Photo courtesy of Khaosod

Vietnam is poised to overtake Thailand in economic size, driven by significant state-led infrastructure investments. The Vietnamese government aims for a real GDP growth of 8% in 2025 and over 10% in subsequent years, whereas Thailand's growth is projected to decelerate due to domestic political instability and border tensions with Cambodia. By 2026, the OECD forecasts that Thailand’s real GDP will grow only by 1.5%.

Vietnam's economic advantage is fueled by ambitious infrastructure projects, with public investment expected to rise by 26% by 2026. Key projects include a new airport near Ho Chi Minh City and a China-backed rail line under construction. Economist Can Van Luc notes that these investments could boost Vietnam's growth by 1.6 percentage points, potentially positioning it as Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy after Indonesia by 2027.

In contrast, Thailand is facing economic challenges such as high household debt and a sluggish recovery in tourism. The manufacturing sector is also under pressure, highlighted by Suzuki Motor's exit from vehicle production and Honda Motor's reduced output. Despite facing hurdles like bureaucratic red tape, Vietnam's robust investment strategy appears set to outpace Thailand, with expectations of a GDP per head exceeding $5,000.

Looking forward, Vietnam’s economic trajectory suggests continued advancement bolstered by infrastructure development, while Thailand must address its internal challenges to regain economic momentum. Experts will watch closely how these dynamics affect the regional economic landscape, and whether Thailand can implement reforms to enhance its economic resilience, reported Khaosod.

Key Takeaways

• Vietnam is projected to surpass Thailand economically due to major infrastructure investments.

• Thailand is hindered by political uncertainty, high debt, and manufacturing sector challenges.

• Vietnam aims for continued growth with significant GDP per head increments.

Related Stories:

New Push for Growth in Thailand's Medical Economy

Thailand-Cambodia Conflict Threatens Border Economy

  

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Khaosod 2026-01-06

 

 

The result of mismanagement by the Governments of Thailand, the extreme expensive THB and the unnecessary border tensions... Thailand should work to make tourists feel welcome, instead of double prices and standards, renew many outdated laws, weaken the THB to improve the export and economy, educate people how to use their money and stop with too many holidays...And the tax money should be spend wise instead of many wasted ideas

Many economic forums have warned Thailand for many decades it needs to diversify it's economy, so it's not reliant solely on tourism.

However, successive adminstrations have shown such short sightedness, that their immediate switch is to push the country into a reliance on more mass cheap tourism for shor term gains, this time on steroids. The previous adminstration after the elections had the chance to set a long term goal of diversifying the economy and pushing the population away from tourism, ploughing money into education. Instead it gave massive investments into removing all visa fees from tourists (from China, India and other less developed nations). The country further addicted to cheap mass tourism, further pushing the population into supplying the tourism sector. A parents today will push his children immediately into servicing tourism as it's the quickest way to make money.

It's this addiction to tourism that keeps Thailand well below Vietnam, Malaysia, etc - always a push for short term gain over any long term strategy.

This leaves Thailand at the mercy of world events that may effect tourism, any wars, any economic downturns, any incidents in Thailand that could harm tourism. We saw this with covid, and if the war with Cambodia had esculated into any tourist area it would have devastated the economy.

The only solution is to invest in education, and push the people away from cheap tourism. Reinstate the billions lost to visa giveaway schemes, and plough that money into education for local Thais. That means pivoting away from cheap tourists, and push more for quality OVER QUANTITY. Higher spending tourists (means removing the riff raff cheap trash visitors) will need less workers to service them but for the same revenue. The rest of the population, now better educated into different sectors, creating wealth, business.

It was only a matter of time. Vietnam has the foresight and education and willing workforce to make it happen. Thailand has, for too long, rested on it's laurels of complacency of an established tourist economy. It's not just about tourism. Thailand, lost a lot of foreign direct investment due to the military coup in 2014 and became uncompetitive also. Time for Thailand to get a grip and wake up. Thailand could be an economic powerhouse if it chose to be so with the right leadership and incentives.

