Sub-prime Meltdown Hits Thailand With Force

[Mid]

Central bankers: Turmoil to hit global growth

BASEL, SWITZERLAND

11-Sep-07

THE global economy faces some damage from the recent turmoil in financial markets but central bankers are prepared to deal with the situation, policymakers said yesterday.

Central bankers gathering in the Swiss city of Basel for regular talks on the economy and market said they needed more information to gauge the precise impact of the turbulence but at least the global economy was starting from a solid base.

Bank of Thailand deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee said the current episode differed from the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.

"That was due to fundamental weakness. But global fundamentals are strong now," she told Reuters on the sidelines of meetings at the Bank for International Settlements.

Still, Mexican central bank governor Guillermo Ortiz said all policymakers expected some global impact from the market upheavals over the past month.

Ortiz said the global economy was still linked to the United States and would suffer particularly if there was a serious slowing in US economic activity.

"To the extent that this affects the real economy and in particular the US economy then we will see that the second round effects are likely to impact the whole world," Ortiz said.

"Central banks are well aware of this issue and hopefully there will be sufficient action to avert this bad outcome."

Shockingly weak US jobs data on Friday triggered another round of falls in stocks and the dollar, sending safe-haven bonds prices sharply higher. The data also cemented expectations the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later this month, pushing short-dated US yields to two-year lows. The dollar hit a 15-year low against major currencies .

Chile's Vittorio Corbo also said central banks were prepared to deal with the fallout from the turmoil, which could drag on for as long as a year.

"Fortunately the world economy is in good condition but we are aware that there will be an impact," Corbo said.

"We have to have more time to observe."

Reuters

[LaoPo]

Countrywide seeks another investment: report

Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:19AM EDT

Angelo R. Mozilo, Chairman and CEO of Countrywide Financial Corporation, answers questions from a reporter during a session at the MBA's National Secondary Market Conference and Expo in New York, May 21, 2007. Countrywide Financial Corp is working to structure another strategic investment similar to the deal Bank of America Corp struck last month, the New York Post reported in its online edition on Tuesday.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp is working to structure another strategic investment similar to the deal Bank of America Corp struck last month, the New York Post reported in its online edition on Tuesday.

Countrywide received a $2 billion injection from Bank of America, helping the largest U.S. mortgage lender shore up its finances as it struggles with a liquidity crunch.

Countrywide continues to work with Goldman Sachs and law firm Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz to structure another similar strategic investment, the Post reported, citing sources familiar with the company's plans.

It's unclear at this point who is involved in the investment, the report said. But a group that could include JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc as well as several hedge funds has expressed interest in Countrywide, the report said, citing unnamed sources.

A final deal could be announced by the end of the month, the report said.

Officials at Countrywide, JPMorgan and Citigroup were not immediately available for comment.

Note:

Countrywide shares closed yesterday at $ 17.21

52 wk high: $ 45.26

52 wk low : $ 15.00

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1136989120070911

LaoPo

[cclub75]

Countrywide shares closed yesterday at $ 17.21

You mean Bank Of America has already lost its money (options to convert shares at 18 USD) ?

Oh, that's really too bad...

But wait... the 12 000 jobs axed will surely provide a little bit of... oxygen. For a few weeks.

By the way, when I look at the picture of the boss, I can't stop thinking about "Scarface" with Al Pacino.

I should stop drinking.

[LaoPo]

Countrywide shares closed yesterday at $ 17.21

You mean Bank Of America has already lost its money (options to convert shares at 18 USD) ?

Countrywide Shares Fall After Report Lender Needs More Capital

By Steve Dickson

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, fell almost 5 percent in early trading after the New York Post reported that a second multibillion-dollar bailout of the company is being negotiated.

``Countrywide is in desperate need of cash right now to continue funding mortgages, and the credit markets are still largely closed to them,'' the newspaper said, quoting a source familiar with the company.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the law firm Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz are working with Calabasas, California-based Countrywide to negotiate a cash infusion similar to the $2 billion package Bank of America Corp. agreed to provide last month, the newspaper said. Possible lenders include JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., according to the Post.

Countrywide said last week it would eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs, or 20 percent of its workforce, after investors stopped buying loans and lenders alarmed by rising subprime defaults refused to provide capital to mortgage companies.

Countrywide was at $16.36 in early trading, down 4.9 percent from the close yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares have lost almost 60 percent of their value this year.

Amber Cousins, a spokeswoman for Countrywide, didn't immediately return a call for comment.

``The issues the economy is facing are worse than most people believe,'' Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo said in a Sept. 7 interview. Mozilo has predicted the housing market slowdown will throw the U.S. economy into a recession.

