Iran holds the keys to the world’s most critical oil chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz has become the most dangerous shipping lane on the planet — and despite weeks of bombardment, Iran still retains the power to shut it down.

After two weeks of strikes by Israel and the United States, Tehran’s conventional forces have taken heavy losses. But its missile and drone arsenal continues to threaten the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of global oil normally flows.

The numbers underline the scale of the conflict. Iran has fired 836 ballistic missiles and more than 2,500 drones across the region in just two weeks, targeting sites from Israel to Gulf states including Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Tehran has even unveiled a new long-range weapon — the Seji ballistic missile — capable of travelling up to 2,000 kilometres.

Shipping slows as Iran flexes its leverage

Before the war, roughly 150 oil tankers passed through the strait every day. In the past week that number has dropped below 100, many linked to Chinese or Iranian trade.

Iran has already struck 16 commercial vessels and warned that ships attempting the crossing without approval could face attack. Even a single drone can ignite a tanker, and the low-cost Shahed drone — widely used in the war in Ukraine — can be launched from mobile platforms hundreds of kilometres away.

The result is a maritime chokehold. Insurance firms have slashed war-risk coverage, pushing premiums up by as much as 1,000%. Without insurance, many tankers simply cannot sail.

Military options carry serious risks

Washington is scrambling for solutions. One option under discussion is escorting tanker convoys through the strait — echoing Allied naval operations during the Battle of the Atlantic in the Second World War.

Another possibility involves seizing disputed islands — Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb — which Iran has controlled since 1971 and uses to monitor maritime traffic.

Both strategies carry major military and political risks. Meanwhile, Washington is urging European allies to deploy naval forces, with foreign ministers in Brussels debating whether to expand the EU’s Operation Aspides mission.

For now the strait remains partially open — but increasingly fragile. In the Gulf, the fear is simple: if Iran decides to close Hormuz completely, the global energy shock could dwarf anything seen since the 1973 oil crisis.

Iran retains strike capability in the Strait of Hormuz