No offense at all to Thai people but the Vietnamese are clearly more intelligent and driven. Doesn't matter to me though, I like everyone else aren't in Thailand because of the genius minds and high levels of development.

No surprise...Thailand is in a clusterf**k now..in fact always has been...If they didnt sell sex, nobody would come

16 minutes ago, Lingba said:

No surprise...Thailand is in a clusterf**k now..in fact always has been...If they didnt sell sex, nobody would come

I's actually really lovely right now in the north now if you get yourself situated correctly.

3 hours ago, Lingba said:

No surprise...Thailand is in a clusterf**k now..in fact always has been...If they didnt sell sex, nobody would come

many Thai apologists hate this fact.

3 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

I like everyone else aren't in Thailand because of the genius minds and high levels of development.

this is a funny statement, but painfully true!!

Maybe if the Thai military were not in control, Thailand would advance. But, alas. How long before Thailand becomes the poorest member of ASEAN?

2 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

But, alas. How long before Thailand becomes the poorest member of ASEAN?

Have you been to Laos or Myanmar (Burma)?

Thailand has its structural problems, but the GDP per capita is still about 60-70% more than Vietnam. (according to worldometers.info)

Thailand: $7,942, Vietnam: $4,745.

It's easier to catch up to someone whose ahead (and has already blazed the trail) than it is to surpass them. They're both going to struggle getting over the mid-income hurdle.

Thailand could do a lot better at attracting foreign investment and the tech that comes with it if they'd quit being so zenophobic in their policies toward foreign owned businesses. Western managed companies tend to pay better, their tech is generally more advanced, and they definitely train better... But they're not allowed to pay bribes. Which really limits opportunities in LOS.

They have priced themselves out because of the ridiculous high baht.

They will never change as we see how they allways find a reason why the baht is so strong.They never look at themselves.Gready is the main reason.

On 1/6/2026 at 4:40 AM, snoop1130 said:

whereas Thailand's growth is projected to decelerate due to domestic political instability and border tensions with Cambodia.

My dog ate my homework in grade 5 too.

21 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

Have you been to Laos or Myanmar (Burma)?

Yes, many times since the mid 1970s.

'Vietnam is poised to overtake Thailand in economic size, driven by significant state-led infrastructure investments."

I wonder how TAT will spin this?

Been going to Vietnam the last 3 Years, although my base is in Thailand, its a bit behind tourism wise but its catching up quick, the great advantage it has, is that its main tourist areas arent full of pissed up idiots causing mayhem, which is sadly now a major factor in most of Thailands major tourist destinations, anti social behaviour and drugs of all kinds, are now a major blight on Thailands tourism industry, the place has gone to the dogs in the last few years, no wonder more and more people are choosing Vietnam over Thailand these days

Well what with the quality tourist, visa red tape and treating the expats as second citizens what do they expect.. som num na.

On 1/6/2026 at 9:35 PM, ikke1959 said:

The result of mismanagement by the Governments of Thailand, the extreme expensive THB and the unnecessary border tensions... Thailand should work to make tourists feel welcome, instead of double prices and standards, renew many outdated laws, weaken the THB to improve the export and economy, educate people how to use their money and stop with too many holidays...And the tax money should be spend wise instead of many wasted ideas

Bish, bash, bosh.

If you think that Vietnam is somehow more welcoming of foreign visitors, I recommend a quick trip to Ho Chi Minh City. I can assure you the longest and most memorable part of your trip will be airport immigration at Tahn Son Nat, inbound and outbound.

Also how they allow taxi scammers to work freely from kiosks right outside the door from baggage claim.

Education, education, education…..

Thailand’s greed is gonna be Thailand’s downfall they double up on prices for long-term extension holders double pricing overcharging and the Tourist are realizing it as well as the experts that I’ve been here a long time they’re not on the other hand is less expensive less hassle in most experts they want to live hasslefree Thailand is shooting itself in the lead as always TIT

On 1/7/2026 at 7:53 AM, JimHuaHin said:

Maybe if the Thai military were not in control, Thailand would advance. But, alas. How long before Thailand becomes the poorest member of ASEAN?