Subprime Fallout

Countrywide handles one of every five new U.S. mortgages. More than 100 mortgage companies have sought buyers, halted applications or closed since the start of 2006, hurt by falling prices and record foreclosures. Countrywide forecast last week that new U.S. mortgages may fall 25 percent below this year's level.

Analysts at Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG cut their profit estimates for Countrywide yesterday. Units of Paris-based Axa SA, the French insurer, reduced their stake in Countrywide by more than half to 4.1 percent, according to a U.S. regulatory filing yesterday.

Countrywide was forced to tap $11.5 billion of emergency financing last month to replace hard-to-sell commercial paper.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

And, if its not enough, yet:

Investors cut stakes in Countrywide

LOS ANGELES—Two of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s largest shareholders have cut their stakes in the struggling mortgage lender that has slashed jobs and borrowed billions of dollars to stay in business, according to regulatory filings Monday.

1. AllianceBernstein LP had been the largest stakeholder in Countrywide. On July 31, it reported owning 63.8 million shares, or 10.7 percent of Countrywide's outstanding stock.

It cut that stake to 23.8 million shares, or 4.1 percent of the outstanding stock, this month, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

AllianceBernstein is a majority owned subsidiary of French financial services company AXA Financial Inc., which filed the SEC report.

2. In a separate SEC filing, San Francisco-based investment bank Barclays Global Investors NA said it had reduced its stake in Countrywide to 24.04 million shares, or 4.1 percent of outstanding stock.

The bank previously owned 48.6 million shares, or 8.4 percent of the outstanding stock, as of June 30.

3. Also Monday, Legg Mason Capital Management Inc. reported in an SEC filing that it boosted its stake in Countrywide to 53.4 million shares, or 9.2 percent of outstanding stock.

Legg Mason previously owned 50.3 million shares, or 8.7 percent of outstanding stock, as of June 30.

4. LMM LLC, an affiliated company, raised its stake in Countrywide to 4.5 million shares, or 0.79 percent of outstanding shares, according to the filing.

Countrywide shares have plunged from a 52-week high of $45.26 in January to a low of $15 in mid-August. Shares fell $1, or 5.49 percent, to $17.21 on Monday.

Countrywide has been struggling as the housing slump led to a sharp rise in mortgage defaults and foreclosures, particularly among borrowers with subprime loans.

The mortgage fallout has left many lenders strapped for money to fund new loans.

In recent weeks, Countrywide borrowed $11.5 billion and sold a $2 billion stake to Bank of America so it could keep operating its retail banking and mortgage lending businesses.

The company said last week it would cut as many as 12,000 jobs. Previously announced cuts involved 1,400 jobs.

From: http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6852738

You can follow the (delayed) stock movement here:

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:CFC

LaoPo

[cclub75]

Investors cut stakes in Countrywide

LOS ANGELES—Two of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s largest shareholders have cut their stakes in the struggling mortgage lender that has slashed jobs and borrowed billions of dollars to stay in business, according to regulatory filings Monday.

Wouah. I didn't see this last news. Impressive.

I mean the probability is high that Countrywide is a Enron Number 2 cooking right now, in front of our eyes. What a mess.

Edited September 11, 2007 by cclub75

[VegasVic]

Investors cut stakes in Countrywide

LOS ANGELES—Two of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s largest shareholders have cut their stakes in the struggling mortgage lender that has slashed jobs and borrowed billions of dollars to stay in business, according to regulatory filings Monday.

Wouah. I didn't see this last news. Impressive.

I mean the probability is high that Countrywide is a Enron Number 2 cooking right now, in front of our eyes. What a mess.

"I mean the probability is high that Countrywide is a Enron number 2" . Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all. If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

[cclub75]

Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all.

Not yet.

If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

The first fraud starts with the manipulation of information.

You can't deny that, every day passing, we receive other small pieces of information, statements that contradict other made before.

You can't deny that BoA putting 2 billions in this shithole, is nothing but suspicious.

However, if you don't feel manipulated, like you were probably with Enron like everybody else, fair enough.

Last point : Enron was not only a fraud. But also an amazing example of a company vanishing in a big blast, that was once a very powerfull and large one.

Therefore, it's just common sense to make the comparison with Countrywide. Another large company that is just about to hit the dust too. And will make a lot of noise. Like Enron did.

Edited September 11, 2007 by cclub75

[roamer]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

[LaoPo]

Maybe this will help the markets a bit:

Citigroup Grants $21 Billion in Funding to GMAC

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the lender partly owned by General Motors Corp. that lost more than $1 billion on mortgages, will receive as much as $21.4 billion from Citigroup Inc. to fund auto and home loans.

