Photo courtesy of The Nation

 

Thailand's trade negotiations with the United States are quickly approaching the August 1 deadline, with hopes pinned on reaching a tariff agreement in line with regional allies. As neighbouring ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have settled for tariffs around 19-20%, Thailand anticipates a similar outcome.

 

Last week, Thailand submitted its final tariff proposal, ushering in the final stretch of discussions with the US. After some minor amendments, the tariff draft has been returned to American officials, marking the final stage before an announcement by President Donald Trump.

 

Commerce Minister Jatuporn Buruspat is optimistic, dismissing border tensions with Cambodia as unrelated to these negotiations. "The talks focus solely on trade, not sovereignty. We expect a resolution aligned with other ASEAN countries," he affirmed.

 

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, shared a cautious optimism, citing Thailand's adherence to trade terms as mitigating potential setbacks. "A tariff around 19-20% would be reasonable given regional standards," he noted, highlighting the significance of US-China stabilisation efforts amidst Thai-Cambodian border tensions.

 

The private sector is vigilant, understanding the importance of negotiations in shaping economic prospects. A favourable tariff below 15% could bolster exports significantly, whereas an unfavourable rate as high as 36% might lead to economic strain, with losses potentially reaching 800-900 billion Thai Baht.

 

Supavud Saicheua, Chair of the National Economic and Social Development Council, expressed scepticism about potential outcomes. Cautioning against high US import tariffs—currently up to 40% on some goods—he noted the challenges facing a heavily export-reliant Thailand.

 

Reflecting economic realities, Pornchai Thiraveja from the Fiscal Policy Office revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast to 2.2% for 2025, in line with the International Monetary Fund’s revised outlook.

 

In anticipation of tariff impacts, the Ministry of Finance is taking proactive measures. A 157 billion baht stimulus plan and financial packages aim to aid the export sector, ensuring liquidity and reducing burdens for small and medium enterprises.

 

The clock is ticking for Thailand and the United States to finalise their agreement, a decision bearing significant implications for the economy. As the deadline approaches, all eyes are on Washington to deliver a resolution that aligns with Thailand’s trade interests and regional expectations.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-07-31

 

 

I don't see how the US can allow Thailand anywhere near the tariff given to Vietnam and the Philippines, especially because of transshipments. Anything less than 30 percent means Trump did a TACO.

give them 40%