully and has zero knowledge of economics. Destroying the economies of countries supplying cheap labour to greedy US consumers damages both parties. 

[newbee2022]

Wait until tomorrow. Maybe Donnie forgot what he said yesterday.

Old age dementia 😂

[johnc925]

37 minutes ago, Seagull Sam said:

Trump is a bully and has zero knowledge of economics. Destroying the economies of countries supplying cheap labour to greedy US consumers damages both parties. 

Ahhh... it was just a matter of time... Yeah, I'm gonna have to callout BS on your T-D-S derived statement... economic indicators suggest quite a different perspective.

[LivingNThailand]

2 hours ago, johnc925 said:

Yuh, and how much does Thailand tax US imports right now? 

 

It's currently  been at 72% average; the US currently charges 10% from Thailand... for all you Trump haters.  

The duty for products coming from the US is a lot more than products from UK, Australia and New Zealand.  I don't know the exact percentage amount, but if you compare similar Western items in a store like Villa Market, you can see the dramatic price difference.  For example, a similar bottle of white wine might be 400 THB for an Australian wine and 700 THB for a US wine.  Cheese, canned items, frozen items, is the same large difference.   I used to import from Thailand, and the duty incoming from Thailand was 5% to17% on average, depending on product type.  I don't know why Thailand doesn't lower the duty on US products so they can import more into Thailand to correct some of the imbalance.   Seems simple to me. 

[hotsun]

The 72% that thailand has on the US doesnt matter at all to them. The 10% the US put on thailand is devastating, and i dont think thailands government even realizes it

[WHansen]

It has become fashionable to blame everything on US tariffs, a way many countries can try to hide their governments inept management, wastage and greed.

Many economies, including Thailands were in dire straights long before the new tariffs were mentioned.

[ikke1959]

Easy to blame someone instead of blaming yourself for the greed and corruption and manipulations.....That doesn't mean that I agree with Trump he is just a lunatic...