Residents across Iran are facing sleepless nights and rising anxiety as speculation grows that the United States could carry out military strikes.

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In cities around the country, some young people are closely monitoring aircraft and ship-tracking platforms. While some fear foreign intervention, others quietly hope outside pressure could shift the balance after more than 50 days of unrest and a violent crackdown on anti-establishment protests.

Expectations that Washington might intervene faded after US President Donald Trump appeared to pivot from earlier supportive rhetoric toward diplomatic engagement. He had previously encouraged demonstrators to “keep protesting” and said that “help is on the way”.

The human toll from the unrest remains disputed. The US-based rights group Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) says 7,007 people have been killed, with thousands of additional cases under review. Iranian authorities put the figure at 3,117.

UN experts, including special rapporteur Mai Sato, say internet restrictions and mass detentions make it impossible to verify the true scale of the crackdown.

A third round of US-Iran negotiations in Geneva ended this week without a final agreement, though officials signalled limited progress. The lack of a breakthrough has deepened uncertainty.

Some analysts warn that a collapse in talks could trigger wider conflict. Iranian leaders have previously suggested they would risk regional escalation rather than concede key demands. Others speculate that Tehran could adopt a confrontational posture if militarily challenged.

Concerns are compounded by continued domestic repression. Sato has warned of mounting pressure on human rights lawyers, along with ongoing arrests and surveillance, describing the period as one of the darkest for rights in recent years.

On pro-government social media, two narratives dominate. One expresses cautious optimism that negotiations could avert another war, recalling the eight-year Iran-Iraq conflict and more recent hostilities with Israel that left more than 1,200 people dead in Iran and 28 in Israel. The other frames any confrontation as inevitable.

State media have stepped up broadcasts highlighting missile capabilities, a common feature during heightened tensions.

Economic pressures are also mounting ahead of Nowruz, the Persian New Year. With US sanctions in place and inflation above 62%, markets are subdued. Traders report reduced foot traffic, and investors appear reluctant to make major commitments amid the uncertainty.

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 27 Feb 2026

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The US didn't lie this time. "Help" was on the way..