Global Correction

[Naam]

Funny Klingon

You know I ask because Im sure that we all get caught up in all of this. I know I do & I do not even understand a fraction of it Im sure but........

I think to myself at times if it all went to pot...these things that I do not fully understand what is the worst that could happen?

Would I go hungry....No -

Would I be without shelter...No

Do I have enough to protect my family...Yes

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says WHO? do you have enough land around your home to grow vegetables, keep a few pigs and chicken to feed yourself and your family and last not least your livestock once your Krügerrands and Maple Leaves are spent? do you have enough ammunition and do your family members know how to shoot potential intruders who would want to steal your vegetables, pigs and chicken and perhaps initially your gold because they saw you paying with bullion at Winn Dixie or Publix?

the worst possible scenario i can imagine is a worldwide depression as well as rampant inflation which will cause all of us to suffer. exceptions are the super rich who have enough value to barter to last them for a life time and value enough to afford the best possible protection.

[flying]

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says WHO? do you have enough land around your home to grow vegetables, keep a few pigs and chicken to feed yourself and your family and last not least your livestock once your Krügerrands and Maple Leaves are spent? do you have enough ammunition and do your family members know how to shoot potential intruders who would want to steal your vegetables, pigs and chicken and perhaps initially your gold because they saw you paying with bullion at Winn Dixie or Publix?

the worst possible scenario i can imagine is a worldwide depression as well as rampant inflation which will cause all of us to suffer. exceptions are the super rich who have enough value to barter to last them for a life time and value enough to afford the best possible protection.

Says me

Sorry I do not mean to sound condescending or superior or even like a survivalist but yes Me

We do have enough & are quite self sufficient if need be.

Remember I live rural

I am on my own water my own septic my own gardens....Pigs run around these hills to the point that they get hit by cars at times. Also this is a rock surrounded by ocean so fish is there.....etc etc

Yes I use to shoot competitively so I have protective devices at my disposal.

I am also a reloader so ammo is not a problem

Yes my family members are more than adequately trained to use what they need.

Though I cannot imagine shooting an intruder who needs food. Then again as I said..... rural.....So that is just how we think here. Not to say I couldnt kill anything that threatened harm to my family.

As for bullion at stores I was never one to consider that possibility. I just bought some for the kids/grandkids or who knows if it did go hyperinflation like the goldbugs say maybe I would be instantly wealthy? but it wouldn't really change anything for me.Meung Gun

But all that aside my original question was what do others worry about when considering the bad news we seem to get daily regarding all this financial turmoil.

Have they a thought about how they think it would affect them personally.

You know its funny too that I have asked my wife.......I said back in 97 when TL had all that trouble how did it affect you? She said no...nothing ...same as always.

I think they are similar to my situation.

Edited January 14, 2009 by flying

[midas]

Flying

surely the point in all this is that no one knows for sure! We are in such

uncharted waters-when was the last time the financial system was facing

such potentially large and unquantifiable losses? Surely we don't know for certain

what the implications of all this to the financial system?

Yes if it all collapsed many of us could still find a way to ' live '

may be we would have to make some big adjustments.

"In life, unlike chess, the game continues after checkmate"

Yes I know none knows so therefore I ask is that what your afraid of? The unknown?

I just am wondering thats all.

At the same time you said it all in that last line didn't you

OK what I fear most is anarchy resulting from a break down of law and order

if the financial system collapsed and people lost everything.

And animal like behaviour from desparate people -----this is much more scary to

me than the thought of nuclear war

[flying]

Flying

surely the point in all this is that no one knows for sure! We are in such

uncharted waters-when was the last time the financial system was facing

such potentially large and unquantifiable losses? Surely we don't know for certain

what the implications of all this to the financial system?

Yes if it all collapsed many of us could still find a way to ' live '

may be we would have to make some big adjustments.

"In life, unlike chess, the game continues after checkmate"

Yes I know none knows so therefore I ask is that what your afraid of? The unknown?

I just am wondering thats all.

At the same time you said it all in that last line didn't you

OK what I fear most is anarchy resulting from a break down of law and order

if the financial system collapsed and people lost everything.