The financing replaces a $10 billion arrangement dating from August 2006 with New York-based Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, according to a federal filing today. GMAC will get access to $14.4 billion and may be granted $7 billion more if certain conditions are met, according to the filing. The funds are for assets tied to U.S. automobiles, mortgages and other items.

Continued here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=auiM09SPGkXE

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all.

Not yet.

If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

The first fraud starts with the manipulation of information.

You can't deny that, every day passing, we receive other small pieces of information, statements that contradict other made before.

You can't deny that BoA putting 2 billions in this shithole, is nothing but suspicious.

However, if you don't feel manipulated, like you were probably with Enron like everybody else, fair enough.

Last point : Enron was not only a fraud. But also an amazing example of a company vanishing in a big blast, that was once a very powerfull and large one.

Therefore, it's just common sense to make the comparison with Countrywide. Another large company that is just about to hit the dust too. And will make a lot of noise. Like Enron did.

Just as I thought, you don't have the first clue as to what you are talking about! By the way there is nothing suspicious about B of A "putting 2 billions into this shithole" as you so diplomatically put it, B of A has made it very clear that they would like to own Countrywide. Personally I hope that Bloomberg and the other news outlets just bash CFC to death, then I may have a chance to buy some up under $15/sh (or $10/sh if Lao Po is correct). Oh just FYI, the last time I looked Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and CITI were not chairitable organizations, nor have they ever been, quite the contrary they are the three top investment banks on Wall Street. Pay atention here and you just might have an opportunity to make some nice coin!

[Jai Dee]

US sub prime market conditions continue to affect SET

Stock brokers indicate that sub prime market conditions in the United States is affecting investment in the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

The Managing Director of the Analysis Division of the Siam Commercial Bank Securities Company, Mr. Setaput Suthiwat Naruput (เศรษฐพุฒิ สุทธิวาทนฤพุฒิ ), reports that investment in the Stock Exchange of Thailand today remains sluggish due to the effects of sub prime market conditions in the United States. US sub prime markets are also expected to affect the Thai export sector, despite improvements in Thailand's political situation.

Consumption in the nation remains low, due to slight increases in income when compared with price inflation over the years. Stock brokers believe that energy stocks remain a viable investment option during this period. Mr. Setaput said that once a new government is elected, officials should resolve Thailand's political situation in order to encourage investment.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 12 September 2007

[VegasVic]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

Nothing new for Thailand! Just look at the slew of condo developments from Ban Chang all the way to to Chanthaburi that were empty form 1997 until now, and most are still half empty despite the bargain prices.

[Mid]

STOCK MARKET / OUTLOOK

Kim Eng lowers index target

KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN

Wednesday September 12, 2007

Kim Eng Securities has revised down its SET index target to 900 points by the end of this year from 1,000 points as the US sub-prime crisis continued to put pressure on the Thai stock market.CEO Montree Sornpraisarn said that investors were still worried about the unresolved sub-prime problem, which could lead to short-term losses. He speculated that the mortgage problems could threaten global stocks for another one and a half months.

''The stock market will continue to be volatile. However, further falls will be limited as the problems have already factored in stock prices,'' he said.

snip

bangkokpost.com

[highdiver]

Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all.

Not yet.

If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

The first fraud starts with the manipulation of information.

You can't deny that, every day passing, we receive other small pieces of information, statements that contradict other made before.

You can't deny that BoA putting 2 billions in this shithole, is nothing but suspicious.

However, if you don't feel manipulated, like you were probably with Enron like everybody else, fair enough.

Last point : Enron was not only a fraud. But also an amazing example of a company vanishing in a big blast, that was once a very powerfull and large one.

Therefore, it's just common sense to make the comparison with Countrywide. Another large company that is just about to hit the dust too. And will make a lot of noise. Like Enron did.

Just as I thought, you don't have the first clue as to what you are talking about! By the way there is nothing suspicious about B of A "putting 2 billions into this shithole" as you so diplomatically put it, B of A has made it very clear that they would like to own Countrywide. Personally I hope that Bloomberg and the other news outlets just bash CFC to death, then I may have a chance to buy some up under $15/sh (or $10/sh if Lao Po is correct). Oh just FYI, the last time I looked Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and CITI were not chairitable organizations, nor have they ever been, quite the contrary they are the three top investment banks on Wall Street. Pay atention here and you just might have an opportunity to make some nice coin!

Vegas this is your point about the same pont only a few weeks ago...

