2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Assuming a british expat retired to Thailand on a state pension that was frozen at the day before the brexit refrendum and taking the pound/baht rate fall as a driver how much have that pensioner lost to date in baht. But hey stick a flag in your profile !

 

 

To make a rough estimate, we need to pick some reasonable assumptions. Here’s a worked‐through approach (with caveats):

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Key assumptions & data points

1. The pension was “frozen” at the pre-Brexit referendum (say mid-2016) level, i.e. it did not increase in later years, while a UK resident’s state pension would have risen by inflation / “triple lock” etc.

   • (In fact, many UK expats in countries without reciprocity don’t get uprating of their state pension. (GOV.UK))

2. The main loss we’re after is from the fall in the pound relative to the baht over that period (since the pension is paid in pounds, but the recipient in Thailand “loses” by converting to baht).

3. We assume the pension amount in GBP has remained constant in real terms (for the expat) since 2016, for simplicity.

4. Use the GBP → THB exchange rate in mid-2016 (just before the referendum) as baseline, and compare to a recent rate. Then compute the “loss” in baht for a given pension level.

5. We’ll do the calculation for a representative pension (say £10,000 per year) or you can scale accordingly.

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Exchange rate data

• On 10 June 2016, 1 GBP = 50.2422 THB (a representative mid-2016 rate) (Currency Converter)

• More generally, 2016 had average ~ 47.826 THB per GBP (Exchange Rates UK)

• More recently, GBP to THB is around ≈ 42.96 THB per GBP (mid-market) (Wise)

Let’s take as “now” 1 GBP = 43 THB (a round figure close to current) and as “then” 1 GBP = 50.24 THB.

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Calculation

If the pension is £10,000 annually (frozen in GBP):

• In 2016, that would convert to:
  10,000 × 50.2422 = 502,422 THB

• Now, converting the same £10,000 gives:
  10,000 × 43 = 430,000 THB

• The “loss” in baht = 502,422 − 430,000 = 72,422 THB

That means the pensioner is getting ~ 72,422 THB less per year than they would if the pound had stayed at its 2016 value vs. the baht.

As a percentage, that’s about 14.4 % loss in baht value (72,422 ÷ 502,422).

If their pension is higher or lower, multiply accordingly. For example:

• For £5,000 pension: loss ~ 36,211 THB/year

• For £20,000 pension: loss ~ 144,844 THB/year

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Caveats and refinements

• The actual 2016 “pre-referendum” date and rate might differ (we picked 10 June 2016).

• The pound-baht rate has fluctuated; using different reference dates changes the result.

• This ignores inflation, purchasing power changes in Thailand, and what a UK pensioner in the UK would have received in GBP increases over time.

• If you wanted the cumulative loss over many years, you'd need to sum year by year, applying annual exchange rates, which would increase the estimate.

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If you like, I can run a more precise calculation (year-by-year) for a specific pension amount you pick, to estimate the total loss in baht since 2016. Do you want me to do that for, say, £12,000/year (or whatever your number is)?

 

Precise calculations my arm. You (who is  we?) conflate three separate factors.

 

Your "refinements" only show the (most significant) general strengthening of the THB against most major currencies in recent years.

 

The unfair UK policy of cutting triple lock increases for many pensioners retiring away from the UK means that they are bound to lose out.

 

The GBP/EUR is pretty much back to the average rate from the 2008  GFC, to now. 

 

But hey stick a flag in your own profile, cherry-picker !

 

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

Precise calculations my arm. You (who is  we?) conflate three separate factors.

 

Your "refinements" only show the (most significant) general strengthening of the THB against most major currencies in recent years.

 

The unfair UK policy of cutting triple lock increases for many pensioners retiring away from the UK means that they are bound to lose out.

 

The GBP/EUR is pretty much back to the average rate from the 2008  GFC, to now. 

 

But hey stick a flag in your own profile, cherry-picker !

 

 

What matters is that Brexit created a recognised and glaring cliff-edge in 2016, from which it has never recovered. It’s painful to confront the folly of that decision especially when you pay the price every single day. And as I said, I can’t fix stupid if you want to double down and believe that Farage (or anyone else) can “fix” the problems he helped create, then go ahead.

Here’s a concrete example of how markets punished the UK immediately after the referendum:

On 23 June 2016 (the day of the vote), the pound traded at about £1 = ฿52.65 against the Thai baht.

On 24 June 2016 (the day the result was announced), it collapsed to £1 = ฿48.20.

By 25 June 2016, it was still hovering at £1 = ฿48.24.

That was an overnight fall of around 8.4% against the baht.

And it wasn’t just Thailand sterling also crashed against major global currencies. Versus the US dollar, it dropped about 7% in a single day, one of the sharpest falls in modern history. The depreciation wasn’t a blip either: it became the “new normal,” locking in a weaker pound and higher import costs for years to come.

This is the reality: the cliff edge wasn’t an abstract metaphor it was visible on currency screens across the world the morning after the vote.

 

 

There are always good people. That gives me hope.

 

 

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

What matters is that Brexit created a recognised and glaring cliff-edge in 2016, from which it has never recovered. It’s painful to confront the folly of that decision especially when you pay the price every single day. And as I said, I can’t fix stupid if you want to double down and believe that Farage (or anyone else) can “fix” the problems he helped create, then go ahead.

Here’s a concrete example of how markets punished the UK immediately after the referendum:

On 23 June 2016 (the day of the vote), the pound traded at about £1 = ฿52.65 against the Thai baht.

On 24 June 2016 (the day the result was announced), it collapsed to £1 = ฿48.20.

By 25 June 2016, it was still hovering at £1 = ฿48.24.

That was an overnight fall of around 8.4% against the baht.

And it wasn’t just Thailand sterling also crashed against major global currencies. Versus the US dollar, it dropped about 7% in a single day, one of the sharpest falls in modern history. The depreciation wasn’t a blip either: it became the “new normal,” locking in a weaker pound and higher import costs for years to come.

This is the reality: the cliff edge wasn’t an abstract metaphor it was visible on currency screens across the world the morning after the vote.

 

 

 

Where would you like your goalposts, Sir?

 

25 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Where would you like your goalposts, Sir?

 

You made me laugh but then I do like stupid jokes !