And animal like behaviour from desparate people -----this is much more scary to

me than the thought of nuclear war

I think your fear is probably the most common especially in urban areas.

I dont blame you & I think if I lived in a city like L.A. or New York I would move.

Then again I think of places like Thailand.

There they have more folks than most places & they have what looks like the least law enforcement ( from what I have seen ) yet they do pretty well.

I guess it is just a different type of highly populated area

May I ask what part of the world you live in? Are you in Thailand now?

[midas]

I think your fear is probably the most common especially in urban areas.

I dont blame you & I think if I lived in a city like L.A. or New York I would move.

Then again I think of places like Thailand.

There they have more folks than most places & they have what looks like the least law enforcement ( from what I have seen ) yet they do pretty well.

I guess it is just a different type of highly populated area

May I ask what part of the world you live in? Are you in Thailand now?

Yes I live in coastal area in Thailand.

Christmas and new year I was in " Isaan " -the all-important rice producing area

in Northeastern Thailand and there it is as if the world could have

been totally obliterated but it still wouldn't change the slow

and very laid-back lifestyle of the people there

they are not remotely interested what is going on in Bangkok

not to mention the rest of the world!

[flying]

Yes I live in coastal area in Thailand.

Christmas and new year I was in " Isaan " -the all-important rice producing area

in Northeastern Thailand and there it is as if the world could have

been totally obliterated but it still wouldn't change the slow

and very laid-back lifestyle of the people there

they are not remotely interested what is going on in Bangkok

not to mention the rest of the world!

Well then it does not sound like you have to worry about anarchy too much eh?

Sounds like a nice place to be it it all goes bad.

[midas]

Yes I live in coastal area in Thailand.

Christmas and new year I was in " Isaan " -the all-important rice producing area

in Northeastern Thailand and there it is as if the world could have

been totally obliterated but it still wouldn't change the slow

and very laid-back lifestyle of the people there

they are not remotely interested what is going on in Bangkok

not to mention the rest of the world!

Well then it does not sound like you have to worry about anarchy too much eh?

Sounds like a nice place to be it it all goes bad.

If i needed to just survive in the the event

of a financial disaster - I would go back to Isaan

- that of course assumes that the Thai government

didnt ask foreigners to leave Dont forget

we are all only here on a visa - there is no

" security of tenure " as such - but other

than that - yes there is plenty of food with

rice and the trees are full of fruit

and there is fish everywhere - so they all

live very simple lives

[bingobongo]

naam, is your avatar that of a klingon? aren't those also the things that are left over when one is unable to wipe his own arse?

anyway, wave 2 is here, and it will be oh so nasty (and this will be followed by wave 3)

some of you silly sods didn't actually think the correction was over did you? it was merely the pause that refreshes......see you at the bottom (that was a pun naam in reference to klingons)

remember, the bond market is smarter than the stock market, and something very nasty is coming

oh mercy me, can it really be.......enjoy

Edited January 14, 2009 by bingobongo

[flying]

The New Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns, and

Inflatable Lifeboats

By Timothy Sohn, New York Magazine; 11 January 2009

http://nymag.com/news/features/all-new/53372/

During the final months of 2008, as the financial markets imploded,

talk on trading desks turned to food and water stockpiles, generators,

guns, and high-speed inflatable boats. "The system really was about six

hours from failing," says Gene Lange, a manager at a midtown hedge

fund, referring to the week in September when Lehman went bust and AIG

had to be bailed out. "When you think about how close we were to the

precipice, I don't think it necessarily makes a guy crazy to prepare

for the potential worst-case scenario."

He's not the only one. In his book Wealth, War, published last year,

former Morgan Stanley chief global strategist Barton Biggs advised

people to prepare for the possibility of a total breakdown of civil

society. A senior analyst whose reports are read at hedge funds all

over the city wrote just before Christmas that some of his clients are

"so bearish they've purchased firearms and safes and are stocking their

pantries with soups and canned foods." This fear is very much reflected

in the market -- prices of corporate bonds have been so beaten down at

various points that they suggest a higher default rate than during the

Great Depression.