Martin, First of all the name of the company is Countrywide not Countryside, secondly it is a mortgage company not a major bank, thirdy it is in no danger of going under as a matter of fact it is fully funded and capitalized through 2008 n

no matter what happens in the real estate market, and finally even if the current situation gets worse by an exponential factor Countrywide would be bought out by a major bank, it would not go out of business. Now that the facts of this situation have been made clear to you, I expect that the next time you read some of those far left wing rags that are so prevelant in G.B. you might want to check your facts before you post. For years I thought that the U.S. media (both print and electronic) was extremely liberal and slanted to the left, that is until I visited G.B. and then I really found out what the meaning of left wing lunatic fringe meant it makes the U.S. media seem almost mainstream by comparison. The current situation is a market correction and a liquidity crisis (that is currently being adressed by the FED), it bears no resemblence to the great depression of the 1930's what so ever, so any comparison does indeed make you look like a doomster as you put it. I realize that you live in a rather gloomy world over there, but do youself a favor and try and have a nice day

how are is the prediction business over there in Arizona....

Bloomberg says they are in trouble.

the CEO says they are in trouble.

the stock market says they are in trouble ....

and only Vegas Vic says its all ok....

on the other hand you

maybe its the lack of street lights in sedona that alllowes you to see the stars better that has you convinced that this is not a crisis situation

[highdiver]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

Nothing new for Thailand! Just look at the slew of condo developments from Ban Chang all the way to to Chanthaburi that were empty form 1997 until now, and most are still half empty despite the bargain prices.

There is a different between not sold and not occupied... the condo business is doing great and condos are sold but as in mnay cases used as holiday homes or just as an option for investment with our seeking the monthley return.

you know its sort of the same thing that goes on in sedona arizona where many buyers just keep the house for a holiday with out using it.

you realy should come to thailan and have a look by your self. its very difficult to see thailand and bangkok from so far a way..

[highdiver]

STOCK MARKET / OUTLOOK

Kim Eng lowers index target

KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN

Wednesday September 12, 2007

Kim Eng Securities has revised down its SET index target to 900 points by the end of this year from 1,000 points as the US sub-prime crisis continued to put pressure on the Thai stock market.CEO Montree Sornpraisarn said that investors were still worried about the unresolved sub-prime problem, which could lead to short-term losses. He speculated that the mortgage problems could threaten global stocks for another one and a half months.

''The stock market will continue to be volatile. However, further falls will be limited as the problems have already factored in stock prices,'' he said.

snip

bangkokpost.com

The SET is on 802 now so if it gets to 900 there are going to be some very happy investors..

this is great news....

[Carmine6]

Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all.

Not yet.

If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

The first fraud starts with the manipulation of information.

You can't deny that, every day passing, we receive other small pieces of information, statements that contradict other made before.

You can't deny that BoA putting 2 billions in this shithole, is nothing but suspicious.

However, if you don't feel manipulated, like you were probably with Enron like everybody else, fair enough.

Last point : Enron was not only a fraud. But also an amazing example of a company vanishing in a big blast, that was once a very powerfull and large one.

Therefore, it's just common sense to make the comparison with Countrywide. Another large company that is just about to hit the dust too. And will make a lot of noise. Like Enron did.

Just as I thought, you don't have the first clue as to what you are talking about! By the way there is nothing suspicious about B of A "putting 2 billions into this shithole" as you so diplomatically put it, B of A has made it very clear that they would like to own Countrywide. Personally I hope that Bloomberg and the other news outlets just bash CFC to death, then I may have a chance to buy some up under $15/sh (or $10/sh if Lao Po is correct). Oh just FYI, the last time I looked Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and CITI were not chairitable organizations, nor have they ever been, quite the contrary they are the three top investment banks on Wall Street. Pay atention here and you just might have an opportunity to make some nice coin!

Here's part of the problem for common shareholders if there's a new deal.

A similar deal would help with the viability of the company but it would also give away more of the upside. B of A would have 16% of shares outstanding on conversion. Another investor would be expected to also have a nice chunk as well. In the meantime, they're getting 7.25% to wait around, taking cash from the company. Common shareholders will get 3.55% if the dividend is not eliminated or cut, but don't forget they're also paying interest on $11.5 billion so who knows. B of A used Countrywide's problems to wedge themselves into a better position than buying the common shares.

Per the investment agreement attached to Countrywide's 8-k, B of A can not acquire voting shares directly or indirectly without Countrywide's written permission, or make a proposal to acquire the company, or seek to influence control of the company. The exception being for those shares resulting from the conversion of the preferred shares. They do have the right to match another takeover offer. So B of A can not do open market buys of the common shares to begin accumulating even if they like the price.

So common shareholders are stuck with a company that is viable, but which has reduced upside for them. The only way this will work out really well for common shareholders is if Countrywide can start moving its commercial paper again soon. You guys can play with fire but I think too much value to short and not enough upside to buy.

[Mid]

good news when a ratings agency lowers it's forecast .................................

novel idea .

