Proposed Constitution Clears Referendum With Comfortable Margin

[Jai Dee]

FTI Chairman confident economy will rebound after referendum

Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), Santi Vilassakdanont (สันติ วิลาสศักดานนท์) says he is confident that the economy will rebound and foreign direct investment will increase from now on.

Mr Santi forecasts a more stable political climate as the constitution referendum and the general election at the end of this year will help boost both Thai and foreign investor confidence. Other factors contributing to a better economy include the government spending of this year and the next, the increase in salaries of bureaucrats, as well as the ongoing depreciation of the baht.

Meanwhile, President of the Home Builder Association Sakda Kowwisut (ศักดา โคววิสุทธิ์) states that the real estate sector is likely to see an increase in investment this year if the government arranges the general election soon. He also suggests that the real estate businesses should prepare themselves for a higher demand in residences.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 August 2007

[sriracha john]

prompted me to correct your erroneous insinuation that it was only favored in 2 areas

cite please ??

I apologize for mixing up your post with mdeland's.

[Mid]

Thank-you

[hammered]

prompted me to correct your erroneous insinuation that it was only favored in 2 areas

cite please ??

I apologize for mixing up your post with mdeland's.

Oh are sunrise and mdeland the same person?

[sriracha john]

yes

[jbowman1993]

Im just a simple man. I live a simple life, working, raising a family, and trying to enjoy myself day by day. I love this country, I love my wife, her family, my job, and my place in the world.

I look at my life since the coup. It hasn't changed one single bit. I still do the same things, go to the same places, etc. People speak of my rights being eroded by a military dictatorship. If they have, I haven't noticed, not in my daily life. No one has told me what I can and cannot buy, can and cannot watch or read, etc. (again, in my daily life, perhaps yours is different)

I judge people by what they do and say. Long before the coup I judged Thaksin to be corrupt, calculating, vindictive, and callous. I was one of those who was happy when we was swept out, judging it to be a necessary evil. Since that time I have listened to what the current leaders have pledged to do, and what they have done.

They pledged to investigate the corruption of the previous regime. Did they? Yes. Did it result in indictiments against people? Yes

They pledged to form a constitution drafting committee, for the purpose of writing a constitution. Did they? Yes Did the produce a constitution? Yes Is it good? I can't say. I read the special section of the Bangkok Post, detailing the difference and similarities between the previous and the current constitution. It looks like a well thought out, sincere attempt to design a government. Whether that proves to be the case, only time will tell.

They pledged to conduct a referendum on they constitution. The first of its kind in this country's history. Did they? Yes The result? It passed.

They have pledged to hold free and fair elections by the end of the year. Did they? We will see. They have set a date for Dec. 16.

Many will call me naive, but I don't care. I gave up caring what other people think of me a long time ago. In my eyes, the military has done everything they set out to do. They seem to be doing it in an honest and transparent way. I have listened to Sonthi and the the PM speak, and I believe them to be of good character. Men that are honestly trying to right past wrongs, in the face of tremendous obstacles.

They have made mistakes, they have misspoke from time to time, but in terms of the big picture, they have held to their word, and done what they said they were going to do. Thats all I ask from my leaders. They haven't lied to me, they haven't misled me (to my knowledge), and I can live with that.

My life goes on much as it has the last several years. I'm blessed to live in this country, that has beauty, and grace, and wonder. I acknowledge the faults but I don't dwell on them constantly, for doing so would turn me bitter, and that is no way to go through life.

This afternoon Im going to go to the local orphage, and read to the children there. I think it makes a positive difference in my community to do this, and maybe it will benefit those kids in some way. Its a more productive use of my time, then anything else I could imagine doing.

Best,

JB

[Jai Dee]

Legislators consider organic laws of new Constitution

The National Legislative Assembly is scheduled to deliberate several organic laws under Thailand's recently drafted constitution on Wednesday, now that the charter has received public approval in Sunday's referendum.