Meanwhile, while the overall gold market has fluctuated, the premium

for quarter-ounce gold coins -- meaning the difference between the

price for gold you can hold in your hand and that for "paper gold,"

such as exchange-traded funds -- rose to an all-time high of 20

percent.

"Gold is transportable, it's 100 percent liquid, and it's perfectly

divisible in the context of ounces, bars, or coins," says the head of a

California research firm who keeps a supply of it, along with food,

water, and guns, on hand. "And most important, there's no counterparty"

-- i.e., it's an investment beholden to no one, and perhaps one of the

few assets that will retain value if the financial system collapses.

While it may look like these Wall Streeters are betting on such a

collapse, their embrace of survivalism is an outgrowth of their

professional habits of mind: Having observed the economy's shaky

high-wire act from their ringside seats, they are trying to manage

their risk and "hedge" against a potential fall.

[Naam]

naam, is your avatar that of a klingon? aren't those also the things that are left over when one is unable to wipe his own arse?

poor little boy, how come you forgot to add as usual "the pain... the pain... will come to LOS too!"

[Naam]

"Gold is transportable, it's 100 percent liquid, and it's perfectly divisible in the context of ounces, bars, or coins," says the head of a California research firm who keeps a supply of it...

sure! nothing easier than transporting a few kilos of gold in the pockets of ones trousers... provided the suspenders are strong enough to keep the trousers up

[flying]

"Gold is transportable, it's 100 percent liquid, and it's perfectly divisible in the context of ounces, bars, or coins," says the head of a California research firm who keeps a supply of it...

sure! nothing easier than transporting a few kilos of gold in the pockets of ones trousers... provided the suspenders are strong enough to keep the trousers up

True

But a million dollars of gold at 800 an ounce is only 35 kilos in weight.

Compare that to say a million dollars worth of pork butts

[cclub75]

This time we are toasted.

Look at the chart of the US retail sales (december).

It's a not a drop... it's a collapsus.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/...n-december.html

But, mai pen rai. Obama will save us with his "stimulus plan". And the special allowance of 2000 THB of Abhisit will do the trick in Thailand too.

;-)

We are toasted.

[Naam]

This time we are toasted.

who is "we" Cclub? are you speaking for yourself using 'pluralis majestatis'?

[Nouf]

naam, is your avatar that of a klingon? aren't those also the things that are left over when one is unable to wipe his own arse?

anyway, wave 2 is here, and it will be oh so nasty (and this will be followed by wave 3)

some of you silly sods didn't actually think the correction was over did you? it was merely the pause that refreshes......see you at the bottom (that was a pun naam in reference to klingons)

remember, the bond market is smarter than the stock market, and something very nasty is coming

oh mercy me, can it really be.......enjoy

some of those CMBX spreads are going parabolic and starting to get a little energentic, i guess no one believes in the lies told by Bernanke, it dont look good the AA and BBB spreads are looking like they wanna see the moon

credit market are sure looking like they are tightning, i guess thats what Obama wants the other $350 million from the TARP for hanky and Panky know whats going on in the credit markets

Edited January 15, 2009 by Nouf

[bingobongo]

naam you again prove there is no correlation between age and wisdom, but alas senility is not cureable only manageable

anyway, did you heed my advice and by yen a few months ago? probably not.......say good bye to the sterling......yes naam, dam_n i am good

Yen Rises Toward Record High Versus Pound on U.K. Bank Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[Naam]

anyway, did you heed my advice and by yen a few months ago? probably not.......say good bye to the sterling......yes naam, dam_n i am good

no i did not heed any of your advice little poor boy. by the way, the last time i held Sterling was 1992 till Soros cracked the currency. there was however ample time to get out after reaping in many years of fat coupons. you don't remember? you didn't have money then? of course not because at that time wanking in a dark corner was of much more interest for you. even in recent times our british friends had ample time to switch as the writing on the wall was quite clear. that of course does not apply to those Brits who draw pensions or invested their money in obsceneties like "qprops" or rental property saddled with a mortgage. things would have been different if they had opted for the €UR.