[cclub75]

Just as I thought, you don't have the first clue as to what you are talking about! By the way there is nothing suspicious about B of A "putting 2 billions into this shithole" as you so diplomatically put it, B of A has made it very clear that they would like to own Countrywide. Personally I hope that Bloomberg and the other news outlets just bash CFC to death, then I may have a chance to buy some up under $15/sh (or $10/sh if Lao Po is correct). Oh just FYI, the last time I looked Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and CITI were not chairitable organizations, nor have they ever been, quite the contrary they are the three top investment banks on Wall Street. Pay atention here and you just might have an opportunity to make some nice coin!

You're a bit short... As for your arguments, even if you're long on Countrywide, as we all understand now.

I stand to my point.

And regarding BoA, your ingenuity is really sweet.

20 august

The FED allows BoA and Citigroup to bypass a crucial banking law : to lend up to 25 % of its capital to its brokerage affiliate.

22 august

BoA, with 3 other banks, use the so called "window discount" of the FED : 500 millions USD each

23 august

BoA "invests" 2 billions USD into Countrywide

You seem to be an expert in manipulation, thanks to your Enron experience, you should therefore try to connect some dots.

"They put money, because they want to buy". No, really it's too funny.

It reminds me the casbah market in Morocco : "good bargain, my friend, cheap, cheap".

A bit of decency please.

[midas]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

Nothing new for Thailand! Just look at the slew of condo developments from Ban Chang all the way to to Chanthaburi that were empty form 1997 until now, and most are still half empty despite the bargain prices.

There is a different between not sold and not occupied... the condo business is doing great and condos are sold but as in mnay cases used as holiday homes or just as an option for investment with our seeking the monthley return.

you know its sort of the same thing that goes on in sedona arizona where many buyers just keep the house for a holiday with out using it.

you realy should come to thailan and have a look by your self. its very difficult to see thailand and bangkok from so far a way..

But isn't this a very poor way to view an investment ? Thai investors don't seem

to attribute any importance to the " time value " of money. To rely soley

on an anticipated capital gain which may not happen as quickly or to the same

degree as was expected and to have such a wasteful attitude towards

what would otherwise be a rental return is something I've never been able

to relate to in Thailand?

[highdiver]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

Nothing new for Thailand! Just look at the slew of condo developments from Ban Chang all the way to to Chanthaburi that were empty form 1997 until now, and most are still half empty despite the bargain prices.

There is a different between not sold and not occupied... the condo business is doing great and condos are sold but as in mnay cases used as holiday homes or just as an option for investment with our seeking the monthley return.

you know its sort of the same thing that goes on in sedona arizona where many buyers just keep the house for a holiday with out using it.

you realy should come to thailan and have a look by your self. its very difficult to see thailand and bangkok from so far a way..

But isn't this a very poor way to view an investment ? Thai investors don't seem

to attribute any importance to the " time value " of money. To rely soley

on an anticipated capital gain which may not happen as quickly or to the same

degree as was expected and to have such a wasteful attitude towards

what would otherwise be a rental return is something I've never been able

to relate to in Thailand?

Totaly agree with you... accept they dont view it as an investment.

there has been much debate on this in the real estate forum.

many of those that are buying are buying it as a second home, a vaction home or just as an asset. they dont view this as an investment.

one poster has even compared it to other destinations in Europe and the US wgere complete towns are seasonal and look like ghost towns as the owners only usr the house a monthh or two a year.

the indication that many of the condoes are not occupied does not suggest that there is a drop in the market it suggests that the purchase is not done only as an investment.

[roamer]

And when I stood on my balcony on Sukhumvit last week and looked over at yet another Condo block, 95% pre-sold 6 months ago, now completed and less than 5% of windows showing lights at 9pm I wonder when the Thai version of the sub-prime market is going to go into meltdown. Probably not before the KL market does, that is truly scary, whole valleys of condo blocks with just security guards for occupants.

Nothing new for Thailand! Just look at the slew of condo developments from Ban Chang all the way to to Chanthaburi that were empty form 1997 until now, and most are still half empty despite the bargain prices.

There is a different between not sold and not occupied... the condo business is doing great and condos are sold but as in mnay cases used as holiday homes or just as an option for investment with our seeking the monthley return.

you know its sort of the same thing that goes on in sedona arizona where many buyers just keep the house for a holiday with out using it.

you realy should come to thailan and have a look by your self. its very difficult to see thailand and bangkok from so far a way..

But isn't this a very poor way to view an investment ? Thai investors don't seem

to attribute any importance to the " time value " of money. To rely soley

on an anticipated capital gain which may not happen as quickly or to the same

degree as was expected and to have such a wasteful attitude towards

what would otherwise be a rental return is something I've never been able

to relate to in Thailand?

