China tightens the screws on Russia as key projects stall

China is tightening its economic leverage over Russia, with major infrastructure and energy projects losing momentum as Beijing drives a harder bargain with an increasingly isolated Kremlin.

The latest signs point to a changing balance in one of the world's most closely watched strategic partnerships. While China continues to maintain ties with Moscow, analysts say it is increasingly dictating the terms of the relationship.

Pipeline Dream Hits a Wall

At the centre of the tension is the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, a flagship project designed to send up to 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to China each year.

Negotiations have stalled over pricing, with reports suggesting Beijing is demanding significantly lower rates. With Russian gas exports to Europe expected to decline further, Moscow's bargaining position has weakened, giving China greater influence over the talks.

Trade Pressure Builds

The squeeze extends beyond energy. Reports indicate Beijing has also slowed support for equipment and infrastructure linked to Russia's Northern Sea Route, another project Moscow views as strategically important.

Analysts argue the delays underline China's willingness to use its economic weight to secure more favourable terms rather than offer unconditional support to its neighbour.

Regional Players Sense Opportunity

Russia's growing dependence on China is also being watched closely across the former Soviet sphere. Countries including Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia have recently pursued policies that appear to place greater distance between themselves and Moscow.

Those moves suggest regional governments increasingly believe Russia has less capacity to dictate outcomes while its resources remain focused elsewhere.

Kremlin Faces Growing Dependence

Western sanctions and the continued impact of the war in Ukraine have left Russia increasingly reliant on Chinese trade and technology. Beijing remains a vital supplier of industrial components and electronics that help sustain Russia's economy and manufacturing base.

That dependence comes with growing costs. While China continues to present itself as a neutral actor, it has shown little sign of sacrificing its own commercial interests to support the Kremlin.

As economic pressure mounts and negotiations remain stalled, the relationship is evolving from one of strategic partnership into one defined by unequal leverage. For Moscow, the challenge is no longer simply finding allies—it is avoiding becoming overly dependent on the one it has left.

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