questions: have you stopped beating up your <wife/girlfriend/boyfriend>? delete what is not applicable are you still forecasting (as months ago) 10Y UST @ 4.2% which will cause international havoc? did Viet Nam's inflation rate bring the economy Thailand's down as prophesied by you? today again no mentioning of "the pain, the pain will come to LOS"?

of course my questions are only rhetorical as cowards like you never stand their man when confronted. all what they do is turn up, throw a few (what they think are) insults around, make a few noncommitting statements and disappear in their holes again. if you weren't so entertaining by displaying your inferiority complexes i'd call you disgusting. but the fact is i pity people like you who'd need a long ladder and do quite some climbing to reach me.

[lannarebirth]

This time we are toasted.

Look at the chart of the US retail sales (december).

It's a not a drop... it's a collapsus.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/...n-december.html

But, mai pen rai. Obama will save us with his "stimulus plan". And the special allowance of 2000 THB of Abhisit will do the trick in Thailand too.

;-)

We are toasted.

Toasted? when I look at those numbers I think things are finally moving in the right direction.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

naam you again prove there is no correlation between age and wisdom, but alas senility is not cureable only manageable

anyway, did you heed my advice and by yen a few months ago? probably not.......say good bye to the sterling......yes naam, dam_n i am good

Yen Rises Toward Record High Versus Pound on U.K. Bank Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

So tell us bingo, how is the short of the SET doing that you took out Dec 4th or 5th, lets see it was at about 385 then so you have only lost about 10%. You also shorted the baht at the same time but it hasn't changed much since then so you most likely only loosing a little bit on that.

You were bragging about it being one of your brilliant moves. Are you still holding or have you taken your loss??

[bingobongo]

today's lesson is reversion back to the mean

and yes, despite the bar girls, sunshine, and unicorns, LOS will feel more pain

Edited February 1, 2009 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

like dominos......they will all fall down

Edited February 1, 2009 by bingobongo

[hhgz]

Gosh, yet another load from the "lollipops and rainbows" guy himself.

"did you heed my advice and by yen a few months ago? probably not...say good bye to the sterling...dam_n i am good"

No one took your advice, bingobongo, not even you. Many people, though, did notice the trend without your yammering, and changed their investment strategy.

[bingobongo]

who were the fools on this thread who thought Asia was immune? oh yes, now i remember.........lol

did LOS ever find that unicorn that craps skittles?

China: Up to 26 million rural migrants now jobless

"If they are unemployed for a long time, it will be a time bomb," Liu said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090202/ap_on_...china_stability

Edited February 2, 2009 by bingobongo

[VegasVic]

who were the fools on this thread who thought Asia was immune? oh yes, now i remember.........lol

did LOS ever find that unicorn that craps skittles?

China: Up to 26 million rural migrants now jobless

"If they are unemployed for a long time, it will be a time bomb," Liu said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090202/ap_on_...china_stability

I think they found the unicorn, but you can only see it crapping skittles if you are wearing rose colored glasses Sadly those chinese migrants will be unemployed for a lengthy duration and legions more will folow in their footsteps I have been telling Lao Po and anyone else here who wanted to listen since late summer of 2007 (when the SSE was over 6000) that the SSE was going to crash and China would eventually implode under its own weight! The former has come to pass and now the later is unraveling. Asia was never immune, they are just on a time lag!

[AlexLah]

26 Million only?

Could they not be used to do some restoration work on the Chinese wall?

Just kidding.

[flying]

Yes but you know they say

Up to 26 million rural migrants now jobless

Just wait as the US goes up in jobless.

These are not rural migrants that can go home & grow food.

These are folks with heavy monthly bills that either get paid or they get booted to the curb.

The lovely US Govt has said many times they need to re-value the homes to what is now reasonable.

Well I just dont think they mean it as I see tons of foreclosures here daily.

Also what is reasonable? Homes dont sell so should they re-value to that market?

What difference will it make to someone with no income?