The NLA is obliged to pass the organic laws of the constitution so that a general election can be held, tentatively, by December 23, as suggested by Election Commission chairman Aphichart Sukhakkhanond. The organic laws of the constitution slated for Wednesday's NLA session include the Political Party Act, an MP and Senatorial Election Act and an Election Commission Act.

The election date was earlier proposed for December 16 but, according to the polling agency chief, it might probably take a longer time for the organic laws to pass through the NLA and to make preparations for the race to parliament than earlier speculated.

Mr. Aphichart said he would certainly consult with Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont, after the prime minister returns from Malaysia, to set an appropriate date for the general election, which could possibly occur earlier than December 23, should the organic laws pass NLA approval sooner than expected.

The Election Commission has just forwarded to the Constitution Drafting Committee the results of Sunday's public referendum which came out in favour of the new charter.

Thailand's draft constitution won 14,727,407 votes or 57.81 per cent of eligible voters with 10,747,310 people or 42.19 per cent refusing to accept the charter in the first national referendum, according to an official result announced Monday by the Election Commission.

Source: TNA - 21 August 2007

[Plus]

It also has divested power from elected officials to the appointed judiciary. While there are good people in the judiciary- of course- we need only look back at the Thaksin era to see how easily many in that auspicious calling seek to please their perceived masters. The other group that has been empowered and which does NOT have a good record in this country (as in most developing countries) is the beaurocracy. And bear in mind that one of the military's first acts was to appoint members of the military to many of the state enterprises.

Judiciary's role has been limited to selecting politically independent bodies that are supposed to maintain the law and order among the politicians. Who else do you want to appoint NCCC? Politicians themselves? Politically biased Senate?

Half the senate is selected, boo hoo - but what's the purpose of the Senate in the first place? What's wrong with staffing the Senate with professionals? It's a check on legislation proposed by the government, someone has to be there who can say whether laws will work as professionals, not popularity seeking politicians.

One elected senator per province also means that local mafia bosses, godfathers and massage parlor tycoons will have harder time to make it into senate, that only people with sufficiently high public profile will be there. Not bad at all.

Third: minority- or coalition- governments have a hard time even getting much legislation accomplished.

The experience of the past six years showed that it's not such a bad thing. There was a number of frivoulous laws passed by Thaksin controlled parlament and compliant senate.

I don't see why Thai politicians should be allowed to write laws if they don't have any policies and ideological positions to begin with. Most Thai MPs are local pooyais with no interest in national affairs, they have no ideology and no political principles on a national scale. They just pick winning sides. Why would you entrust them with writing laws?

Since 1997 locally elected MPs are not supposed to be in the government, I think they should have taken it further and increased proportion of party list MPs - that would force politicians to argue ideology, not promise kickbacks.

Finally- whether or not one like Thaksin, he was the choice of a huge and more importantly- regionally defined segment of the population. These people had the leader of the party that they elected to represent and govern them, removed illegally.

He was illegally elected, illegaly removed, for the balance.

[Plus]

"Samphan Techa-athika, an academic at Khon Kaen University's humanities and social science faculty, said the ''no'' vote in Isan was a gesture of thanks to the local politicians.

Mr Samphan said Northeastern residents felt their well-being depended more on local politicians than state authorities. And so they did what they thought was in their best interests, he said.

Since most voters could not understand the wording or content of the charter, they could easily be persuaded to vote according to the wishes of the local political leaders, said Mr Samphan.

It was also clear from the vote that the majority of Northeastern voters rejected the draft charter because they were loyal supporters of the Thai Rak Thai group, and no change should be expected in the region's political landscape after the general election.

Former MPs from the region should emerge victorious in the polls and leave no room for new faces to spring any surprises, said Mr Samphan."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/21Aug2007_news08.php

On the other hand Bangkok based "intellectuals" believe that it was their campaign that won the Isan, that it was their victory.

[Mid]

Sonthi admits result lower than expected

August 21, 2007 : Last updated 07:42 pm

Junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin Monday conceded a lower-than-expected referendum outcome for the charter although he was satisfied with the vote.

