46 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

That is what I said, isn't it? But not what you previously said.

Of course it has a direct impact, because when the price of gold increases, the central bank holds more USD as foreign currency as a result. They do not need to sell it for it to have effect on currency trades.

If the gold price DIRECTLY influences the foreign exchange value of a currency, why have the FX values of the currencies with the largest gold reserves not gone through the roof?

Note that the United States with ALLEGEDLY the largest gold reserves of 8,000+ tons (perhaps largely hypothecated and loaned out?) has a falling currency.

China - their real gold reserves are doubtlessly far in excess of what is declared - should have a hugely appreciating yuan. Instead they are selling off their once largest-of-all dollar reserves, at least partially to support their currency (geopolitical reasons probable also).

Both Germany and France have very large gold reserves but their economies are crashing. (of course the euro is a crazy, doomed currency).

If merely holding dollars rather than selling them strengthens a currency, why is the BoJ, until recently the largest holder of dollars, now selling them off as fast as it can? Answer: to support the yen.

[AI, as it exists at the present time, lacks genuine intelligence. It cannot reason. What it does is SUMMARISE what it finds in sources it is programmed to use. Very useful, but not infallible. Must be employed with circumspection]

1 hour ago, CallumWK said:

That is what I said, isn't it? But not what you previously said.

Of course it has a direct impact, because when the price of gold increases, the central bank holds more USD as foreign currency as a result. They do not need to sell it for it to have effect on currency trades.

Further to my earlier response:

https://www.tastyfx.com/news/gold-in-the-forex-space-all-time-highs-and-correlations/

A bit out of date as regards the rapidly evolving gold price, but this site points out that a rising gold price (in common with other commodity prices) can have a positive effect on the Fx value of gold-exporting nations and a negative effect on gold-importing nations.

For example:

"AUD/USD and NZD/USD exhibit positive correlations with gold: 0.41 and 0.42

"USD/CHF and USD/JPY show inverse correlations with gold: -0.38 and -0.40"

This raises the question:

Is Thailand a net exporter of gold or a net importer?

28 minutes ago, ericbj said:

Further to my earlier response:

https://www.tastyfx.com/news/gold-in-the-forex-space-all-time-highs-and-correlations/

A bit out of date as regards the rapidly evolving gold price, but this site points out that a rising gold price (in common with other commodity prices) can have a positive effect on the Fx value of gold-exporting nations and a negative effect on gold-importing nations.

For example:

"AUD/USD and NZD/USD exhibit positive correlations with gold: 0.41 and 0.42

"USD/CHF and USD/JPY show inverse correlations with gold: -0.38 and -0.40"

This raises the question:

Is Thailand a net exporter of gold or a net importer?

This answers my question :

Thailand's gold EXPORTS are rising in value, thereby strengthening the baht:

nationthailand

Thailand’s Jan–Nov gold exports top 391bn baht, Commerce...

Commerce Ministry: Jan–Nov 2025 unwrought gold exports rose 13.2% to US$11.9bn (about 391.68bn baht), lifting gold’s share of total exports to 3.8%.

Domestic purchases of gold not destined for export will have a contrary tendency, by reducing exports.

But, as a store-of-value, domestic holdings, whether private or public, will increase economic resilience in turbulent times ahead, when paper and binary blips lose value.

On 1/13/2026 at 9:51 AM, ericbj said:

Note that the United States with ALLEGEDLY the largest gold reserves of 8,000+ tons (perhaps largely hypothecated and loaned out?) has a falling currency.

...

Both Germany and France have very large gold reserves but their economies are crashing. (of course the euro is a crazy, doomed currency).

US is printing money uncontrollably and keep raising their debt. Small wonder that USD is tanking against most major currencies. You just need to look at DXY to see that.

EU is taking much more conservative approach to this and that is why EUR is doing fine.

Last year the THB was actually losing some value against EUR but gaining significantly against USD. In my view it has more to do with the US deliberately lowering the value of USD and not with any BOT policy per se.

On 1/10/2026 at 3:02 PM, JustinTyme said:

I don't get to say this very often, but what the BOT / Government is doing is a very smart policy that will relieve what is essentially a book-keeping pressure on the Thai Baht to keep it artificially strong. Currencies should be strong because the economy is doing well and the balance of trade is favorable ... not because millions of USD are pumped into, flushed out of, pumped into, flushed out of the Thai system on a daily basis. By the way, to people who own gold, when the Thai Baht gets weaker, you have more money! Funds transferred into Thailand get a better exchange rate (more money). Thai export businesses do better via competitive pricing. Tourism benefits from a weaker Baht / better exchange rate. Let's chalk this up as a win for Thailand, for a refreshing change!

I’m a little confused by this suggestion. My understanding is that massive money laundering via gold trading using Thai baht, not USD, is the reason for the rise of the currency. This hurts the economy right now, not down the road when auntie decides to sell her gold necklace. Businesses are going under, lives are being ruined right now. The Thai economy will take years to recover, but only if measures are taken to stop the corruption. One disturbing thing I read in a Asian Times article is that foreign criminal, using their freshly cleaned money (thank you thai banks) are investing in energy and financial companies in Thailand , gaining controlling interest in some cases.

Online gold trading can significantly affect the baht, Vithai said. When gold prices surge, Thai investors tend to sell gold in large volumes. Gold shops then sell the gold in U.S. dollars and convert the proceeds back into baht, causing its value to rise.

He also said the new regulations will also help combat money laundering.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-thailand-plans-tighten-regulations-090414437.html