Fine

Edited February 3, 2009 by flying

[samuibeachcomber]

surely the value of someones home is the price someone is prepared to pay,it cannot be artificially made.with regards to the USA and the UK,money was lent with little deposit and with little credit checks either being made or applied.it was actively encourag ed by a democrat govt. and senate.I for one would not blame the people applying for these loans,it was probably the first and only chance they have ever had.an impossible dream for some.The blame lies fairly and squarely on the govt. and on the banks.

In my opinion, the pouring of money into the banking system will prove to be an even bigger mistake.let the rolling of the dice settle where it may.

But i believe this has all been orchestrated to happen,some peoples golden plan that has still to be played out.

with regard to unemployment,which seems to be happening on a massive global scale,if i was in govt. i would encourage companies to hold on to their most skilled workers govts. could part pay a wage to the firms holding onto these people.employees that were n't so vital,skill wise, could be let go,receive welfare payments on condition they attend re skilling programs for jobs in growth sectors in the future,one such growth sector would surely be in the environment,for example a trade in installing solar panels to homes etc.

[samuibeachcomber]

am just watching gordon brown being interviewed on CNN,he keeps harping on about this global crisis,global this global that,as if its the only way to go.I would have to say its this global thinking(plan)that has got everycountry into the mess its in now.anyone honest and serious would say '&lt;deleted&gt; it" lets get back to basics,individual country sovereignty,let each country control its own way of living,then if it doesn't work out for that country(economically speaking)then only they are affected.but no the top boys/girls want total world control in the hands of the few,and they will get their way to the detriment of everyone else........................to put it bluntly this global thing is all bullshit.

[quiksilva]

A technical distinction is needed at this point.

The market value of a home is what a buyer and seller are willing to transact at, free from duress, special interests and after a reasonable period of marketing.

What used to be known as "Forced sale values" (this term was dropped by the RICS recently, in the US they call it Liquidation Value or Orderly Liquidation Value), the RICS now a define it as a value that has been derived with special stated assumptions, (i.e. short marketing timeframe due to a desperate seller!)).

So yes what I will call 'forced sale values' (sorry I like the old definition better) are inherently different to market values and of course tend to be much lower. As more and more homes come on to the market and are sold at these rates the average market value falls.

The seller however is under no compulsion to sell at this lower level, but this is what buyers will naturally refer to, and hence only those sellers that must sell, will do so at this new lower value.

This is what has been happening is the States and the UK and will continue to happen as foreclosures rise with the number of unemployed and as the NINJA's (No Income No Job or Assets) as well as the other over stretched mortgagees struggle to meet their repayments, in an era when their salaries are docked and their bonuses evaporate.

This is why the homes that are hardest hit in these times tend to be those of the middle and lower value brackets, prime property values, with their wealthy owners, are also dragged down due to market forces, but by a much lesser degree.

Edited February 3, 2009 by quiksilva

[henryalleman]

The worst still have to come in the US, just wait when the Credit Card crisis will start. The housing crisis will look peanuts compared with that.

I get the impression that the Americans forgot that on one time or another the bills have to be paid. You just can't defer your credit indeffinitly Last week a saw a documentary where a man told he paid his mortgage with his Credit card. Don't he realises that he have to pay interest twice?

The American public and government has an attitude to live on borrowed money. So they are equally guilty for the collapse of the financial systeml.

And they not learn their lesson yet. The inter banking lending rates ar already zero and the trade balance and deficit are dramatic and still the US government lend the money to make the American public spending and borrowing more.

Its just a shame and almost criminal that the rest of the world is sufering by it and must pick up the peaces.

Secondly from the moment that the banks stepped out of their role as traditional banker and set up their own financial products and constructions and almost force people to borrow more, only to make an artificial raise of their shares and profits we could see it comming.

A few of the most profitable and strongest European banks like Santander, Rabo Bank and Deutsche bank never did like that.

The CEO of Santander explained it very well when he mentioned in an interview his golden banking rules

1-if you don't understand a financial product DON'T BUY IT

2- if you would not buy it by yourself DON'T SELL IT

3- if there is no secured collateral DON'T LENT THE MONEY