"I previously expected a majority vote of 60 to 65 per cent but in a democracy, a majority of one vote indicates a passage of the charter," he said in reference to the referendum victory of 57.81 per cent.

Sonthi spoke in an interview aired by Channel 9 morning news programme as he was in Kuala Lumpur on an official visit.

The Nation

may I respectfully request that the Title of this thread is adjusted ???

[roietjimmy]

I look at my life since the coup. It hasn't changed one single bit. I still do the same things, go to the same places, etc. People speak of my rights being eroded by a military dictatorship. If they have, I haven't noticed, not in my daily life. No one has told me what I can and cannot buy, can and cannot watch or read, etc. (again, in my daily life, perhaps yours is different)

In my eyes, the military has done everything they set out to do. They seem to be doing it in an honest and transparent way. I have listened to Sonthi and the the PM speak, and I believe them to be of good character. Men that are honestly trying to right past wrongs, in the face of tremendous obstacles.

Best,

JB

Couldn't agree more. While being far from condoning military coups, I'm not sure there was a viable alternative at the time. My disappointment is that the TRT/Thaksin led gov't had for the first time in Thailand's democratic history the mandate and control in parliment to make meaningful change. Much to their shame they squandered this rare opportunity with their greed.

[sriracha john]

Sonthi admits result lower than expected

August 21, 2007 : Last updated 07:42 pm

Junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin Monday conceded a lower-than-expected referendum outcome for the charter although he was satisfied with the vote.

"I previously expected a majority vote of 60 to 65 per cent but in a democracy, a majority of one vote indicates a passage of the charter," he said in reference to the referendum victory of 57.81 per cent.

Sonthi spoke in an interview aired by Channel 9 morning news programme as he was in Kuala Lumpur on an official visit.

The Nation

may I respectfully request that the Title of this thread is adjusted ???

is it much different?

Proposed Constitution Clears Referendum With Satisfiable Margin?

[Jai Dee]

PMs Office Minister Thirapat is satisfied with voter turnout

Prime Minister’s Office Minister Thirapat Serirangsan (ธีรภัทร เสรีรังสรรค์) is satisfied with the voter turnout of the 2007 constitution referendum even though the figure is not as high as targeted. He says the number of voters was not as high as anticipated since it was Thailand’s first ever referendum.

Mr. Thirapat also comments on the close vote in the referendum on the constitution draft, saying a number of factors influenced people, especially in the Northeast, to disapprove the draft. He says some people may misunderstand the draft’s content and there are also a number of people who still support deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He personally views that Dr. Thaksin will have no chance to retain power in the country. Nevertheless, he says Thailand is moving toward reconciliation even though about 10 million Thais voted in the referendum.

Prime Minister’s Office Minister Thirapat says it would not be possible to transfer state officials who disapproved the new charter draft as transferring them would take the principle of governance and their qualifications into consideration.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 August 2007

[Mid]

it would appear the comfort level is an illusion .........................

[ColPyat]

is it much different?

Proposed Constitution Clears Referendum With Satisfiable Margin?

Maybe better would be:

Referendum leaves Thailand deeply divided

Analysis by Peter Janssen, dpa

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=120998

Quote:

"The problem is that after this result they (the military) are going to be very worried about the general election," said Chris Baker, a political analyst and co-author of Thaksin The Business of Politics in Thailand.

"If those who voted against the constitution were sending a protest against the junta and saying that they are going to vote for pro-Thaksin parties, then that is about 40 per cent of the constituency," noted Baker.

[cclub75]

The referendum shows one thing, for sure : nobody will have a clear and strong majority in the next general elections (in 3 month time, the balance of powers can't be dramatically shifted).

But the Junta did know this fact, since last september. This is why they pushed for a new constitution that will allow them to use this instability.

We could say that Thailand is going back to a form of "institutionalized instability".

Weak PM, weak government, who will fall in average one time per year. Bribes a few MPs, changes of coalition, secrets talking behind the scene... It's back to the future.

So much for the sect of believers that "everything will be okay after the general elections"...

It can only be worse.