That place is reserved by the Philippines, the US puppet state in ASEAN. It is already overtaken by Indonesia and Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos to follow. The trend is unmistakable.

19 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Bish, bash, bosh.

If you think that Vietnam is somehow more welcoming of foreign visitors, I recommend a quick trip to Ho Chi Minh City. I can assure you the longest and most memorable part of your trip will be airport immigration at Tahn Son Nat, inbound and outbound.

Also how they allow taxi scammers to work freely from kiosks right outside the door from baggage claim.

Just use grab for taxis there. It's so easy. Not really sure about your other complaint about immigration. Evisa is so easy and smooth as well. They are also going to have a new airport in Saigon.

21 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Bish, bash, bosh.

If you think that Vietnam is somehow more welcoming of foreign visitors, I recommend a quick trip to Ho Chi Minh City. I can assure you the longest and most memorable part of your trip will be airport immigration at Tahn Son Nat, inbound and outbound.

Also how they allow taxi scammers to work freely from kiosks right outside the door from baggage claim.

Vietnam is not relying on attracting the low class from the west as their engine for growth. They emphasize on education, infrastructure and high added value manufacturing. They are still at the beginning of the road and it will take time to catch up with countries like Malaysia. The top FDI countries in 2025 were all Asian with strong hi tech manufacturing.

28 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Bish, bash, bosh.

If you think that Vietnam is somehow more welcoming of foreign visitors, I recommend a quick trip to Ho Chi Minh City. I can assure you the longest and most memorable part of your trip will be airport immigration at Tahn Son Nat, inbound and outbound.

Also how they allow taxi scammers to work freely from kiosks right outside the door from baggage claim.

Been there 3 times, although i avoid the immigration queues in Ho Chi Minh by starting my trip in Phu Quoc, and go through the domestic lane, never had a problem with the Taxis, just use Grab or Bolt, theres plenty of scam Taxi drivers outside Thailands Airports too, its not unique to Vietnam

Thainess i.e Xenophobia doesn't help.

It does not help that Thailand is in the bottom 10 of some 130 countries in English proficiency, whereas nearly all young people in Vietnam can speak and read English.

Outside the major cities almost no Thais can understand English.

The Thai government ought to be ashamed of itself in this matter. They should appoint an education minister whose task it is to correct this.

They should also decree that all public signs and messages in Thai show the English translation. This would help.
Like it, or not, English is now the International Language, and if Thailand wants to compete on the international stage, they should get their act together.

Vietnam, China, Burkina Faso, Turkey ... intelligently-run dictatorships will always outpace incompetent pseudo-democracies.

8 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

Just use grab for taxis there. It's so easy. Not really sure about your other complaint about immigration. Evisa is so easy and smooth as well. They are also going to have a new airport in Saigon.

Yes, Grab is available. But that hasn't replaced bold-faced fleecing of the less aware visitor by theiving taxi touts. Thailand has stopped this.

The Vietnamese eVisa does not allow you to bypass the conga line. There's no official 'fast-track' entry system. You can buy an expedited arrival/departure service online, but this is is a meet and greet service and nothing to do with Vietnam immigration. For $30 and up, they walk you the 100 meters or so from the end of the immigration queue to the Wheelchair lane. Thailand's eGates and TDAC makes entry/exit a worst case 20-minute experience from jetway to kerbside, making the private meet and greet services largely redundant.

The new Long Thanh airport will open late 2027 at the earliest. Due to the total lack of supporting infrastructure, the best estimates for transit times to/from the airport and downtown HCMC is from 80 minutes to 4 hours at peak times.

19 hours ago, impulse said:

But they're not allowed to pay bribes. Which really limits opportunities in LOS.

Getting involved with the people who demand bribes scares away a lot of companies and investment. Once you pay one person off, you become part of a very dark system.