Thailand could face soaring oil prices, export disruption and rising electricity costs if Yemen’s Houthi group follows through on threats to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key global shipping chokepoint. Analysts warn the move would tighten a vital trade route linking East and West, triggering immediate economic consequences. The disruption would likely push up fuel costs, delay shipments and increase the cost of living.

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The warning comes as the Houthis escalated their involvement in the Middle East conflict by launching missiles at Israel for the first time since the war began. The group has also signalled it may close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which around 12 percent of global oil and natural gas trade passes. The route is critical for vessels heading դեպի the Suez Canal towards Europe and the United States.

If the strait is shut, ships would be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding more than 6,000 nautical miles and delaying deliveries by 14 to 20 days. This would significantly increase global shipping costs and disrupt supply chains. Combined with Iran’s earlier closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the situation could effectively paralyse a major part of the global economy.

Analysts at Krungthai COMPASS and Krungsri Research say Thailand would face three main phases of impact. In the immediate term, diesel prices could rise above 41 baht per litre, following the 1.8 baht  set for 31 March, if global crude oil climbs over 120 US dollars per barrel. Higher transport costs would then push up consumer prices nationwide.

In the medium term, Thailand’s export sector could be hit hardest as freight costs surge and shipments are delayed. Container rates could double from around 3,500 US dollars to 7,000 US dollars, while goods worth more than 32 billion baht are already reported to be stranded in the logistics system. Prolonged disruption may also lead to shortages of key industrial inputs such as plastic resin and chemical fertiliser.

The Nation reported that electricity costs could rise later in 2026 due to Thailand’s reliance on imported liquefied natural gas. Shipping delays and higher global gas prices would likely feed into increased power tariffs. Farea Al-Muslimi of Chatham House described the escalation as the most serious yet, warning that economic infrastructure across the Gulf could become a target.

The government is being urged to seek alternative energy sources outside the Middle East to mitigate the risks of a potential double chokepoint scenario. With the crisis unfolding, officials and businesses face mounting pressure to adapt quickly as the economic impact begins to emerge.

Picture courtesy of The Nation

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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 31 Mar 2026

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File complaints with the US and Israeli Embassies.

They are the ones who started this mess.

I thought Thailand had negotiated a deal for passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz?

1 minute ago, nausea said:

I thought Thailand had negotiated a deal for passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz?

This is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, entrance to the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal, not the Strait of Hormuz, entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Unfortunately, the Saudis were left alone to confront the Houthis for much too long.

Some 8D chess the Führer is playing. Waiting to be educated on how this was the plan all along. Any MAGA willing to share wisdom?

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Closure, Impacting Thailand
Thailand leadership should understand that this is a direct reaction to the US bombing of Iran.

43 minutes ago, nausea said:

I thought Thailand had negotiated a deal for passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz?

The expensive stuff from Europe you buy in Farang Stores comes through the Suez and Red Sea. Shouldn't impact oil as Anutin negotiated transport through the Straits of Hormuz.

34 minutes ago, Stocky said:

This is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, entrance to the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal, not the Strait of Hormuz, entrance

39 minutes ago, Stocky said:

This is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, entrance to the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal, not the Strait of Hormuz, entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Ah, so these routs are sequential, and closure of one affects access to the other, meaning if either is closed it's going to affect supplies getting to Thailand?

49 minutes ago, nausea said:

I thought Thailand had negotiated a deal for passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz?

Maybe the thais paid the 2 million dollar fee to pass for a single ship .

2 minutes ago, connda said:

The expensive stuff from Europe you buy in Farang Stores comes through the Suez and Red Sea. Shouldn't impact oil as Anutin negotiated transport through the Straits of Hormuz.

Now I'm confused. Does potential closure of the Suez and Red Sea route affect oil supplies or not, given the deal over the Straits of Hormuz? Are these routes sequential or separate?

4 minutes ago, nausea said:

Ah, so these routs are sequential, and closure of one affects access to the other, meaning if either is closed it's going to affect supplies getting to Thailand?

Strait of Hormuz: Essential for the free passage of oil and gas for the eastern hemisphere that fuels their manufacturing and food production industries for both home consumption and global trade exports.

Bab El-Mandeb: Essential for the free passage of the majority of imports and exports between the eastern and western hemispheres.

The linked news article presents a rather parochial viewpoint that Thailand will be the only country in the world affected if these trade routes are shuttered.

25 minutes ago, nausea said:

Now I'm confused. Does potential closure of the Suez and Red Sea route affect oil supplies or not, given the deal over the Straits of Hormuz? Are these routes sequential or separate?

Not separate, as much of Saudi oil is lead through pipelines to the Red Sea.

I wonder if oil tankers should not be made dual-purpose, bringing oil to Europe and sailing back to the Middle-East bringing fresh water. I have no idea if this would be technically feasible but I suspect it would. The water wouldn't even need to be drinkable, as long as it was fresh water. Pouring it to be filtered through sand in order to replenish coastal aquifers in Arabia.

A west-bound tanker from Yanbu would be a Suezmax, limited in size due to the canal to the north. The much larger ULCC tanker east-bound out of Yanbu can transit the Bab to the south but is just a bigger target, same as it would be in Hormuz.

This is what happens when brain dead americans are allowed to vote and elect an incompetent crook like DJT who has gotten rich by screwing over the world and bowing to the Israelis who control the country.

By the looks of it, he will be gone before he finishes his term but by then it will be too late as we are reaching a point of no return.

When you see a hornet's nest, what do you think lives in it? It is a smart idea to trash it with a stick?

The Houthis are a de facto govt, only holding part of Yemeni territory, including its capital. The other Gulf countries embraced US bases (why?) and thus have abandoned Iran.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is not the govt , either, but are a very powerful force both politically and militarily.

I don't give two <deleted>s about Iran but I'm pleased to see the US and Israel getting some back. It's about time.

Closing Suez would be a very, very big deal. Maybe the world will learn what it means to be buddies with the US.

2 hours ago, unblocktheplanet said:

Closing Suez would be a very, very big deal. Maybe the world will learn what it means to be buddies with the US.

Are you suggesting being best buddies with the dumbbells who just triggered a global economic crisis isn't faith enough and we should blindly carry on with their invoking of WW3?

There is a golden and universal rule. Never, never be arrogant and underestimate others. Americans should learn a bit from this.