Totaly agree with you... accept they dont view it as an investment.

there has been much debate on this in the real estate forum.

many of those that are buying are buying it as a second home, a vaction home or just as an asset. they dont view this as an investment.

one poster has even compared it to other destinations in Europe and the US wgere complete towns are seasonal and look like ghost towns as the owners only usr the house a monthh or two a year.

the indication that many of the condoes are not occupied does not suggest that there is a drop in the market it suggests that the purchase is not done only as an investment.

Ok I will try to be more concise on my original point. You stated "you realy should come to thailan and have a look by your self. its very difficult to see thailand and bangkok from so far a way.." I had already stated that I stood on my balcony in Sukhumvit last week, and I will be doing so again very shortly, thats hardly viewing from so far away.

I was talking sub-prime. I was not talking about people buying as a second home, a vacation home or an asset. I am talking about people buying in at about the 2-3M Baht bracket around Phra Khanong/On Nut area. These people are buying mainly as an investment, stretching to meet the monthly mortgage hoping to flip the apartment at a profit. In that there is little different to the wannabe property speculators worldwide. Except the crucial difference that in most parts of the world these people will seek to cover the mortgage by rental income until the property has risen sufficiently in value to take their profits, a practice that is increasingly difficult to achieve as more rental property hits the market. That may have worked until now as a model for much of the world. It doesn't work in a society where everybody wants to buy new property and won't look twice at a property that has been rented out.

There are a lot more of these properties around than the developments aimed mainly at farangs. If prices don't continue to rise, if supply continues to exceed demand then these are the folk that will walk away from their mortgages, as it happens both my wife and myself know a few of them that are considering having to do exactly that.

That is why the lights are off.

[midas]

I was talking sub-prime. I was not talking about people buying as a second home, a vacation home or an asset. I am talking about people buying in at about the 2-3M Baht bracket around Phra Khanong/On Nut area. These people are buying mainly as an investment, stretching to meet the monthly mortgage hoping to flip the apartment at a profit. In that there is little different to the wannabe property speculators worldwide. Except the crucial difference that in most parts of the world these people will seek to cover the mortgage by rental income until the property has risen sufficiently in value to take their profits, a practice that is increasingly difficult to achieve as more rental property hits the market. That may have worked until now as a model for much of the world. It doesn't work in a society where everybody wants to buy new property and won't look twice at a property that has been rented out.

There are a lot more of these properties around than the developments aimed mainly at farangs. If prices don't continue to rise, if supply continues to exceed demand then these are the folk that will walk away from their mortgages, as it happens both my wife and myself know a few of them that are considering having to do exactly that.

That is why the lights are off.

Interesting roamer. I wonder if there has been any recent in-depth research into this trend

in BKK ?

[roamer]

I was talking sub-prime. I was not talking about people buying as a second home, a vacation home or an asset. I am talking about people buying in at about the 2-3M Baht bracket around Phra Khanong/On Nut area. These people are buying mainly as an investment, stretching to meet the monthly mortgage hoping to flip the apartment at a profit. In that there is little different to the wannabe property speculators worldwide. Except the crucial difference that in most parts of the world these people will seek to cover the mortgage by rental income until the property has risen sufficiently in value to take their profits, a practice that is increasingly difficult to achieve as more rental property hits the market. That may have worked until now as a model for much of the world. It doesn't work in a society where everybody wants to buy new property and won't look twice at a property that has been rented out.

There are a lot more of these properties around than the developments aimed mainly at farangs. If prices don't continue to rise, if supply continues to exceed demand then these are the folk that will walk away from their mortgages, as it happens both my wife and myself know a few of them that are considering having to do exactly that.

That is why the lights are off.

Interesting roamer. I wonder if there has been any recent in-depth research into this trend

in BKK ?

I've no doubt there has been Midas, but by the banks and unpublished. That probably accounts for the plug being pulled on so many buildings near to completion. I think this is something you have to walk around and see and form your own opinions. It was even more evident on night time drives around the suburbs of KL, then passing through the airport bookshop and seeing half a dozen books on how to become a property millionaire. Seems like everyone read the same book at the same time.

[VegasVic]

Cclub, with a reckless and unsubstantiated statement like that I think that I will have to reconsider the fact that at one time I found you to be a fairly informed individual. I know a great deal about what went on with Enron and I see no similarity to Countrywide at all.

Not yet.

If you are aware of some outright fraud in accounting practices or shell companies at Countrywide I would be more than happy to listen to what you have found, but aside from that I must assume that you are clueless as to what is going on with Countrywide currently!

The first fraud starts with the manipulation of information.

You can't deny that, every day passing, we receive other small pieces of information, statements that contradict other made before.