[ColPyat]

The referendum shows one thing, for sure : nobody will have a clear and strong majority in the next general elections (in 3 month time, the balance of powers can't be dramatically shifted).

Since the referendum result i would not be so sure about that anymore.

The military has definitely tried to return the country to a weak coalition system in which no party is dominating, but with 40% "no" votes (and how many of the "yes" votes are hidden "no" votes who just voted so to get elections ASAP but support TRT stands to debate...) there is a fair chance that TRT offshoots such as Parang Prachachon might have a majority similar to the 2001 election and the annulled one.

[Mid]

Green = Yes

Red = No

Images created by Poakpong Pongsasanongkul

Prachatai.com

[Mid]

Thai government 'satisfied' with referendum victory

08-21-2007

The Thai government said Tuesday it was "satisfied" after the public approved a new army-backed constitution, but it admitted surprise at the number of people who voted against.

snip

The Anatolian Times

I repeat my appeal ...................

[Plus]

The junta persuaded some TRT factions to change sides but it was obvioulsy not enough for outright and complete victory.

There's no way of breaking down the established networks in Isan, the only solution is to bring their leaders on junta's side, and that means going after funding sources and putting a squeese on them. It also means giving them a choice.

If there are alternative parties to run for in Isan, there's a chance that MPs will consider switching as right now they can't expect to be in the next government.

I don't know how people can talk about ideological divide when TRT has commited ideological suicide by inviting Samak as a leader. It's an old fashioned battle for top and middle level control, not hearts and minds.

[hammered]

The referendum shows one thing, for sure : nobody will have a clear and strong majority in the next general elections (in 3 month time, the balance of powers can't be dramatically shifted).

Since the referendum result i would not be so sure about that anymore.

The military has definitely tried to return the country to a weak coalition system in which no party is dominating, but with 40% "no" votes (and how many of the "yes" votes are hidden "no" votes who just voted so to get elections ASAP but support TRT stands to debate...) there is a fair chance that TRT offshoots such as Parang Prachachon might have a majority similar to the 2001 election and the annulled one.

The TRT offshoots include PPP, the Matahcima alliance, Snohs mob, Suwat and Phinijs boys and Sonthayas wing of Chart Thai and there may be more. We probably need to wait and see where the sitting MPs and/or their proxies end up before we can make a guestimate. Then we need to look at who will work with who. It gets complicated and is made no easier by trying to translate the result of a national referendum into a prediction for a largely constituency based parliamentary election.

It may actually be easier to translate into what it could mean for the senatorial vote segment as we have a provincial breakdown.

I would guess, and it is no more than an uninformed guess that PPP may well be the largest party, but that is before we even know who is in the party and who the leader is. Things could change rapidly. I would also guess with a fair degree of confidence we will end up with a senate that will not be controlled by this group, which would be interesting.

By the way in the 2001 election according to the old CIA Fact Book TRT had 248 seats or 3 short of an outright majority until they swallowed a few other parties in effect.

[ColPyat]

By the way in the 2001 election according to the old CIA Fact Book TRT had 248 seats or 3 short of an outright majority until they swallowed a few other parties in effect.

Yes, and at the annulled election TRT would not have gotten absolute majority, and most definitely not in the planned elections that never happened because of the coup.

We will have to wait and see, of course, all i am saying is that TRT has a more than fair chance to be again the largest party, again.

[Plus]

I think the results are pretty clear - all exTRTs won the referendum. Some campaigned for and some campaigned against, but they all won in their areas. I think only in Buriram the army edged Newin to lose.

[Jai Dee]

The result of the referendum cannot indicate the result of the election

Chairman of the Council for Constitution Committee (CDC) Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri (ประสงค์ สุ่นศิริ) says that the result of the referendum in the northeastern provinces, which shows that the majority of the northeastern residents refused to accept the charter draft, cannot indicate that result of the election.

Squadron Leader Prasong views that the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government should study on why people do not accept this constitution draft.

Meanwhile, the Democrat Party proposed for amendment of the constitution right after the new government has been set up. Sqn Ldr Prasong remarks that it is still too early to talk about the amendment at this moment.

