Russia's grinding offensive is delivering ever-smaller gains while costing Moscow dearly, US Vice President JD Vance has said, arguing that Ukraine's defensive strategy is shifting the balance of the war and could open the door to a negotiated settlement.

In an interview with The Times, Vance said Russian forces are paying an increasingly heavy price for every kilometre they capture, with battlefield momentum now working against the Kremlin rather than in its favour.

Russia’s Offensive Hits a Wall

Vance said the Kremlin has reached a point where further offensive operations are producing sharply diminishing returns.

"The Russians are in a place right now where the amount that they can get through continued offensive operations is vanishingly small—and getting close to zero," he said. He added that every stretch of territory captured is coming at a significant cost in troops and equipment.

Defence Strategy Shifts the Equation

The vice president argued that Ukraine's focus on defence has proved far more effective than launching costly assaults to reclaim occupied territory.

According to Vance, the Trump administration has encouraged Kyiv to remain "maximally defensive" while diplomatic efforts continue. He said that approach has allowed Ukrainian forces to exploit tactical advantages, insisting that defending fortified positions is easier than sustaining large-scale offensive operations.

Drones Change the Battlefield

Vance said modern warfare has fundamentally altered the conflict, with drones and constant surveillance making entrenched defensive positions more effective than sweeping counteroffensives.

He said he had long believed Ukraine would benefit more from wearing Russian forces down than attempting expensive, high-risk assaults across heavily defended front lines.

Peace Talks Gain Fresh Momentum

Vance suggested Russia's slowing advance could create the conditions needed for meaningful negotiations to end the war.

His comments come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced counteroffensive operations near Dobropillia and Pokrovsk in late 2025, with Ukrainian forces recapturing around 160 square kilometres in the Donetsk region.

The remarks also mark a notable contrast with Vance's earlier position. In April 2026, he publicly declared that the United States would end financial support for Ukraine, underscoring the continuing political debate in Washington over the long-term direction of US backing for Kyiv.

JD Vance praises Ukraine, says Russia's achievement 'getting close to zero'

Putin sets 2027 horizon as Kremlin stalls on Ukraine peace talks

Russia is prepared to keep the war in Ukraine grinding on until at least early 2027 rather than compromise at the negotiating table, according to a report by the Financial Times. The Kremlin is instead betting that Washington will eventually pressure Kyiv into making the concessions Moscow has so far refused to consider.

Moscow pins hopes on Washington

The Financial Times reports that Russian negotiators have told US counterparts the path to any peace deal runs through Washington, not Kyiv. The message is clear: the White House must persuade Ukraine to accept major concessions before the Kremlin will seriously engage.

One Moscow-based source involved in back-channel discussions described the Russian calculation bluntly, saying many in the Kremlin believe the United States will ultimately "give Ukraine" to Russia. According to the source, Moscow has shown no willingness to soften its own demands or signal any readiness to compromise.

No breakthrough before summer ends

Senior Ukrainian officials involved in the diplomatic process told the newspaper they do not expect US-mediated trilateral talks to resume before the end of the summer. Even then, expectations for progress remain low.

The report suggests Russia's negotiating position has barely shifted since the full-scale invasion began. Officials say the Kremlin continues to repeat its original objectives, leaving virtually no common ground for substantive negotiations.

Putin digs in despite battlefield pressure

The Financial Times' Moscow source believes meaningful peace talks are unlikely before February 2027 because President Vladimir Putin remains committed to achieving his maximum military and political goals.

Rather than being pushed towards compromise by Ukraine's expanding long-range strikes inside Russian territory, Putin has publicly hardened his rhetoric. He continues to insist Russia is winning the war and that its strategic objectives remain within reach.

High-stakes gamble risks prolonging conflict

The Kremlin's strategy places enormous weight on political developments in Washington while signalling little urgency to end the conflict. If Moscow continues to reject concessions and Kyiv refuses to accept Russian terms, the diplomatic deadlock could stretch well into next year and beyond.

For Ukraine, the prospect raises the likelihood of a prolonged war of attrition, with military pressure and international political calculations continuing to shape the battlefield long before any genuine peace negotiations begin.

Putin has clear deadline before he considers peace talks — FT