You can't deny that BoA putting 2 billions in this shithole, is nothing but suspicious.

However, if you don't feel manipulated, like you were probably with Enron like everybody else, fair enough.

Last point : Enron was not only a fraud. But also an amazing example of a company vanishing in a big blast, that was once a very powerfull and large one.

Therefore, it's just common sense to make the comparison with Countrywide. Another large company that is just about to hit the dust too. And will make a lot of noise. Like Enron did.

Just as I thought, you don't have the first clue as to what you are talking about! By the way there is nothing suspicious about B of A "putting 2 billions into this shithole" as you so diplomatically put it, B of A has made it very clear that they would like to own Countrywide. Personally I hope that Bloomberg and the other news outlets just bash CFC to death, then I may have a chance to buy some up under $15/sh (or $10/sh if Lao Po is correct). Oh just FYI, the last time I looked Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and CITI were not chairitable organizations, nor have they ever been, quite the contrary they are the three top investment banks on Wall Street. Pay atention here and you just might have an opportunity to make some nice coin!

Vegas this is your point about the same pont only a few weeks ago...

Martin, First of all the name of the company is Countrywide not Countryside, secondly it is a mortgage company not a major bank, thirdy it is in no danger of going under as a matter of fact it is fully funded and capitalized through 2008 n

no matter what happens in the real estate market, and finally even if the current situation gets worse by an exponential factor Countrywide would be bought out by a major bank, it would not go out of business. Now that the facts of this situation have been made clear to you, I expect that the next time you read some of those far left wing rags that are so prevelant in G.B. you might want to check your facts before you post. For years I thought that the U.S. media (both print and electronic) was extremely liberal and slanted to the left, that is until I visited G.B. and then I really found out what the meaning of left wing lunatic fringe meant it makes the U.S. media seem almost mainstream by comparison. The current situation is a market correction and a liquidity crisis (that is currently being adressed by the FED), it bears no resemblence to the great depression of the 1930's what so ever, so any comparison does indeed make you look like a doomster as you put it. I realize that you live in a rather gloomy world over there, but do youself a favor and try and have a nice day

how are is the prediction business over there in Arizona....

Bloomberg says they are in trouble.

the CEO says they are in trouble.

the stock market says they are in trouble ....

and only Vegas Vic says its all ok....

on the other hand you

maybe its the lack of street lights in sedona that alllowes you to see the stars better that has you convinced that this is not a crisis situation

Lets see now, I bought CFC when it bottomed back in the middle of August, and during that same trading day when someone here posted that Warren Buffet might be interested in parts of CFC, I responded and told that particular poster that while Buffett might want parts of CFC that I had heard from a good source that B of A wanted the whole company and low and behold a few hours later when the market closed B of A announced the $2 billion investment in CFC. Even though I could have flipped that CFC in the low twenties the next day, I held onto CFC in case B of A announced a takeover and posted to Lao Po that I had put a stop in at $19/sh feeling that if it drifted back down to that level then any takeover was not imminent and CFC would be heading lower. Then a couple weeks later I posted that I got sold out at $19/sh, leaving me with a profit in excess of 18% for a 3 week trade. At this time I conjectured that CFC would likely drift down to $15/sh and possibily lower, and Lao Po posted that "you might even see $10/sh". Now from these prior posts that can be easily accessed it does appear that I can indeed read the stars , as for the post in which I stated that CFC was capitalized through 2008, that was a direct quote from Mr. Mozillo! There is still at least one more good trade left in CFC, so anyone out there who actually has some money to invest is interested in making some easy cash then just pay attention, so far my predictions on CFC in both directions have been spot on! By the way how is that booming real estate market in Thailand treating you highdiver

[LaoPo]

Countrywide Sued by Workers Over Retirement Losses

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the mortgage lender that said it will cut its workforce by 20 percent, was sued by employees claiming the company withheld information about its financial health and caused the value of their retirement plan to drop.

Countrywide, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said last week it would eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs after investors stopped buying loans and bankers, alarmed by rising subprime defaults, refused to provide capital to mortgage companies. Countrywide's stock declined more than 60 percent this year.

The company's workers asked for class-action status, the right to sue as a group, in a complaint filed yesterday in Santa Ana, California. They also sued Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo and Chief Administrative Officer Marshall Gates.

``Defendants failed to conduct an appropriate investigation into whether Countrywide stock was a prudent investment for the plan'' and ``failed to provide the plan's participants with information regarding Countrywide's improper activities,'' the employees said in their complaint.

Countrywide, based in Calabasas, California, hasn't seen the complaint, according to a statement e-mailed by spokesperson Jumana Bauwens. ``From what we can discern from the news release put out by the public-relations firm for plaintiffs' counsel, we do not believe the case has merit, and we will defend it vigorously,'' Countrywide said in the statement.

