Russia’s military recruitment machine is running out of volunteers, raising fears the Kremlin may soon turn to forced mobilisation to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.

A new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War warns that Moscow’s attempts to rebuild its ranks — including a push to recruit drone specialists — are faltering as battlefield losses mount.

The result, analysts say, could be renewed compulsory call-ups across Russia.

Drone unit recruitment hits a wall

The warning follows criticism from Russian military bloggers who say the recruitment campaign for the country’s new Unmanned Systems Forces has effectively stalled.

One prominent war correspondent said potential recruits are refusing contracts because they fear being reassigned from drone roles to frontline infantry assault units.

Specialists trained to operate drones, he argued, should not be thrown into trench warfare — a sign of deeper dysfunction inside the Russian command structure.

Distrust of the defence ministry grows

Critics say the problem lies with the Russian Ministry of Defence itself.

According to pro-war bloggers, the military leadership has struggled to modernise its forces or integrate new technologies it does not fully understand.

That distrust has discouraged young recruits — especially students targeted by the Kremlin’s recruitment campaign launched in early 2026.

Opposition sources say the contracts offered to recruits contain no clear guarantees preventing redeployment to other units.

Cash incentives lose their pull

Moscow previously relied on massive signing bonuses to attract volunteers.

But by late 2025, that strategy had begun to fail. According to ISW analysts, recruitment levels fell below casualty rates for the first time since the full-scale war began in 2022.

That gap means Russia must either accept shrinking forces or find new ways to replenish them.

Mobilisation question returns

For now, senior officials insist there is no plan for a new draft. Former president Dmitry Medvedev recently said another mobilisation wave was unnecessary.

Yet analysts remain sceptical.

They believe the Kremlin is quietly preparing limited, incremental reserve call-ups — not to expand the army, but simply to replace the heavy losses Russia continues to suffer on the battlefield.

Russia struggles to recruit troops, may turn to forced mobilization — ISW

Russian companies are being ordered to hand over employees as potential recruits for the war in Ukraine, in the latest sign that the Kremlin is struggling to sustain troop numbers.

A regional decree forces businesses to nominate workers for military contracts as Russian losses continue to climb. Western estimates suggest Russian forces have recently been losing close to 1,000 soldiers a day — a rate that is pushing authorities to widen the recruitment net.

Businesses Told to Supply Soldiers

In the Ryazan Oblast southeast of Moscow, companies with more than 150 employees must submit at least two staff members as candidates for enlistment.

The directive, signed by regional governor Pavel Malkov, scales up with company size, meaning larger firms must provide more names before a September deadline.

Both private and state-owned companies fall under the order, marking a notable expansion of the Kremlin’s recruitment drive into the corporate sector.

“Voluntary” Service Under Growing Pressure

Officials insist that signing a military contract remains voluntary. Yet the decree references wartime regulations issued by President Vladimir Putin, raising questions about how freely workers can refuse.

Regional rules warn that organisations obstructing mobilisation measures could face fines of up to one million roubles. Analysts say the policy effectively shifts recruitment pressure onto employers.

War Effort Strains Russia’s Workforce

Moscow claims more than 420,000 people signed military contracts last year. But recruitment is reportedly slowing in major cities, forcing officials to search for new sources of manpower.

At the same time, the Kremlin is expanding the armed forces dramatically, targeting around 1.5 million active troops and more than 2.3 million personnel including support staff.

Economic Costs Begin to Bite

The push for soldiers is colliding with a mounting labour shortage across Russia.

Economists warn the country could face a deficit of up to 11 million workers by 2030 as the war drains manpower and younger workers disappear into the military.

Meanwhile defence spending continues to surge. Military outlays reached roughly 6.3 per cent of Russia’s GDP in 2025 — a level that underscores just how deeply the war is reshaping the country’s economy.

Putin forces Russian companies to nominate two employees for war

Cash, quotas and drones: Russia targets students

Russia is offering students lucrative financial packages to join drone units fighting in Ukraine, signalling an intensified push to feed manpower into one of the war’s most decisive technologies.

The recruitment drive comes as the conflict enters its fifth year and battlefield momentum remains slow and grinding. While the Vladimir Putin government insists it is not launching a full mobilisation, documents show universities and regional authorities are being drawn into the effort.

Universities Turn Into Recruitment Hubs

Several major institutions are actively encouraging students to sign up as drone operators, engineers and technical specialists.

Far Eastern Federal University is offering a striking package: a starting annual salary of roughly 5.5 million roubles, a 2.5 million rouble sign-on payment, monthly allowances and free accommodation.

Students are promised academic leave for at least a year and guaranteed tuition waivers when they return.

A New Battlefield Elite

The recruitment push reflects the growing importance of drones in the war.

Operators typically work behind the front line but control aircraft that hunt tanks, artillery and troop positions. Because of their strategic value, they are heavily targeted if their locations are discovered.

Russian billboards now depict drone operators wearing futuristic goggles under the slogan “the new indispensables” — a signal of how central the role has become.

Technical Students in the Crosshairs

Other institutions are following suit.

Moscow State University of Civil Engineering and Russian State Hydrometeorological University have published similar offers, with some packages promising more than 7 million roubles annually for drone specialists.

The focus on engineering and aeronautics students suggests Moscow is targeting technically trained recruits capable of operating complex systems.

Regional Quotas Raise Pressure

At the same time, regional authorities are tightening recruitment.

Ryazan Oblast governor Pavel Malkov has ordered companies to supply workers for military contracts, with quotas based on workforce size.

Firms employing more than 500 staff must provide at least five recruits.

War of Attrition Intensifies

Officials say more than 400,000 volunteers joined the Russian military last year, according to Dmitry Medvedev.

But the pivot toward universities and technical talent underlines a harsher reality: the drone war over Ukraine is escalating — and both sides are racing to secure the skilled operators who now shape the battlefield.

Russia woos students for its drone forces in Ukraine with large financial packages

Maybe if Putin volunteered, that would help.

Suicide has better odds

Debt to the Frontline: Claims Russia Targets Families’ Finances in New Recruitment Drive

Fresh allegations suggest Vladimir Putin’s war effort is turning to household debt as a recruitment lever, with financially vulnerable families reportedly being funnelled towards military service. Ukrainian intelligence claims the strategy widens the net beyond traditional conscription, raising new ethical and political questions.

If confirmed, it signals a shift from mobilisation to coercion by circumstance.

Debtors ‘Flagged’ for Military Lists

According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, regional authorities across Russia have been ordered to compile lists of “volunteers” drawn from those with unpaid housing and utility bills.

The scope is said to extend beyond individuals. Where debts are registered to women, husbands or adult relatives are reportedly added — effectively linking family finances to frontline risk.

Relief in Exchange for Service

The alleged incentive is blunt: enlist, and your debts are wiped. Ukrainian officials claim recruits from these categories are fast-tracked into contracts, prioritised over standard applicants.

For households under financial strain, the offer presents a stark calculation — immediate relief at the cost of potential deployment into an active war zone.

Students Drawn Into the Net

The recruitment push is also said to reach into universities. Reports indicate a directive for institutions to identify a quota of students for military contracts, with a focus on those struggling academically.

The offer includes academic leave and the promise of returning to studies later. Critics warn it risks converting educational vulnerability into a pipeline for enlistment.

Pressure Builds as War Drags On

Moscow has not publicly confirmed the measures. But the claims align with mounting pressure to sustain troop levels as the conflict grinds on.

For families, the implications are immediate. For the Kremlin, the stakes are strategic: how far the state is willing to go to maintain manpower — and at what social cost.

Putin unveils new conscription: Your wife’s debt could send you to the frontline