As for the election date, Sqn Ldr Prasong views that the consideration of the election date should be discussed after the organic laws have already been completed.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 21 August 2007

[Mid]

Thai government satisfied with constitution vote

Last Updated 21/08/2007, 17:29:47

The Thai government says it's satisfied after the public approved a new army-backed constitution, but it admitted surprise at the number of people who voted against.

About 57 percent of voters took part in Sunday's referendum, and nearly 58 percent cast their ballot in favour of the charter.

But both the margin of victory and the turnout were lower than the ruling junta had predicted.

In impoverished north-eastern Thailand, a stronghold of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, nearly 63 per cent of voters rejected the charter, highlighting a nation still split by deep political divisions.

Opponents say the text reduces the power of elected politicians and entrenches the role of the military and bureaucracy.

Declaring victory, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has vowed to hold elections by the year's end to restore democracy.

radioaustralia.net.au

quote satisfied unquote

[highdiver]

I found of the posts here as ridiculous. and that is an understatement.

posters who were posting predictions that the referendum will not go through are now finding excuses as to why this democratic vote is not such a sucess or trying to review the results as a "samll margin" comfortable margin" etc....

I looked at what happens in other countries

it seems that in most countries that have a democracy the win or loose is determined by a few percent.

why should thailand be different??

or is this thread just a pile of ecuses forthose who had wrong predictions??

[Mid]

as usual 'diver , you wouldn't know the truth if it rose up and bite you ,

please provide cites where members had wrong predictions ??

make it easy for you , I'm on record as to saying it would pass .

bring something of substance to the table .....................

[ColPyat]

I found of the posts here as ridiculous. and that is an understatement.

posters who were posting predictions that the referendum will not go through are now finding excuses as to why this democratic vote is not such a sucess or trying to review the results as a "samll margin" comfortable margin" etc....

I looked at what happens in other countries

it seems that in most countries that have a democracy the win or loose is determined by a few percent.

why should thailand be different??

or is this thread just a pile of ecuses forthose who had wrong predictions??

Eh, who please posted that the constitution will not be accepted?

[hammered]

By the way in the 2001 election according to the old CIA Fact Book TRT had 248 seats or 3 short of an outright majority until they swallowed a few other parties in effect.

Yes, and at the annulled election TRT would not have gotten absolute majority, and most definitely not in the planned elections that never happened because of the coup.

We will have to wait and see, of course, all i am saying is that TRT has a more than fair chance to be again the largest party, again.

The relative power of each of the factions or successor parties of TRT and who they announce they will deal with will be interesting. Will Mathcima and PPP end up going to seriously head to head in certain places or will there be an understanding of who will win where? I am actually not totally sure of where Matchima's real strength lies but seem to rememember it is more a central Thailand plus some lower north kind of group with a few Isaan supporters thrown in.

Certainly outside of Nakhon Ratchasima and maybe the urban constituencies of Ubon there dont look like many pickings to be had. Then again lets see where Chavalit ends up he still has a level of influence in the Isaan. The media all assume he will be in PPP with Samak, but how will a Prem man go down in PPP? Interesting to watch how the alliances end up going. TI am sure there will be some odd deals.

[hammered]

I found of the posts here as ridiculous. and that is an understatement.

posters who were posting predictions that the referendum will not go through are now finding excuses as to why this democratic vote is not such a sucess or trying to review the results as a "samll margin" comfortable margin" etc....

I looked at what happens in other countries

it seems that in most countries that have a democracy the win or loose is determined by a few percent.

why should thailand be different??

or is this thread just a pile of ecuses forthose who had wrong predictions??

Eh, who please posted that the constitution will not be accepted?

Well actually I said it would be very close and did make an arguement that if one were to take TRTs support claim of 14+ million it would go down, but I thought I at least implied that I was basing that on something I doubted, and I dont think I have been identiifed as the greatest Thaksin and UDD supporter or someone who has tried to say the no was a victory, which I actually dont believe. I dont think anyone else was arguing anywhere near my position on the closeness of the yes-no.