Stock Plunged

About one-third of the retirement plan's holdings were company stock, according to the complaint. The employees suffered ``hundreds of millions'' in losses when Countrywide's stock plunged, they said.

``I think the record is crystal clear that the CEO knew this company was highly risky, that it was engaging in risky behavior and that this was no longer a prudent investment,'' Steve Berman, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said in an interview. Berman said about 50,000 people are invested in Countrywide's retirement plan.

Countrywide fell 26 cents, or 1.54 percent, to $16.62 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

The case is Cruz v. Countrywide Financial, CV-07-1050, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Santa Ana).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Note 1: .....well, better no note...but, for the sake of the employees, I certainly hope it will not become another Enron...

Note 2:

Reconsidering Note 1, I suggest Countrywide to instruct their website fellows to change the content a bit.....:

"Complementing the Multicultural Markets initiative is Countrywide's One Trillion Dollar Challenge, our campaign to fund $1 Trillion in home loans to minorities and to borrowers in lower-income communities, between 2001 and 2010. As a mortgage lender, we are determined to play a critical role in ensuring that the dream of homeownership is attainable to everyone. Homeownership creates wealth and enables individuals and families to prosper, while playing a vital role in the health of our country's economy.

Thank you for visiting the Countrywide Financial Web site. We are eager to serve your needs and count you among our satisfied customers.

Sincerely,

Angelo R. Mozilo

Chairman and CEO

Countrywide Financial Corporation

From: http://about.countrywide.com/about/Chairman.aspx

LaoPo

Edited September 13, 2007 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

BUT:

Countrywide's Mozilo has tight grip on job

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As Countrywide Financial Corp Chairman Angelo Mozilo contemplates firing up to 12,000 workers from the company he founded, the odds are he won't be following them out the door anytime soon.

Mozilo is an unusual candidate for job security: He pushed the once dominant U.S. mortgage lender into a liquidity crisis by relaxing lending standards on risky subprime mortgages. Nearly 61 percent of the company's market capitalization, or $15 billion, has been erased since the beginning of the year.

What's more, Mozilo has been unloading his stake in the company throughout the housing downturn, using a prearranged trading plan to cash in millions of dollars worth of stock options.

"In an ordinary company, he would have difficulty surviving," said Sean Egan, managing director of independent credit ratings firm Egan-Jones Ratings Inc. "Since he's a founder, he has a lot more pull than is ordinarily the case. We wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on for a couple more years."

Mozilo's current employment contract runs through 2009, when he will be 71 years old. The son of a butcher, Mozilo founded Countrywide nearly 40 years ago, building the company into the No. 1 mortgage lender in the United States.

"He's clearly the charismatic leader of the company," said Fred Cannon, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods. "It's hard to imagine Countrywide without Angelo Mozilo."

Countrywide did not return calls seeking comment.

Countrywide's board has paid Mozilo far better than top executives at much larger financial institutions. Last year, for example, Mozilo's pay -- $48 million - topped that of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Jamie Dimon ($38 million) and the $28 million received by Bank of America Corp. Chairman and CEO Kenneth Lewis.

"If the board feels the market has lost confidence in (Mozilo), they might have to do something," Cannon said.

Continues here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1225719720070912

LaoPo

[somtaamgaiyang]

Flipping was one of the things that got Thailand into so much trouble in 97, and once again, we have underutilised apartment blocks all over Bangkok with people trying to time their entry and exit to make a buck. The mess they are making of the visa laws doesn't exactly make Thailand a more attractive place to buy a condo also. The willingness of people to follow the herd is quite amazing. Does anyone know where the next raft of BTS extensions will be in 10 years time. Follow me, lets get in quick!

You are right, in Thailand people do not see the time cost of property investments, however, I fear that we may see a burst in this bubble sometime if the economy keeps stagnating like it is.

[Carmine6]

a

Edited September 13, 2007 by Carmine6

[Martin]

"....... sued by employees claiming ....................... caused the value of their retirement plan to drop....."

There's a couple of phrases that we will be seeing a lot of.

Rob people of their savings and they get angry, look to make the 'thief' give back the dosh, and (failing that) want a scapegoat.

I see one of the biggest, oldest-established, reputable, law firms in the States is reported to be beefing up its 'bankruptcy litigation' resources big way.

But, even where pension trustees have invested cautiously, Bernanke-induced inflation will reduce the purchasing power of resulting pensions.

There's a lot of dreams of coming 'golden years' going to have to be downscaled.

But, still, better that the bitter medicine be taken sooner and smaller, than later and bigger.